Bitcoin USD Idea H4Here is my view for BTCUSD on H4. The price could go down, you can put a pending order on the Order block or find an entry on LTF within OB Zone. Trade Safe!
Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN The amazing symmetry of Cycles shows Bull end of year !!This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the wider 1W time-frame that compares the symmetry of each of its past Cycles. Even though there are certain variables involved, I will keep the post short as the chart is pretty self-explanatory.
The idea is to measure each Cycle on a start to end basis that is primarily defined by the moment a Higher Lows trend-line starts that connect the Higher Lows before the Cycles Peak (All Time High at the time) and those that later form the bottom of the Bear Phase. Then for better illustration purposes, a Circle is drawn around the trend-line. The diameter of the Circle is 134 candles, i.e. weeks which is translated to 469 days + 469 days (938 days in total) for each half. The first half represents the mania phase of the final parabolic rally of the Bull Phase and ends after the first correction where investors can still get out with manageable losses and the second half represents the core Bear Phase. The end of the Bear Phase is marked when the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again.
Then a period of roughly 50 weeks (350 days) starts until it touches the diameter of the next Cycle. The symmetry between all those Cycles is remarkable indeed. Notice how consistent the Higher Lows, within this 134 weeks long in diameter Cycles, are. Also they maintain a roughly 65°-70° angle in the first half below the Higher Lows and a roughly 110°-115° angle in the second. At the same time the Lower Highs trend-line that led to the Cycle Bottom is roughly on a -30° angle.
With this model applied on the current Cycle, we see that a break above the 1W MA50 shouldn't happen before the end of November 2022. Of course we always have to consider the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is touched on Bear Phase bottoms.
Do you think this amazing symmetry will fulfil the pattern yet again and consolidate until November? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN Ascending Triangle on a 4H Golden CrossThis is a rather short-term Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 4H time-frame. There are three major developments:
1. The formation of an Ascending Triangle pattern similar with the one of February - March.
2. The break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 10.
3. The formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200.
As you see, despite the break above the 4H MA200, the price still got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that started the correction after the March 28 High. That means that for now, the longer-term pattern of this bearish trend-line, overpowers the shorter term pattern of the Ascending Triangle. If the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, it should capitalize on the Golden Cross and most likely break above the Triangle itself. On the Feb - March Triangle, the break-out was limited to below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little over 34000.
Notice that the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is slightly below the 1.236 Fib ext, so that is a major Resistance cluster right there. A 1D candle close above those can in my opinion complete the full bullish sequence to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (39300 roughly). On the other hand a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Ascending Triangle, should finally test the much anticipated 1W MA200 (green trend-line), which during the previous BTC Cycles, was the ultimate bottom formation. Keep an eye on the 4H RSI as well, the Lower Highs suggest that a pull-back to 27500 is technically plausible before the break-out is decided.
What is more likely to happen for you first? Break of the Ascending Triangle upwards to 39300 or downwards to the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN 1W Bearish Cross with Gaussian turning red.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just made a Bearish Cross between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for the first time since the previous Bear Cycle. In fact that is a technical feat only seen during Bear Cycles and most notably around the bottom. More specifically, in the 2018 Bear Cycle, this Bearish Cross took place 1 week after the market bottom, while in the 2014 Bear Cycle it took place 1 week before it.
In addition to that Cross, another important historical indicator that is typically seen near bottoms, flashed a signal. The Gaussian Channel just turned red for the first time since July 2019. However, in both previous Cycles, when this indicator turned red, the price dropped around another -50% before making the market Bottom. We have to keep an eye on that, even though a symmetrical drop would pull the price as low as 16000, which isn't only below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also (considerably) below the Top of the previous Cycle (19800), which has never happened before historically (price in the new Cycle never re-tests the Top of the previous Cycle).
With the 1W RSI rebounding on a Lower Lows patterns similar to the January 2015 bottom formation, it seems more likely for Bitcoin to consolidate there for a few weeks as part of an accumulation phase that will form the bottom and give way to a gradual price recovery by the end of the summer.
So what do you think? Will the current 1W MA20/100 Bearish Cross form the bottom around the current levels or another -50% drop will take place as suggested by the Gaussian Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN The implications of this week's 4H MA200 rejection.Perhaps the biggest development this week for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the clear rejection exactly on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Typically when that takes place during an uptrend, it favors more the dominant (bearish) trend than prepares a switch to a bullish reversal. But let's see how similar patterns have developed price actions in recent cases going as far back as the 2018 Bear Cycle bottom.
