BITCOIN The 4 year Cycle of June - September..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) revisited last week more than 4-month lows and the market is again in anxiety. Righfully so but a quick look on the 4-year Cycles and what BTC has down throughout the June - September period, puts every thing again back into context.
As you can see those Jun - Sep periods of 2020, 2016 and 2012 have mostly been bullish with one correction under their belt on all three of them. More specifically, July has initiated rallies on all occasions but only 2016 saw a stronger correction and Lower Low after it.
On the current Jun - Sep period (2024), we've already made a Lower Low relative to May 01, so it is less likely to see a new one but of course it is possible. In any event, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) should technically support. As a result, the current levels for Bitcoin seem cyclically to be low risk buy entries especially on a DCA approach.
But what do you think? Will BTC make another Lower Low and replicate 2016? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Is this the pattern that will save the day?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing yet another brutal sell-off today that is bringing it even closer to the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). As mentioned on previous analyses, the 1W MA50 is BTC's ultimate Support trend-line throughout a Bull Cycle and you can clearly see that on the right chart.
During all its Bull Cycles, the 1W MA50 has supported the Parabolic Rally, until it decisively broke and confirmed the new Bear Cycle. It is therefore a standard go-to signal for long-term investors.
On the 1D time-frame (chart on the left), there is an underlying Channel Up that supported the last major medium-term pull-back on September 11 and October 11 2023. We are only a few clicks from testing this Channel's bottom, which is still around $5000 above where the 1W MA50 is right now.
As mentioned previously, chances are that BTC turns sideways and approaches the 1W MA50 while it consolidates sideways and forms a bottom. Notice how the Megaphone pattern that started on the March 14 2024 High, would be ideal for materializing this scenario. Even a marginal break of the 1W MA50 doesn't constitute a long-term bearish reversal, as long as the 1W candle still closes above it (like on June 21 2021).
So while we do have our natural Cyclical Support level, do you also think that this Channel Up will save the day for BTC and stop further bleeding and the possibility of an early Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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HAPPY JULY 4th with BITCOIN hitting the 1D MA200 after 9 months!Happy July 4th everyone! A little break from the traditional stock markets but not for crypto. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in particular, just hit and broke below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in almost 9 months (October 16 2023)!
Naturally this is a very strong long-term Support level and it is even more obvious on this 1D chart, where BTC's current consolidation is similar to the one from mid- April 2023 to mid-July 2023 (blue Rectangle).
With the long-term pattern being a Fibonacci Channel Up and the 1D MACD forming a sequence similar to the bottom formation that started on August 27 2023, Bitcoin is most likely entering the long-term Support Zone.
The ultimate Support level is the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) but we expect to come close to that not straight away vertically but in the next month while the price might trade sideways in similar fashion to September 2023.
In any case, since the November 2022 market bottom, this kind of distance from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), has been the most optimal buy entry and including the current one, we've only had 4 such opportunities.
But what do you think? Is this the right opportunity to buy heavily again on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN History rhymes and calls for as high as $300k!This is a post Halving update to the 'Fibonacci Channel blueprint' analysis we've made almost a year ago. The price action has been even more aggressive than what we expected so relevant adjustments had to be made.
On this chart, we yet again rely on the long-term time-frames of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) for a more meaningful illustration of its historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price has completed 4 months of consolidation following the early March All Time High (ATH), always above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This consolidation is consistent with all previous post-Halving price actions as BTC always traded sideways and accumulated in the weeks after the Halving, in preparation for the Parabolic Rally, the Cycle's most aggressive phase.
The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
At the same time, another condition that it 'needs' to fulfil is being just below the 0.0 Fib of the Blue Channel, similar to what happened in December 2017 (just below Fib 0.0 of the orange Channel).
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib is currently a little under $300000, and as we mentioned after the consolidation of each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $300k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
As you can see, the orange (2013) and black (2020 - 2021) lines are more aggressive than the purple (2016 - 2017) but the latter is the one that, as we've posted numerous times, the current Cycle has the most similarities with. If Bitcoin follows the purple price action within the black Fibonacci Channel, then it should reach $100k by December 2024 and $300k by August 2025. If instead it transitions to the more aggressive Cycle models, then it could reach those levels much earlier.
