"Bitcoin Could Rally Northward on Potential RSI Intersection" Bitcoin (BTC) has breached the resistance level of $38,008, though not decisively, currently trading at $38,139 at the time of writing. There is still potential for an extension towards the higher range at $38,414 or, in the case of a strong upward movement, pushing towards $40,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving upward and is on the verge of crossing above the signal line (yellow band). Historically, each time this intersection occurs, BTC has responded with a bold upward move, interpreting it as a buying signal.
Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator remains in positive territory, indicating that the bullish camp maintains control despite strong downward price pressure. On the flip side, increasing selling pressure could lead Bitcoin to drop below the support level of $38,008 or, worse, test the support level of $35,487. In a more severe scenario, a downturn could cause BTC to lose the confluence support between the horizontal line and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $33,912. Breaking and closing below this level would invalidate the bullish argument, setting the stage for a further southward extension towards the psychological level of $30,000.
Btcusdsignals
Asian Stocks Advance Amid Dollar's Decline vs Fed's Rate OutlookAsian equities saw positive momentum on Tuesday, coupled with the US dollar hitting a three-month low, reflecting investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's completion of the interest rate hike cycle. The focus remains on a pivotal inflation report slated for later this week.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan recorded a 0.39% increase, signaling an impressive nearly 7% surge in November – the strongest monthly performance since January.
Japan's Nikkei, despite a 0.20% slip, achieved an 8% gain for the month, marking its most robust monthly performance in three years.
Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist at the National Australia Bank (NABZY), emphasized the significant role of central bank policy outlook in boosting risk appetite in November.
Indicators of easing inflationary pressures align with the belief that numerous central banks have concluded their tightening cycles, setting the stage for anticipated interest rate cuts next year, as stated by Catril.
Current market expectations suggest a 96.8% likelihood that the US central bank will maintain interest rates next month. The likelihood of rate cuts is projected to increase in mid-2024, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Investors will closely monitor the Fed's preferred inflation gauge on Thursday and eurozone consumer inflation data this week for a clearer understanding of inflation trends.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, on Monday, asserted that the central bank's efforts to control price growth are ongoing. She cited robust wage growth and lingering uncertainties, even as inflation pressures ease in the eurozone.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Friday speech will be scrutinized for insights into potential future interest rate directions.
China's CSI 300 index declined by 0.23%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.70% a day after data indicated slower profit growth in Chinese industrial companies for October.
Monday's US data revealed a larger-than-expected decline in new home sales for single-family homes in October due to higher mortgage rates. However, the housing segment remained supported by persistent shortages of available properties.
Weaker-than-expected data impacted Treasury bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield shedding 9.6 basis points on Monday. During Asian hours, they rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.404%.
The US Dollar Index, gauging the greenback against a basket of currencies, declined to 103.11, its lowest since August 31. The Japanese yen gained 0.28%, reaching 148.25 per USD.
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday following a significant decline the previous day, with investors anticipating the OPEC+ meeting this week and potential supply constraints in the coming year.
US crude oil rose by 0.31% to $75.09 per barrel, and Brent returned above $80.00. Gold spot prices increased by 0.1% to $2,015.00 per ounce, slightly below the three-month high reached on Monday.
Bitcoin Mining Tool Cleanspark Gaining MomentumThe daily chart below provides a more detailed view of the early stages of the red wave III. From the December 2022 low, a bullish price cycle unfolded within the red wave 1. In this context, the black wave ((v)) displays an expansive phase, concluding the red wave 1 in July 2023 at $7.60. From the peak, an accumulation pattern within the red wave 2 emerged in the form of a zigzag.
Firstly, the black wave ((a)) found its bottom in August 2023 at $4.91. Subsequently, a recovery in the black wave ((b)) set a pivot in the same month at $6.86. From there, the black wave ((c)) broke below the $4.91 low, initiating a downtrend. The target range of $4.16-$2.50 was achieved, and the price is now rebounding.
The preferred outlook suggests that the red wave 2 concluded in October 2023. With the price above $3.38, the next bullish phase within the red wave 3 has commenced. The short-term target is the range of $9.25-$12.88, and potentially even higher. For long-term scenarios, the current price below $6 presents an excellent investment opportunity. While medium-term investors can anticipate a potential 7-fold reward for their risk, long-term rewards may reach up to 25 times and beyond, considering the current commitment.
