BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Btcusdsignals
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Has the ride to $250k started?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for the past 3 months (since the March High) but it is no stranger to such consolidation sequences. Since the start of the current Bull Cycle after the November 2022 bottom, consolidations have been the name of the game, as these served as accumulation phases in the absence of stronger corrections.
BTC has in fact seen similar consolidation phases historically during all previous Bull Cycles. Using the 1M RSI (black trend-line) in particular, we can see that the current consolidation, even though it happens on the All Time High (ATH) level, it is very similar to June - August 2020 and June - August 2016. During all those sequences, the 1M RSI peaked and pulled-back aggressively, even though the price was just trading sideways.
On an amazing display of symmetry, all this happened around 81 weeks (567 days) after the Bear Cycle bottom. The fact that the current consolidation is taking place on the ATH level and the two previous didn't, has to do with the fact that:
a) the last Bull Cycle was less aggressive, peaking at 'only' the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level but also because
b) the current Bull Cycle is more aggressive than expected due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF.
As you can see the Fibonacci Channel Up has been very consistent since late 2013, with the 0.0 - 0.236 Fib range serving as the Buy Zone, which is where BTC continues to trade, despite the uptrend, showcasing its enormous upward potential.
The December 11 2017 Top has been on Fib 1.0, the April 2021 on Fib 0.786, so even a mere Fib 0.5 (not even 0.618) contact at the end of the current rally, would push Bitcoin to $250000. Incredible as it may sound, this validates even the scenario of BTC following the less aggressive, recent Channel Up (blue) that started on Dec 2017. A $250k top would make an ideal technical Higher High.
But what do you think? Is $250k as easy as this model shows for Bitcoin during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Underlying trend-line coming into play.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been holding so far the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support, which was the primary objective, closing all 1D candles since Friday above it, but now an underlying trend-line is coming to center stage as it got tested also on Friday successfully.
That is the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the March 13 High and rejected BTC on Lower Highs initially, before transitioning to a Lower Lows Support on May 23. If that holds, the chances of a rebound towards the Resistance Zone, are amplified greatly. Practically, as long as the 1D MA50 holds, a bullish signal will emerge when the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (red trend-line), in which case we have a target at 72000 (bottom of Resistance Zone).
If on the other hand BTC closes a 1D candle below the underlying trend-line, prepare for 61000 (top of Support Zone) and potentially a long-term bottom formation on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that on the previous Bearish Leg (April 08 - May 01) of this 3-month consolidation structure, the price remained bearish as long as it stayed below the 1D MA50. The 4H MA50 never broke to the upside while the price was above the 1D MA50. That is why it will be a bullish signal if it breaks while BTC is above the 1D MA50.
But what do you think will happen next on the short-term? Will we see 72k or 61k first? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Failure to hold the 1D MA50 leads to $60k.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was rejected yesterday on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and that caused another pull-back that is about to test the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) once again. On Tuesday this level held and is critical to continue to do so as a breach might lead us to $60000.
This is what took place on the April 08 - 19 Channel Down. It is important to note that after the bearish break-out, the price was rejected straight on the 1D MA50, which basically confirmed the continuation to 60k.
We are currently on a similar Channel Down. Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break and push BTC to 60k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Retesting the 1D MA50. Is it alarming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been practically consolidating since the May 21 High and the recent pull-back of the past 5 days is starting to inflict a certain degree of fear in the market again. So far the effect is only on the short-term as yesterday, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was tested (first time since May 17) and held.
This is something we have seen before on February 06 2024 and October 14 2023. All 1D MA50 re-testings have taken place after the price broke below the 1D MA50 (blue arc) and formed the bottom of the Bearish Leg. The pattern can be easily classified into phases, with BTC trading within the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) Mean and the MMB 2SD below. A Channel Up follows after each 1D MA50 test that approaches the MMB.
The only parameter that's left to confirm the start of this (blue) Channel Up that will test the MMB is the 1W RSI to break above its MA level (yellow trend-line). As you can see 100k following that, is a rather conservative technical Target within this pattern.
Do you think that critical psychological level will get hit following this pattern? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- rise to at least 85kBitcoin's price action has been pretty boring in recent days. In fact, for the past three months, BTC/USD has been stuck in a range.
However, as I mentioned in my previous analysis, bulls have held very well above the important 67k support level.
At the time of writing, the price is 71k, once more facing the established resistance.
A break of this level is expected, and a rise of at least 20% should follow afterward.
I remain bullish as long as the price stays above 67k.
BITCOIN You might not be ready for such June!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is doing it and yet again it is going under the radar for some. The price broke out yesterday from its short-term Falling Wedge and as we showed you is extending the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Zooming out to the 1M time-frame, we can see that May closed in gains (green) and since August 2023, there has only been one month of losses (red 1M candle) and that was April. Even though that injected some uncertainty to market participants, we clearly see on this long-term chart that sporadic 1 month losses are very common in Bull Cycles, especially during parabolic rallies.
In fact they are essential as they create the right shake-out conditions to keep fueling the rally. The symmetry among BTC's Cycles is remarkable and right now with the 1W MA50 (black trend-line) in deep support, it is attempting to get detached from the Mayer Multiple (MM) 1 SD above (grey trend-line), much like it did on October 2020 and April 2017.
Based on that, we are looking for the rally to extend to at least the end of the year and reach a Target Zone within $150k - $200k within MM 2 and 3 SD above (orange the red trend-lines respectively). Last but not least, take a look at the 1M RSI, which is also on a symmetry with the previous Cycles and once it touches the Lower Highs trend-line, we should consider to start taking profits regardless of whether of the range the price might be at the time.
