Bitcoin's Potential Drop to $42,000 Hinges on US NFP ReportBitcoin's Price Faces Potential Decline
Bitcoin is currently trading at $43,241, struggling to surpass the $44,500 mark, leading to minor corrections. While the broader market outlook leans towards an upward trend at the time of writing, the short-term picture suggests a potential downside.
This is evidenced by the Convergence Divergence Moving Average (MACD) indicator. The diminishing green bars indicate a weakening upward trend, signaling a potential decline in Bitcoin's price.
However, BTC is likely to retreat to $42,000 or $40,000 if the previously established support level is breached. This is a short-term scenario contingent on a stronger-than-expected NFP report. Yet, if the report is weaker or broader market signals shift towards an upward trend, a recovery from the $42,000 level becomes plausible. This would fuel an upward trajectory, pushing Bitcoin beyond $44,500 and undermining the bearish sentiment.
The market dynamics are closely tied to the upcoming NFP report, and a divergence from expectations could significantly impact Bitcoin's price movements. Traders will be watching for signals of either a deeper correction or a potential recovery based on the economic data.
Btcusdsignals
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Rally Sparks Enthusiastic MomentumAfter a period of consolidation, Bitcoin has undergone a rapid and decisive price surge. Successfully maintaining its position above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicative of robust and sustained bullish sentiment. The fanning out of the moving averages is often interpreted as a sign of increasing momentum.
Furthermore, recent green candles on the chart, characterized by large bodies, reflect strong buying pressure. The absence of long wicks suggests that pullbacks are swiftly being bought, demonstrating a solid presence of fundamental buying strength in the market. This scenario often aligns with institutional investment activity, as institutions tend to execute strategic, large-scale purchases rather than quick transactions.
In the immediate term, Bitcoin appears to be approaching resistance levels at recent highs, with potential pullbacks likely to test the strength of current support levels.
As Bitcoin enthusiasts closely monitor these developments, the market dynamics indicate a shift towards a more optimistic outlook, driven by both technical indicators and institutional investment behavior.
BITCOIN Megaphone breached! How high can the price go?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke yesterday above the Bullish Megaphone pattern that kept it at bay since the October 24 High. The previous Bullish Megaphone of September - October technically served as a consolidation belt before the price broke upwards to deliver a +31.86% peak from the Megaphone's last Higher Low and +40.50% from its first Low.
The ROC shows a similar behavioral structure between the two patterns. If it continues this way, then a new +31.50% leg will make a perfect contact on 48220, which is the March 28 2022 High, essentially the Bear Cycle's first Lower High and a key Resistance level of the current Bull Cycle. Technically, as long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds (has been doing so since Sep 28), that is a realistic end target for this bullish wave.
But what do you think? Do you agree that this is a likely extension for this rally before the price pulls back or you expect a pull back now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price Expected to Surge by 20% to $50,000 The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently on an upward trend. Surpassing the psychological level of $42,000 has sparked optimism, with Bloomberg setting an ambitious target for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. According to the news outlet, Bitcoin reaching $42,000 is just the beginning of a new crypto super cycle that could propel the world's largest token to over $500,000, as advocates claim it heralds a new monetary order making waves on Wall Street.
Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin is caught within a weekly supply zone ranging from $40,517 to $46,972. To confirm the continuation of the primary trend (upward on the weekly timeframe), the price needs to break and close above the midpoint of the supply barrier at $43,860.
A decisive move above this level could see Bitcoin extending its rally, turning the supply zone into a bullish trend-breaking tool as BTC aims for the forecasted psychological level of $50,000.
In the case of a significant price increase, the surge may encounter resistance at $55,560. It is even plausible to extrapolate these increases to the highest range of $66,098. Such a move would constitute a 56% increase from the current level.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this outlook as its upward movement indicates bullish momentum. Similarly, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) chart are green in the positive zone, signaling that the bull camp is leading the market. These factors add confidence to the optimistic viewpoint.
