BITCOIN forming the first 4H Golden Cross in 5 months!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to form a Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame, which will be the first such formation in almost 5 months (since September 18 2023)! Regardless of the time that has passed since its last occurrence (which is a strong parameter), that pattern alone is a strong enough bullish signal for the short-term.
This can be the signal that can trigger a strong rally back to January's High but within the technical context of the dominant medium-term pattern that is none other than an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). That is a technical bullish reversal pattern that is formed on market bottoms.
It could be no coincidence that the last 4H Golden Cross (chart on the right) was formed while BTC was completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The standard target of such patterns is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. As you see on October 20 2023 that was exactly where the price consolidated and it happened to be a Resistance level from a former High.
The 2.0 Fib on the current IH&S happens to be only marginally above the 49000 Resistance and that is our Target for the short-term.
Do you agree that the emergence of a 4H Golden Cross and the Inverse Head and Shoulders can take the price back to January's High? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN rare signal. Is it staging a mega bullish break-out?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is about to flash one of the strongest cyclical bull signals it can give as the 1M (monthly) RSI is attempting to break and close above the 62.50 level. What's so important about it? Every time that level broke with the price deep into the Bull Cycle, BTC started its most aggressive phase, the Parabolic Rally that ended on the Cycle's new (All Time) High.
Last time that happened was in October 2020 and the Cycle before in June 2016. Common characteristic on both occasions is that the price was above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous High. On this Cycle, Bitcoin has already broken (and closed) above it since December 2023. As a result, once this pre-Halving consolidation is over, we can expect the new Parabolic Rally to start.
In addition to the 1M RSI, the Vortex Indicator (VI) has diverged to its fullest last month after a Bullish Cross. Going back again to the previous two Cycles, symmetrically we are still at a level where BTC has established a Low/ Support and can only rise from here (exception of course the March 2020 COVID flash crash which set the market back for a few months. Also if it wasn't for the early 2019 Libra euphoria, the VI would have made the Bullish Cross at a later stage). As a result, comparing it with 2016 is more accurate.
But what do you think? Is this potential RSI break-out, the strongest bullish signal we can get right now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD H1 / POSSIBLE RISE AFTER THE RETRACEMENT 💲Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to BTCUSD H1. I expect a retracement until the resistance level, after that, I will look for a long entry. At this stage, I see Bitcoin as more bullish than bearish.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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Bitcoin- 36k zone remains my targetIn my previous Bitcoin analysis, I argued that, in my opinion, the correction for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD was not yet over, and we could potentially witness a drop to the 36k zone. Since then, the price dipped below the 40k zone and rebounded back to almost 44k. However, this rebound exhibits a corrective structure, resembling a bearish flag, suggesting that a new downward leg could follow.
In conclusion, as long as the 45k level remains intact, selling rallies could prove to be a sound strategy with favorable risk-reward potential.
BITCOIN Cycle Phases like you've never seen them before!On today's post we are basically upgrading our previous analysis (see chart below) with the addition of actual circle shapes on Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles and pies on their phases:
As you can see this reveals a groundbreaking illustration of the historic Cycles. We don't want to get you in the technical details of the trend, you can find everything by clicking on our previous publication.
But as you can see, on top of the tradition measuring of the Cycle phases (Bear, Accumulation, Bull), we have place Wedges/ Pies that fit into the actual Circles. Those Circles (as well as the pies naturally) are all the same size/ symmetry, which just goes to show you how similar BTC's Cycles are despite the different news and fundamentals that take place during each Cycle.
We use a Double Circle pattern to demonstrate more vividly the Cycles. Most of BTC's price action tends to be within that Zone that is made, even the 2018 - 2021 Cycle, despite the notable divergencies during the Accumulation (Libra euphoria) and Bull (Musk, Tesla adoption) phases, it eventually fell back within the Channel.
The presentation also reveals Bitcoin's current position relative to the previous Cycles (black "We are HERE" arrow). That's near the end of the Accumulation Phase, only a few weeks before the Halving, above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and within the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci Zone. The upside is enormous and since the price is above the Circles Channel as during February 2020, who is to say we won't see another outperformance, especially if positive fundamentals hit the market (ETF approvals already, potential Rate Cuts, more news of adoption every day etc).
But what do you think? Is this Cycle presentation accurate and if so are you expecting a massive rally as we approach the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin 25/01 Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Consolidation Phase as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame. Completed Break of Structure with Retracement. Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Rejection from Lower Trend Line to completed its " C " Corrective Wave
BITCOIN Every monthly pull-back is a BUY opportunity from now onOn this 1W analysis we see Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) amazing symmetry through its historic Cycles. A symmetry which upto this date, is holding and we will explain why right away.
Before we begin, note that the current study can be used in combination with our legendary Golden 51%-49% Ratio publications shown below:
** Three Cycle Phases **
Now as to the cyclical symmetry. The chart classifies each grand Cycle into three phases:
a) The Bear Phase (red), which starts at the top of the previous Cycle and ends on its bottom. The price breaks below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
b) The Accumulation Phase (blue), which continues where Bear left off and is when investors buy for the long-term following the market bottom. The price breaks above the 1W MA50 during that phase.
c) The Bull Phase (green), which starts after the Halving event (orange vertical line) and ends on the new Cycle top. The price never closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA50 during that phase.
