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BITCOIN Consistent to previous Cycles. The ultimate comparisonThis is a complete mapping of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first) all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The current Bear Phase is the longest in history, as so far it is 4 weeks longer (time-frame is on the 1W) than Cycle 4. ** Halvings ** It is well known that the Halvings are the catalysts in each Cycle that start its most aggressive part, the Parabolic Rally. The next one is projected for March 2024. This could mean that we may have almost 2 years of limited action and volatility (in Bitcoin terms) until the real rally begins. Of course this doesn't mean that the All Time High won't break until then, most likely it will and most likely a strong mini-rally may follow after its bottom is achieved. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. Right now it is converging to Cycle 4 and if it is modelled after Cycle 3, the price will most likely turn sideways for the next two months in an attempt to converge and make contact with Cycle 4. This delay is because, as I've first mentioned in the crypto space, the current Bear Market is the 'smoothest' in history. In conclusion, Bitcoin tends to follow the steps of the previous Cycles. A bottom here is very likely, as is a smooth sideways transition to September and Q3. Depending on the global macro-economic conditions in the markets, we should re-evaluate at the time, as a favorable environment may give a rally similar to February - June 2019, while a negative environment (depression) may break the model downwards. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might bottom and trend in the future? Is Cycle 3 the greatest fit for the current one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
58
BITCOIN The Resistance that every Cycle broke to start the rallyFollowing the 'back to basics' analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the reminder that the Parabolic Growth Channel is still dictating its long-term cyclical trend, I thought it would be useful to extend it a bit with new parameters. ** The Parabolic Rally and Bear Cycle Resistance elements ** As you see, I've incorporated new measurements on Each Cycle, namely the Parabolic Rally (green) measuring the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle and the Bear Cycle Resistance (red), which is the Lower Highs trend-line that keeps all price action (practically the whole Bear Cycle) below it until it breaks and the Bull phase starts. ** Angles' symmetry ** What those factors show is that each move holds a certain symmetry. Every Parabolic Rally has so far been roughly on a 60° angle (or at least this is on my chart adjustments, if yours are different it will change but again the angle will change proportionally on all trend-lines). Similarly, the Bear Cycle Resistance has been approximately on a 25° angle. We can see that this analogy held perfectly for the previous Parabolic Rally (October 2020 - April 2021) therefore enabling us to assume that the pattern could continue for the Bear Cycle Resistance. I have applied that Resistance and this gives us a slight idea of when to take a confirmed Buy position once it breaks after the bottom is priced and the trend starts moving upwards again. As you see, the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level from Cycle Top to previous Cycle Bottom, has always been a good estimation as to where the new Cycle may price its Low and right now we are trading exactly around it. ** Cycles comparison ** Also, for better illustration purposes and a cleaner comparison, I've put all prior Bear Cycles (including the current one) on top of each other, drawing the same Bear Cycle Resistance. You can see with this analogy just how proportionate each phase is and how close the bottom might be. So do you find this approach useful? Based on that are you willing to buy now or after the Resistance breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
BITCOIN On Max Fear territory. Time to buy?This feels like a 'back to basics' chart for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as I'm displaying the classic Parabolic Growth Channel but given the amount of negativity in the market, it might be the perfect time to look back into it. First we all know that the 1W MA200 broke last week and the ultimate MA that supports the Parabola is the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is now around 16650. This analysis is on the 1M time-frame though with the 1M MA50 being displayed as the blue trend-line. ** The Parabolic Channel ** As far as the Parabolic Channel is concerned, we can see that since last week the price entered its Growth Zone. That is the territory within the bottom and the dotted line that acted as a Resistance during the Accumulation Phases of 2012, mid 2015 - 2016 and early 2019. As you see on the chart when a monthly (1M) candle enters this Zone, the action has always been a Buy historically. ** The LMACD and RSI ** Perhaps the most interesting aspect on the monthly chart is the LMACD that is about to touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle it has been trading in since the beginning. That is the Triangle that I've coined years ago as the pattern leading to Diminishing Returns and lower volatility. On this month it appears that the LMACD has entered into its 2-month Max Fear territory, which is always before it reverses. Also the 1M RSI indicator just hit the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since the start. Both previous Lower Lows have coincided with BTC's Cycle Bottoms. To conclude this, the current monthly candle (June) looks like the capitulation candles of January 2015 and November 2018 that shaped the bottoms of the previous two Bear Cycles. Whether there is some more room left to drop to the 1W MA300 or the June 2019 High (to make contact with the bottom of the Parabolic Channel), by all historic indicators this looks like a favorable Risk/ Reward level to buy for long-term investors. But what do you think? Do you treat this Max Fear time in the market as a Buy opportunity? