"Cuban" Missile Crisis 2022The Ukraine crisis and threats with nuclear war, I see as we are getting closer to the bottom.
There are many similarities with Cuban missile crisis in October 1962, month when market bottomed out.
To start accelerated run for BTC from that 20k accumulative range , funding rate should be way more high in negative(more shorts opened then longs), so V shape down to 16k-GOLDEN POCKET, is the way I see to become bullish again.
Dump to 16-17k range and third touch of bullish divergence on RSI
Btcusdlong
BTC and the key level of 25,200. How to make money?Hello, everyone! Today we’re going to break down two things: the probable key level for BTC this year, 25,200, and what you can expect from the market in general if you have a medium or long term strategy.
A short story to begin
The 25,200 level was formed in early August 2022, when everyone stopped talking about the bankruptcies of 3AC, Celsius and several other companies. You could consider the 25,200 level a fair price for a neutral market in the current world economic realities. Then we had a fall due to the aggravation of relations between China and Taiwan, a small increase due to the Ethereum Merge in September and the FTX/Alameda crisis, panic sellings and general apathy. From this moment the set of positions began. It lasted almost 2 months until January 9, 2023. Then a local bullish run to 25,200 began, with one stop at 20,000-21,000. And now we hit the 25,200 level again and no one knows what will happen next
THE MAIN PART
1. All of the collapses and bankruptcies of 2022 were a surprise to all players. Each new crash was a great surprise and forced all participants to actively rebalance their positions. The example is Jump Trading and its fiat balance that was ~50% at the time of the FTX crash, even though the normal fiat rate since the Terra/Luna crash was ~30%. In other words, even the biggest players were influenced by the market and depended on the situation.
2. There is every reason to believe that it was the big players who were the main contributors to the November-January position set. After the FTX collapse, the market reached the peak of fear, the only thing that could push the market down even more at that moment was Binance/Coinbase fall, or crypto ban in the USA. Considering how quickly Binance worked and how actively Coinbase was in the process of personnel reorganization, the probability of their fall was extremely low. Also, all regulators mostly blamed SBF and executive team FTX/Alameda; there were no ideas to ban crypto in the rhetoric of regulators. Spoiler: it was introduced later and partially in the form of a stacking ban for US users so the companies would not be cheeky and would think about what they were doing. In general, the risks and probability of a bigger crisis were very low and the big teams understood it very well, that is why they started to set positions.
3. Logically, it will be clear that the level of 25,200 is most likely the most favorable level for the large participants – the beneficiaries of the fall. The price near the level of 25,200 allows you to easily sell those positions that were not sold after the collapse of 3AC/Celsius and the fall of FTX. Which in turn will take some time. After that it is only left to figure out what to do with the bad positions from the time of the Terra/Luna fall, to correct the balance of assets and build a smooth strategy for the future.
OUR BETS
The 25,200 level is completely artificial and created to sell over margin longs from 16,000 - 17,000 and sell problematic positions from the 3AC/FTX times.
After selling positions at the current level, the market will go down to 20,000 - 21,700.
After that, within 3-4 months, we will get to 30,000 - 32,000.
We should expect some interesting price movements, namely long/short squeezes.
The big players have learned to work with the risk of bankruptcy and the risk of regulators' influence: Genesis and the SEC bans are the best examples of that. Besides, there are very few of these risks left and a skilled team of analysts will be able to keep track of them and come up with strategies to work on them.
Asian liquidity will be a growth driver.
Share with us your forecasts on BTC and tell us what topics you want to be analyzed by our team , and we will write about it.
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Bitcoin Bulls / Monthly ChartWhen Bitcoin is ready to enter a major correction, you will see all the Altcoins go through a major crash as soon as Bitcoin peaks.
This is just one signal to keep in mind.
When everything goes red, that's the signal.
But if some go red while everything else stays green, consolidation before the current move is resumed, in this case bullish .
and as you see on yearly chart btc started green so it is possible this month we see 31000 to 32000.
Thanks a lot for your support.
BTC/USD - BITCOIN - Great Buy OpportunityBitcoin hit strong resistance at $25,000 but with all the good news from Hong Kong, China it will break the resistance:
--> On June 1st, 2023, Hong Kong will officially make crypto purchase & sell, trading, fully legal for all of its citizens.
Entry: $24,650 - $24,700
Take Profit 1: $27,000
Take Profit 2: $29,000
Stop Loss: $23,000
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Bitcoin to continue rally?Bitcoin - 24h expiry - We look to Buy a break of 25222 (stop at 24622)
The bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart is positive for sentiment.