As Bitcoin continues to make headlines, market participants are closely watching for potential breakthroughs and milestones in its price journey.
BITCOIN Hello April 2022! 40k cleared!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above the psychological 40000 mark, trading now even above 41k. Those are levels that we haven't seen since the week of April 18 2022! And we don't know yet where this euphoric (on Fed, ETF anticipation) candle will stop.
Technically, the next Resistance level is the 48220 High that was the first Lower High made after the November 2021 All Time High, on the week of March 28 2022. With the current trend structure it is not unrealistic to hit this zone as the pattern remains a Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom. The current bullish leg resembles that of March 2023 and the price action now is on a course to price the new Higher High near the 48220 Resistance.
Beyond that it is high speculation but if it continues to repeat the waves of the Channel Up and the sequence after the April 10 2023 High, we could see a Falling Wedge bottoming close to Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) and as you are all aware of, the supply shock that the Halving causes to BTC, should gradually set in motion the Parabolic Rally of the Bull Cycle.
In addition to the above, BTC is about to complete in the next 2-3 weeks the first ever Golden Cross on the 1W time-frame, which is when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). It will be really interesting to see how the market will react for the first time to such a bullish technical pattern.
But what do you think? Do you think that Channel Up is too scripted to be true? If not, can Bitcoin test 48k next straight away or a pull-back to test the middle/ bottom of the Demand Zone would be more realistic? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price May Drop to $40,000, Key Indicators Suggest The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the psychological level of $40,000 and could erase it before undergoing a correction. Several bullish indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), have strengthened the prospects for further price increase. The RSI, a momentum indicator, indicates increasing momentum with its position at 68, suggesting there is still room for upward movement before the cryptocurrency king could be considered overbought.
Furthermore, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is in positive territory, with green bars on the chart, indicating that the bullish camp is leading the market. Therefore, increased buying pressure could see the price of Bitcoin rise from the current level of $39,462 (as of 8:00 AM GMT), surpassing the recent high within the range of $39,778 before testing the psychological level of $40,000.
BITCOIN on the verge of a global money supply rally.On today's study we plot Bitcoin (BTCUSD) against two unique formulae that encompass the basic essence of the global money supply. The formula in blue has a differentiation towards Chinese bond yields while the orange on the Chinese Yuan. Both are regressed against the U.S. Dollar and the batch of the U.S. Balance Sheet, Chinese Central Bank Balance Sheet and the ECB's Assets.
BTC bottoms exactly when the orange trend-line bottoms and it starts the parabolic rally of its Bull Cycle when the blue trend-line bottoms on a Lower Low. Right now blue has started to rise after just bottoming on a Lower Low.
This is contrary to common belief and traditional Halving theory, but according to the above monetary metrics BTC may just be starting a new parabolic rally much earlier than anticipated.
Do you agree or it's too soon and you'll wait for the Halving? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Soars in January: ETFs Await Approval & Price Prediction The Bitcoin Spot ETF may see widespread approval in January, according to insights from Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, who detailed the updated application from asset manager BlackRock.
Bitcoin prices continue their upward trajectory, triggering a short-term liquidation of $8.94 million. The total number of entities issuing Bitcoin Spot ETFs has risen to 13, following Pando's ETF registration. Pando, a European ETF giant, has submitted an S-1 application for the Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust.
Eric Balchunas, the Bloomberg ETF analyst, highlighted the late filings and shared details about BlackRock's meeting with the Securities and Exchange Commission's Trading and Markets division. Balchunas informed his followers through a recent tweet that the asset management giant presented a modified physical model based on feedback received during their November 20 meeting. The U.S. financial regulatory agency had previously requested Bitcoin Spot ETF applicants to amend their profiles to create liquidity. Applicants may continue debating cash creation and ETF distribution using physical assets with the regulatory body.