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN Ultimate Buy Signal just flashed on 2WAs analyzed on our previous post, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is the line that formed the bottom during the March 2020 COVID flash crash as well as August 2015. This time the strongest Buy Signal flashes one time-frame higher, where on the 2W chart the RSI reached the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since it first started trading. This trend-line formed the bottoms on all three previous BTC Cycles. A confirmed buy would be when the RSI breaks above its MA (yellow line), which just so happens to match the 1D MA100 (blue trend-line) break-outs on prior Cycles. That is the earliest buy signal the market gives before it starts a rally and the new Bull Cycle. Also watch that the price is approaching the 1.75 Fibonacci extension from the High of the first BTC Cycle (June 2011). While the 2nd Cycle marginally broke below the 1.25 Fib extension before making its Bottom, the 3rd Cycle didn't hit its +0.25 ext i.e. 1.5 Fib. This is consistent with the Theory of lower volatility over time during each Epoch as the price stability is achieved through maturity and higher adoption. Is this signal enough to make you buy on the current levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BITCOIN Getting closer to the 1W MA300. Short-term perspective.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a historic first in Cyclical terms as it broke yesterday the Top of the previous Cycle (Dec 2017). It did so within a Channel Down pattern on the short-term 4H time-frame. So what's next for the immediate price action? Well as long as the Channel Down is intact, BTC should trade lower within it. As I mentioned on my previous analysis, the level to look for once the 1W MA200 broke was the 1W MA300 (red trend-line on the current analysis). If broken, we can technically experience another massive sell-off to the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 12250. There are however high chances, at least from a 4H perspective, that the Channel breaks upwards as there is a bullish divergence on the RSI being on Higher Lows as opposed to the candle action being on Lower Lows. Technically, if the price closes above the Channel Down, we can expect a quick test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken, then in turn a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, which at the moment is just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension that happens to be on the last 4H Resistance (28300) before the June 12 sell-off started. Again we have to state that this is a short-term technical outlook on the price action. Right now there are fundamentals on the bigger time-frames that tend to overshadow short-term patterns. Attention and careful risk management is needed. What do you think BTC will do next? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN The Ultimate Support Band. 1W MA300 coming into play?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. As I've mentioned numerous times, that has been the trend-line that marked the bottoms on both previous BTC Bear Cycles (all candles closed above). On this analysis, I am extending my previous publications on this Support by adding a variety of elements: 1) The 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that got hit, supported the price and initiated the rally on the March 2020 COVID crash. 2) The Mayer MA , which fits perfectly on this Support Zone charting I want to make clear with the MA200 and MA300. 3) Mapping of all previous Cycles 4) The Halvings ** The 1W MA300 ** First, it is critical to acknowledge where the 1W MA300 is. On this INDEX BTC chart, it sits around 16590. That is way below the Top of the previous Bear Cycle (19800), which if broken it will be the first time in history. If the current 1W candle closes considerably below the 1W MA200, a trader should acknowledge that as a possibility. Notice however that this is the top of the Mayer MA Support Band (green zone), which was last hit on the August 17 2015 candle. ** The Halvings can time the Bottoms ** The good news come when we incorporate the Halvings on the chart. As you see, the previous Bear Cycle bottoms have been 882 and 791 days after the previous Halving for the December 2018 and the January 2015 bottoms respectively. Or alternatively 518 and 539 days before the next Halving. Right now that creates a potential Bottom Phase within the July 04 and October 03 2022 1W candles. ** The 1W MA50/MA100 Cross ** On top of that, there is a pattern that when formed, it basically confirms that the Cycle's Bottom has been priced. That is the 1W MA50/MA100 Cross (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line)). I've analyzed that before but it fits very well on the current idea. If the MA50 and MA100 don't diverge from their current course, the Cross is projected to take place within the Bottom Phase as illustrated by the Halvings. ** Cycle mapping ** Even though the current Cycle has been an odd one, especially when thinking about its top, which not only it didn't make a blow-off top above the upper Mayer MA Zone (red zone) but also made a slightly higher top in November, it hasn't diverged much from the previous ones. As you see if we divide the Bear Cycles into phases, they all tend to follow the same pattern: a) Blue Triangle = Blow-off phase but with price still supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). b) Green Rectangle = Price consolidating, below the 1W MA50 but supported by the 1W MA100. c) Orange Channel Down = Final sell-off/ price collapsing below the 1W MA100 but finds support and contained above the 1W MA200. We are currently on Phase C. Whether or not BTC hits the 1W MA300 now or in a later stage of the new Bull Cycle, as it did on both previous Cycles (see red circles), that remains to be seen. Until then, what's your view on this complete Cycle mapping? Do you agree that we are in Phase C and if so, do you expect the 1W MA200 to support and close this week above it or make a sharp fall to the 1W MA200 if it fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
