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BITCOIN entered the 1D oversold zone for the 3rd time in 1 year.Last time Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke the 30.000 oversold barrier on the 1D time-frame, was on January 21 2022 and May 19 2021. Practically today marked the third time in the last 12 months that this event took place. During both of those capitulation candle sequences, Bitcoin formed a Support and turned sideways for around 2-3 months. During this process, it hit certain trend-lines. First, it took 10 and 15 days respectively for those events to hit the basis (red trend-line) of the Bollinger Bands (green pattern) and from that point another 56 and 65 days respectively to hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Given the max scenario in each case, Bitcoin could reach the Basis line of BB by May 24 and then the 1D MA200 by July 28. In addition, we are just above the Support Zone formed of the May 19 2021 (30100) and June 22 2021 (28600) lows. There is also a Lower Lows trend-line involved with a max extension around 27000. Do those indicate a bottom? And if so, will Bitcoin enter a 2-3 month consolidation on its way to the 1D MA200 yet again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
47
BITCOIN and stocks during rate hikes. Is a bottom being formed?On this unique analysis, I am cross-examining the behavioral pattern of Bitcoin (BTCUSD / candles) as compared to the stock market (S&P500 / blue trend-line) during the last time that the Fed starting raising the interest rates (green trend-line). ** Late 2015 pattern. The start of the previous rate hike phase ** The pattern from this sample is quite clear. Last time the rate hike started (December 2015), the stock market was already on a strong correction that bottomed 1 month later. At the same time, Bitcoin was volatile but didn't correct that much and instead started a new Bull Cycle. Notice that the stock market peaked and started its correction 5-6 months before the first rate hike. Obviously the bearish news that dominated the market at the time was China's slowdown (August 2015) and before that a potential Grexit but keep in mind that a potential rate hike was already being discussed before implemented and the markets tend to price in the news long before the event takes place. ** 2022 pattern. The start of a new rate hike phase ** Similarly coming to today, this week's aggressive 0.50% rate hike, the strongest since 2000, catches the stock market already in an ongoing correction. Notice that as in 2015, the stock market peaked and started to fall 5-6 months before this week's aggressive hike. As in 2015, this could have very much been related to the stocks pricing the rate hike months ahead of the actual event. At the same time, Bitcoin has had a low point in January 2022 (and an even lower (bottom) in July 2021), being volatile these past 5 months but with the strong correction already behind it from November 2021 to January 2022. Can all these be a coincidence? Or do all three form again the same pattern as in late 2015/ early 2016? As we mentioned numerous times from our channel here, Bitcoin's price action since the April 2021 High can be seen as a new form of Bear Cycle, much like the one in 2014/15 that preceded the rate hike. The current volatile range (circle on the chart) looks a lot like the one in November 2015 - January 2016, which kick-started the parabolic rally of 2016/17. Does all this mean that the stock market is about to price a bottom on this 5 month correction and Bitcoin to start a new Bull Cycle as the Fed moves into aggressive rate hiking (as per their announced plan) in an attempt to win the battle against a raging inflation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BTCUSD Flash | What is happening?Price is currently sitting on both a bullish trendline and a strong demand zone that has held price "supported" since February 2022. Are we going to witness a breakdown or trend continuation in the next couple of days? What do you think? Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by darcsherry
BITCOIN Short-term analysis on the Falling WedgeBitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within Falling Wedge pattern on the short-term ever since April 11. The pattern is close to exhaustion point as the upper (Lower Highs) and lower (Lower Lows) trend-lines are getting too narrow. The direction to which the price breaks, should determine the trend of the next 2 weeks. The MA periods on the 4H time-frame play a critical part to this as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) rejected the price on April 21, while the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) has done so on Apr 26 and 28. Right now the price broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and is approaching the 4H MA100, which is the first Resistance and happens to be almost exactly on the Falling Wedge's Lower Highs (top) trend-line. A candle close above it, should be enough to extend the rise to the 4H MA200 even intra day but it is the potential break above the 4H MA200 that should really have our attention. In that case we may most likely see a strong rebound to the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which caused the rejection on March 28 and practically started this correction, that could happen converge on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that while the price action was on Lower Lows (of the Falling Wedge naturally), the 4H RSI has been rising on Higher Lows, posting therefore a Bullish Divergence. That gives more probabilities to a break-out to the upside. If the Wedge breaks to the downside though, the next level of Support to look for should be the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at around 34900. So what do you think? Do you expect the Falling Wedge to break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
