BITCOIN is right on track and even stronger than previous CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has experienced a sharp drop over the past 2 weeks, causing a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which as explained in a previous analysis, this has only happened once during a Bull Cycle.
As today's idea shows though, what caused massive panic and liquidations recently, can be seen as merely a technical attempt of the market to re-adjust and harmonize what was a very aggressive bull run up until March, towards the mean, relative to past Cycles.
More specifically in the last 2 Cycles, as you can see, 630 days after the Cycle bottom, Bitcoin was trading just below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, while on the current Cycle the recent drop took place just over it. This means that the current bull run came closer to the trend of the last two, but remains more aggressive.
As a result, we expect BTC to resume the rally and continue on a more aggressive tone than in the past and by early 2025 break above 100k and possibly by next Summer reach the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level that was achieved during all past Cycles.
So what do you think? Has this BTC Cycle been normalized after the recent drop and is now ready to resume the uptrend? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Amazing 'Golden Ratio' correlation showing the way!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately, basically it has paused for the past 5 months the uptrend that started in late 2022. We have discovered a remarkable correlation with Gold (XAUUSD) and Russell 2000 (RUT) in the form of the GOLD/RUT ratio (blue trend-line). This correlation, which is a negative one (i.e. when BTC rises the GOLD/RUT ratio falls and vice versa), is present on a cyclical basis.
This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common. That is the following:
When the GOLD/RUT ratio peaks and starts falling by forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin tends to start its parabolic rally (green arc) of the Bull Cycle, above previous All Time Highs. This usually takes place a little before the Halving.
Right now it appears that it happened on the last Halving (mid April), assuming we see the ratio forming Lower Highs from now on. If it does, BTC will most likely start the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle. The Sine Waves that track the GOLD/RUT peak, suggest that indeed the April High may have been the new peak. It remains to be seen if Lower Highs will be formed.
What do you think will happen? Can this be BTC's "Golden ratio" that reveals the parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN priced the new bottom. Strong evidence of new ATH ahead.With tensions and volatility continuing among the markets, we revisit a chart that we published almost 1 year ago (August 14, see chart below) when the market was again in a time of high volatility and was consolidating within a wide margin for a rather long period of time (April 17 2023 - August 21 2023):
Back then we stated that a huge rally was in the making and only one week later, the market delivered and BTC rose from 25k to +70k in a span of 6 months. It was the unique Bullish Cross on the 3W KTS indicator that only happens once in every Cycle that cemented our bullish projection.
BTC is now on a consolidation phase similar not only to the 2023 one (Apr - Aug) but also to the past Cycles that followed the KTS Bullish Cross. It is noticeable that there are two such consolidation phases in every Bull Cycle and currently we are inside the 2nd.
This is strong evidence suggesting that we are about to experience multiple green months in the coming quarters.
Do you agree or you feel the economic slowdown fears will prevail and break this structure? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this a BEAR or a BULL Cycle?? This is the last stand.Bitcoin just hit before the E.U. opening the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a Support level that has been intact for more than 1 year (since the week of March 13 2023). This is a test of Bear Cycle territory for BTC as during its past Cycles, this level was touched only after the market has started a new Bear Cycle, with the only exception being the week of June 21 2021.
The key difference then was even though the price hit and marginally broke below its 1W MA50, it never closed a 1W candle below it (the MA50) and that gave way to a new 5-month rally until the eventual Cycle Top.
This cross-Cycle analysis, shows just how strong and intact the 1W MA50 has been during all Bull Cycles. The market during its current strong 5-month consolidation since the March ATH, never really broke considerably higher than the previous Cycle's High (November 2021), so symmetrically BTC appears to be in a below-ATH-Resistance consolidation phase similar to November 2020, April 2017 and February 2013.
As a result, it becomes obvious that since the 1W MA50 broke (even marginally), the condition for the Bull Cycle to continue and give a new rally from here is for the price to avoid closing any 1W candles below the 1W MA50. If not, then expect just a dead-cat-bounce and then after diving below the 1W MA50 again, to turn it into a Resistance and trade below it for the rest of the new Bear Cycle.
So which of the two do you think it's going to be, a Bull or a Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Ultimate Cross-Cycle Comparison on 1 chart! DON'T MISS!On this special Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, we compare the current Cycle to all past ones by plotting one on top of the other. By classifying each Phase, we can see that all Cycles share some very strong characteristics.
More precisely, BTC appears to be currently approaching the end of the Break-out Phase (orange Rectangle). That gives way to the most aggressive part of the Cycle, its Parabolic Rally Phase (green Rectangle).