70
BITCOIN The MACD showing its a scalper's paradiseA lot of talk is being made lately on whether or not Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a bottom. Until the market shows a clear sign for that, the MACD indicator on the 4H time-frame is flashing a very reliable scalping signal. As you see, every time since late February that the 4H MACD hit or marginally went below the distant Support Zone and made a Bullish Cross, BTC turned sideways into consolidation within the 4H Bollinger Bands. So what the market is telling traders is that until BTC bottoms, good scalping opportunities exist on the short-term for those who can apply sensible risk management. Take advantage of this MACD signal. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN hit the lowest 1W RSI ever! All eyes on the 1W closing!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) finally hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which as I outlined on numerous analyses previously, has been the Support and bottom formation on every Bear Cycle, hence the ultimate buy level. What's also very interesting this week though, is that the 1W RSI hit the 27.40 mark, which is the lowest ever recorded level! On the bright side, the 1W LMACD continues to form a sequence that is similar to all past Bear Cycle bottom formations. What we should be focusing now is how the current 1W (weekly) candle will close. As you see, all prior 1W MA200 tests that broke below (even marginally), they managed to recover within the same 1W candle and close the week back on the MA200. Even the March 09 2020 (COVID crash) candle that extended 1600 USD (from $5500 to $3900) below the 1W MA200, managed to close the week on it. The next few days are crucial, as the Bitcoin market is naturally affected by the disappointing performance on the stock markets that are even calling for a recession, especially if the Fed raises the interest rate more than expected. As a result, BTC investors that are looking for confirmation before buying, may do so when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In prior Cycles that has happened in the middle of the bottom/ accumulation phase, so the lower that happens the cheaper price investors can get. So what do you think? Do you deem the current 1W candle close as important as I described? Where do you expect the candle to close, below or on the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
51
BITCOIN getting closer and closer to the 1W MA200Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing a very disappointing start to this week's (1W) candle. This development however is making the price getting closer and closer to fulfil the strongest technical condition of Cyclical behavior: the bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level is now around 22290 but perhaps an even more interesting technical feat is that the current Cycle is approaching the end of the 67 week count, which is how long the previous two measured from their High to the moment the Parabolic Rally started. As you see on the chart, the Cycle that started on the December 11 2017 1W candle, ended 67 weeks after on March 25 2019, when a 13 week Rally started. The rather Phase not Cycle that started after the June 24 2019 High, also ended 67 weeks later on October 05 2020, when a 27 week (almost 2 times the previous) Rally started. The current Cycle started on the April 12 2021 High (though not the absolute High) and if it is proportionate to the previous, the 67 weeks count ends on July 25 2022. By that time, the price 'should' have made contact with the 1W MA200. The question is will the Parabolic Rally that will follow measure 13, 27 or 54 weeks (assuming that each Rally is twice as long as the previous)? Well all three projections are illustrated on the chart. Note that these are not projecting the price (i.e. how high) but rather the duration (how long). Also assuming that the new Rally will be basically only the start of a new hyper Bull Cycle, we can very well see the whole projection with the green double curve pattern. Note that historically, Cycles post their strongest Rallies after each Halving. See the true extent of the Rally after the May 2020 Halving (3). The next Halving (4) is projected to be around March 2024. Finally, an interesting piece of information is the Bullish Cross that the 1W STOCH RSI has posted. When those are made near the oversold 0 level towards the end of the 67 week Phase, they tend to be market bottoms. So what do you think? Does BTC have really only a month or so before a new Parabolic Rally? Or "this time is different"? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19
