BTC analysis and prospects in the new weekShort -term vision
Bitcoin seems to rise. The long -term trend is 100%increased, but we may see some obstacles in the near future. K is still my goal. This will be the strongest resistance area in front of the highest region of all time.💪
🎄🎄❤️❤️❤️🎄🎄
I wish you a peaceful Christmas
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Btcusdsignals
Bitcoin Surpasses 50 Million Addresses, Reaches All-Time HighBitcoin continues its robust upward trend, recently reaching a significant milestone by exceeding 50 million unconfirmed addresses. This achievement reflects increasing user adoption and widespread acknowledgment of cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset. With an average holding of approximately $16,000 per user, the implications for future price performance are substantial.
The recent all-time high underscores strong confidence among investors and users, signifying a maturing market transitioning from speculative trading to broader acceptance and usage. The impressive bullish trajectory in the price chart, marked by higher lows and a growing number of addresses, indicates a solid foundation for future growth.
Bitcoin's ability to maintain strong support adds to its resilience and appeal as a store of value. As each user represents an average organization with the potential to multiply, the overall value of the network may continue to grow exponentially, solidifying Bitcoin's position as a leading cryptocurrency.
The increase in addresses with non-zero balances is not just a numerical milestone but evidence of trust and value placed in Bitcoin by millions worldwide. This expanding user base serves as a powerful driver for sustained and stable price performance, hinting at a promising future for Bitcoin's price potential.
Bitcoin Loses Dominance as Altcoins Lead the Market SurgeThe impact of altcoins taking the lead over Bitcoin is not particularly positive. Bitcoin dominance represents the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market held by the world's largest digital asset. Whenever this dominance increases, altcoins tend to lose influence in the market, but the rising value of altcoins is causing Bitcoin to lose its dominance.
This is later considered a signal of the altcoin season, which at this point is still a long way from happening soon. This indicates that Bitcoin's dominance was affected on Thursday as it dropped to 53% after failing to breach 54%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, has increased by 6.83% in the past 48 hours, reaching $48.66 billion. Digital assets, including Solana, Optimism, etc., recorded increases ranging from 14% to 31% in just one day.
This is largely due to the observed accumulation over the past few weeks, leading to assets worth tens of millions of dollars moving out of exchanges. Ethereum, Shiba Inu, Fetch, and Dent emerged as the largest coin-exchange reducing wallets. In the last three months, ETH worth $778 million, SHIB worth $54.6 million, and FET worth about $48 million have exited the exchange wallets.
This hints at a long-term bullish trend, which is significant given the current optimism in the market. The Fear and Greed Index for cryptocurrencies is showing greed prevailing in the market. In general, prolonged periods of greed tend to lead to corrections caused by profit-taking from investors.
However, a closer look at the cryptocurrency market reveals that it is eagerly awaiting stronger bullish signals, and altcoins are not likely to experience any significant downturn soon.
Bitcoin Price Surge: Key Factors Driving the Upward TrendOn the macroeconomic front, the influence of fundamental principles such as interest rates and inflation on Bitcoin is gradually diminishing. Other fundamental factors boosting Bitcoin prices in 2023 include the resolution of the year-long FTX lawsuit and the admission of money laundering charges by Changpeng Zhao (CZ), the CEO of rival exchange Binance. While these events stir volatility in the cryptocurrency market and act as catalysts for price fluctuations, Bitcoin's bullish momentum is rooted in three major events shaping the BTC market before 2024. These are:
Bitcoin's price history records the strongest gains in the fourth quarter, with October emerging as the most active month.
According to experts, the narrative surrounding the Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) transition continues to dominate discussions among traders and investors, with an expected approval date ranging from January 5 to January 10.
Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2024, is anticipated to kickstart the next phase of the price surge.
In summary, the Bitcoin price surge is influenced by a combination of historical trends, ETF anticipation, and the upcoming halving event, setting the tone for the cryptocurrency market leading into 2024.
BITCOIN Disturbing Puell trend-line calling for Cycle top?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is trading within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels which is the last Resistance Zone before it typically attempts a test of the All Time High (ATH) on each Bull Cycle. We have seen on previous analyses how the RSI is showing that this is a possible Mid-Cycle Resistance level where pull-backs towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) occur.
** The Puell Multiple **
This time we are looking into the Puell Multiple and we are no strangers to it as it is the indicator that helped us buy with no fear on June 28 2021 (see chart below) when it hit the 0.30 - 0.40 Support Zone:
** Two Mid-Cycle rejections **
Just as the RSI, the 1W Puell Multiple is approaching the 2.40 Resistance, which has historically caused 3 rejections (December 28 2015, June 20 2016, June 24 2019), the two latter being Mid-Cycle pull-backs (blue circles).