First I need to make clear that the RSI indicator on the panes below the chart is on the 1D time-frame and not the 4H. First case is the December 2021 pattern, which as you see had also a clear 4H MA200 rejection, then a marginal break above but that wasn't enough with the price extending the bearish trend all the way to 33000 before stabilizing.
In June 2021 the price broke almost 2k above the 4H MA200 before being rejected to make a marginally Lower Low than the one that led to the 4H MA200 and then stabilize and gradually prepare a strong Bull run to a new All Time High.
Now going back to the December 2018 Bear Cycle Bottom, the 4H MA200 test came just 5 days later with the price clearly breaking above the 4H MA200 but as with the previous cases, dropping back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This time however it didn't make a Lower Low, holding the December bottom which gradually gave way to the accumulation that paved the way for the May - June rally.
Notice how on all cases, the 1D RSI printed the same pattern. And practically it was only when BTC broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) that a recovery was established (though in the case of 2021 didn't last for long, even though it made Higher Highs). The 1D MA50 is currently at 34390.
What do you think? Do you expect Bitcoin to make one last push lower based on this model? Or reverse to a bullish trend if the 1D MA50 breaks first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN The Channel that is dominating the trend since 2019Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now on the third week (1W candle) after the May 09 weekly low and the first week (so far at least) that is green after a historic streak of 9 red weeks. For this analysis I am using the 1W time-frame as it better displays what I want to show you today and that is a Fibonacci Channel on the log scale that started after the June 24 2019 1W High.
This Channel has so far four perfect touches, the June 24 2019 (Higher High) 1W candle, the March 09 2020 (Higher Low) that was the COVID crash, the March 08 2021 (near Higher High) and the recent May 09 2022 1W candle as the new Higher Low. Or at least if it holds it will be classified as a Higher Low because as the longer term Cyclical models show, Bitcoin tends to price a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now at 22190.
The similarities both in price and RSI terms between the two sequences within the Channel are remarkable. The 2019/ early 2020 pattern started rising within a Channel Up after an aggressive correction. Then as the price turned bearish and broke below the the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the new correction started with the 1D MA100 rejecting, which only broke once in both cases. That was the last break (where also the 1W RSI broke above its (yellow) MA line) before the final capitulation. In March 2020 that was the COVID crash, in 2022 it remains to be seen if the May 09 1W candle is the equivalent.
There is a Resistance formed be the last break above the 1D MA100 in both cases. In 2020 when the price broke above it, the new Bull Run started. We can also claim that it was when the 1W RSI broke above its MA trend-line that the trend entered into long-term bullish territory again.
Do you think this Channel will hold and continue to dictate the price action? Or Bitcoin will eventually hit the 1W MA200 as prior Cycles did? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSD intraday trading & flying to the moon🚀 29 MAY 2022Bitcoin intraday trading alert
3 steps must fulfill before entry
1. 1st breakout done
2. Retracement done
3. 2nd breakout and see you in the sky🚀
Hope you like my Trading Alerts~
Cheers~
BITCOIN Summer 2021 Déjà vu?Just a quick Sunday fractal analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD).
Since the late March 2022 High, the price has dropped to a little more than -47%, trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 1.5 month. The sequence I compare this to is the drop from the May 10 2021 High, which initially bottomed at a little more than -49% then made a Lower Low shake out on June 22 2021 and after trading sideways, the consolidation/ accumulation ended on July 25 2021 when the price broke above the 1D MA50 again.
A similar 62 day consolidation puts a potential end to a sideways trend on July 13 2022. The LMACD being already on a Bullish Cross and the RSI rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier, are identical between now and 2021. DO you think as this model suggests, that a break above the 1D MA50 will kick-start a new uptrend and if so can this be achieved in a deja vu manner by the end of July again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN The huge significance of the Cyclical Pivot Trend-lineSince my recent analysis on the 'Buy Zone since April 2013' attracted so much interest and reactions by the community, I've decided to extend it. On the current idea, you see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 2D time-frame with the Buy Zone and 1W MA200 (red trend-line present). This time, I've designated the current and past two Cycles with a Pivot line that I'm calling 'The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line'.