But what do you think? Is $300k realistic within the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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#BTC/USDT Critical point. Emergency Update!#BTC needs to break and close above the 100EMA on the daily chart. Keeping it straightforward: until this occurs, the price may target the liquidity below $60k. This is not an opinion, just what the charts indicate!
The rejection in altcoins is concerning.
While I'm not bearish, BTC is currently at a critical juncture. This is the right time for the bulls to step in!
This indicator has been highly effective in identifying local bottoms and tops.
Sooner or later, the market will rally for the final wave. Until that happens, be cautious with leverage and view these times as opportunistic for altcoins.
dyor, nfa
#Crypto
Do hit the like button and share your views in the comments section.
Thank you
#PEACE
BITCOIN Will people regret not buying at this stage?Around this time last year (see chart below), we analyzed yet again the similarities of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) current Cycle with the one in 2014 - 2017. In fact we were among the fist channels in late 2022 to bring that up as a strong possibility and as you can see Bitcoin didn't fail to deliver:
We have entered however a stage where, as the title says, people could regret if they haven't bought already as it might be the last opportunity to do so on such low prices. The time-frame on both charts is 3D and as you can see, the MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the most optimal buy entry throughout the 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycle.
If the similarities continue to unfold between the two Cycles, then last week's breach of the MA50, should be the best buying opportunity at this stage. As you can see, we are proportionally at the end of the blue elliptical pattern which in early 2017 consolidated around and mostly below the former All Time High (ATH) level and then started the Parabolic Rally.
Do you think the current MA50 touch has marked the start of this rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN (BTCUSD): Time to Recover?!
Bitcoin formed an inverted cup & handle formation
and broke its neckline on a daily time frame.
Such a violation is a confirmed Change of Character (CHoCH)
and indicates a local bullish reversal.
The market may start recovering and reach 65000 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Has the ride to $250k started?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for the past 3 months (since the March High) but it is no stranger to such consolidation sequences. Since the start of the current Bull Cycle after the November 2022 bottom, consolidations have been the name of the game, as these served as accumulation phases in the absence of stronger corrections.
BTC has in fact seen similar consolidation phases historically during all previous Bull Cycles. Using the 1M RSI (black trend-line) in particular, we can see that the current consolidation, even though it happens on the All Time High (ATH) level, it is very similar to June - August 2020 and June - August 2016. During all those sequences, the 1M RSI peaked and pulled-back aggressively, even though the price was just trading sideways.
On an amazing display of symmetry, all this happened around 81 weeks (567 days) after the Bear Cycle bottom. The fact that the current consolidation is taking place on the ATH level and the two previous didn't, has to do with the fact that:
a) the last Bull Cycle was less aggressive, peaking at 'only' the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level but also because
b) the current Bull Cycle is more aggressive than expected due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF.
As you can see the Fibonacci Channel Up has been very consistent since late 2013, with the 0.0 - 0.236 Fib range serving as the Buy Zone, which is where BTC continues to trade, despite the uptrend, showcasing its enormous upward potential.
The December 11 2017 Top has been on Fib 1.0, the April 2021 on Fib 0.786, so even a mere Fib 0.5 (not even 0.618) contact at the end of the current rally, would push Bitcoin to $250000. Incredible as it may sound, this validates even the scenario of BTC following the less aggressive, recent Channel Up (blue) that started on Dec 2017. A $250k top would make an ideal technical Higher High.
But what do you think? Is $250k as easy as this model shows for Bitcoin during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Underlying trend-line coming into play.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been holding so far the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, which was the primary objective, closing all 1D candles since Friday above it, but now an underlying trend-line is coming to center stage as it got tested also on Friday successfully.
That is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the March 13 High and rejected BTC on Lower Highs initially, before transitioning to a Lower Lows Support on May 23. If that holds, the chances of a rebound towards the Resistance Zone, are amplified greatly. Practically, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, a bullish signal will emerge when the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), in which case we have a target at 72000 (bottom of Resistance Zone).
If on the other hand BTC closes a 1D candle below the underlying trend-line, prepare for 61000 (top of Support Zone) and potentially a long-term bottom formation on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that on the previous Bearish Leg (April 08 - May 01) of this 3-month consolidation structure, the price remained bearish as long as it stayed below the 1D MA50. The 4H MA50 never broke to the upside while the price was above the 1D MA50. That is why it will be a bullish signal if it breaks while BTC is above the 1D MA50.
