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Btcusdsignals

BITCOIN spot market bottoms and reversals using DOW's Stoch RSII've made countless analyses in the past pointing out the high correlation between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the stock markets. In that context, I was running a few regressions of BTC against Dow Jones (DJI) in particular and found an indicator that has spotted all of Bitcoin's historic market bottoms with 100% accuracy. That is the rather undervalued Stochastic RSI. As this chart on the 1W time-frame shows, the 1W Stoch RSI of Dow Jones is currently on a slight pull-back having made an absolute bottom on the 0.00 reading in late February. Notice how all Stoch RSI swings at or near 0.00 have been market bottoms for Bitcoin: September 11, August 2015, January 2016, December 2018 and March 2020. When the RSI broke above the 20.00 level again it started a consolidation phase, which never looked back and eventually led to a parabolic rally. As you may see, all initial breaks above the 20.00 Stoch RSI level, posted a pull-back soon after (red and green arrows). Once the pull-back was completed on the green arrow, the Parabolic Rally on Bitcoin started. This is strong evidence that the market has made its bottom on the current Cycle. What we need to pay attention to now is when Dow's Stoch RSI will reverse again. That will be the time that Bitcoin breaks upwards and won't look back. From a long-term investors perspective, Bitcoin's current price level is a good of a buy as it can get. Wouldn't you agree based on this correlation? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! * NOTE: I don't know why Dow's price chart also shows up. Drag the Stoch RSI pane in order to maximize it over Dow's price and better see the correlation with Bitcoin. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
31
BITCOIN A short-term set-upThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 4H time-frame. A good short-term set-up is emerging as both the candle action and the 4H RSI are forming a sequence similar to the March 07 - March 12 pattern, which was a Higher Low on the 'First Support Higher Lows trend-line' that I introduced last Tuesday. As you see, the price is at the stage where it is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Red Ichimoku and is about to come outside of the consolidation pattern. When that happened in March, it took the price around 9 days to break above the previous Resistance, which on the current fractal is at 41590. When that broke, Bitcoin rallied and made a top on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (roughly above 48000), which was the March 28 Higher High of the 1D Channel Up. The 2.0 Fib extension on the current pattern is at 43960. A break below the Support of 39200 could be enough to invalidate this trading set-up. Do you think it will play out or get invalidated? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
18
BITCOIN is just getting out of this Cycle's bottom. Huge upside!In late February I posted the following analysis regarding Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) clear Bottom patterns on every Cycle, making valid arguments why January - February was a cyclical bottom formation for Bitcoin: The price has posted a new bullish leg since then, and it appears that we are on the right track to start a steady but strong rise again long-term. Notice how the price remains within the long-term Buy Zone, thus staying (in cyclical terms) still a solid long-term buy. On the current analysis, I am extending this chart a bit by adding a very interesting feature on a Cycle's horizon: The measurement from one bottom pattern to the next. As you see, on this 1W time-frame, the distance of the lowest level of the 1st Bottom pattern to the lowest level of the 2nd Bottom pattern was 183 weeks (1281 days). Similarly the measurement from the lowest level of the 2nd Bottom pattern to the the lowest level of the 3rd Bottom pattern was 171 weeks (1197 days). Finally (assuming January 2022 is indeed a bottom pattern), the distance from the lowest level of the 3rd Bottom pattern to the the lowest level of the 4th (current) Bottom pattern has been 165 weeks (1155 days). It is obvious that each sequence gets shorter in time by a factor of roughly 80 - 50 days. As a result in arithmetic progression terms we can claim that +/- some days, Bitcoin is coming out of this Cycle's bottom. The previous analysis of November shows that the price never hits the peak of the previous Cycle, so naturally 20k is out of the question. The big question is will it trend more or less aggressively this time? As mentioned above, as long as the price remains within the green zone, it remains a long-term buy. It is when it breaks above (usually on news/ strong fundamentals of adoption etc) that the real Parabolic Rally begins. I assume noone wants to be left behind. So what do you think about this Bottom fractal chart? Is BTC a good enough buy for you as it is on the current levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
106