But what do you think? Are you prepared for a 'hot' June and if yes, how high do you think BTC will go? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Major Bullish Break-out taking place.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke today above the top of the Falling Wedge pattern, which is technically the Bearish Leg of May's Channel Up. If the days closes above it, we will have a repeat of the May 13 Bullish break-out but this time even stronger as the 1D Stoch RSI has formed a Bullish Cross on oversold territory.
As mentioned on our previous analysis, the last Bullish Leg of the Channel Up peaked at +19.50%, so we expect BTC to replicate this. Our Target is 79000.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDT Forms Bullish Flag Pattern, Eyeing $80000 Target.BTCUSDT has recently formed a bullish flag pattern, indicating potential for a substantial price increase. The immediate target is set at $75,000 following three months of consolidation. However, traders are advised to maintain a stop-loss strategy to manage risks.
BTCUSDT (1D Chart) Technical analysis
BTCUSDT (1D Chart) Currently trading at $69600
Buy level: Above $69500
Stop loss: Below $65900
TP1: $72000
TP2: $75000
TP3: $80000
TP4: $90000
Max Leverage 5x
Always keep Stop loss
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BITCOIN Inverse Head and Shoulders targeting $79500Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is technically about to complete the Right Shoulder of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern (IH&S) that followed the All Time High (ATH) of March 14. The driving vessel behind it is a (dotted) Channel Up whose Bullish Leg peaked at +19.50% and its two Bearish Legs so far have been around -8.00%.
As you may realize, there is a high degree of structural symmetry on these patterns as even the IH&S has distinct Support and Resistance Zones, with Sour interest currently being on Support Zone 1, which has already held twice since May 23.
As a result, as long as it holds along with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), the trend remains bullish and the IH&S technical dynamics target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $89000. However we keep at the moment a shorter term perspective and before 89k, we will aim at $79500, which would be a +19.50% rise, similar to the Channel's previous Bullish Leg.
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Massive liquidity signal triggered.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is starting the final and most aggressive part of the current Bull Cycle: the Parabolic Rally. The latest and perhaps the strongest signal to confirm that comes from the well known liquidity combo indicators that we have developed these past few years.
The Global bonds yields pool (blue trend-line) is reversing upwards again, the first time it does so this year, while the Dominant circulating liquidity + High Yield corporate bonds indicator (black trend-line) is also reversing upwards after seemingly hitting a bottom similar to April 2020, October 2016 and July 2012.
The trigger signal is given by the Stoch RSI (2M time-frame), which just broke above the overbought 80.00 barrier. Every time it has done so historically, it has coincided with a massive bullish reversal on those Liquidity Indicators (LI) and Bitcoin made a Cycle top within 12 - 13 months later.
As a result, we are expecting BTC to peak a year from now, around May 2025. Brace yourself for a wild ride ahead!
But what do you think? Is liquidity about to kick in and cause a massive rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD 1MBTC ~ 1M
#BTC We look at the history of BITSTAMP:BTCUSD as a whole as recorded on the chart.
It looks like #BTCUSD is ready to continue its upward trajectory.
This is marked by a 3 month accumulation phase.
but the bad news is, the increase will not be more than $150,000. Even if it is more, it's probably not much and it's just a bonus.
BTCUSD If any hourly closing sustains below that white line then could 📉 📉 to 62865
If it sustains above white line and a daily closing above 66970 then 📈 📈 to 70274
Any daily closing above 70274 is bullish to 📈 📈 to 77559 marked on the chart
Disclaimer:
Its a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
BITCOIN There is no turning back from this.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the 5th Bullish Wave of the current Bull Cycle, following the consolidation of the past 2 months. Since the November 2022 bottom we have had 4 such waves with consolidations ranging from 1 month to 6 months (blue Channel of April 10 - October 10 2023). The current wave can technically take Bitcoin up to $100k alone.
What is even more bullish than that though is the fact that the whole (ellipse) structure since the October 2023 Low, resembles the sequences of April 2020 - March 2021 and May - December 2017. As you can see, both were Bullish Legs of the 7-year Channel Up. Symmetrically, it appears that we are past its 2nd consolidation (blue circle) and starting the final rally to the Top of the Channel Up.
That means that the Cycle Top can even be marginally higher than $200k until the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is breached again (note that we are past a 1W Bullish Cross also) which can make us start considering a Bull Cycle again.
But what do you think? Is this rise just the start of a wave that will take BTC to 100000 even 200000 if history repeats itself? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is going to 'attack' $150k next. Confirmed!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is starting the next rally phase after the pre and post-Halving 2-month consolidation, a development that is consistent with both of its previous Cycles.
In fact, if traded around and above the Mayer Multiple Band (MMB) of 1 Standard Deviation (SD) above (gray trend-line), which is the exact same consolidation phase it had (blue ellipse) after every time the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) bottomed (blue trend-line).
The astonishing symmetry among BTC's Cycles is evident also when using the Vortex Indicator (VI)- and the CCI both on the 2M time-frame. As you can see, every timr the VI- topped was when the CCI made hits 1st Higher Low following its own bottom. The distance between that point in time (vertical orange line) and the bottom of the BBW (vertical green line) has been around 180 days on each of the past 3 Cycles.
On the last two, Bitcoin topped within 560 - 595 days from the vertical orange line. As a result, we can expect the price to top by the week of March 17 2025 the earliest.
The most important part perhaps is that after each consolidation after the BBW bottom (blue ellipse), Bitcoin's immediate target was the MMB 3SD, which is the orange trend-line. That is currently at $125k but by the time the rally reaches it, it could be closer to $150k.
But what do you think? Do you feel that BTC is about to 'attack' $150k as its next target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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