** Can it be a Cycle Top? **
This indicator however displays a very disturbing structure, having the price entering the Lower Highs Zone since the June 06 2011 High. This Zone has priced all previous Cycle Tops (June 06 2011, December 02 2013, December 18 2017 and March 15 2021).
** What is it this time? **
The question is, what kind of top is it this time? Mid-Cycle or Cycle High? Even though all other key indicators show it's the former, we shouldn't take this Puell signal lightly. Technically, as long as the 1W MA50 holds, there is room for at least one more High and practically this potential pull-back is a buy opportunity.
Will a potential ETF approval distort this cyclical pattern though? If not, what do you think, is this a Mid-Cycle top or full Cycle High? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 19/12Pair : BTCUSD ( Bitcoin / U.S Dollar )
Description :
Impulse Correction in Long Time Frame, Completed Impulsive Waves " 12345 " and Corrective Waves " AB ". Symmetrical Triangle as an Correction in Short Time Frame and it has completed the Retracement for Break of Structure
Entry Precaution :
Wait until it Breaks UTL / LTL
Bitcoin- Recent price action is suggesting 48k target
The previous month proved highly favorable for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD bulls, witnessing a remarkable 25% surge in price and establishing a new local high above 44k. Following this upward move, a correction ensued, yet the price found solid support around the 40k zone.
After this correction, BTCUSD's price entered a consolidation phase, and the range of this consolidation is gradually contracting, indicative of a symmetrical triangle continuation pattern. The target for this pattern is set at 48k, with confirmation contingent on a breakout above the 43,500 zone.
I maintain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, contingent on the price remaining above 40k in terms of daily close.
BITCOIN Stocks are hitting ATH earlier than BTC. Is it normal?The U.S. stocks are making new All Time Highs (ATH), with the Dow Jones already broken it, while the Nasdaq and the S&P500 (chart on the right) are very close too, while Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is almost -40% below its own ATH (chart on the left). Why is that and is it something normal?
Short answer: yes. Throughout BTC's history, it was always trailing (sometimes by an incredible margin) when the S&P500 was breaching its previous ATH after a multi-month correction. You can see those on times on the charts above (S&P hitting ATH on the blue vertical line, BTC's level at this time on the orange vertical line). It is interesting to note that every other Cycle, BTC is closer to its ATH than the previous, i.e. currently it's closer as opposed to April 2019 and before that (July 2016) it was again much closer, while on February 2012 it was on the lowest margin ever. Could be a Cyclical dynamic.
What's even more practical is that after every ATH breach for the S&P500, the index declines while Bitcoin rises, possibly in an early attempt to fill the gap.
The reasoning behind stocks making new ATH first, is that even though they are classified as risky assets, they don't match the incredibly high volatility and risk factor of Bitcoin (cryptocurrency). And the idea is that investors feel more comfortable investing capital in riskier assets, after the main market/ economy is booming and is confirmed.
What this tells you is that we are on the right Cyclical track as it happens every time on the same part of the Cycle. The stock market has left the 2022 inflation correction/ Bear Cycle back for good as it recovered all loses and is entering a new phase of expansion, and Bitcoin being closer to its Halving, is about to initiate the Parabolic Rally part of its new Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin catch up sooner than expected this time? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Global bonds and Yuan signal a strong rally ahead.Those who follows for long know that this is not the first time we mix bonds and Chinese liquidity into Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) long-term analysis. We do so as more than a year ago we discovered their importance on BTC's trending patterns, which is so much affected by the monetary supply.
This time we decided to incorporate a fair Global Bonds Yield pool metric (blue trend-line) as well as the DXY/USDCNY ratio (red trend-line) in order to see on which stage of the liquidity cyclical patterns we are.
Global bonds trading within a +10 year Channel Down but are on the new Bullish Leg. It still has a full year before it hit the top and last time it was on this symmetrical level, Bitcoin was starting a Parabolic Rally. At the same time the DXY/USDCNY ratio is having the recent June rebound rejected (red circle) in the same way it did on November 2016. BTC is already three strong bullish months in, rising since September.