** The Symmetry **
As you can realize just on first glance, the Phases along the Cycles are on an amazing symmetry. The Bear Phases has so far been 59 weeks (413 days), 52 weeks (364 days) and the most recent 58 weeks (406 days) respectively. The Accumulation Phases have been 77 weeks (539 days) and 73 weeks (511 days) respectively. The Bull Phases have been 75 weeks (525 days) and 79 weeks (553 days) respectively.
The current Accumulation Phase will be 71 weeks (497 days) by the time of the Halving, which is remarkably along the lines of the previous 2. As for the new Bull Phase after the Halving, we could assume a minimum duration of 75 weeks (525 days) as in 2016 - 2017.
** Fibonacci role on the Halving date **
The key at the moment as we approach the upcoming Halving in April, are the Fibonacci retracement levels. During the previous two Halvings, BTC had already reached the 0.786 Fib once and at the time of the Halving was around the 0.618 Fib, which is basically the current price levels within 39000-40000. The 1W MA50 is about to touch the 0.5 Fib level which is around 33000 and technically, based on this model, is as low as the correction can extend to.
Technically we should be expecting price levels around 40k as we enter April, which of course doesn't dismiss the possibility of another run to 50k earlier. In conclusion, assuming the 1W MA50 is the new long-term Support from now on, every monthly correction, should technically be a buy opportunity as we head into the Bull Phase.
But what do you think about this Cycle mapping? Do you expect history to continue to repeat itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 1W MACD Bearish Cross formed. Is it alarming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 3rd straight bearish week (1W) following the 49000 High, which technically was a Higher High on the 1-year Channel Up. This is the 2nd Higher High structure within this pattern (first was on April 10 2023) and technically we are currently on the new Bearish Leg that seeks the formation of a new Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up.
** 1W MACD Bearish Cross **
This week's big development though is the completion of a Bearish Cross on the 1W MACD, the first one since July 24 2023 and before that May 29 2023. Both of those came after the peak formations but delivered at least another 3 weeks of downtrend.
** The 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone **
Interestingly enough those peaks were priced on the 3-year Cyclical Demand/ Supply Zone, which we have analyzed extensively in previous publications (has been Support during the Bull Cycle and Resistance during the Bear Cycle). This time BTC is above that Zone and the current Bearish Leg has high probabilities of testing it as a Support (Demand) for the first time since May 2022.
** Where to buy? **
The medium-term supporting trend-line is the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which is already near the middle of that Zone and long-term the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is about to enter it. What long-term investors and Dollar-Cost-Average traders should be looking for is buy positions on those key levels. If the Cyclical Zone holds (i.e. keeps closing 1W candles above it), then it will be confirmed as a Supply level for the remainder of the Bull Cycle and most likely will propel the price to the new Parabolic Rally Phase after April's Halving.
** Next Target? **
Every Bullish Leg within the 1-year Channel Up has been around +100%, so as long as the pattern holds, we should be technically expecting a rebound of similar magnitude. Assuming the bottom (Higher Low) is priced as low as possible (on the 1W MA50), a new +100% rise will provide a Higher High around 65000, just below Resistance 2 (69150), which is essentially the All Time High (ATH). Historic patterns have shown that a buy just before the 1W MACD forms a Bullish Cross, is perhaps the most optimal entry in preparation for this rally.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to test the Supply Zone and perhaps the 1D MA200 and 1W MA50? Are you waiting for a long-term buy there? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN MACD bottom pattern shows when to Buy and when to Sell !Over the years we have discovered many historic patterns applicable to Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles. With a relative degree of volatility every time, since each Cycle has it's own distinct characteristics and fundamental events that shape it, those patterns can help traders/ investors construct strategies for buying and selling on a long-term scale.
This time we have come across a very unique pattern on the 1M time-frame, which can identify where to Buy and where to Sell, near the Tops and Bottoms respectively, on a Cyclical scale.
Starting from the November 2011 bottom onwards, each Cycle is measured at either 3.58 or 3.83 years to the point where the 1M MACD bottoms. The last MACD bottom and start of reversal was on February 2023, while BTC was trading around 23k on average. Still not as appealing as the November 2022 16000 but low enough to provide an excellent (and confirmed) long-term dip buy entry compared to the previous $69000 All Time High.
At the moment the price is on the 0.236 Fibonacci level of the current Cycle and as you can see on the chart, this is the level where BTC makes a 1-2 month pull-back. The Tops are priced either on the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels. This means that long-term investors could take their profits either on January 2025 or July 2025, if the current Cycle lasts again 3.58 years. And as for the next bottom based on the model, it is expected on December 2026, where we can take a (relatively) confirmed buy position again for the long-term.
