Bitcoin Fools"The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible."
-Bernard Baruch
If Bitcoin were around 100 years ago Baruch would have been more broad with his quote. Nevertheless it is apt to all markets.
Before the last selloff there was much buzz on the Discords about a big move coming in Bitcoin. I do not subscribe to any of these Discords but I hear second hand. One trader showed me the BTCUSDSHORTS chart. This chart tracks the open interest in short positions on Bitfinex. The trader that sent me this gem had an interpretation that as the shorts were drying up... it meant that Bitcoin was going to go long. I found their reasoning to be completely backwards. Just to put my money where my mouth was; I did go short a week before. Being a contrarian paid off; as it does in the long run for any market.
As far as predictive indicators of market timing with Bitcoin I would have to cite the relationship between BTCUSDSHORTS and the underlying price as the most useful at the present time. Nearly every time that shorts were at a major high, meaning the most people were betting on a bearish move, the market instead rallied or continued to consolidate. I would chalk this phenomenon up to either the wisdom of Baruch, traders naturally chasing the market, or perhaps both as a unifying theory. The bottom line is; the market will not let the most traders have profits... especially now when the bubble of 2017 is long past.
In the future and until it proves otherwise this comparison will serve as a valuable indicator to traders and I highly recommend it be integrated into any long term to swing trading analysis. My present interpretation is that the opportunity for going short is much less attractive. A "record" number of short positions are open at the moment. Shorting Bitcoin is the most crowded trade. Even if Bitcoin goes continues bearish the reward does not justify the risk.
BTCUSDSHORTS
BTCUSD - MOVE TO UPSIDE EXPECTEDBTCUSD has retraced to Fibonacci retracement
level of 0.236 (3684.46). This does look like a
good place for the move up to around $4500. on
the other hand a move down could push price
down to around $3300 :(
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BTCUSD - THE REAL UPDATE :)BTCUSD seems to have completed this
Ending Diagonal. it is important to note that
the WAVE E does frequently shoot out.
As at no, it is hitting all the criteria for this.
our next target will be around the $5932 and
$6185.
Ultimately we will be looking higher to around
$8000 - $9600 in the next month or so.
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Short squeeze to $4240 or $4520**I was just about to click publish when the short squeeze beat me to it. This was the analysis:
Bitcoin sentiment and the weekly chart is bearish, however, Bitfinex shorts are rising and have fallen out of and retested a rising wedge which means we might have a short squeeze from here in the short term and a bounce to retest that pennant as resistance at around $4240.
The larger trendline resistance since $6k is now holding as support and we also have bullish divergence on the 4H money flow indicator (which includes both price and volume) so looking for a bounce since stochastic is also oversold.
I think btcusd will be testing new lows if we drop from $4240, which coincides with EMA50 as resistance but if we do manage to find support above $4240, I don't think we'll get a close above $4520, which coincides with our EMA100 resistance unless buying volume returns. You'll notice that buying volume has been gradually dropping after every bearish volume spike. We may find support at around $4150 if we do get to $4500 but better to see what happens closer to then.
This is the btcusdshorts rising wedge I was referring to:
Good luck and happy trading!
previous post:
Bitcoin - The Final Shoe DropsWe look to be setting up for one last drop on Bitcoin. Currently opening shorts up around the top of the smaller pennant around $3740. With plans to add to my short if we somehow break that and push towards the top of the larger pennant in play. Looking to see the support zone break below $3450 with targets in the $2900-3100 range to close our shorts and flip long.
There's a small chance we bart up, so don't go too crazy with leverage on the short, make sure to have stops in place if we break out of the larger pennant and hopefully our next update will be discussing the break upwards from $2900-3100.
elliott wave on shortsmay be doing TA on shorts for some of you guys is non-sense but to me is a very very good indicator of general sentiment direction. to be a profitable trader you should know the stream and swim on the river in opposite direction unless you will lose. so this the stream we are in bull market at BTCUSDSHORTS so we are still heading lower in BTCUSD. general trend analysis is working very well on shorts. it seems we are completing wave 4 and entering wave 5 take look at chart.doing a FIB Retracement tool on every green candle, if our corrections is still above the 61.8% of fib level we respect the trend. also daily rsi has room to go up but on the other hand also price daily rsi has room to go up. this is a contradiction. but we should always bear in mind that price action is more important than indicators because rsi can simple head lower again it is just representing price in other way and it is very useful on distinguishing bearish and bullish divergences. so after all strategy is so clear. we should not do anything until btc movement. if we fall below 4300 on finex with volume we should go short. if we go above 4720 on finex and set a higher high with volume we should go long. but i suggest not long in this trend because it is hard to know how much power that bears have in this very very bearish market. i suggest going long if and only if we break 5000 level with huge volume because it is a big phsycological level and also it is last big daily red candles 61.8 fib level.
BTC - The Next Leg DownRight now, this is setting up exactly the same as our call to short at $5500. Right now, I'm targeting somewhere between $3600-$4000 as the profit taking area on the short. But it's the exact same setup with the bear flag/pennant coming out of the drop. It's possible we bart back up, break $4600 with conviction and volume and I'd stop out of the short.
BTCUSD - UPDATE - IS IT ABOUT TO START??????this has started to move now.
expecting this to hit resistance soon.
if it breaks that i would expect it to move even higher.
could this be the start of another 2 month of bull power??
lets wait and see
SEE MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS ALSO
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BTCUSD Shorts losing confidenceHi Guys, a couple of weeks ago we published an idea about the set up on the short interest and the chart working into a wedge that we predicted would eventually break down. I think we are seeing this today with a big move breaking down through the wedge triangle and heading to the 200 sma on the one day chart. A breach of the 200 should be a great catalyst for a reasonably big move upwards on BTC. If the 20 day sma would now move up through the 50 day sma on the BTCUSD chart on the left it could potentially be a huge indicator that this bear market has ended and the 20 day may remain up above the 50 now for the duration of the next bull run.
BTC is working its wat through the numerous wedge formations (depending on timeframes etc.) It is poised now to break one after the other to the upside and has consistently made lower highs throughout the past few weeks. Now we just need to see some kind of an impulse to kick off. Likely a big move will breakdown but will be another great indication of higher prices to come.
BTCUSD a short outlookBitcoin shorts are at or close to an all time high, something like 62% to the short side now.
datamish.com
I'm wondering if most are on the short side of the trade and thinking BTCUSD is set for a downsilde? Seems to be the popular sentiment right now. The only thing is that it may catch many traders off guard if there is a sudden sentiment reversal.
It also looks like we have experienced a similar technical pattern in the past and this was just before bitcoin started a massive run up.
Just another perspective to consider.The chart is looking like we will soon find out.
BTCUSD - COMING WEEK UPDATEExpected:
1st of all i would like to say that i am not trading BTC
at the moment. but for those brave enough, here you
go
i am expecting this to go up and break the resistance line
towards the next blue line
also Stoch RSI has is recovering from the oversold area
so some buys seems to be coming in
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The moment of reckoning is upon us for Bitcoin ShortsWe are entering into an extreme dangerous zone for shorts. Whenever BTCUSDLONGS v SHORTS gets under 1 (more shorts than longs) the chance of a major short squeeze grows rapidly. When the ratio gets to between .6 to .8 the squeeze is virtually imminent, and it is often violent.
We are currently at .62, which is effectively the all time low.
The reason why this occurs:
1. Retail traders are "herding" into the position (major behavioral bias). They are generally weaker hands and will close at the first sign of trouble
2. Bears run out of juice. There is nobody left to sell