BITCOIN The amazing symmetry of Cycles shows Bull end of year !!This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the wider 1W time-frame that compares the symmetry of each of its past Cycles. Even though there are certain variables involved, I will keep the post short as the chart is pretty self-explanatory. The idea is to measure each Cycle on a start to end basis that is primarily defined by the moment a Higher Lows trend-line starts that connect the Higher Lows before the Cycles Peak (All Time High at the time) and those that later form the bottom of the Bear Phase. Then for better illustration purposes, a Circle is drawn around the trend-line. The diameter of the Circle is 134 candles, i.e. weeks which is translated to 469 days + 469 days (938 days in total) for each half. The first half represents the mania phase of the final parabolic rally of the Bull Phase and ends after the first correction where investors can still get out with manageable losses and the second half represents the core Bear Phase. The end of the Bear Phase is marked when the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again. Then a period of roughly 50 weeks (350 days) starts until it touches the diameter of the next Cycle. The symmetry between all those Cycles is remarkable indeed. Notice how consistent the Higher Lows, within this 134 weeks long in diameter Cycles, are. Also they maintain a roughly 65°-70° angle in the first half below the Higher Lows and a roughly 110°-115° angle in the second. At the same time the Lower Highs trend-line that led to the Cycle Bottom is roughly on a -30° angle. With this model applied on the current Cycle, we see that a break above the 1W MA50 shouldn't happen before the end of November 2022. Of course we always have to consider the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is touched on Bear Phase bottoms. Do you think this amazing symmetry will fulfil the pattern yet again and consolidate until November? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN Ascending Triangle on a 4H Golden CrossThis is a rather short-term Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 4H time-frame. There are three major developments: 1. The formation of an Ascending Triangle pattern similar with the one of February - March. 2. The break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 10. 3. The formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200. As you see, despite the break above the 4H MA200, the price still got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that started the correction after the March 28 High. That means that for now, the longer-term pattern of this bearish trend-line, overpowers the shorter term pattern of the Ascending Triangle. If the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, it should capitalize on the Golden Cross and most likely break above the Triangle itself. On the Feb - March Triangle, the break-out was limited to below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little over 34000. Notice that the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is slightly below the 1.236 Fib ext, so that is a major Resistance cluster right there. A 1D candle close above those can in my opinion complete the full bullish sequence to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (39300 roughly). On the other hand a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Ascending Triangle, should finally test the much anticipated 1W MA200 (green trend-line), which during the previous BTC Cycles, was the ultimate bottom formation. Keep an eye on the 4H RSI as well, the Lower Highs suggest that a pull-back to 27500 is technically plausible before the break-out is decided. What is more likely to happen for you first? Break of the Ascending Triangle upwards to 39300 or downwards to the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
BITCOIN 1W Bearish Cross with Gaussian turning red.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just made a Bearish Cross between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for the first time since the previous Bear Cycle. In fact that is a technical feat only seen during Bear Cycles and most notably around the bottom. More specifically, in the 2018 Bear Cycle, this Bearish Cross took place 1 week after the market bottom, while in the 2014 Bear Cycle it took place 1 week before it. In addition to that Cross, another important historical indicator that is typically seen near bottoms, flashed a signal. The Gaussian Channel just turned red for the first time since July 2019. However, in both previous Cycles, when this indicator turned red, the price dropped around another -50% before making the market Bottom. We have to keep an eye on that, even though a symmetrical drop would pull the price as low as 16000, which isn't only below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also (considerably) below the Top of the previous Cycle (19800), which has never happened before historically (price in the new Cycle never re-tests the Top of the previous Cycle). With the 1W RSI rebounding on a Lower Lows patterns similar to the January 2015 bottom formation, it seems more likely for Bitcoin to consolidate there for a few weeks as part of an accumulation phase that will form the bottom and give way to a gradual price recovery by the end of the summer. So what do you think? Will the current 1W MA20/100 Bearish Cross form the bottom around the current levels or another -50% drop will take place as suggested by the Gaussian Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
34
BITCOIN The implications of this week's 4H MA200 rejection.Perhaps the biggest development this week for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the clear rejection exactly on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Typically when that takes place during an uptrend, it favors more the dominant (bearish) trend than prepares a switch to a bullish reversal. But let's see how similar patterns have developed price actions in recent cases going as far back as the 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. First I need to make clear that the RSI indicator on the panes below the chart is on the 1D time-frame and not the 4H. First case is the December 2021 pattern, which as you see had also a clear 4H MA200 rejection, then a marginal break above but that wasn't enough with the price extending the bearish trend all the way to 33000 before stabilizing. In June 2021 the