#BITCOIN= SHOW SUPPORT TO OUR FIRST IDEA.Hey Everyone,
Price have accumulated since last few weeks and now we are expecting price to continue the bullish trend until $62000 which is our primary target, it is worth noticing that price have potential to reach that target as economic and other factors are supporting the idea.
Thanks for your support in advance :)
Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Needs to break the 1W MA100 to confirm bullish extensionBitcoin (BTCUSD) is rebounding after hitting the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the June 12 1W candle, which provided a rise. Technically on the 1W time-frame, the trend has been neutral basically with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting and the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) as the Resistance, having the July 10 rejection. In fact, the 1W MA100 has been unbroken ever since the May 02 2022 bearish break-out that started the final and more aggressive decline of the Bear Cycle. If BTC reclaims it, technically it should turn into Support until the next Bear Cycle.
At the same time the price continues to respect the 1M Support/ Resistance Zones, which is part of an analysis we conducted in June. The Resistance Zone (red), was previously a Support in 2022 having closed all 1M candles up to April 2022 above it, despite some large wicks that broke much lower but where bought back aggressively in the end. That Support Zone is now the new Resistance Zone, in a similar way as the Resistance Zone of July - August 2022 (green) is now the new Support.
The 1W MA50 is within that Support Zone, in a similar way the 1W MA100 is trading within the Resistance Zone. All this while the 1W RSI is within a Channel DOwn since it hit the 70.00 Overbought barrier on April 10 but is close to the Higher Lows trend-line of June 2022, which is the current Cycle's Support.
As a result, the price is currently within a huge Neutral Zone that although based on the 1M candles closings, a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA100, will be the first bullish break-out signal towards 45900 - 48500, which is the next Resistance Zone ahead and our medium-term target.
But what do you think? Will Bitcoin break above the 1W MA100 (Resistance) or the 1W MA50 (Support)? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Grayscale prevails against SEC! Ready for +30% rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is already more than +5% for the day after Grayscale prevailed against the U.S. SEC in a historic ruling over the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust to a spot Bitcoin ETF in a lawsuit. This legal win could be a pivotal step towards having the first ever spot Bitcoin ETF authorized in the United States.
Technically the price reclaimed the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with ease after breaking below it 12 days ago. A 1D candle closing above it would confirm this sentiment. After all, the August 22 low was exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, making a Higher Low sequence. On top of that, the 1D MACD just completed a Bullish Cross, the 4th such formation these months.
As a result, BTC has both the fundamental and technical backing for a new medium-term rally. The previous two rallies to a Higher High have been around +29% so we are expecting at least $32500. Interestingly enough they both took only (around) 30 days to be completed since their bottoms (Higher Lows).
But what do you think? Is this the start of a new +30% rally for Bitcoin or just a fake-out move based on news? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can it hit $50000 by the end of the year?This Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study is centered around the MACD Bullish Cross that took place on the 1M time-frame two months ago. Since 2014, the 1M MACD has formed a Bullish Cross another 3 times. In all cases the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level was hit either before (only time the June 2019 Libra hype) or after.
At the same time, the Symmetrical Support level from the last Lower High of the Bear Cycle held and closed all 1M candles above it (exception of course is the Black Swan non-technical irregularity of the COVID flash crash on March 2020).
This is the position that the recent price decline has brought us to, testing that Symmetrical Support, which has held twice already in June and May 2023. The situation is more like the December 2015 1M MACD Bullish Cross, which took 6 months until it reached the 0.786 Fibonacci level. This time range is completed in 4 months, which means that by December 2023 BTC can reach the 0.786 Fib, which is at $50000.
So do you think that this Bullish Cross will have history repeated and make firstly the Symmetrical Support to close the month above it and secondly that the price will reach $50k by the end of the year? Is this the final red monthly candle before a relentless rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Not many opportunities to buy it at a better discount.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had a noticeable correction recently, bringing the price back to mid-June levels and spreading fear across the market. This effect isn't however until we zoom out to the larger time-frames (1W on the current study) and the multi-year Cycles that we realize that this is a natural technical phenomenon, an early Bull Cycle correction after the first rally of the new Bull market.
As you can see we compare today to where the price was in 2019, 2015 and 2012 all 238 days before the Halvings of their respective Cycles, which is how long away we are currently (238 days/ 34 weeks) from Halving 4 (estimated in April 2024).
In 2012 and 2015, the price was within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, same as today. The exception is 2019 when the price was considerably above that zone, mainly due to the sheer aggressive nature of the 2019 rally. However the correction that followed was equally strong as (even excluding the COVID crash), the price scratched the top of the 0.618 Fib.
As a result, we can argue that BTC is exactly where it is supposed to be during that respective phase of the Cycle, based on its historic cyclical activity. This doesn't mean that it can't fall some more, but most likely there won't be many opportunities to buy it at a better discount.
Do you think that's the case or are you waiting for a (much) lower price to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN First time on the 1D MA200 in 5 months. Disaster ahead?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit yesterday the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 10 2023 Low and closed a 1D candle below it for the first time since January 12 2023. Can this be an early warning that the worse have yet to come?