37
BITCOIN This Falling Wedge decides the trend.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since the March 28 High, always within the wider outlook of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is right below as the long-term Support, and hasn't been that close since the COVID crash months. A similar Falling Wedge was formed when the price was bottoming on the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The OBV indicator between the two patterns are fairly similar. The Falling Wedge will most likely determine the trend of the next months, perhaps even for the rest of the year. A break upwards will most likely be a bullish signal for a price jump towards 55-60k similar to that of August 2021. On a different occasion, with break downwards, we need to wait for a weekly (1W) candle closing. Below the 1W MA100, opens the way for the low 30s even the higher 20s levels. Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will the Falling Wedge break upwards or downwards? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN accumulation to June, then rally. 5 year cheat-sheet.Today I am presenting to you a hidden phase cheat-sheet on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) that I've been working on this week. The time-frame is the 1W (weekly). As you see, since the 2017 rally, Bitcoin has gone through three Phases of Rally - Accumulation - Bear. The astonishing fact is that time-wise all have been symmetrical to each other: * The Bear Phase lasts 44 weeks (308 days) while the Accumulation Phase lasts 15 weeks (105 days). Every time the Accumulation ends, the Rally Phase starts. * Approximately, we can estimate the peaks of the Rallies and end of the Bear Phases using the Fibonacci Time Extensions. Starting measuring from the Peak of the first Rally (0.0 Fib) and the end of the first Bear (1.0 Fib), we can see on the 1.5 Fib extension, the Rally roughly peaked (was just 2 weeks after the extension). The end of the Bear Phase was +1.0 Fib after, i.e. the 2.5 Fib extension. The peak of the next Rally was roughly on the 3.25 Fib ext and +1.0 Fib after was the end of the third Bear Phase. Based on this model, we have been within the third Accumulation Phase since the February 21 1W candle. Assuming that symmetry continues to hold, this phase should last again 15 weeks, which times its end on the June 06 1W candle. Then the fourth Rally Phase should start and it would be a good idea to sell around the 5.0 Fibonacci Time Extension, even though the model's progression suggests it can go as long as the 5.25 extension. Note that the RSI indicator on the 2W time-frame (below the chart price action), can offer an additional estimate with regards to when to have a confirmed buy. That will be when the RSI breaks above the MA line (yellow) again (for the 2nd time in the Cycle). Keep in mind that in Phase 2 that took place while the price was still within the Bear Phase, as the March 2020 COVID sell-off distorted the data short-term. That was a Black Swan event that is very unlikely to take place again at least that soon. Still, it gave a very accurate buy signal. So what do you think about this 5 year old model? Does it offer enough evidence to you that the market is accumulating, and is on the best buy levels before an upcoming Rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
63
BITCOIN correlation with stock market volatility and Halvings.As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) adoption goes on and more institutional investors enter the market, the correlation of BTC and stocks becomes more and more tight. That is a paradigm that the cryptoworld struggled to come to terms with in the past but is now more real than ever. A healthy stock market is good for Bitcoin. The current analysis depicts exactly that notion in terms of Growth and Volatility while incorporating a key parameter of BTC, the Halvings. ** What is a Halving? ** First of all, in case you are a newcomer in the cryptospace, what is a Halving? It is the most pivotal events on Bitcoin's blockchain and is when the payout for mining a new block is halved. This induces inflation in the price, reducing the number of BTC in circulation, thus increasing demand. It happens after every 210,000 blocks (approximately four years). Because of increased demand, Halvings historically tend to create aggressive price rallies after the event. ** Stock market Growth and Volatility phases ** This chart is on the 1W time-frame and as mentioned displays Bitcoin (orange trend-line) against the stock market in the form of the S&P500 index (blue trend-line). The stock market since 2011 has gone through clear phases of Growth (green zone) and Volatility (blue zone). Out of the past three Bitcoin Cycles, two of them make almost exact matches: BTC's Bear Cycles with Stocks' Volatility Phases and BTC Bull Cycles/ Rally Phases with Stocks' Growth Phases. Slight exception was 2013/14, where BTC