BITCOIN Is the correction over?This is an update to last week's medium-term analysis that was centered around Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Channel Up and the bearish - bullish break-out levels: ** Bearish break-out on clear levels ** As you see, the Flag pattern, that started after the price made a new Higher High at the top of the Channel Up, failed to break above the (bullish) invalidation level (48,300) and instead broke below the Flag's bottom (Lower Lows). After a short consolidation around the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), it also broke below the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. All levels were clearly mentioned on that idea last week. ** The 1st Higher Lows trend-line ** Now on today's analysis, I will make one small but can turn out to be critical addition to the technical mix. That is the First Higher Lows trend-line (green line) which is parallel to those (Higher Lows) of the bottom of the Channel Up. As the chart shows, this has offered a support and bounce point to Bitcoin six times since January 27. The price came yesterday just a fraction before hitting it and we already see a minor rebound reaction. ** The MACD and Death Cross ** On top of all these, the 4H MACD indicator is about to make a Bullish Cross, and is in a similar position as it was on the February 24 bottom. Interestingly enough, that previous (Feb 24) bottom that made a new Higher Low on the Channel Up, took place exactly when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 and formed the well-known Death Cross pattern. Technically, we are just one day before those two trend-lines form a new Death Cross. Will those be enough to form a bottom now and extend today's small bounce into a larger medium-term rebound within the Channel Up, or the price will make one last pull-back for a 'clean' Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
23
BTCUSD don't BUY yet!Hi fellow traders, I've been posting many charts on BTCUSD lately because we are getting closer and closer to the point where we will see Bitcoin rise once again. It is important to look at the bigger picture now on the weekly. I believe this is a large corrective structure in the shape of an expanding flat pattern. Thus we will break de previous bottom at 28k and we should see a sharp rise from anywhere within the blue box. I will keep updating the BTCUSD chart on smaller TF's. For now, stay patient guys. Goodluck!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by OGwavetrader
2
BITCOIN Cycle's Fib Supports intact with the 1D MA50 supporting.I have made numerous analysis on multiple time-frames comparing the April 2021 - April 2022 Cycle to that of July 2019 - September 2020. This time I am adding one more element on the 1W time-frame: The Fibonacci retracement levels. As you see, Bitcoin (BTCUSD ) is currently trading within the 0.382 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The 1W RSI has broken above its MA since the March 14 1W candle, which signaled the bullish break-out above the 1D MA50 and the end of the 3 month consolidation phase at the bottom of the correction since the November 2021 High. That is a very similar position Bitcoin had in early May 2020 i.e. trading within 0.382 - 0.618 Fib with the 1D in support and the 1W RSI above its MA. What followed was roughly a 4 month slow rise of Higher Highs and Higher Lows first within Fib 0.382 - 0.618 and then 0.618 - 0.786. What does this mean for us now? This suggests that if Bitcoin manages to hold the 0.382 Fib as Support and consolidate, it is more likely to see a Higher High to 55k (0.785 Fib roughly) and then by the end of Q3 a test of the All Time High. Do you expect it to hold? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
41
BITCOIN Is this a Bull Flag or the start of a down-trend?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been pulling back since its March 28 Top. That top was a Higher High in the wider pattern of the Channel Up, which Bitcoin has been trading in since the January 24 bottom. ** The Bull Flag ** The pull-back is so far a Bull Flag, which essentially is a Channel Down when an asset is on an uptrend that hasn't broken below its previous Higher Low of the main trend. Those Higher Lows are what I marked as 'Internal Higher Lows trend-line'. ** The 4H MA200 and the downtrend ** The previous Bull Flag that marked the last Higher High of the Channel Up (February 10), was false and eventually failed, i.e. the price broke below its bottom (Lower Lows). After a short consolidation around the 4H MA200, the downtrend eventually made a Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up. As a result we should keep an eye on the current Bull Flag's bottom. A break should lead to the 4H MA200 (it's not that far off after-all) and a break below the Internal Higher Lows, will open the way for the new Higher Low. The 4H MACD so far shows that we are in a similar pattern to February. ** Invalidation ** However, a break above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) or better yet, the 48,150 High, is the invalidation level of the Channel Up, and most likely will lead to a quick test of the 52150 December 27 High. Which scenario do you think is more likely to take place? Pull-back towards the Channel Down's bottom (roughly 38000 level) or invalidation towards 52150? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
37
BITCOIN Formed the 1W LMACD Bullish Cross! Historic rally ahead!Two weeks ago I mentioned that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was trading 'perhaps the most critical week' of recent times, mainly due to the fact that the price was testing the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the Resistance for 12 weeks straight, as every week closed below it: Well not only did the price close a 1W candle above the 1W MA50, but at the same time, the 1W LMACD made a Bullish Cross! That is the focal point of today's study as all previous LMACD Bullish Crosses on the 1W time-frame have delivered major rallies in recent years. The last 1W LMACD Bullish Cross for reference was on the August 09 2021 1W candle. Another element I want to add, is the similarities of the rather neutral price action in 2021 - date with the phase of 2019 - early 2020. First, in terms on LMACD, there are clear legs that draw a similar pattern. A key characteristic is that the Support then was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) while now is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). This could mean that this time the rally may be more aggressive. A rather radical illustration can be made on the Fibonacci Channel scale using the extensions. Can it go as high as the 300k - 350k USD in such short period of time? That's has a big question-mark besides it and it would require massive bullish fundamentals, but they could be just around the corner. What we should keep from the current study is that the break above the 1W MA50 and the 1W LMACD Bullish Cross, can be enough to take Bitcoin past its previous All Time Highs. Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