** The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line **
This trend-line starts as a Resistance on each Bear Cycle. Then after the 1st Half of the Cycle is completed (red Triangle), the price breaks above the pivot and trades within a pattern that resembles a Channel Up (blue shape), but always above the trend-line, until the bottom is made.
** The 2D RSI **
In the past two Cycles, this bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200, which is currently around 22000 and rising. With the 2D RSI having reached below the 30.000 oversold level and rebounded, that bottom is certainly close. If the RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line, more particularly the (3) leg before the 1W MA200 is hit, then that would mean that the Bear Cycle's Bottom is already priced.
This could mean trading sideways within the blue Channel Down as Bitcoin did in late January - early February 2015 and late December 2018 - January 2019.
So how important do you think this Cyclical Pivot Trend-line is at the moment? Do you think the bottom will be priced on the 1W MA200 or will the RSI break upwards meaning it's already priced in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN The Golden combo Bottom rule. Are we that close?This isn't the first time I use the time Fibonacci levels along with the horizontal retracement levels when comparing past Cycles on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), but it may be more relevant than ever to refresh your memory as we are getting close to the desired buy levels on the long-term.
This chart is on the 1W time-frame and first and foremost is dictated by the Halving events, where I've also included the next one (Halving 4 in March 2024). The time Fibs start from one Halving event and end on the next one. The horizontal Fib retracement levels measure from the bottom of the Bear Cycle to the top of the next Bull Cycle.
As you see, the bottom on each of the past two Cycles has never been priced below the 0.382 horizontal Fib or after the 0.618 time Fib. At the same time, a confirmed buy on a cyclical basis, was always when the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross.
Right now, the 0.382 Fib is roughly around 21300, just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 0.618 time Fib is on September 19 2022. That means that based on this model, it is very unlikely to see a price bottom below 21300 or after the coming September. Is the price already good for you to make a long-term buy or will you wait for the 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross and the 1W RSI 30.00 reading? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN The accurate LMACD bottom projectionOn this analysis, I am looking into Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W and 1M time-frames and how a certain LMACD level has previously revealed the bottom.
** The LMACD's Triangle **
The chart on the left is on the 1W time-frame. This isn't the first time I approach the LMACD (MACD indicator on the logarithmic scale) using this method, I've mentioned this a couple years ago, but as you see, the LMACD has been trending within a Triangle pattern. The indicator is very close to the Higher Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Triangle. If you notice, the price bottom of BTC's Bear Cycles has always been marked before the LMACD touched the Higher Lows trend-line on every Cycle. In fact, in January 2015, it didn't touch that trend-line and before it made a Bullish Cross, the bottom was already priced in. This Cycle's LMACD final correction phase is much more similar to 2014/15 then the other Cycles.
** The LMACD bottom trend-line and the RSI Support **
Perhaps the most important indication that the LMACD can give us in long-term Cycle analysis is on the 1M time-frame, which is the chart on the right. As you see, every Cycle bottomed before the 1M LMACD hit the Higher Lows of the Triangle. That trend-line is common on every Cycle and happens to be the 0.7 Fibonacci retracement level (0.14). That was the level that the 1M candles of January 2015 and December 2018 made bottoms on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Most likely, the LMACD will touch this level by the end of this month.
Also it is interesting to point out how symmetrical the Highs and Lows are in this Triangle. Naturally the first High and Low were on the 0.0 and 1.0 Fib respectively. The ones that followed were on the 0.1 and 0.9 Fibs, while the last High was on the 0.3. If this symmetry continues, the current Low should be on the 0.7, so besides its historical importance, we have another reason to expect a bottom there.
At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the 1M RSI, which is approaching the 43.70 - 44.50 level, which has been its long-term Support Zone since its inception. Most likely by next month the latest, the RSI will make contact with that Support. Note that in January 2019, which was the last Support test, the price bottomed the month before.
** Conclusion **
This is an indicator that has never failed so far and for those who remember or have been following me here, it was the indicator that helped me project the bottom of the 2018 Cycle. Do you also think that Bitcoin will price the bottom by the end of this month? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN entered a Buy Zone holding since April 2013.On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, I am bringing to you a fresh long-term perspective on the 1W time-frame using the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement/ extension levels. It is a Channel Up as you see and its start is on the Low of the April 08 2013 1W candle.