Bitcoin's Price Trend Questioned as ETF Momentum FadesBitcoin price action raises questions about the upward trend as ETF momentum wanes. With buyer liquidity collected on November 9th at $39,149, the potential for a BTC reversal is significant. Leading indicators are present - decreasing volume, diminishing liquidity, bearish divergence, and more. Given these signals, if BTC undergoes a correction, it is likely to explore the following support zones:
Reasonable price range, extending from $32,833 to $30,299.
Weekly support level at $31,376.
Psychological level at $30,000 USD.
While a correction seems plausible, investors should note that any announcements regarding the approval of a Bitcoin ETF still have the potential to propel BTC higher. Therefore, bearish proponents must exercise extreme caution, as a sudden reversal could push Bitcoin beyond the $40,000 mark.
BITCOIN Monthly RSI tells you where the Cycle Top will be!Following our recent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Thanksgiving study on the trend-line angles, we decided to expand it a bit further and apply a similar reasoning on the RSI, this time on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
The result is more than informative as, with the additional use of the Fibonacci Channel levels for better display, we see that from bottom to top, every Cycle displays an RSI trend-line on a 40° angle (approximately). Applying the same measurement on the current Cycle, we get a rough date for the next Top at around March 2025. This doesn't of course give a dollar figure of BTC's price at that time but rather tells you to (at least) start considering taking (some) profits on your holdings.
Do you agree with that model? Are going to sell around that date? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Aims for $40,000 with Tether Whale SupportThe price of Bitcoin surpassed the $38,300 mark for the first time in 18 months as demand for BTC steadily increased. Catalysts such as anticipation of the U.S. financial regulatory authority approving the physically settled Bitcoin ETF and growing demand from Tether whales could potentially push the BTC price even higher. Among the contributors to Bitcoin's rise to $38,300, prominent Tether whales have emerged. Based on data from the cryptocurrency information tracking tool Santiment, the top 100 Tether addresses have added an additional $1.67 billion to their holdings in the past six months. As the buying power of these stablecoin whales increases, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 also rises. To establish the correlation between Tether whales and the Bitcoin price surge, Santiment highlights the reduction in holdings of USDT tokens by whales over two weeks, coinciding with BTC rising to $38,300. Tether whales have utilized their stablecoin to accumulate Bitcoin and drive demand for the largest cryptocurrency.
During the Bitcoin price decline in August, stablecoin whales accumulated BTC tokens. The current trend for Bitcoin has been upward since November 2022, with the price of BTC at $37,795 on Binance after a recent pullback from the local peak of $38,380. Bitcoin is targeting the $40,000 mark, representing an almost 6% increase from the current level.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Bitcoin broke through a strong resistance level at $37,980 on November 24, but the bullish camp is struggling to sustain the breakthrough. This indicates strong defense from the bearish side. Both moving averages are sloping upward, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 61 suggests minimal resistance to the upside. If buyers maintain the price above $37,980, the BTC/USDT pair could reach $40,000.
This level could witness another tough battle between bulls and bears, but if buyers gain the upper hand, this pair could surge to $48,000. Time is running out for the bears. To weaken momentum, they would have to push the price below the 20-day EMA. The short-term trend will turn negative below $34,800.
BTCUSDT Potential Next Targets!!BTCUSDT (4h Chart) Technical analysis
BTCUSDT (4h Chart) Currently trading at $37000
Buy level: Above $36800
Stop loss: Below $34500
TP1: $39000
TP2: $42000
TP3: $45000
TP4: $48000
Max Leverage 3x
Always keep Stop loss
Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Bitcoin Emergency Analysis! Failed Triple-Top, Breakout Now!Bitcoin is attempting to break out of Weekly Resistance right now! My previous analysis showed a potential triple-top playing out which did bring us down to $35,700. That bear breakout was immediately erased and the price rocketed back into the bull channel.
How do we trade this?
If you're not already long from the $36,000 area, don't long just yet because this 4HR candle has not closed. Never trade a candle that hasn't closed yet, it could turn into a bear signal in an instant. If this candle closes on or near its high, consider a long with a stop loss just below the Weekly Resistance line.
If a bear signal bar plays out, wait for a confirmation bar closing on or near its low below the Weekly Resistance and set a stop loss just above the resistance line. A reasonable first take profit target is $36,000 at the minor trend line, then the 200EMA below that around $35,000.