Do you think this is the start of a +1 year parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Cash Surges After Whale AccumulationWhile Bitcoin Cash may not be making headlines in 2023, this altcoin is demonstrating optimistic signs starting in 2024. The Bitcoin-named cryptocurrency is undergoing a recovery, currently grappling with a crucial resistance level that has acted as a barrier to its recovery since July. Ahead of the FOMC meeting, investors exhibit caution, reducing risk as evidenced by a 40% drop in trading volume over the past 24 hours. Following the release of U.S. CPI data in November, the price of Bitcoin briefly surged to $42,000 before retracing.
Looking ahead, the prevailing view is that the Fed will maintain interest rates at the target range of 5.25-5.50%. In the latest meeting in November, the FOMC held interest rates steady, consistent with the September meeting, signaling that rates may not change in the near future but remaining open to adjusting this stance based on economic conditions.
The temporary halt in rate hikes is an anticipated outcome, allowing the Fed more time to assess whether the current interest rates effectively curb inflation that poses a threat to economic growth.
The target range of 5.25% to 5.50% was raised during the July meeting, marking the 11th interest rate hike in the 2022/2023 cycle, all aimed at managing inflation. This explains the observed uncertainty in Bitcoin prices.
📈Bitcoin golden position for left behinds📉BINANCE:BTCUSDT
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Hello dear traders. Let's make it simple. I think:
Bitcoin will retest lower levels around 35k. (But the most important dynamic level is the weekly Bollinger midline.)
Then the targets for the next jump are 45k, 47k and then 50k.
Above these levels, the most important price resistance is around 52K and 55K.
I personally bought some bitcoin close to 40k and will keep buying until the price is above 35k. (As you can see, Bitcoin touched the mid-Bollinger line on the daily TF)
✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌
✍🐱👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱👤✍
🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾
Bitcoin Holds Strong at $40,000 Amid SEC ETF Anticipation Bitcoin (BTC) continues its upward trend despite early Asian trading hours witnessing severe downturns. The anticipation around the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) plays a significant role. Google even hints at this, stating that "advertisers offering cryptocurrency trust funds targeting the U.S. to advertise those products and services" starting January 29, 2024. Notably, this aligns with the expected approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. during the same month.
Bitcoin's price bouncing back to the $40,400 low is a healthy reassessment, with the $40,000 psychological level holding as support. If this level remains steady, the idea of a new all-time high could emerge.
While the potential for price increase remains strong for Bitcoin, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has yet to surpass 70. However, the Awesome Oscillator (AO), displaying significant green histogram bars, indicates the bullish presence remains robust. The RSI may simply stay above 70.
Increased buying pressure at the current level could drive Bitcoin to break through the weekly supply zone ranging from $40,698 to $46,999. A weekly candle closing above the $43,860 moving average will confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
Such a move would set the stage for Bitcoin to turn the weekly supply into a trend-breaking tool, confirmed by action above the $48,725 resistance. In the case of a strong uptrend, Bitcoin may extend to challenge the $66,098 resistance, turning it into support. Conversely, if the weekly supply is defended as a significant resistance zone, Bitcoin may head south, breaking the $40,000 support. A weekly candle decisively closing below this level could push BTC into a downward spiral, possibly testing the $30,000 psychological level.
BITCOIN still trading very similarly to 2016. Still missing out?We have published quite a handful of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses that compare in detail the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017. A representative sample of such study is the one below that we made on July 31:
People were still in denial that BTC would extend the recover that started after the FTX crash but we analyzed in detail why we thought that was the case. As you can see the classification in phases helped a lot and turned out to be very accurate at least so far.
** Pre Halving caution? **
So what now? The price has come very close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which on the week of June 13 2016 cause a strong rejection which in the next 7 weeks extended as low as the 0.5 Fib and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
** Are we accelerating on this Cycle? **
However that was after that Cycle's Halving (no 2, week of July 04 2016) and at the moment we are roughly 18 weeks (126 days) before (the next) Halving 4. If the recent phase has been indeed accelerated by the ETF speculation, then we have already entered the last period before the true parabolic rally of the Bull Cycle, what you can see on the chart as the '0.786 to ATH' range, which was 37 weeks (259 days) from the 0.786 Fib High (June 13 2016) to the 1W candle that made a new All Time High (ATH) on February 27 2017. According to that model, we can expect prices above 65000 by August 19 2024 (notice that even the ATH is on Nov 08 2021, the Fibs were taken from the April 12 2021 High, the true Cycle Top based on the 1W RSI).
** The underlying RSI trend-line **
Speaking of the 1W RSI, on top of the previous, very accurate pattern, I have identified an underlying trend-line (dashed) which shows that after it made a fake-out break above it, the RSI pulled-back on the recent lows Support, where the price's 0.5 Fib and 1W M50 cluster was. You can use that as an additional indicator to accumulate more BTC before the ATH gets tested.