** Creating a 9 year Buy Zone **
The Top of the Channel is on the November 25 2013 peak of that Cycle. As you see, all the Cycles and price action that followed since then has seen the Zone within Fib 0.0 and Fib 0.236 as the ultimate Buy Zone being valid for 9 years running. In fact during the previous Bear Cycle (2018) the price dipped only marginally below the 0.236 Fib as its was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that provided the necessary Support and formed the bottom.
It was only during the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID global meltdown that the price pierced through but still rebounded just above the Fib 0.0 (bottom of the Fibonacci Channel Up) and the 1W candles closed only marginally below the 1W MA200. That was the case also with the Jan 12 2015 and August 24 2015 Lows, they broke but closed on or above the 1W MA200, showcasing why it is the ultimate buy spot within this 9 year Buy Zone.
Notice that, excluding the COVID crash of March 2020, the 0.236 Fib has made perfect hit and hold actions as Support 5 times since December 2018.
** The Zone of Frustration **
Since the January 03 2022 1W candle, Bitcoin has been trading (closing) entirely below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). I have labelled the periods of price action within the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 as the 'Zone of Frustration' where traders start to get confused at best or lose complete faith in the market. Right now it seems that we are approaching the end of this period. Notice how this is normally marked by a strong rejection on the 1W MA50 (March 28 2022 and July 30 2018 1W candles. In 2014, it was a near rejection on the November 10 2014 candle).
** The Rally Zone **
The 0.236 Fib is also key on another aspect of this Channel. In 4 times during these 9 years, it has marked all major rally phases. Basically it is at least the 0.236 - 0.618 Fib Zone that is dominating most parts of those rallies. Naturally that means that, if it holds, it can give a new rally in the coming months towards the 0.618 Fib.
** Conclusion **
This model shows that 1W candle closings above the 0.236 Fib of the Channel most likely indicate that this will be the new Support. Last week's bounce above it, adds more weight to this argument. Regardless of that, Bitcoin successfully entered this Buy Zone since 2013, so based on the above parameters, it is already a strong long-term buy with the only condition left to fulfil is hitting the 1W MA200.
Do you think this is bound to happen in the next few weeks? Are you waiting until then or do you consider the break into this 9 year zone as a good enough buy opportunity for you on the long-term? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN Comparing 2 year corrections. Conditions for a bottom.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has seemingly recovered from the correction of the first 2 weeks of May and is trading +20% higher from the May 12 Low. However the question remains, can this recovery be sustained or the bottom isn't yet in? A comparison with the corrections of 2020 and 2018 can help us draw meaningful conclusions.
Let's see the similarities and differences between the 2020 and 2018 corrections.
** 2020 vs 2018 **
Similarities: Both confirmed their recovery and started a new uptrend when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line form the last Top. That roughly matched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Differences: While the 1D RSI broke well below the 30.000 oversold level in both cases, in 2020 it achieved a price bottom for BTC, while in 2018, a price Lower Low was made for the bottom despite the fact that the RSI was rising.
That bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while in 2020 the price dropped considerably below the 1W MA200.
** Today **
The correction since late March resembles so far that of 2018 in terms of the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and in terms of the total drop percentage as so far it has completed a -47%, not far off the 2018 -52%. A -52% would be approximately around $23150, just over the 1W MA200, which in 2018 formed the bottom.
However it terms of RSI, it resembles more the 2020 correction, as the RSI is rising along with the price.
So where does this leave us in terms of speculation? The common parameter in those past corrections, is that the market confirmed a sustainable rise when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line, which is also roughly where the 1D MA50 was. Right now the 1D MA50 is at $38623 but dropping fast due to May's aggressive correction. Long-term traders and investors have much better chances buying once BTC breaks above this trend-line. Our thesis is that, we will most likely see sideways price action before the Lower Highs/ 1D MA50 break, meaning that we may see a 2 month consolidation. Can this be this Bear Cycle's Accumulation Phase?
Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bitcoin Technical AnalysisCandlesticks are the fastest way to show the state of the market in my opinion. Currently, the weekly candle is a bearish candle with antennae appearing, reflecting buying force appearing but selling force still prevails as shown in the body of a very long bearish candle, so the downtrend prevails. It is possible to end this week with a doji before a bearish or bullish candle appears to confirm whether the market continues to decline or rise.