Key Points
1. Bear Breakout of Bull Channel Failed!
2. Triple-Top Reversal Pattern Failed!
3. Still in Bull Channel, Remain Long.
4. Bull Breakout Attempting Now!
5. Wait for this 4HR Bull Bar to Close above Weekly Resistance.
6. RSI near 70.00 Level, Weak Indicator, Worth Noting.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Bitcoin Holds Above $37,000 Amidst Thanksgiving Holiday TradeCryptocurrency values experienced a modest decline on Thursday, attributed to lower trading volumes in Bitcoin and Ether during the Thanksgiving holiday. Meanwhile, some altcoins demonstrated upward momentum even as the major cryptocurrencies saw a dip in their prices. After surpassing the $37,000 threshold earlier in the week and testing the $38,000 resistance multiple times, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a retracement of short-term profits on Thursday, as traders opted to secure gains ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Notably, Crypto Myths pointed out that a significant portion of selling pressure on leading cryptocurrencies stems from short-term holders liquidating their BTC positions back into exchanges after breaching the $37,000 mark.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Let's see Bitcoin's price on this date!Let me begin by wishing everyone in the TradingView community a Happy Thanksgiving! A day of joy, gathering and happy family moments!
Aren't you curious to see where the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading on this day in the previous years? If so, have a look:
2010: $0.28
2011: $2.49
2012: $12.51
2013: $813
2014: $376
2015: $328
2016: $739
2017: $8,771
2018: $4,015
2019: $7,150
2020: $18,764
2021: $58,927
2022: $16,353
2023: $37,000
So the obvious question is this. Do you see the pattern??
Since 2009 there have been 10 Thanksgiving dates where the price of BTC was higher than the previous year and only 4 where it was lower. Only once we've seen two straight red Thanksgivings and at least two green Thanksgiving dates follow. This year we have a green one, more than double the price of 2022 and in fact this is the first time BTC doubled coming from a red Thanksgiving since 2016.
An interesting pattern that arises on this chart is that when measuring the line that connects the Thanksgiving closer to the Cycle Top back to years, we can see that its angle is lower (naturally) by a certain rate. From 2015 to 2017 it measured the previous angle x 0.64. From 2019 to 2021 it was the previous angle x 0.68. From 2022 to 2024 based on this progressive pattern, is should be the previous angle x 0.72 (0.68 + 0.04). That gives us a rough value just under $80000 for the next Thanksgiving (November 28 2024). It is very possible that the Cycle top will be priced higher a few weeks after on an aggressive spike above $100k, as BTC often does (only the June 2011 Cycle Top was way off, being in the middle of two Thanksgivings).
But what do you think about this model and its projection? Are you expecting a BTC price around 80k on the next Thanksgiving and if not, what is your estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure Bitcoin's price experienced a decline on Tuesday and Wednesday following a series of significant legal developments in the industry. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of $36,260, significantly below the year's peak of $38,000.
The BTC/USD pair retreated after reaching a high of $37,800 on Tuesday. On the 4-hour chart, it remains within an ascending channel represented by black lines. It is currently consolidating at the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 and EMA 25.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below 50. Upon closer inspection, it has also formed a triple-top pattern, often a sign of a price decline. The neckline of this pattern is at $34,740, the lowest point on November 14th.
Therefore, the outlook for this currency pair suggests a potential price decrease, with the next level to watch being $34,738. This perspective will be confirmed if the price moves below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. An alternative scenario is a recovery for this pair, moving above this week's high of $37,800.
BITCOIN ETF what?? This is a cyclical USD-fueled rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing in the past 30 days the first legitimate medium-term rally since March - April. The ETF acceptance anticipation has been cited as one of the reasons but after the SEC's latest delay, we see that it hasn't affected BTC's price as much and the reason is something else. Perhaps the strongest technical reason why Bitcoin has been rallying, is the sharp decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Displayed by the green trend-line, we can see that its October 09 peak coincided with Bitcoin's rally.
DXY tends to peak first and after it starts to decline, Bitcoin (also a general observation for commodities too, not limited to digital assets) catches as a few days later. As you can see on this chart (1W time-frame), it is a cyclical behavioral pattern where an initial decline on the DXY (red Flag) fuels BTC's last pre-Halving rally. When this DXY pattern (blue Arc) ends, it makes a Higher High peak outside the pattern and gets hammered aggressively (red hammer). This starts BTC parabalic rally, what we call at Tradingshot "Post Halving expansion". We are expecting that the following summer.
