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Btcusdlong

BTC Long term Vision! Bulltrap alert!!What Makes Bull Traps Happen? Wishful Thinking Bull traps can emerge after a market downturn appears to have been exhausted. In the wake of steep declines, there’s often clamoring among investors to grab an early seat for the ride back up, get in at what appears to be a bargain price, and/or pick a bottom. These initial buying spurts may push prices above certain chart levels, and these “breakouts” can trigger more buying. But such breakouts may actually be false signals, and the price soon resumes a downward path. So, what is a bull trap? A bull trap fools some traders into thinking a market or an individual stock price is done falling and that it’s a good time to buy. But then it turns out it’s not a good time, because the price soon resumes its descent, catching buyers in a money-losing trap. In many ways, it’s the opposite of a “bear trap,” which can fool traders into selling out too soon in the midst of a bull market. Here, we can go and print 25k..even 30kish..still I'd say it is going to be a bull trap! I also see the overall market conditions and it doesn't seem good. Do you agree or disagree?! Comment down below!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by The3eyedFrog
2
BTC Up long termIf we analyze the complete Chart all Times, Yuo can See you something , practically in all falls all of then 100%, when the price reaches approximately 23.60%, it recovers to once again recover what was lost (100%) and eventually make a new historical maximum at a : 341.40% of the original price, as this has been repeated several times and precisely now the price borders the : "23.60%" of the last upward trend, So now remember that this is only an analysis taking into the all patterns and long-term behavior of this particular instrument BTC based on an index of probabilities taking the past Only. So in this case, the price will have to recover again and eventually make a new all-time high at approximately : 341.40% of the last high.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ManuelRodriguez
2
The Bitcoin WarningThis is a daily chart of Bitcoin with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud is one of the best indicators for detecting trend reversals. When a candle breaks above the cloud from below, it is often considered a bullish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. Similarly, when a candle breaks below the cloud from above, it is often considered a bearish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. The shaded area that constitutes the cloud acts as support when price enters from above and resistance when price enters from below. Finishing above or below the cloud is considered "piercing" the cloud. The most valid piercings occur on strong volume and with strong oscillator momentum. As you can see in the chart below, each time Bitcoin tried to pierce the cloud, it failed and long upper wicks formed showing that sellers were in control. The bearish marubozu that occurred on Friday, August 17th confirmed that the Ichimoku Cloud continues to act as resistance. This forced me to take profit and sell the Bitcoin position that I acquired at the June lows. Now the situation is precarious because Bitcoin's price is trapped under the Ichimoku Cloud and we are heading into a time of the year when Bitcoin typically underperforms. On average, Bitcoin falls about 5% in September. See the chart below. Source: bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com Bitcoin is still trading below its log growth curve. So if one believes the log growth curve is valid, then Bitcoin remains very cheap. See below chart of Bitcoin's log growth curve. I remain generally bullish on Bitcoin over the long term because I do believe that its log growth curve has validity. With this said, during September, I will be keeping a close eye for signs of a bottom forming. How do I know when a bottom is forming? In short, I look for bullish daily candlestick formations that occur while the Stochastic RSI still has momentum down, and after panic and capitulation have completed . This signals to me that buyers are starting to take control again. You can see my thought process in the chart below. As you can see in the charts, the candlesticks were telling me that strong hands were buying on June 30th (El Salvador announced it was accumulating Bitcoin), and the day before the Fed meeting in July (someone knew something ahead of that meeting). As you can see below, Bitcoin rallied 20% from trough to peak following its last buy signal. Now that Bitcoin has broken below the Ichimoku Cloud, how far might it fall? Well if the June low fails to hold as support, we can look at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) for an indication of how far Bitcoin could realistically fall until it finds significant support. That level is roughly around $13,000, or 2019 peak levels. Although I believe that blockchain technology is absolutely the future, the inherent problem for Bitcoin is that it is an intangible virtual asset with no authority that guarantees its value. Therefore, whenever there is fear in the market, it will always sell off dramatically as market participants flee risk. One should therefore never enter a position in Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency without being able to tolerate complete loss. With that said, here are some "hacks" you can use to extrapolate when the value of Bitcoin may go up. 1. Check the U.S. dollar index (DXY) chart. In the chart above, I added a correlation indicator to monitor the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar index. As you can see, there is a quite negative correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar index on the weekly chart, and it is apparently statistically significant. In this case, I would want to avoid Bitcoin when the dollar index is showing signs of strength. You