60
BITCOIN ahead of important long-term bullish break-outsAs I've mentioned a few weeks back, Bitcoin is running on very critical long-term levels. Basically this idea is a combination of two previous analyses: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed the 2nd straight green monthly candle, first time since August 2021 to do so while at the same time closed above the 1W MA50 for the first time in 13 weeks. This time I am looking at the 2W time-frame, in order to highlight the similarities in the RSI (mostly) structure of 2019/20 and 2021/22. The price action is also fairly similar if we exclude of course the Black Swan event of the COVID sell-off in March 2020. I've highlighted the RSI phases between the two periods. Right now it appears that we are past the price bottom (leg 4) and with the RSI attempting to make the bullish break-out above its MA (black trend-line) which in April 2020 led to a test of the leg (3) High. What's unique in the current situation is that the price is at its closest to the upper Bollinger Band since early November 2021. A break above it, was what initiated the Parabolic Rallies of early 2019 and late 2020. What do you think will happen this time? Will a break above the upper BB kick start a new rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
22
BITCOIN just broke below its Bull Flag! How low can it go?Bitcoin's impressive rally since March 14 has seen for the first time break below a Bull Flag pattern and not above it. Is this alarming and if so how low can the price go? ** The 1H MA200 and Higher Lows trend-line as Support ** Well at first, it doesn't seem alarming, at least not as long as the Zone consisting of the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 2-week Higher Lows trend-line (started since the March 14 low) are holding. Those form the first Support Band on the short-term. If this breaks however, the price could seek the lower Fibonacci extensions (-1.0, -1.5 and -2.0) towards the next Support trend-line of the 1D MA50 (yellow line). ** The 1D MA200 as Resistance ** On the other hand, there is a clear Resistance, in the form of the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), that has already had a rejection on the price three days ago. A candle closing above this, would most likely sustain this 2 week rally as the price seeks the next unfilled Fibonacci extension level, which is the Fib 2.0. Until this Resistance and the Support Zone mentioned above break, a scalping opportunity is presented in the form of a Triangle. ** The 2 week RSI Buy Zone ** Don't ignore the 1H RSI, which just entered the 2 week Buy Zone (green zone) that started exactly when this rally took off on the Higher Lows trend-line. As for where Bitcoin (BTCUSD) stands on the longer-term, take a look at the 1D time-frame below. The current Bull Flag, could be similar to that of mid August 2021, which was formed half-way to a 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. Right now the new 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross is emerging. This can be enough to sustain one last 2 week rally before a stronger correction: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN broke its 3 month consolidation! What's next?Bitcoin finally broke above the 3 month consolidation that started after January 05, which was in the form of an Ascending Triangle pattern. Yesterday, the price broke above the Triangle's Resistance and at the same time the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and is about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 02. As mentioned on my most recent analysis two days ago, the 1D MA200 was BTC's first target in the event of a Triangle break-out: Now let's look at the dynamics more closely and see how the price action over the past 12 month period can set parameters for this rally. First, the long-term Channel Up that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading in since the April 14 2021 High (All Time High at the time), is not a new concept. It is an idea that I first introduced on the 1W time-frame, back on January 25: ** The Channel Up, the 1D MA200 as a pivot and the 4H MA200 as a Support ** So, based on the last rally that started after the previous Higher Low (bottom) on the Channel Up, if the price breaks the 1D MA200, it could continue as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (55300) at least, before considering a pull-back. If it gets rejected though on the 1D MA200 and fails to close a 1D candle above it, BTC could seek the 4H MA200 (green dotted line) as a Support before it resumes the uptrend. That trend-line (4H MA200) is critical to the current break-out, as in the July - September 2021 rally, it maintained the bullish momentum and when it broke (after the price marginally broke above the 0.618 Fibonacci), the pull-back of Bullish Phase 1 came. As a result, if the current rally breaks above the 1D MA200, look for the first signs of a pull-back when the 4H MA200 breaks. ** The 1W RSI peak ** A similar benchmark that may indicate the peak of Bullish Phase 1 of this new rally to a Higher High, is the RSI on the 1W time-frame. It seems that the current leg is fairly symmetrical to the July - August one, so if the 1W RSI hits the 62.10 Resistance and fails, look for a price pull-back. This pull-back shouldn't be much lower than the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (46800). If we see buy accumulation there, then the Bullish Phase 2 could start and complete this rally near the Higher Highs trend-line of the April 2021 Channel Up. Do you agree with this road map to a new All Time High? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25