price broke almost 2k above the 4H MA200 before being rejected to make a marginally Lower Low than the one that led to the 4H MA200 and then stabilize and gradually prepare a strong Bull run to a new All Time High. Now going back to the December 2018 Bear Cycle Bottom, the 4H MA200 test came just 5 days later with the price clearly breaking above the 4H MA200 but as with the previous cases, dropping back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This time however it didn't make a Lower Low, holding the December bottom which gradually gave way to the accumulation that paved the way for the May - June rally. Notice how on all cases, the 1D RSI printed the same pattern. And practically it was only when BTC broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) that a recovery was established (though in the case of 2021 didn't last for long, even though it made Higher Highs). The 1D MA50 is currently at 34390. What do you think? Do you expect Bitcoin to make one last push lower based on this model? Or reverse to a bullish trend if the 1D MA50 breaks first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN The Channel that is dominating the trend since 2019Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now on the third week (1W candle) after the May 09 weekly low and the first week (so far at least) that is green after a historic streak of 9 red weeks. For this analysis I am using the 1W time-frame as it better displays what I want to show you today and that is a Fibonacci Channel on the log scale that started after the June 24 2019 1W High. This Channel has so far four perfect touches, the June 24 2019 (Higher High) 1W candle, the March 09 2020 (Higher Low) that was the COVID crash, the March 08 2021 (near Higher High) and the recent May 09 2022 1W candle as the new Higher Low. Or at least if it holds it will be classified as a Higher Low because as the longer term Cyclical models show, Bitcoin tends to price a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now at 22190. The similarities both in price and RSI terms between the two sequences within the Channel are remarkable. The 2019/ early 2020 pattern started rising within a Channel Up after an aggressive correction. Then as the price turned bearish and broke below the the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the new correction started with the 1D MA100 rejecting, which only broke once in both cases. That was the last break (where also the 1W RSI broke above its (yellow) MA line) before the final capitulation. In March 2020 that was the COVID crash, in 2022 it remains to be seen if the May 09 1W candle is the equivalent. There is a Resistance formed be the last break above the 1D MA100 in both cases. In 2020 when the price broke above it, the new Bull Run started. We can also claim that it was when the 1W RSI broke above its MA trend-line that the trend entered into long-term bullish territory again. Do you think this Channel will hold and continue to dictate the price action? Or Bitcoin will eventually hit the 1W MA200 as prior Cycles did? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29
BITCOIN Summer 2021 Déjà vu?Just a quick Sunday fractal analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Since the late March 2022 High, the price has dropped to a little more than -47%, trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 1.5 month. The sequence I compare this to is the drop from the May 10 2021 High, which initially bottomed at a little more than -49% then made a Lower Low shake out on June 22 2021 and after trading sideways, the consolidation/ accumulation ended on July 25 2021 when the price broke above the 1D MA50 again. A similar 62 day consolidation puts a potential end to a sideways trend on July 13 2022. The LMACD being already on a Bullish Cross and the RSI rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier, are identical between now and 2021. DO you think as this model suggests, that a break above the 1D MA50 will kick-start a new uptrend and if so can this be achieved in a deja vu manner by the end of July again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BITCOIN The huge significance of the Cyclical Pivot Trend-lineSince my recent analysis on the 'Buy Zone since April 2013' attracted so much interest and reactions by the community, I've decided to extend it. On the current idea, you see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 2D time-frame with the Buy Zone and 1W MA200 (red trend-line present). This time, I've designated the current and past two Cycles with a Pivot line that I'm calling 'The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line'. ** The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line ** This trend-line starts as a Resistance on each Bear Cycle. Then after the 1st Half of the Cycle is completed (red Triangle), the price breaks above the pivot and trades within a pattern that resembles a Channel Up (blue shape), but always above the trend-line, until the bottom is made. ** The 2D RSI ** In the past two Cycles, this bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200, which is currently around 22000 and rising. With the 2D RSI having reached below the 30.000 oversold level and rebounded, that bottom is certainly close. If the RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line, more particularly the (3) leg before the 1W MA200 is hit, then that would mean that the Bear Cycle's Bottom is already priced. This could mean trading sideways within the blue Channel Down as Bitcoin did in late January - early February 2015 and late December 2018 - January 2019. So how important do you think this Cyclical Pivot Trend-line is at the moment? Do you think the bottom will be priced on the 1W MA200 or will the RSI break upwards meaning it's already priced in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
39