Predictions surrounding the Bitcoin Spot ETF have spurred a recovery in both the spot and futures markets. Seyffart recently provided detailed information on ProShares BITO, an ETF futures fund that recently reached an all-time high. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's GBTC discount has narrowed, touching a record low in anticipation of BTC ETF approval. Bitcoin holders are eagerly awaiting the potential approval of various BTC Spot ETFs in January 2024.
According to Coinglass data, the Bitcoin price surge led to the liquidation of $8.94 million in sell orders overnight. Anonymous crypto analyst Crypto Tony assessed the Bitcoin price chart and predicted a rise to $40,000 before a potential correction, marking an initial decline to around $36,000.
In summary, the outlook for Bitcoin includes the possibility of widespread approval for Spot ETFs, contributing to market optimism, while analysts anticipate further price increases before a potential correction.
"Bitcoin Could Rally Northward on Potential RSI Intersection" Bitcoin (BTC) has breached the resistance level of $38,008, though not decisively, currently trading at $38,139 at the time of writing. There is still potential for an extension towards the higher range at $38,414 or, in the case of a strong upward movement, pushing towards $40,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving upward and is on the verge of crossing above the signal line (yellow band). Historically, each time this intersection occurs, BTC has responded with a bold upward move, interpreting it as a buying signal.
Similarly, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicator remains in positive territory, indicating that the bullish camp maintains control despite strong downward price pressure. On the flip side, increasing selling pressure could lead Bitcoin to drop below the support level of $38,008 or, worse, test the support level of $35,487. In a more severe scenario, a downturn could cause BTC to lose the confluence support between the horizontal line and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $33,912. Breaking and closing below this level would invalidate the bullish argument, setting the stage for a further southward extension towards the psychological level of $30,000.
Asian Stocks Advance Amid Dollar's Decline vs Fed's Rate OutlookAsian equities saw positive momentum on Tuesday, coupled with the US dollar hitting a three-month low, reflecting investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's completion of the interest rate hike cycle. The focus remains on a pivotal inflation report slated for later this week.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan recorded a 0.39% increase, signaling an impressive nearly 7% surge in November – the strongest monthly performance since January.
Japan's Nikkei, despite a 0.20% slip, achieved an 8% gain for the month, marking its most robust monthly performance in three years.
Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist at the National Australia Bank (NABZY), emphasized the significant role of central bank policy outlook in boosting risk appetite in November.
Indicators of easing inflationary pressures align with the belief that numerous central banks have concluded their tightening cycles, setting the stage for anticipated interest rate cuts next year, as stated by Catril.
Current market expectations suggest a 96.8% likelihood that the US central bank will maintain interest rates next month. The likelihood of rate cuts is projected to increase in mid-2024, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Investors will closely monitor the Fed's preferred inflation gauge on Thursday and eurozone consumer inflation data this week for a clearer understanding of inflation trends.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, on Monday, asserted that the central bank's efforts to control price growth are ongoing. She cited robust wage growth and lingering uncertainties, even as inflation pressures ease in the eurozone.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Friday speech will be scrutinized for insights into potential future interest rate directions.
China's CSI 300 index declined by 0.23%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.70% a day after data indicated slower profit growth in Chinese industrial companies for October.
Monday's US data revealed a larger-than-expected decline in new home sales for single-family homes in October due to higher mortgage rates. However, the housing segment remained supported by persistent shortages of available properties.
Weaker-than-expected data impacted Treasury bond yields, with the 10-year benchmark yield shedding 9.6 basis points on Monday. During Asian hours, they rose by 1.6 basis points to 4.404%.
The US Dollar Index, gauging the greenback against a basket of currencies, declined to 103.11, its lowest since August 31. The Japanese yen gained 0.28%, reaching 148.25 per USD.
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday following a significant decline the previous day, with investors anticipating the OPEC+ meeting this week and potential supply constraints in the coming year.