So what do you think? Will Bitcoin pull back that much before the Halving and the eventual ATH test or you think we are going straight to +65k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Core Developer Flags Ordinals as Blockchain VulnerabilitBitcoin Core developer Luke Dashjr argues that Ordinals represent a vulnerability causing transaction fees to rise and need to be eliminated. Addressing this loophole would remove Ordinals from the BTC blockchain, clearing clutter from the text strings.
BTC Price Surges Nearly 11% in the Past Week, Reaching $44,700 on Friday.
The online bitcoin community is embroiled in a debate over whether Ordinals pose a threat to the BTC blockchain. While Bitcoin Core developers like Luke Dashjr view text strings as spam, others see them as a development for the BTC blockchain on the X social media platform.
Read also: Solana Continues to Attract Capital from Ethereum, SOL Price Maintains Above $72
Ordinals Currently Identified as a Vulnerability
Luke Dashjr informed his 83,300 followers in a recent tweet on X that text strings are exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin Core to spam the blockchain. Since 2013, Bitcoin Core has allowed users to set limits on the size of additional data in transactions they forward. Text strings surpass this limit, making them "vulnerable." Dashjr states that Bitcoin Core remains vulnerable in the upcoming v26 release and developers hope to address this issue by v27 next year. The developer argues that miners must be honest and non-malicious, but allowing text string alterations on the Bitcoin blockchain will increase transaction fees. While advantageous for miners, it constitutes an attack on the BTC blockchain network.
Text strings are considered a technical vulnerability that could have long-term implications for Bitcoin users due to its impact on network security and integrity.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at $43,694 on Binance, bringing nearly an 11% profit for BTC holders on Binance over the past week.
Bitcoin: "Gold on Steroids" with Surging Institutional Investmen Bitcoin has often been compared to gold over the years. Initially viewed as a "safe haven" similar to gold, analysts are now comparing the two investments to determine if Bitcoin meets the criteria of being "gold on steroids." In the past 5 years, up to November, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has competed favorably when compared to gold and other proven assets in the market. The Sharpe ratio is defined as the difference between risk-free and investment returns divided by the standard deviation of the investment. Timmer argues that Bitcoin is more volatile than most other assets, but this volatility impacts both directions, and BTC investments come with their own risk-reward profile, akin to what has been observed over the past decade.
According to a report by CoinShares, institutional investors continue to pour funds into Bitcoin funds, with a weekly inflow of $132.8 million recorded as of December 4th. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin stands at $44,162 USD on Binance.
Bitcoin's Potential Drop to $42,000 Hinges on US NFP ReportBitcoin's Price Faces Potential Decline
Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,241, struggling to surpass the $44,500 mark, leading to minor corrections. While the broader market outlook leans towards an upward trend at the time of writing, the short-term picture suggests a potential downside.
This is evidenced by the Convergence Divergence Moving Average (MACD) indicator. The diminishing green bars indicate a weakening upward trend, signaling a potential decline in Bitcoin's price.
However, BTC is likely to retreat to $42,000 or $40,000 if the previously established support level is breached. This is a short-term scenario contingent on a stronger-than-expected NFP report. Yet, if the report is weaker or broader market signals shift towards an upward trend, a recovery from the $42,000 level becomes plausible. This would fuel an upward trajectory, pushing Bitcoin beyond $44,500 and undermining the bearish sentiment.
The market dynamics are closely tied to the upcoming NFP report, and a divergence from expectations could significantly impact Bitcoin's price movements. Traders will be watching for signals of either a deeper correction or a potential recovery based on the economic data.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally Sparks Enthusiastic MomentumAfter a period of consolidation, Bitcoin has undergone a rapid and decisive price surge. Successfully maintaining its position above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicative of robust and sustained bullish sentiment. The fanning out of the moving averages is often interpreted as a sign of increasing momentum.
Furthermore, recent green candles on the chart, characterized by large bodies, reflect strong buying pressure. The absence of long wicks suggests that pullbacks are swiftly being bought, demonstrating a solid presence of fundamental buying strength in the market. This scenario often aligns with institutional investment activity, as institutions tend to execute strategic, large-scale purchases rather than quick transactions.
In the immediate term, Bitcoin appears to be approaching resistance levels at recent highs, with potential pullbacks likely to test the strength of current support levels.
As Bitcoin enthusiasts closely monitor these developments, the market dynamics indicate a shift towards a more optimistic outlook, driven by both technical indicators and institutional investment behavior.