peaked in November 2013 but the stock market Growth Phase continued for another year. By the time the stock market volatility started, BTC had already made the bottom of its Bear Cycle. We may have a similar situation with the current BTC Cycle as well. Assuming that BTC's peak was in April 2021 and not November 2021 (slightly higher high), then as in 2013/14, the stock market Growth extended almost 1 year after BTC's peak. If that's the case and the correlation continues to hold, then BTC's bottom was priced early this year as the stock market volatility has started since the start of 2022. Another interesting element is that the middle of the Stock market volatility phase has always been very close to BTC's Bear Cycle bottom level. Technically, that appears the most optimal level overall historically to buy with confidence for the long-term. If the current Stock volatility phase lasts 84 weeks as in 2015, then its middle should be around October 2022. If however the volatility phase lasts as long as 2018/2019 (107 weeks), then its middle should be around January 2023. Note that a Volatility phase that long would match almost perfectly with the next Halving of March 2024, which as mentioned at the start of the analysis, kick-starts BTC's Parabolic Rally. Do you think this is a good correlation to time a solid buy entry on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN A correlation with US10Y and EURUSD hints to a rallyThis is a simple yet very insightful correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD orange trend-line) with the US10Y (blue trend-line) and the EURUSD (green trend-line) pair. The analysis compares the 2014 - 2018 era with 2018 - 2022. As you see, when the EURUSD pair peaks, BTC tends to form (or be close to form) a top on its Bull Cycle, hence starting its Bear Cycle. Similarly, when the EURUSD pair bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive rally of its Bull Cycle (note that normally it is well past its bottom formation). At the same time, when the US10Y peaks, BTC makes (or is around) the bottom of its Bear Cycle and starts its Bull Cycle. Similarly, when the US10Y bottoms and starts rallying, BTC tends to start the aggressive part of its Bull Cycle (as in the case of the EURUSD). Currently, on this 1W chart, the US10Y is on a small pull-back. Based on the above, if this pull-back is sustained, we may see Bitcoin form the bottom of the Bear Cycle of the past 12 months and gradually start rising again. The final confirmation of an upcoming parabolic rally can be when the EURUSD bottoms out, but as mentioned EURUSD bottoms a bit later than BTC. How accurate do you think those correlations are? Do you also agree that if the US10Y reverses, BTC will start a new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BTCUSD | New perspective | Follow-up detailsIn this video, I have explained why I still hold the opinion that bullish momentum is evolving for Bitcoin... With a demand zone coupled with a key level identified at 39,500/40,000 area; I am looking to buy the Bitcoin above this zone in the coming week. Let's see how the price reacts in the coming week and I shall keep you updated in the comment section on my tradingview account Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
BITCOIN A medium-term update on the Channel Up.This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) update on my April 06 analysis on the Channel Up structure: With the price getting rejected last Thursday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but holding and closing all 1D candles above the First Support of Higher Lows (green trend-line), Bitcoin has entered a strong consolidation phase on the short-term. The longer it goes, the more that looks as a bottom formation, even though the hard Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up is a bit lower. As the 1D RSI has formed Higher Lows, a 1D candle close above the 1D MA50 would translate into an immediate rise towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) where the price got rejected on the last Channel Higher High on March 28. A closing above that level further opens the way for a technical new Higher High formation, which has an upside limit on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, currently around 50650. This price action should continue to trade the Channel Up pattern until either the 52150 Resistance (December 27 High) or the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) break (long-term bullish and bearish break-out respectively). Which break-out do you think will come first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN The USD is approaching a level of historic BTC rallies!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned again lower on the short-term following yesterday's pull-back on the stock markets due to Powell's remarks on a May 50 basis points hike. The long-term outlook however remains intact and is further enhanced by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is approaching a critical Resistance trend-line. As this 1W chart shows, every time the DXY (bottom chart) hits its 5 year Lower Highs trend-line, it gets rejected towards the 90.000 level or lower. At the same time, as the USD is devalued against major currencies, Bitcoin starts an aggressive (parabolic) rally. The last two times it was the 2017 rally and the post COVID crash 2020 rally. As you see, I've drawn BTC's own Higher Lows Zone that acts as a Support since 2017. In fact if we ignore the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID crash, we see that the Diverging Higher Lows trend-line offers an absolute Support since 2017 with multiple contact points that sustained the long-term logarithmic uptrend, and is now very close to the current price action. So what's your opinion about this potential rejection of DXY? Will it be enough to start a new parabolic rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