US crude oil rose by 0.31% to $75.09 per barrel, and Brent returned above $80.00. Gold spot prices increased by 0.1% to $2,015.00 per ounce, slightly below the three-month high reached on Monday.
Bitcoin Mining Tool Cleanspark Gaining MomentumThe daily chart below provides a more detailed view of the early stages of the red wave III. From the December 2022 low, a bullish price cycle unfolded within the red wave 1. In this context, the black wave ((v)) displays an expansive phase, concluding the red wave 1 in July 2023 at $7.60. From the peak, an accumulation pattern within the red wave 2 emerged in the form of a zigzag.
Firstly, the black wave ((a)) found its bottom in August 2023 at $4.91. Subsequently, a recovery in the black wave ((b)) set a pivot in the same month at $6.86. From there, the black wave ((c)) broke below the $4.91 low, initiating a downtrend. The target range of $4.16-$2.50 was achieved, and the price is now rebounding.
The preferred outlook suggests that the red wave 2 concluded in October 2023. With the price above $3.38, the next bullish phase within the red wave 3 has commenced. The short-term target is the range of $9.25-$12.88, and potentially even higher. For long-term scenarios, the current price below $6 presents an excellent investment opportunity. While medium-term investors can anticipate a potential 7-fold reward for their risk, long-term rewards may reach up to 25 times and beyond, considering the current commitment.
Bitcoin's Price Trend Questioned as ETF Momentum FadesBitcoin price action raises questions about the upward trend as ETF momentum wanes. With buyer liquidity collected on November 9th at $39,149, the potential for a BTC reversal is significant. Leading indicators are present - decreasing volume, diminishing liquidity, bearish divergence, and more. Given these signals, if BTC undergoes a correction, it is likely to explore the following support zones:
Reasonable price range, extending from $32,833 to $30,299.
Weekly support level at $31,376.
Psychological level at $30,000 USD.
While a correction seems plausible, investors should note that any announcements regarding the approval of a Bitcoin ETF still have the potential to propel BTC higher. Therefore, bearish proponents must exercise extreme caution, as a sudden reversal could push Bitcoin beyond the $40,000 mark.
BITCOIN Monthly RSI tells you where the Cycle Top will be!Following our recent Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Thanksgiving study on the trend-line angles, we decided to expand it a bit further and apply a similar reasoning on the RSI, this time on the 1M (monthly) time-frame.
The result is more than informative as, with the additional use of the Fibonacci Channel levels for better display, we see that from bottom to top, every Cycle displays an RSI trend-line on a 40° angle (approximately). Applying the same measurement on the current Cycle, we get a rough date for the next Top at around March 2025. This doesn't of course give a dollar figure of BTC's price at that time but rather tells you to (at least) start considering taking (some) profits on your holdings.
Do you agree with that model? Are going to sell around that date? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Aims for $40,000 with Tether Whale SupportThe price of Bitcoin surpassed the $38,300 mark for the first time in 18 months as demand for BTC steadily increased. Catalysts such as anticipation of the U.S. financial regulatory authority approving the physically settled Bitcoin ETF and growing demand from Tether whales could potentially push the BTC price even higher. Among the contributors to Bitcoin's rise to $38,300, prominent Tether whales have emerged. Based on data from the cryptocurrency information tracking tool Santiment, the top 100 Tether addresses have added an additional $1.67 billion to their holdings in the past six months. As the buying power of these stablecoin whales increases, the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $40,000 also rises. To establish the correlation between Tether whales and the Bitcoin price surge, Santiment highlights the reduction in holdings of USDT tokens by whales over two weeks, coinciding with BTC rising to $38,300. Tether whales have utilized their stablecoin to accumulate Bitcoin and drive demand for the largest cryptocurrency.