It certainly could, considering that the price also broke and closed below the Higher Low trend-line that started BTC's recovery from the Bear Cycle back in December 2022. However the (massive) decline is so far contained within the March Channel Up. As long as it stays above the Channel's bottom, we expect a short-term (at least) rebound to test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 28800. Below it, we expect the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) to be tested at 24000. In addition, the 1D RSI hit the 20.45 Support level (massively oversold) that was formed on the bottom of June 18 2022.
But a weekly candle closing below the 1W MA50 could be catastrophic and reverse the long-term trend to bearish again. Do you think that's the case? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT Swing trade signal from me!!!Hello Everyone. I want talk about Bitcoin price prediction. We are close to high movement. in this idea i will talk about everything and the reasons why i am going to long it.
After big consolidation we saw price came slowly down but not strong, it stopped to 2023 High , tried to brake that LVL many times but there was strong sellers who dropped the price, in last week we had some liquidity swings, when it was second liquidity swing i though it was continue of bullish trend, i long it and i got stop ( i will link that idea in this post ) Friday we had one more liquidity swing but after that price has slow little range movement.
Why i am going to long - we are close to weekly trendline, we are close to weekly support and Daily Fibonacci 50.00 LVL, after touch on this trendline we saw big bullish movement. this all thing is in one point, with my strategy 28350 it the best point for open long position, if price will not come at this point i will not open my long position, in addition on USDT Dominance we have some range movement which coming slowly up side but it has strong resistance of Daily Fibonacci LVL. on bitcoin next week i think we will see big liquidity swing which will be good signal from big guys they are going to long.
Here is my 2 price possible move of bitcoin.
1 Bullish - price coming to 28350 point where we have weekly support, daily Fibonacci 50.00 LVL, weekly trendline and liquidity swing zone, it has strong reaction from that point and going up side.
2 Bearish - price is not strong at 28350 LVL it braking big support zone and resistance and coming down.
We are close!!!! Be patient!!!!
IF I WILL STOP ITS OKAY!!!
BTC current price direct short
After BTC fell from the daily high of 31800
Now there is a shock rise
The next wave will continue to fall
Trend line 29600-29700 first layout a wave of short selling
The current price of 29400 is directly short
This wave of empty orders is best to deviate from the bottom of the daily line level
Below the target of 28500, we are considering doing more
BITCOIN The secret buy based on the GOLD/SPX ratio!This is not the first time we post this analysis but it as it starts to get increasingly relevant again, we thought it would be the perfect timing to refresh your memory. As you can see we are on the 1W time-frame, charting Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against the GOLD/SPX ratio(blue trend-line). The conclusion that this comparison offers can be very valuable.
When the GOLD/SPX ratio peaks and starts pulling back, Bitcoin starts the Parabolic Rally of its Bull Cycle. At the moment the GOLD/SPX ratio is at the bottom of a Channel Up similar to 2018 - 2019. When the ratio broke that Channel to the upside, it peaked as in February 2016 and started to decline. At the same time Bitcoin kick started its Parabolic Rally.
Will you be on the look-out for such a spike and then buy or buying now is as good as any? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin pushing towards 31K - BTCUSDHello traders,
BINANCE:BTCUSDT is trading in a range that we identified on May 2022 as a liquidity gap.
As predicted trading turned into this box to fill te previous liquidity gap.
At the moment we need a validation to confirm a break below or above this box.
There are good chances of a break as there is a large bullish flag pattern on the daily timeframe.
In the short term we will see bulls pushing bitcoin around 31K.
I will update this idea in the next few days.
Upvote and comment with your idea.
Thank you all for the support over the years.
BITCOIN This is the last barrier standing before going parabolicBack in May we first showed on this channel the unique Bullish Cross that the KST indicator was about to make and how the previous three clear (July 2020, January 2016 and June 2013), all have kickstarted major Parabolic Rallies.
The Bullish Cross was completed in late May, BTC rose again in June on a new yearly High but failed again to break above its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line). This is the last Resistance standing on a Cyclical basis as in the previous Cycles once the 3W MA50 broke, it turned into Support (exception of course the COVID flash crash in March 2020) that guided the price into the Bull Cycle's final parabolic rally.
But what do you think? Is the MA50 the last barrier for Bitcoin before turning it into Support and breaking out parabolically? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN rally starting and next Top expected at least $200k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a 1D Double Bottom and seems to have priced the final low before a new rally that will take it to a new yearly high. The price is already on a 15 day high and it is an excellent time now to look at potential highs for this Cycle.
As we've done in the past, we will rely on the long-term time-frames for a more meaningful illustration of BTC's historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), on a 8-month rally that hasn't been anything like short-term Bear Cycle rallies. The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib at the time of (the next) Halving 4 (April 2024) will be above $200000, and as we know after each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $200k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
Do you think that we will see $200k by 2025 Q3? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 3D Golden Cross just formed! Road to ATH begins!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed a new Golden Cross pattern, this time on the 3D chart. Naturally the price is trading above both the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3D MA200 (orange trend-line).