BITCOIN Megaphone breached! How high can the price go?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the Bullish Megaphone pattern that kept it at bay since the October 24 High. The previous Bullish Megaphone of September - October technically served as a consolidation belt before the price broke upwards to deliver a +31.86% peak from the Megaphone's last Higher Low and +40.50% from its first Low.
The ROC shows a similar behavioral structure between the two patterns. If it continues this way, then a new +31.50% leg will make a perfect contact on 48220, which is the March 28 2022 High, essentially the Bear Cycle's first Lower High and a key Resistance level of the current Bull Cycle. Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds (has been doing so since Sep 28), that is a realistic end target for this bullish wave.
But what do you think? Do you agree that this is a likely extension for this rally before the price pulls back or you expect a pull back now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price Expected to Surge by 20% to $50,000 The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently on an upward trend. Surpassing the psychological level of $42,000 has sparked optimism, with Bloomberg setting an ambitious target for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. According to the news outlet, Bitcoin reaching $42,000 is just the beginning of a new crypto super cycle that could propel the world's largest token to over $500,000, as advocates claim it heralds a new monetary order making waves on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin is caught within a weekly supply zone ranging from $40,517 to $46,972. To confirm the continuation of the primary trend (upward on the weekly timeframe), the price needs to break and close above the midpoint of the supply barrier at $43,860.
A decisive move above this level could see Bitcoin extending its rally, turning the supply zone into a bullish trend-breaking tool as BTC aims for the forecasted psychological level of $50,000.
In the case of a significant price increase, the surge may encounter resistance at $55,560. It is even plausible to extrapolate these increases to the highest range of $66,098. Such a move would constitute a 56% increase from the current level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this outlook as its upward movement indicates bullish momentum. Similarly, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) chart are green in the positive zone, signaling that the bull camp is leading the market. These factors add confidence to the optimistic viewpoint.
As Bitcoin continues to make headlines, market participants are closely watching for potential breakthroughs and milestones in its price journey.
BITCOIN Hello April 2022! 40k cleared!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the psychological 40000 mark, trading now even above 41k. Those are levels that we haven't seen since the week of April 18 2022! And we don't know yet where this euphoric (on Fed, ETF anticipation) candle will stop.
Technically, the next Resistance level is the 48220 High that was the first Lower High made after the November 2021 All Time High, on the week of March 28 2022. With the current trend structure it is not unrealistic to hit this zone as the pattern remains a Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom. The current bullish leg resembles that of March 2023 and the price action now is on a course to price the new Higher High near the 48220 Resistance.
Beyond that it is high speculation but if it continues to repeat the waves of the Channel Up and the sequence after the April 10 2023 High, we could see a Falling Wedge bottoming close to Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) and as you are all aware of, the supply shock that the Halving causes to BTC, should gradually set in motion the Parabolic Rally of the Bull Cycle.
In addition to the above, BTC is about to complete in the next 2-3 weeks the first ever Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). It will be really interesting to see how the market will react for the first time to such a bullish technical pattern.
But what do you think? Do you think that Channel Up is too scripted to be true? If not, can Bitcoin test 48k next straight away or a pull-back to test the middle/ bottom of the Demand Zone would be more realistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price May Drop to $40,000, Key Indicators Suggest The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the psychological level of $40,000 and could erase it before undergoing a correction. Several bullish indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have strengthened the prospects for further price increase. The RSI, a momentum indicator, indicates increasing momentum with its position at 68, suggesting there is still room for upward movement before the cryptocurrency king could be considered overbought.
Furthermore, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is in positive territory, with green bars on the chart, indicating that the bullish camp is leading the market. Therefore, increased buying pressure could see the price of Bitcoin rise from the current level of $39,462 (as of 8:00 AM GMT), surpassing the recent high within the range of $39,778 before testing the psychological level of $40,000.
BITCOIN on the verge of a global money supply rally.On today's study we plot Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against two unique formulae that encompass the basic essence of the global money supply. The formula in blue has a differentiation towards Chinese bond yields while the orange on the Chinese Yuan. Both are regressed against the U.S. Dollar and the batch of the U.S. Balance Sheet, Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet and the ECB's Assets.
BTC bottoms exactly when the orange trend-line bottoms and it starts the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle when the blue trend-line bottoms on a Lower Low. Right now blue has started to rise after just bottoming on a Lower Low.
This is contrary to common belief and traditional Halving theory, but according to the above monetary metrics BTC may just be starting a new parabolic rally much earlier than anticipated.
Do you agree or it's too soon and you'll wait for the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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