During the Bitcoin price decline in August, stablecoin whales accumulated BTC tokens. The current trend for Bitcoin has been upward since November 2022, with the price of BTC at $37,795 on Binance after a recent pullback from the local peak of $38,380. Bitcoin is targeting the $40,000 mark, representing an almost 6% increase from the current level.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Bitcoin broke through a strong resistance level at $37,980 on November 24, but the bullish camp is struggling to sustain the breakthrough. This indicates strong defense from the bearish side. Both moving averages are sloping upward, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 61 suggests minimal resistance to the upside. If buyers maintain the price above $37,980, the BTC/USDT pair could reach $40,000.
This level could witness another tough battle between bulls and bears, but if buyers gain the upper hand, this pair could surge to $48,000. Time is running out for the bears. To weaken momentum, they would have to push the price below the 20-day EMA. The short-term trend will turn negative below $34,800.
BTCUSDT Potential Next Targets!!BTCUSDT (4h Chart) Technical analysis
BTCUSDT (4h Chart) Currently trading at $37000
Buy level: Above $36800
Stop loss: Below $34500
TP1: $39000
TP2: $42000
TP3: $45000
TP4: $48000
Max Leverage 3x
Always keep Stop loss
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Bitcoin Emergency Analysis! Failed Triple-Top, Breakout Now!Bitcoin is attempting to break out of Weekly Resistance right now! My previous analysis showed a potential triple-top playing out which did bring us down to $35,700. That bear breakout was immediately erased and the price rocketed back into the bull channel.
How do we trade this?
If you're not already long from the $36,000 area, don't long just yet because this 4HR candle has not closed. Never trade a candle that hasn't closed yet, it could turn into a bear signal in an instant. If this candle closes on or near its high, consider a long with a stop loss just below the Weekly Resistance line.
If a bear signal bar plays out, wait for a confirmation bar closing on or near its low below the Weekly Resistance and set a stop loss just above the resistance line. A reasonable first take profit target is $36,000 at the minor trend line, then the 200EMA below that around $35,000.
Key Points
1. Bear Breakout of Bull Channel Failed!
2. Triple-Top Reversal Pattern Failed!
3. Still in Bull Channel, Remain Long.
4. Bull Breakout Attempting Now!
5. Wait for this 4HR Bull Bar to Close above Weekly Resistance.
6. RSI near 70.00 Level, Weak Indicator, Worth Noting.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Bitcoin Holds Above $37,000 Amidst Thanksgiving Holiday TradeCryptocurrency values experienced a modest decline on Thursday, attributed to lower trading volumes in Bitcoin and Ether during the Thanksgiving holiday. Meanwhile, some altcoins demonstrated upward momentum even as the major cryptocurrencies saw a dip in their prices. After surpassing the $37,000 threshold earlier in the week and testing the $38,000 resistance multiple times, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a retracement of short-term profits on Thursday, as traders opted to secure gains ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Notably, Crypto Myths pointed out that a significant portion of selling pressure on leading cryptocurrencies stems from short-term holders liquidating their BTC positions back into exchanges after breaching the $37,000 mark.
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! Let's see Bitcoin's price on this date!Let me begin by wishing everyone in the TradingView community a Happy Thanksgiving! A day of joy, gathering and happy family moments!
Aren't you curious to see where the price of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading on this day in the previous years? If so, have a look:
2010: $0.28
2011: $2.49
2012: $12.51
2013: $813
2014: $376
2015: $328
2016: $739
2017: $8,771
2018: $4,015
2019: $7,150
2020: $18,764
2021: $58,927
2022: $16,353
2023: $37,000
So the obvious question is this. Do you see the pattern??
Since 2009 there have been 10 Thanksgiving dates where the price of BTC was higher than the previous year and only 4 where it was lower. Only once we've seen two straight red Thanksgivings and at least two green Thanksgiving dates follow. This year we have a green one, more than double the price of 2022 and in fact this is the first time BTC doubled coming from a red Thanksgiving since 2016.