But what do you think about that MACD bottom model? Are you also expecting a new Cycle Top within January - July 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 17/01Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Impulse Correction " ab " Completed. Consolidation Phase as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and Long Time Frame and Rejection from Upper Trend Line. Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line
Bitcoin Price in Need of a Boost: Key Levels to WatchThe current state of Bitcoin's value requires a push from investors, as the cryptocurrency finds itself hovering around the $43,000 mark at the time of writing. Following a 7.7% dip over the past weekend, BTC has fallen below the upward trendline, which previously acted as a crucial support level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also, for the first time in three months, dropped below the neutral 50.0 level, indicating a mild downward trend at present. Despite Bitcoin's attempts to break free from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $42,069, there is potential for recovery as long as the $44,000 barrier is breached.
The market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin hinges on the successful overcoming of the $44,000 resistance, offering a chance for the cryptocurrency to regain its footing. Investors will be closely monitoring this critical level, as a decisive breakthrough could pave the way for a renewed upward trajectory. As Bitcoin navigates these key levels, the coming days will likely unfold with significant implications for its short-term price action.
BTCUSD M30 / LONG TRADE ACTIVE ON BITCOIN💲🚀Hello Traders!
As you can see, the chart has tested multiple times the resistance level, and now I expect a STRONG BULLISH MOVE.
In the previous idea, I expected an increase after testing the resistance level.
Now the long trade is ACTIVE.
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BITCOIN Will it respect the 3-year Pivot Zone?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had a strong rejection last week shortly after breaking Resistance 1 (48400), which was the high of the March 28 2022 1W candle. That is technically strong enough to initiate a medium-term pull-back on its own. The correction bias get even stronger though if we consider the 3-year Pivot Zone which has been relevant since January 11 2021, initially as a Support (held numerous times, see green circles) and later as a Resistance (red circles).
A potential test of even the top of the Zone would bring the BTC as close as possible to the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which would be a healthy medium-term correction before the next parabolic rally starts. The next Resistance is the 68900 All Time High (ATH) and obviously our next long-term Target.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin give us this pull-back buy opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD H1 / EXPECTING A BULLISH MOVE IN THE COMING WEEK 📈Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to BTCUSD H1. I see equal lows on the chart, a good sign for bullish sentiment. Before going bullish it set equal lows to collect some SL of the retails and now I will look only for long entries.
An objective, I have 2 TPs. The first one is above the FVG where we have an OB and the next TP is the second OB (you can see 30M chart).
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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BTCUSDT: Will it hit $48000? Still remain uncertainBTCUSDT remain uncertain since last two weeks price have continuosly failed to breakthrough 44k region remain sellers strong hold. Still expecting price to bounce back and create a HH. There is high possibility that price even can drop 35k area if we see no strong bullish momentum in coming days.
Comment Down your views on btcusdt?
BITCOIN The path to All Time Highs is scripted.It has been 14 months (November 14 2022) since we published our first (and to this date most important) Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycle comparison between 2022/ 2023 and 2014/ 2015:
www.tradingview.com
As you can see the main driver behind this comparison was the FTX crash in November 2022 and the Bitfinex crash in August 2015, which both acted as catalysts for the bottom. Following the FTX crash/ bottom, the price action has so far followed quite closely the 2015/ 2016 recovery.
On today's analysis, also on the 1W time-frame, we focus on the Rising Wedge that funneled the price action from the Cycle bottom to the bullish recovery. The similarities between the two Cycles are remarkable:
1. Bounce on the Lower Highs and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) break-out, which basically confirmed the transition into the Bull Cycle.
2. Immediate Channel Down after the 1W MA50 break-out on the Rising Wedge's first Higher High.
3. 1W MA50 supporting since the break-out.
Right now we are in the stage where the price has broken above the Rising Wedge. In June 2016 this caused a short-term correction back inside the Wedge towards the 1W MA50, which as mentioned held. If BTC continues to replicate that Cycle, does it mean that such a technical correction is due? The 1W MA50 is currently above 30000 and rising aggressively.
But what do you think? Are you expecting a 1 - 1.5 month pull-back from here and then a new All Time High after April's Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD Dynamics and Concerns over Attraction ForcesReaching the $48,000.00 mark earlier this week, some speculators may view this value as an upcoming attraction point for Bitcoin. However, traders in the BTC/USD market must maintain a realistic perspective, acknowledging the potential for Bitcoin prices to decline, and a one-way upward trend could pose a risky gamble, given the likelihood of lower reversals.
Risk management remains crucial for BTC/USD, and short-term volatility is expected to increase in the near future. Attraction forces persist for BTC/USD, and its value may decrease if Bitcoin holders decide to withdraw profits as financial institutions begin to engage in Bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming trading days in the BTC/USD market will garner attention, urging traders to exercise caution.
Short-term prospects for Bitcoin:
Current Resistance Level: $46,375.00
Current Support Level: $46,150.00
High Target: $47,200.00
Low Target: $45,540.00
This analysis underscores the importance of a balanced approach in the BTC/USD market, recognizing both attraction forces and potential risks. It provides a forward-looking perspective for traders, emphasizing the need for careful consideration in the face of evolving market dynamics.