But what do you think will happen next on the short-term? Will we see 72k or 61k first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Failure to hold the 1D MA50 leads to $60k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and that caused another pull-back that is about to test the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) once again. On Tuesday this level held and is critical to continue to do so as a breach might lead us to $60000.
This is what took place on the April 08 - 19 Channel Down. It is important to note that after the bearish break-out, the price was rejected straight on the 1D MA50, which basically confirmed the continuation to 60k.
We are currently on a similar Channel Down. Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break and push BTC to 60k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Retesting the 1D MA50. Is it alarming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been practically consolidating since the May 21 High and the recent pull-back of the past 5 days is starting to inflict a certain degree of fear in the market again. So far the effect is only on the short-term as yesterday, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was tested (first time since May 17) and held.
This is something we have seen before on February 06 2024 and October 14 2023. All 1D MA50 re-testings have taken place after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue arc) and formed the bottom of the Bearish Leg. The pattern can be easily classified into phases, with BTC trading within the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) Mean and the MMB 2SD below. A Channel Up follows after each 1D MA50 test that approaches the MMB.
The only parameter that's left to confirm the start of this (blue) Channel Up that will test the MMB is the 1W RSI to break above its MA level (yellow trend-line). As you can see 100k following that, is a rather conservative technical Target within this pattern.
Do you think that critical psychological level will get hit following this pattern? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- rise to at least 85kBitcoin's price action has been pretty boring in recent days. In fact, for the past three months, BTC/USD has been stuck in a range.
However, as I mentioned in my previous analysis, bulls have held very well above the important 67k support level.
At the time of writing, the price is 71k, once more facing the established resistance.
A break of this level is expected, and a rise of at least 20% should follow afterward.
I remain bullish as long as the price stays above 67k.
BITCOIN You might not be ready for such June!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is doing it and yet again it is going under the radar for some. The price broke out yesterday from its short-term Falling Wedge and as we showed you is extending the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Zooming out to the 1M time-frame, we can see that May closed in gains (green) and since August 2023, there has only been one month of losses (red 1M candle) and that was April. Even though that injected some uncertainty to market participants, we clearly see on this long-term chart that sporadic 1 month losses are very common in Bull Cycles, especially during parabolic rallies.
In fact they are essential as they create the right shake-out conditions to keep fueling the rally. The symmetry among BTC's Cycles is remarkable and right now with the 1W MA50 (black trend-line) in deep support, it is attempting to get detached from the Mayer Multiple (MM) 1 SD above (grey trend-line), much like it did on October 2020 and April 2017.
Based on that, we are looking for the rally to extend to at least the end of the year and reach a Target Zone within $150k - $200k within MM 2 and 3 SD above (orange the red trend-lines respectively). Last but not least, take a look at the 1M RSI, which is also on a symmetry with the previous Cycles and once it touches the Lower Highs trend-line, we should consider to start taking profits regardless of whether of the range the price might be at the time.
But what do you think? Are you prepared for a 'hot' June and if yes, how high do you think BTC will go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Major Bullish Break-out taking place.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today above the top of the Falling Wedge pattern, which is technically the Bearish Leg of May's Channel Up. If the days closes above it, we will have a repeat of the May 13 Bullish break-out but this time even stronger as the 1D Stoch RSI has formed a Bullish Cross on oversold territory.
As mentioned on our previous analysis, the last Bullish Leg of the Channel Up peaked at +19.50%, so we expect BTC to replicate this. Our Target is 79000.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT Forms Bullish Flag Pattern, Eyeing $80000 Target.BTCUSDT has recently formed a bullish flag pattern, indicating potential for a substantial price increase. The immediate target is set at $75,000 following three months of consolidation. However, traders are advised to maintain a stop-loss strategy to manage risks.
BTCUSDT (1D Chart) Technical analysis
BTCUSDT (1D Chart) Currently trading at $69600
Buy level: Above $69500
Stop loss: Below $65900
TP1: $72000
TP2: $75000
TP3: $80000
TP4: $90000
Max Leverage 5x
Always keep Stop loss
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