Currently BTC price is at 29,000 below the 32,000 support price line. If BTCUSDT price fails to break above $32,000, the bear market continues and BTCUSDT continues towards $19,000.
Therefore, we need a financial plan to buy BTC at the best price and a suitable strategy to increase assets.
BITCOIN Closed 7 straight red weeks for the 1st time in history!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed this weekend its 7th straight red weekly (1W) candle, which is a feat seen for the first time in history. More specifically, the last time we had 6 straight losing weeks on Bitstamp was from August to September 2014:
** Healthy stock market needed **
Needless to say, this development is very negative for BTC, especially from a psychological standpoint as the market being full of weak hands and late buyers during corrections, it tends to be dominated by fear, uncertainty and doubt. That accelerates more selling until the market stabilizes and high capital investors (whales, big institutions etc), enter the market again methodically.
Much will of course depend on the outlook of the stock market. Once the correction that began at the start of this year ends and the disappointing macro-economic environment stabilizes, institutional investors can again enter the riskier crypto-market. Until then we can expect more of that volatility at best.
** First week below 31600 since Dec 2020 **
However there is a certain basis we can work on and a few patterns to relate to. First, last 1W candle wasn't just the 7th straight red but was also the first weekly closing below 31600 since the December 21 2020 1W candle, thus reaching levels of almost 1.5 year back. The 1W MA200 is now at 21960 and as I've mentioned in previous posts, it is the weekly Support of the typical Bear Cycle.
** The importance of the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA200**
Also last week's candle, left a big wick below as it rebounded strongly from roughly 25400. Such candles were last seen on November 29 2021 and May 17 2021. Both of those started a consolidation of at least 1 month. The difference was that the November one failed to break its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, thus kickstarting further decline, while the May one eventually broke above the 0.5 Fib, shifting the trend to bullish. The 0.5 Fib is currently a little over 35000. A weekly close above it, could be enough to restore the long-term bullish bias, even though technically there is still the massive Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider which rejected last time the uptrend (March 2022). A weekly closing below last week's low, should deliver the, much anticipated by the majority of market participants, capitulation blow on (and even slightly below) the 1W MA200, where Bear Cycles bottom out and typically consolidate for 4-6 months before initiating the new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think will be the case this time? Will the market deliver the 1W MA200 to us? Or if the 0.5 Fib breaks, a new Bull Phase will start regardless? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
P.S. The last time the 1W RSI has been that low was on the March 09 2020 1W candle, which was the bottom of the COVID crash.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSD Bitcoin : A weekly long-term analysis 2.5Bitcoin is pop culture.
It made a lot of people rich and a lot of people lost money.
Most people lost because of emotional trading.
Smart traders made it big.
If we look at Bitcoin from a rational technical and fundamental perspective this is what we come up with:
*Upside is still very relevant and could be much more significant than any probable downside.
*It must be traded with proper risk management and patience, while considering the worst case scenario.
Thank you so much for reading/watching!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hope my idea was helpful! If so, please like and follow, it would mean the world to me :D
I promise to respond to any and all comments/questions , so please don't hesitate to ask me anything.
Once again, thank you.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSD Local Short!!BTCUSD broke the key horizontal level
Which is now a resistance
After retesting the broken level at 33900.0
And I think that it will fall further down
Onto the target level below
Bitcoin Idea H1Here is my view for BTCUSD on H1. The price could go down, you can put a pending order on the Order block or find an entry on LTF within OB Zone. Trade Safe!
BITCOIN The MFI and 2W MA100 Golden Bottom IndicatorsMy latest Cycle analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again geared towards estimating the bottom of the current (smoothest of all time as I've called) Bear Cycle that we are in. This time I am shifting to the 2W time-frame as a unique indicator combo is displayed.
** The 2W MA50 and MA100 **
The red area indicates the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to when a 2W candle closes below the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time. As the chart shows, this has so far been fairly consistent throughout the Bear Cycles as in 2014 that lasted 378 days (27 2W candles), in 2018 it lasted 336 days (24 2W candles), while on the current Bear Cycle it took again 378 days (27 2w candles) as in 2014.
Then I measure the time it took from the 2W MA50 closing to the time the price hit the 2W MA100 (green trend-line). In 2014 that was 28 days (2 2W candles), while in 2018 it was 77 days (6 2W candles). That sums the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to the 2W MA100 touch at 406 days and 413 days respectively.