As you can see, this is where all 3 past Cycles took off, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle (black trend-line), the 2014 - 2017 Cycle (blue trend-line) and the 2011 - 2013 Cycle (orange trend-line), the latter of which is stretched in order to fit on the shared bottom of the others.
This chart doesn't technically show the Target value of the Cycle's top but rather serves as a useful benchmark to time this peak, in relation to the Tops of the previous 3 Cycles. As you see, this might be towards the end of October 2025, i.e. a full year into the new U.S. Presidency, which is aligned almost perfectly with historic market behavior.
So what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to enter a Parabolic Rally phase and if so, could it essentially be a full year of rallying activity ahead of us? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN has entered into early Parabolic Rally levels.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to close the month of July with a strong test-and-hold on its historic Parabolic Growth Channel, which is the zone that has signified its cyclical bottom and the recommended region to buy after a Bear Cycle.
This marks the 5th straight month of sideways trading and as this 1M chart shows, this is a behavioral pattern that normally takes place before BTC starts its most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle, the 'Parabolic Rally'.
What precedes this is of course the Accumulation Phase within the Parabolic Growth Channel. We are some months past this stage and based on the Time Cycles, the market has just entered the (green) region where the Parabolic Rally can start anytime.
Do you expect that to start as early as next month? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN on the most critical 1DMA50 test. Hard rally if it holdsBitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 19, on the most important 'break-and-pullback' re-test since October 11 2023!
That was the last time BTC re-tested the 1D MA50 as a Support after a recent break-out, following the April 14 2023 - September 11 2023 Bearish Leg of the 21-month Channel Up that started back at the bottom of the last Bear Cycle in November 2022.
Despite marginally breaking below it on the re-test, it managed to sustain candle closings above it and that kickstarted the October 2023 - March 2024 rally. As a result, we expect a similar rally to start if the same closing conditions hold, which will technically be the Channel's new Bullish Leg that may finally hit the $100k psychological benchmark. It has to be said also, that next week's Fed Rate Decision or at least a hint towards the September meeting will undoubtedly have a huge impact on it.
But what do you think? Will the 1D MA50 hold again and initiate that rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin BTCUSD Bullish Side Money heist PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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BITCOIN Global liquidity sending a major rally signal.This is not the first time we associate Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with our unique Global Liquidity (GL) metric (orange trend-line) and it will certainly not be the last. We are just making a highly critical update as GL is rebounding after April's Higher Low.
At the same time, BTC is testing for the 5th month its ATH trend-line (has technically broken it, so we can't be talking about a rejection) and every time these two parameters have taken place in past Cycles, the price started the parabolic rally phase. As the Sine Waves very illustratively shows us, this happens every 1400 days and on August we complete this condition.
Can this be the final warning to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bull Flag ready to do its job.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is approaching the top of the 4-month Bull Flag pattern and is technically ready to break above it. When it does, expect a parabolic break-out as this will be a bullish structure within a long-term Channel Up (blue) breaking above the All Time High (ATH) trend-line.
** Bull Flags are a norm **
Similar Bull Flags that broke above the exact same level in previous Bull Cycles, started exactly what we expect: the Cycle's Parabolic Rally. In fact, you can see on this 1W chart that the Channel Up patterns that started at Cycle bottoms and reached the ATH, all had a number of Bull Flag structures similar to the current one, that were nothing more than short-term Channel Downs. And those Channel Down patterns are what usually scare short-term investors/ traders away and force them into making hasty decisions.
** Sine Waves and Cycle's Top **
In our opinion the recent correction changes nothing and as the chart shows, BTC is well within its Bull Cycle. The Sine Waves indicated that we may be another 11-12 months before the Cycle's Top. Since the previous Cycle Top 'only' reached the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the Fib Channel Up, we could expect this time to go as high as the 0.5 Fib (deceleration), possibly the Theory of Diminishing Returns kicking in. Still the Target may be at $200000 at least.
So what do you think? Is this just a Bull Flag ready to do its job and push Bitcoin to 100k and beyond? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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How to make money with Bitcoin? This time it is a decline.
From the trend point of view, Bitcoin will continue to fall. There is currently pressure at around 62,000. This round of decline is expected to go down to 60,500-60,000. So shorting Bitcoin can make money.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P TVC:DXY OANDA:XAUUSD NYMEX:WTI1! FX:GBPUSD
Oversold Bitcoin. It will continue to rebound.
I think there is also a trend of rebound after the decline of Bitcoin. The current price is around 61,000. The target is in the range of 62,100-63,000. Friends who like to trade cryptocurrencies can choose to buy as the main position.
INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin rebounds by about 500-800 points in the short term.
64500 is a good position for shorting.