Do you think however that a SEC ETF approval earlier in 2024 will dramatically increase the chances of such a rally happening earlier or it's more tied to the DXY? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price Faces Key Support Check Amid Market Weakness The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is displaying weakness, registering a 3% decline in a day, with most of these losses attributed to news surrounding the Binance exchange. Testing a crucial support level at $36,788, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating weakening momentum, BTC could face further declines. Increased selling pressure below the critical $36,788 level within the extended supply zone ranging from $36,276 to $37,301 could present an opportunity for an extended downturn, with experts predicting a potential drop to the psychological level of $30,000.
Currently, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) charts have dipped into the red and inch slightly towards the daily midpoint. This signals a gradual dominance by the bearish camp. Conversely, rising buying pressure from investors seeking to capitalize on the $36,788 retest could push the Bitcoin price higher. The first target would be surpassing the local peak at $37,972 before testing the upper range at $37,980 and ultimately achieving the psychological level of $40,000, representing a 10% increase from the current level.
BTCUSDTDear Traders,
btcusd has been bullish ever since it dropped to 15000 area from where price just skyrocketed. This sudden jumped in price is due to economic side where investors are more keen in investing in crypto assets than in stock markets or DXY itself. The war conflict also influenced btcusd.
If you like our work then please do consider liking the idea and comment your views.
Bitcoin ETFs: Catalyst for Crypto's ComebackThe imminent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) signals a potential resurgence for digital assets, attracting institutional and retail investors alike.
The U.S. SEC is expected to greenlight ETFs by mid-January, opening the door for influential players like BlackRock and Fidelity to allocate a portion of their portfolios to cryptocurrencies.
This regulatory shift comes in the aftermath of FTX's industry-shaking moves, dampening crypto enthusiasm despite recent market recovery.
While traditional investors remain cautious, the normalization of Bitcoin through ETFs could redefine the market, offering transparency and liquidity benefits.
The anticipated change holds promise but will likely take time to unfold, marking a potential turning point for digital assets.
Bitcoin ETF to Further Democratize Financial Access Navigating the intricate landscape of blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies, roundtable host Rob Nelson engaged in a insightful conversation with Lule Demmissie, CEO of eToro USA. Their discussion delved deep into the future of digital assets and the evolving trends in cryptocurrency finance.
Demmissie outlined how eToro users can trade not only bitcoin but also ether and over 20 other cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the democratizing aspect of digital assets. This democratization has enabled a broader audience to access a variety of alternative assets. According to Demmissie, this shift reflects the growing diversity in digital asset ownership.
The conversation touched upon recent events in the cryptocurrency world, including the legal case involving Sam Bankman-Fried. Nelson pointed out that such fraud cases are not exclusive to cryptocurrencies but are common challenges in the financial world. He highlighted the cleansing effect these incidents have on the cryptocurrency space, supporting the potential democratization of bitcoin as a decentralized currency.
The discussion then shifted focus to the anticipated launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin. Nelson expressed his belief that these ETFs would significantly democratize bitcoin, a sentiment echoed by Demmissie, who emphasized the importance of not solely concentrating on spot ETFs. She advocated for expanding the use of digital assets and decentralized finance (DeFi), envisioning a future where traditional finance (TradFi) and DeFi coexist to diversify risks in an increasingly complex world.
As the conversation concluded, Demmissie underscored the potential of blockchain technology and tokens to empower communities and revolutionize non-profit sectors. She emphasized the role of technology in breaking down access barriers and democratization, a theme resonating throughout their discussion on the future of cryptocurrency.
The dialogue between Nelson and Demmissie provided valuable insights into the current state and future potential of cryptocurrency, highlighting the crucial role of technology in democratizing finance and creating new opportunities in the realm of digital assets.
BITCOIN First 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross since December 2019!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) will complete this week or the next the first 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) - MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross since the week of December 02 2019! Such a bullish pattern, exactly 4 years after, is a Cyclical buy signal which technically is the last we are going to get during this Cycle.