** The MFI indicator **
Perhaps the most important addition to the mix is the Money Flow Indicator (MFI), which gives a buy signal when it hits the 25.50 level. It has done so on the January 05 2015 and the January 21 2019 candles. Both of those hits, marked a Bear Cycle bottom as the price was at the same time on the 2W MA100. The June 18 2018 MFI 25.50 approach doesn't fall into that category as, not only the indicator wasn't on the 25.50 level but the price hasn't closed below the 2W MA50.
** Conclusion **
This simple analysis shows that the market bottoms when the 2W MFI hits the 25.50 level while the price trades on the 2W MA100. The MFI is currently around 33.40, while the 2W MA100 at 21825. Note that the only time Bitcoin closed below the 2W MA100 was in March 2020 during the COVID global crash and still that was just marginally. As far as timing is concerned, if the current Bear Cycle follows the pattern of 2014, then it should bottom by the May 23 2022 2W candle and if it follows the pattern of 2018 it should bottom by the June 20 2022 2W candle.
But what do you think? Do you estimate that a bottom is not far away and if so, will it be on the 2W MA100 or lower? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITCOIN Comparing Capitulation phases among Bear Cycles.As the current 1W candle on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rising, leaving a big wick below, prompting to capitulation events, it is a good idea to compare the current 2021/22 Bear Cycle to the past ones (2018 and 2014) in an attempt to determine how low the price can go and where a bottom may be formed.
** The importance of the 1W MA200 **
As seen on the charts on the left, every Bear Cycle hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as it formed its bottom. It is important to mention that it is the closing of the 1W candle that matters are in both cases, but more so during the 2014 Bear Cycle, the 1W candle broke below the 1W MA200 but managed to close back above it, leaving a big wick behind it, much like this week's candle. The 1W MA200 is currently at $21850 and rising rapidly with each week.
** The Accumulation phase Fibonacci extension bottom **
Both of the Cycles mentioned above, entered a 4 - 7 month sideways phase following the hit on the 1W MA200. This was in my estimate the Accumulation Phase that helped the market in transitioning from the Bear to the new Bull Cycle. Once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, Bitcoin confirmed the new Bull Cycle.
** The 1W MA50 **
Speaking of the 1W MA50, its role is also key throughout the Bear Cycles. As shown all all charts, when the Bear Cycle starts, the initial drop always makes a direct hit on the 1W MA50 and then the price rebounds for some months. The exception is of course the current Cycle which made a Higher High in November 2021 but still we have to consider this a technical anomaly and take April 2021 as the Cycle's Top. Remember that I always treated the current Bear Cycle as a special case, calling it the 'smoothest of all time'.
As the Bear Cycle progresses, the 1W MA50 turns into a Resistance for the latter part of the Cycle, in fact in 2018 and 2022 it provided strong rejections.
** The Fibonacci extension bottom **
Circling back to the initial drop to the 1W MA50, if we measure the Fibonacci extensions on the past Cycles from that point to the Top, we derive very useful conclusions. For the 2014 Bear Cycle, the Bottom was made on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (all 1W candles closed above it), even though as mentioned at the start of the analysis, the 1W candle made a capitulation candle with a wick that reached as low as the 1.786 Fib extension.
The 2018 Cycle made a Bottom on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If this is a progression, then each bottom is made one Fibonacci level before. This means that the current Cycle may bottom out on the 1.382 Fib ext, which being roughly at $21950, is around the current level of the 1W MA200. This not only matches perfectly the 1W MA200 criteria that we discussed before, but also is in line with the diminishing returns/ lower volatility theory which suggests that as massive adoption takes place and institutional capital is invested, each Bitcoin Cycle will be less volatile, offering diminishing returns, but at the same time not the brutal corrections of the past.
As you see the past two Cycles made a roughly -85% correction. If the current one bottoms on the 1.382 Fib, then it would be a -66% correction. Still big but considerably less than the Bear Cycles of 2018 and 2014.
Also notice how the current 1W candle almost reached the 1.236 Fibonacci, always a strong Support during asset corrections.