In the previous 2 Cycles, once the Cross took place, the 3D MA200 turned into a Support (technical exception of course is March 2020 and the COVID crash, which is though a Black Swan event, the price would have continued upwards if it wasn't for that). With the 3D MA50 guiding the price, the next stop for the uptrend that started was the All Time High (ATH).
Due to the Libra euphoria and other positive fundamentals regarding adoption that delivered the 2019 3D Golden Cross faster, it took BTC around 100 days more to reach the ATH in 2020. It could be a fair estimate that Bitcoin would have reached the current ATH ($69000) by around this time next year.
But what do you think? Is this final Golden Cross the ticket to a new ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD Analysis 2Aug2023Bitcoin ... I see for now the price is more likely to bearish. If you look at the market structure (if you have trouble seeing the market structure, I help with H-L-H-L notation) the possibility of continuing the bearish trend is still quite high. Although there is a possibility of limited bullish up to SND, but I am sure prices still tend to bearish in the next few weeks.
BITCOIN volume is decreasing, yet price is rising. What to do?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been extending its recovery since late November, following the FTX crash but is doing so on a Decreasing Volume. In fact the volume is currently on historically low levels. Decreasing volume is associated with easy price manipulation and rightly so it is getting a lot of market participants worried as during rallies it tends to make the trend fragile.
** Decreasing volume in previous Cycles **
A simple look however, at past Bull Cycles is enough to provide a good understanding of the current situation. This chart (4D time-frame) shows that there was Decreasing Volume following all previous major market bottoms, especially in times of extreme capitulation such as the March 2020 COVID crash, or the August 2015 Bitfinex crash. With the FTX crash in early November 2022 being such a capitulation even, there should be no surprise that the volume has been decreasing ever since. BTC however has doubled since then, indicating that this whole period has been nothing but another Accumulation Phase for smart money near the bottom of the Bull Cycle. We can strongly claim that this is a standard post-bottm Cycle rally.
** The Vortex Gap **
Besides this correlation, you may also have a look at the Vortex Indicator. Every time the Decreasing Volume leads to a Low, the VI- (red) crosses below the VI+ (blue) and opens the gap. A VI- hitting 0.5000 has historically happened when BTC made a Higher High within the new Bull Cycle. Right now it is still only at 0.9100, potentially indicating that there is significant potential for a deep Higher High.
But what do you think? Are you worried about this decreasing volume while the price has been rising or agree with the historic modle that this is common after Cycle bottoms? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Amazing historic symmetry targeting $49000 in NovemberThis is a break-through analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame that we posted a while ago but couldn't look more relevant today and can accurately explain the low consolidation of the last few weeks. It compares the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017.
** Amazing Cycle symmetry justifies current consolidation **
As you see there is so far an astonishing symmetry between the two, with the current price consolidation, after almost hitting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, resembling that of late February - early April 2016. For the Fibonacci calculations we have used the price top and bottom as suggested by the 1W RSI, which is the backbone of the analysis. This indicates that the Cycle Top (on RSI terms) was on the week of April 12 2021 (and not Nov 08 2021) while the Cycle Bottom was on the week of June 13 2022 (and not in November 2022, which was in the aftermath of the FTX crash).
** The Phases of the Cycle **
So far the three Phases have lasted almost the same time. We are now half-way through Phase 4 (green), which in 2016 lasted for 28 weeks and on its end hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, this is a highly probable target, with the 0.786 Fib being at $49000 and the 28 week span ends on November 13 2023. See how similar the 1W RSI fractals are between the two, forming a Triangle pattern with top and bottom on the exact same values.
** Halving, 1W MA50 and conclusion **
Basically Phase 4 is the first bullish attempt of BTC within the new Bull Cycle, after Phase 3 (yellow) which is the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the first Accumulation period. Phase 4 is essentially the prologue of the market before the parabolic rally and the introduction to the Halving event. The next Halving is expected in April 2024. Based on this symmetry that is holding very strongly so far, BTC should have hit at least $49000 by then. We need to point out that from Phase 4 onwards, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into the Bull Cycles absolute Support level. Pull-backs near it are technically strong buy opportunities.
With the price having almost filled the 0.5 Fibonacci gap, do you think BTC will finish Phase 4 in a strong fashion and hit $49000 and the 0.786 level? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Holding key Cycle Support, preparing for 35k and 43k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is above the 0.5 Fibonacci Lower Lows trend-line that provided Support numerous times during the previous Cycle but when it finally closed a 1W candle below it (June 06 2022) it started the final bearish sequence.
Currently this is very positive for the upside's chances as the price has cleared the 0.5 Fib for more than a month and is currently on the 0 Fib level that closed all 1W candles above it from May 17 2021 to June 28 2021. BTC has managed to close above that for 5 straight week and if it repeats that again, we can see the final two bullish waves to 35000 and 43000 taking place. The key factor for such a price rally is the Higher Lows trend-line since the market bottom which is holding, while the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been re-tested in more than 4 months.
In fact, trading below the 1W MA50 was the majority of the Bear Cycle's price action (red arc). Since the closing above it 4 months ago we can argue that this is how the Bull Cycle's price action will unfold (green arc).
So do you think that the 0.0 Fib will give Bitcoin the necessary push for the 35k and 43k levels? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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