You can buy in small batches at present. Remember not to scalp. The risk is very high and uncontrollable.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P INDEX:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
BITCOIN above the 1D MA50 after 1 month!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time after 1 month (since June 18). It even closed the 1D candle above it, showcasing enormous buying pressure on the short-term.
That is within the 4-month Channel Down pattern, whose 3rd Bullish Leg started after bottoming (Lower Low) on July 05. The 1st Bullish Leg was +24.30%, the second was +27.30% (3% higher), so assuming this is a progression, we can expect the current Bullish Leg to be +30.30%.
We are aiming for $69500, slightly below the +30.30% mark. We will have a long-term bullish confirmation once BTC breaks above March's Resistance Zone.
Do you think it will? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN A 'game' of angles...This isn't the first time we post this chart on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the relevance that its Cyclical Angles have but it is an added step with its RSI and phases.
We are on the 1W time-frame where as you can see every Cycle has been so far approximately 10 degrees (°) less than the previous one from top to bottom. The 1st Cycle (2012 - 2013) was 54°, the 2nd (2015 - 2017) was 42° and the 3rd (2019 - 2021) was 30°. Based on this progressive sequence, we can expect the current one to top at around 20° from the bottom.
Even though the price is on a declining angle rate, the 1W RSI is remarkably stable. As you can see, every Bull Cycle is around 25°, so there is no reason to expect the current one to diverge from this. This way when the RSI tops, we will now when to sell and sit back with the profits until the next Bear Cycle bottom.
On top of all the above, we see that according to the Bull Cycle phases classification, Bitcoin is still within its Accumulation Phase (blue Rectangle), so we haven't yet seen its most aggressive part, the Take-off Phase (orange).
But what do you think? Are we about to see that parabolic rally of the Take-off Phase and if so, is this 'Angle' analysis accurate at predicting when to take profit? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The 4 year Cycle of June - September..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) revisited last week more than 4-month lows and the market is again in anxiety. Righfully so but a quick look on the 4-year Cycles and what BTC has down throughout the June - September period, puts every thing again back into context.
As you can see those Jun - Sep periods of 2020, 2016 and 2012 have mostly been bullish with one correction under their belt on all three of them. More specifically, July has initiated rallies on all occasions but only 2016 saw a stronger correction and Lower Low after it.
On the current Jun - Sep period (2024), we've already made a Lower Low relative to May 01, so it is less likely to see a new one but of course it is possible. In any event, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) should technically support. As a result, the current levels for Bitcoin seem cyclically to be low risk buy entries especially on a DCA approach.
But what do you think? Will BTC make another Lower Low and replicate 2016? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is this the pattern that will save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing yet another brutal sell-off today that is bringing it even closer to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As mentioned on previous analyses, the 1W MA50 is BTC's ultimate Support trend-line throughout a Bull Cycle and you can clearly see that on the right chart.
During all its Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has supported the Parabolic Rally, until it decisively broke and confirmed the new Bear Cycle. It is therefore a standard go-to signal for long-term investors.
On the 1D time-frame (chart on the left), there is an underlying Channel Up that supported the last major medium-term pull-back on September 11 and October 11 2023. We are only a few clicks from testing this Channel's bottom, which is still around $5000 above where the 1W MA50 is right now.
As mentioned previously, chances are that BTC turns sideways and approaches the 1W MA50 while it consolidates sideways and forms a bottom. Notice how the Megaphone pattern that started on the March 14 2024 High, would be ideal for materializing this scenario. Even a marginal break of the 1W MA50 doesn't constitute a long-term bearish reversal, as long as the 1W candle still closes above it (like on June 21 2021).
So while we do have our natural Cyclical Support level, do you also think that this Channel Up will save the day for BTC and stop further bleeding and the possibility of an early Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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HAPPY JULY 4th with BITCOIN hitting the 1D MA200 after 9 months!Happy July 4th everyone! A little break from the traditional stock markets but not for crypto. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in particular, just hit and broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost 9 months (October 16 2023)!
Naturally this is a very strong long-term Support level and it is even more obvious on this 1D chart, where BTC's current consolidation is similar to the one from mid- April 2023 to mid-July 2023 (blue Rectangle).
With the long-term pattern being a Fibonacci Channel Up and the 1D MACD forming a sequence similar to the bottom formation that started on August 27 2023, Bitcoin is most likely entering the long-term Support Zone.
The ultimate Support level is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but we expect to come close to that not straight away vertically but in the next month while the price might trade sideways in similar fashion to September 2023.
In any case, since the November 2022 market bottom, this kind of distance from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has been the most optimal buy entry and including the current one, we've only had 4 such opportunities.
But what do you think? Is this the right opportunity to buy heavily again on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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