** The 1W RSI break signal of 30.000 **
Last but not least, keep an eye on the 1W RSI. The 2018 and 2014 Cycles, made a bottom when the 1W RSI broke below the 30.000 barrier, turning oversold. That took place exactly on the market bottom and then the Accumulation Channel started. Right now the 1W RSI is a little below 35.000. Even a flat multi-month consolidation can be enough to get it marginally below 30.000, not to mention another brutal 1W candle to the 1W MA200. In any case, even if the 1W MA200 doesn't get hit this time, keep an eye on the RSI 30.000 barrier as an additional market bottom indicator.
Also notice how the 1W RSI is descending in each Cycle, and even in the case of the current one (2021/22), it didn't make a Higher High despite the fact that the market did in November 2021. The Bear Cycle RSI pattern remained intact.
** Conclusion **
So what do we learn from the above? Well the current 1W candle may very well be a capitulation candle similar to that of November 19 2018, which pushed the price to the 1W MA200 three weeks later. A hit on the 1W MA200 (and candle close above) and the 1.382 Fib would be a strong indication of a market bottom but the 1W RSI breaking below 30.000, might be an even more powerful. In any case, as the current 1W candle almost hit the 1.236 Fib and the 1W MA200 is rising rapidly, the 24600 - 21850 is a massive candidate for the Bottom of this Bear Cycle. If the stock market stabilizes soon, we should start witnessing buying from long-term investors and institutions within a month's time.
But what do you think? Where do you expect this Cycle to make a bottom? Is the 1W MA200 a could projection or look more for the 1W RSI breaking 30.000? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
BONUS The sharp 2011 Cycle and how it corrected for reference reasons:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BTCUSD intraday trading & flying to the moon🚀 13 MAY 2022Bitcoin intraday trading alert
3 steps must fulfill before entry
1. 1st breakout done
2. Retracement done
3. 2nd breakout and see you in the sky🚀
Hope you like my Trading Alerts~
Cheers~
BTCUSD - drastic Hello Traders,
From the market of Bitcoin 200 billions wipe out. People loose big money.
Why this happening? The answer is very simple. They do not pay attention to technical analysis.
If you know them, then is very simple how you control your portfolio in crypto.
You have many tools that provide indication of price change direction. Closed you position and case closed. You can open again when price change directions without loosing so much money.
This what I am showing you in my analysis, future change direction, trend line (which are incredible tools), channels and many more.
As a traders our task is to get as much as possible profit and with small losses.
There are the new candlestick formations that showing support and resistance.
Candlestick formation are very powerful indicators, but they have be confirm by support/resistance (SR) - true SR.
There is very high probability to predict hight of swings (waves). Look on USD Index, this will gives you idea that is going on with cripto.
I hope you not one of the traders that lost crypto.
Cheers,
Jim
BITCOIN The Cycles Halving Model times the bottom this SeptemberThis analysis is an update to a model that I've been working on for years and as it shows great accuracy at timing tops and bottoms, I frequently update here on TradingView (something I started on reddit though). Last time I published an analysis on this model was almost 1 year ago (June 11 2021):
As you see, Cycle 3 (orange trend-line) did diverge again from Cycle 2 (green trend-line) and priced its top considerably lower, which is in line with the Theory of Diminishing returns. However an update had to be made on this in order to more accurately display and project the (future) tops. Notice that this is a Halving centered approach. Every Cycle is measured before and after its respective Halving. E.g. Cycle 1 (blue trend-line) starts from the start of the data set and ends on Halving 2, i.e. displaying the price action centered around Halving 1. for comparison purposes, I've centered all on Halving 3 (the most recent one). You can find a more detailed explanation on the methodology on the previous issue of this model (chart above).
** Projecting Cycle Tops and Bottoms **
As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fibonacci time extensions progressively starting from the January 2009 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext.
Similarly, on this update I have added bottom projections to the mix. They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of September 2022.
** Portraying the Bear Cycles and Rally Phases **
A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts.
On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around September 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history (as I've mentioned in numerous analyses already), it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle.
** Conclusion **
One thing is for sure with this model, that the current Cycle as it diverged a year ago from the previous one, it will converge again after the Bear phase ends. This will still be diminishing returns compared to the previous ones, but will translate to a new All Time High.
Do you agree with this model and the projections made? Do you have your own estimate for the Cycle bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
BONUS MATERIAL Two examples of previous applications of the Halving centered approach and the Convergence - Divergence modelling:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