Posted a Double Top formation.
25200 has been pivotal.
A break of bespoke resistance at 25200, and the move higher is already underway.
Overnight prices dipped through the 23833 support but have rejected this move and remain supported going into this mornings European open.
Our profit targets will be 26722 and 26922
Resistance: 24500 / 25200 / 26000
Support: 24200 / 23570 / 23330
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BTCUSDT may head for next 4h resistance around 24450-24550So the step L1 shown in the graph was achieved as explained in the previous post. From the price action characteristics, it appears that the price is not content with being held back by this current 4h resistance 1 zone. I expect a small pull back max to the level shown by S2 step and then move higher on the L3 path. But it is possible that this S2 step might be very small.
Bitcoin Quick Trade Long is safeBitcoin Trade is around the 24.5K to 25.5K range and my analysis said BTC goes upward
Crypto News Sentiment = Negative
U.S Fed Side in this month = Neutral
Crypto Market Sentiment= Undienet Or Bearish
U.S market = breaks bear trend and moves uptrends
Dollar Index = Falling Fakeout
This All things my analysis drives me to is time for the long and overall market trend is still bearish
BTCUSDT : Is +130% Likely ? Fractals😨 Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉
In today's analysis, I take a look at a fractal that played out on Bitcoin from 2018 - 2019 over a few months. Fractals can be very helpful to give an idea how the price action behaves after certain trends, which is where trend lines become especially useful in conjunction with fractal strategy. I think the chart is self explanatory, but feel free to pop me questions in the comments section.
I believe there is an important balance between trend line analysis / chart analysis, and technical indicator analysis. I find that trend analysis ( trend lines, support zone and resistance zone ) is really helpful for longer term, whilst technical indicators can be very useful for the shorter term. Important to note that today's analysis is focused on near term, in other words not exceeding 3 months. According to my technical analysis on BTC yesterday, I expect the price to correct for the immediate term.
Yesterday, we discussed my two favorite technical indicators : the Phoenix Ascending and Bollinger Bands . Together, they point to harsh short term selling pressure. Bears have taken control for the immediate term, and according to the BBands, 19K is a next likely stop for the short term.
See more details below:
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BITCOIN UPDATE: WHAT IS THE TRENDThe question of BTC was if it could surpass the crucial 24K level, which marks the difference for a new bull market.
So far, BTC has not yet confirmed the 24K, which means that the trend still looking for key action and it can stay for some time stable before a new breakout.
From a long-term perspective, a BTC value above 18K is seen as positive , and 20K is important for the trade view that BTC should hold it.
As for the current trend, there is a good chance that the volume activity can have a new volume in the range between 21,400 and 21,700. This range is considered a volume zone where BTC can have some gains. IF BTC is not able to hold this zone, then it should, at last, holds the 20200 USD as the most important zone.
BTC for a low time frame BTC is still in a breakdown trend from the important key level of 24K, but it means not that it's broken into a confirmed downtrend as there is a good chance BTC will return to up 23K.
Markets change with time, and it's important to stay updated with last trends in the price action of BTC.
Updated longterm BTC chart: The road to 1 million.I am a BTC bull, but I see far too many overly optimistic price projections on tradingview.
They seem to draw an exponential channel, instead of the current one, that is curved.
While of course it can be that BTC goes out of the current channel, and bursts through the upper resistance, thus reverting back to its original exponential trend,
I like to be more conservative. Because as of now, there is still no reason to believe that BTC will do so, only because it has pumped now already 6 months earlier than 4 years ago.
This could just mean that we also reach the peak 6 months earlier.
The fundamental price drivers will remain the halvings and mainstream adoption.
We can also clearly see that the factors between the subsequent peaks is diminishing every time.
From x38 to x16 and now probably to around x6 and so on.
It cannot just continue to do the same increases again and again, then we would have prices of 100 million USD by 2025 or some insane stuff like that.
That is not very scientific but sensationalist, and we should remain realistic here, even if that means being more conservative. Conservative with 1.3 million in 2030 LOL.
Try telling that someone in the stockmarket hehehe!
Anyways, there is indeed the chance that BTC leaves this channel and creates a faster rising one, but the future datapoints are not here yet, so we must use
the past points for extrapolation.
But no matter what happens, I am convinced that BTC mainstream adoption WILL happen. It's not an "if" question, but a "when" question.