An interesting pattern that arises on this chart is that when measuring the line that connects the Thanksgiving closer to the Cycle Top back to years, we can see that its angle is lower (naturally) by a certain rate. From 2015 to 2017 it measured the previous angle x 0.64. From 2019 to 2021 it was the previous angle x 0.68. From 2022 to 2024 based on this progressive pattern, is should be the previous angle x 0.72 (0.68 + 0.04). That gives us a rough value just under $80000 for the next Thanksgiving (November 28 2024). It is very possible that the Cycle top will be priced higher a few weeks after on an aggressive spike above $100k, as BTC often does (only the June 2011 Cycle Top was way off, being in the middle of two Thanksgivings).
But what do you think about this model and its projection? Are you expecting a BTC price around 80k on the next Thanksgiving and if not, what is your estimate? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Faces Downward Pressure Bitcoin's price experienced a decline on Tuesday and Wednesday following a series of significant legal developments in the industry. The BTC/USD pair dropped to a low of $36,260, significantly below the year's peak of $38,000.
The BTC/USD pair retreated after reaching a high of $37,800 on Tuesday. On the 4-hour chart, it remains within an ascending channel represented by black lines. It is currently consolidating at the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 and EMA 25.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below 50. Upon closer inspection, it has also formed a triple-top pattern, often a sign of a price decline. The neckline of this pattern is at $34,740, the lowest point on November 14th.
Therefore, the outlook for this currency pair suggests a potential price decrease, with the next level to watch being $34,738. This perspective will be confirmed if the price moves below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. An alternative scenario is a recovery for this pair, moving above this week's high of $37,800.
BITCOIN ETF what?? This is a cyclical USD-fueled rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing in the past 30 days the first legitimate medium-term rally since March - April. The ETF acceptance anticipation has been cited as one of the reasons but after the SEC's latest delay, we see that it hasn't affected BTC's price as much and the reason is something else. Perhaps the strongest technical reason why Bitcoin has been rallying, is the sharp decline of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Displayed by the green trend-line, we can see that its October 09 peak coincided with Bitcoin's rally.
DXY tends to peak first and after it starts to decline, Bitcoin (also a general observation for commodities too, not limited to digital assets) catches as a few days later. As you can see on this chart (1W time-frame), it is a cyclical behavioral pattern where an initial decline on the DXY (red Flag) fuels BTC's last pre-Halving rally. When this DXY pattern (blue Arc) ends, it makes a Higher High peak outside the pattern and gets hammered aggressively (red hammer). This starts BTC parabalic rally, what we call at Tradingshot "Post Halving expansion". We are expecting that the following summer.
Do you think however that a SEC ETF approval earlier in 2024 will dramatically increase the chances of such a rally happening earlier or it's more tied to the DXY? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Price Faces Key Support Check Amid Market Weakness The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is displaying weakness, registering a 3% decline in a day, with most of these losses attributed to news surrounding the Binance exchange. Testing a crucial support level at $36,788, and with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating weakening momentum, BTC could face further declines. Increased selling pressure below the critical $36,788 level within the extended supply zone ranging from $36,276 to $37,301 could present an opportunity for an extended downturn, with experts predicting a potential drop to the psychological level of $30,000.
Currently, the bars on the Awesome Oscillator (AO) charts have dipped into the red and inch slightly towards the daily midpoint. This signals a gradual dominance by the bearish camp. Conversely, rising buying pressure from investors seeking to capitalize on the $36,788 retest could push the Bitcoin price higher. The first target would be surpassing the local peak at $37,972 before testing the upper range at $37,980 and ultimately achieving the psychological level of $40,000, representing a 10% increase from the current level.
BTCUSDTDear Traders,
btcusd has been bullish ever since it dropped to 15000 area from where price just skyrocketed. This sudden jumped in price is due to economic side where investors are more keen in investing in crypto assets than in stock markets or DXY itself. The war conflict also influenced btcusd.
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