can see in the chart above that when the dollar index started blasting off over the past several days, Bitcoin started tanking. As long as this strong negative correlation exists between the two assets, you can view going long in one asset as effectively shorting the other. Why does this negative correlation exist mathematically? Well since Bitcoin's value is measured in dollars (BTC/USD) when the dollar strengthens, this has effect of the denominator in the BTC/USD fraction increasing. When the denominator increases in a fraction, the result is a lower number. Thus, Bitcoin's value as measured against the US dollar (BTC/USD) generally drops when the value of the US dollar increases. With that said, check out this yearly chart of the dollar index... As the chart above shows, the dollar index appears to actually be breaking out of a yearly bull flag and breaking above the yearly EMA ribbon for the first time ever. If true, while this may have many other economic consequences, what might this chart say about Bitcoin's value over the years to come? 2. Money Supply Below is a chart of the U.S. Money Supply (M2SL) within a regression channel. This regression channel shows how much above or below the mean U.S. money supply currently is at. Looking at the regression channel I would reasonably conclude that the Federal Reserve is trying to bring the money supply back to its mean (the red line in the below chart). The Fed can achieve this in two ways: by actively reducing the money supply until its reaches then mean or by keeping the money supply generally static over a period of time long enough for the mean to reach the current level. Both of these outcomes are generally bad for Bitcoin because no increase in money supply results in a strengthened dollar. As noted above, by strengthening the dollar, the denominator that measures Bitcoin's value is "strengthening", thus resulting in a lower Bitcoin value relative to the dollar. To put it more simply, fewer dollars should be needed to buy a Bitcoin when the dollar strengthens. The Fed is also increasing interest rates. Interest rate hikes reduce bank-created money because borrowing decreases. (Credit creates the most amount of money in our economy). Therefore, interest rates generally correlate negatively to Bitcoin as well. With this said, how might the below chart, which shows an explosive rate of change on interest rates, affect Bitcoin's value? This is the quarterly rate of change on the U.S. 2-year treasury yields. (Yes, the rate of change is literally off the chart) 3. This part is a bit dense, but the basic point is that the Federal Reserve also influences the price of Bitcoin via its reverse repurchase agreement operations. As the chart below shows, the monthly rate of change in the amount of dollars the Fed was pulling out of the economy via reverse repurchase agreements right before Bitcoin crashed in 2021 is so stratospheric that it is pretty much the only thing visible on the chart. This reflects both the fact that the Fed was vacuuming up extraordinary amounts of cash (trillions) and that the Fed's use of the reverse repurchase agreements in this manner is unprecedented. In essence, the Federal Reserve's use of reverse repurchase agreements was obfuscating the fact that it was tapering its liquidity support for the economy while still adding assets to its balance sheet (WALCL). The writing was on the wall for Bitcoin and other risk assets that were beneficiaries of the extreme levels of liquidity that characterized monetary easing. There are many other charts and economic indicators that one can analyze to try to predict where the price of Bitcoin may go. With that said, one thing is absolutely certain: Although blockchain technology will proliferate in the future, Bitcoin and blockchain technology have only existed for a tiny blip in the history of the financial markets. This blip was during the era of limitless quantitative easing. In face of persistent inflation, that era has definitively ended.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
37
BITCOIN 15 MIN BREAKDOWNHELLO AGAIN TRADERS, HERE IS MY MORNING BREAKDOWN Currently I see three interesting levels for us, as I wrote yesterday evening again during the Asian session there was a bigger move which however caused the market to open itself. When I look at the overnight volumes there were substantial orders around $16560 from where bitcoin fell, its first stop was around $16419 and then made a short term bottom around $16100 - $16175. Then the last orders where I see a support zone are at $15800. In between these zones as I marked in the chart on the right you can see that there is a gap of trading volume so Bitcoin just flew through there last night but the markets tend to fill these gaps back in and take orders from the top where there is liquidity. Therefore, I would say today we will go back to the $16419 level and that is where we will decide if we have made a bottom for a short-term uptrend in December at where we are currently or from $16419 to $16560 we will go into a short again. There will be very little volume in the London session at the moment, I can only go long when we get back to $16160 - $16180 from there we will bounce towards the last volume at $16419 and above, although the dollar fell on the London opening and Bitcoin didn't get much traction.
Long
by Crypto-Frantisek
5
Adding onto my BTC position from 17,350 10x leverageI am doubling my position on my trade from yesterday. My current entry price is 17,057 USDT. We'v now broken down to another major support area, but this time we see the 4-hour chart start to consolidate in many different ways. Our CM_Williams_Vix_Fix Finds Market Bottoms is showing a heavy floor. Our momentum indicators, TSI and MACD, are starting to flatten for a convergence on our 1-hour chart *chart shown is 4-hour* I may add onto this position as time goes on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by WatsonsView
5