With the Halving being a fundamental signal, this Bullish Cross is the early signal of a pre-Halving buy, which sets the stage for the Bull Cycle's final parabolic rally. Time-wise it takes place almost during the same time period (Time Fib 2.236 in 2016 while today and 2019 it took place on the 2.0 Time Fib). As you can see, following this formation, BTC tends to rally to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (if it hasn't done so before as in 2019), while the 0.5 Fib turns into the Support (it wouldn't have broken in 2020 if it weren't for the COVID crash).
Observe the similarities on the 1W MACD also around the time of the 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross. It rises on a Bullish Cross and forms a Bearish Cross a few weeks after, which delivers a low price level we won't break again during the rest of the Bull Cycle. So to sum it up, moving forward, Bitcoin targets the 0.786 Fibonacci at $50000, while the 0.5 or at most the 0.382 Fib (32000 - 27000) will support.
But what do you think as we move towards the April Halving? Will 30k hold and more importantly are we on the path to hit 50k soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN has entered the Halving Phase and targets 50k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy volatility lately due to the ETF development and in times like this, we tend to zoom out into the longer term time-frames such as the 1W to get a better perspective of where we might be at with relation to past Cycles, in an attempt to filter out the short/ medium-term volatility of such news.
** Cycle classification **
On this chart we compare the current to the 2018 - 2021 and 2014 - 2017 Cycles. To get an insightful understanding of time and levels, we have categorized the Phases into Bear (red), 1st Rally (orange), Pre & Post Halving (blue) and Parabolic Rally (green).
Based on that classification, BTC has just entered the Pre & Post Halving phase, with Halving 4 expected to take place in April 2024. During that phase, the price reaches or has already reached (in the case of 2020) the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, while keeping the 0.382 Fibonacci intact as a Support (notable exception of course March 2020 with the COVID crash, which was however an irregularity due to its once in 100 years occurrence). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) also poses as a loose Support.
** Now and new All Time High **
On the current Cycle, the 0.786 Fib is at $50000, so based on our model, either now or 3-4 months after the Halving it should be reached. At the same time, we shouldn't drop below 27000 (0.382 Fibonacci).
Once the 0.786 Fib breaks, BTC should test the 69000 All Time High (ATH) in a matter of weeks, which will be the start of the Parabolic Rally phase. Beyond that, it is a matter of how high the current Cycle can extend to in pricing the next ATH. The 2017 Cycle peaked on the 2.382 Fib extension and the 2021 on the 1.618 Fib extension. That is the Theory of Diminishing returns on every Cycle, as adoption gets greater. Technically it is natural to expect no more than 1.382 Fib, which is a little over $120000. Perhaps the worst case scenario might be 100k but of course much depends on the fundamentals at the time, e.g. how adoption evolves, how much capital will flow in case of an ETF approval etc.
But what do you think? Do you agree that 50k will be reached within our designated Pre & Post Halving phase? Or it is too high too soon? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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We Could See a Macro Wyckoff Accumulation In my opinion we can see the big guys left their footrpints in shape of secondry test which plays a major roll in Wyckoff Accumulation Method
I am not sure yet because of there are diffrent typs of Wyckoff Accumulation and Distribution so cant ruled it out which one is going to playout but the best method is wait and watch either we could find support at 15500$ which will be aslo considered as a Wyckoff Accumulation or we could take out that low to make ATL ( bottom ) for BITCION
WHATS MORE LIKLY ?
In my opinion more likely Bitcoin has to take that low to create a bottom arround 10K to 8K before new bullrun
"Bitcoin Price Rises Northward in Recovery Effort" Bitcoin's price is trending upward, attempting to recover recent losses that wiped out $90 million in open interest from the market. With the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hovering at $34,572, BTC is striving to reclaim territory above the crucial resistance level at $36,788. To confirm an upward move, investors should monitor Bitcoin's price breaking and closing above $36,788. This would set the stage for BTC to target the highest range within $37,972 before reaching the psychological level of $38,000.
In the case of a strong uptrend, Bitcoin's price could extend its reach to the psychological level of $40,000, representing a 10% increase from the current level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing upward, indicating increasing momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains in positive territory, providing additional confidence in the bullish argument. Conversely, another rejection from the $36,788 resistance could lead to Bitcoin losing support from the 25-day and 50-day EMAs at $34,572 and $32,456, respectively, before descending into the supply zone, becoming a trend-reversal tool. In this scenario, it may test the 100-day EMA at $30,528.