50
BTCUSD | New perspective | Follow-up detailsAs speculated in my previous speculation on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), in the last 24 hours, price action has began to express bullish opportunity as we witness a a quick rejection of the bullish trendline identified on the daily timeframe. For those who missed the buy opportunity that happened yesterday, It is pertinent that we take a pill of patience at this juncture in the market and wait for a possible retracement into a significant demand level for another wave if it finally happens. I shall definitely keep you updated on my tradingview account as price action is been monitored, Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
BITCOIN Can it rise that fast that quickly?As Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Resistance, following a Higher Low two days ago on the 2022 Channel Up, it is time to look into the bigger picture again and see where we are at on the long-term Channel Up that started after the April 14 2021 High, which is a pattern that I first introduced on this channel on January 25 2022: ** Is this a near perfect symmetry ** First of all let's start by pointing out that so far, the time period between the Channel's two Higher Highs and two Higher Lows has been almost the same (210 days against 216 respectively). Assuming the next Higher High has the same distance from the previous, that times it on June 08 2022. Even if we use the distance from the Higher Low to Higher High measurement (which however so far gives only one event), which is 140 days, that places the next Higher High on June 13. Can Bitcoin rise that high that quickly? ** Where are we in relation to the last bottom? Ichimoku, RSI and MACD approaches ** One way to answer this is to determine where we are based on the last bottom/ Higher Low of the Channel Up. The March 28 High got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A similar but only near rejection was made on June 15 2021, so that is too soon on the previous fractal. On the other hand, the fact that since April 11, the price entered and stayed within the green Ichimoku Cloud, brings us to the similar September 20 - October 01 2021 stage. That is matched fairly well by the RSI of the two periods. Perhaps the most important is the MACD indicator, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame, in order to put emphasis on the Bullish Cross. That happened on March 30 2022 and August 19 2021, roughly when the Ichimoku Cloud turned green. That was just before the March 28 2022 High (1D MA200 rejection) and the September 06 2021 High. Now the MACD is about to cross again into a Bearish Cross, which needs to be avoid in order to keep the fractal intact. Same as it was avoided on September 26 2021, while the price was trading inside the green Ichimoku Cloud. ** What if we are still forming the bottom? ** If the above indicators are the case, then this suggests that this time the uptrend to a Higher High is much less aggressive than in 2021. That is to a big extend justified by the fact that the Ukraine - Russia war kept BTC and the whole market low in February - March, as the (highly correlated) stock market had a strong correction. As a result BTC may not be at its full potential right now and fairly underpriced in relation to the 2021 leg. However, since the 1D MA200 hasn't been broken (yet), we may assume that it is possible to still be forming the bottom and the recent pull-back be similar to that of August 01 - 05 2021, which was half-way through the first phase of the rally that got Bitcoin out of the bottom's consolidation. In that case, there is still enough potential to make a new Higher High (and All Time High as a matter of fact) but could take longer, roughly end of July. Bonus fact: See how important the Fibonacci retracement levels of the Channel Up are. The recent 1D MA200 rejection took place on the 0.382 Fib, the Sept 21 2021 low stopped on the 0.236 Fib, the Sept 06 2021 High on the 0.618 Fib and many other examples. Based on the above facts, do you think it is realistic to expect Bitcoin to rise this fast that quickly? Or are we just getting out of the new bottom formation of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BTCUSD | New perspectiveSince my last publication on this pair, we witnessed over 7,000pips move (see link below for reference purposes) and the price is right back at where we were a couple of months ago. With a significant bullish trendline identified on the daily timeframe; we might want to be looking at a bullish expectation in the next couple of days as long the price does not break below this line. In this video, I explained why I think we should be anticipating a bullish momentum. I shall bring up updates as price action is been monitored in the next couple of days... Stay tuned in! Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by darcsherry
1