Next Volatility Period: Around July 2nd
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
The key is whether it can rise above 108316.90 and find support.
When OBV rises above the High Line, we need to check if the PVT-MACD oscillator switches to above the 0 point.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is currently showing signs of entering the overbought zone, I think there is a high possibility of resistance.
We need to check for support in the 108316.90-111696.21 zone, which is the high point boundary zone.
- If OBV fails to rise above the High Line,
- If the PVT-MACD oscillator fails to remain above the 0 point,
- If the StochRSI indicator falls from the overbought zone and switches to a state where K<D,
It is highly likely that it will eventually encounter resistance in the high point boundary zone and fall.
Therefore, what we need to do is to check for support near 108361.90-108353.0.
If it rises after that, we need to check for support near 111696.21.
Entering a new purchase in the high point boundary section is a very risky transaction.
Therefore, a short and quick response is required when making a purchase.
The basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.
Do not forget this.
However, since the HA-Low or HA-High indicators are intermediate values, they may move in the opposite direction.
In other words, there is a possibility that the HA-Low indicator will receive resistance and fall, showing a stepwise downtrend, and the HA-High indicator will receive support and rise, showing a stepwise uptrend.
Therefore, you must check whether there is support in the low point boundary section of the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section or the high point boundary section of the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section.
To do this, you must trade in a split transaction method.
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The next volatility period is expected to start around July 2 (July 1-3).
The reason why we calculate the volatility period is because it can be a turning point of the trend.
Therefore, making a new trade during the volatility period means that there is a high possibility of being caught in a fake.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Here is an explanation of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain the details again when the bear market starts.
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BTCUSDT
BTC/USDT – Fakeout Above Rising Channel | Why Clean Breakouts StThis chart highlights an important lesson in breakout trading: Not all breakouts are valid, even when backed by volume.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
BTC was trading inside a well-respected ascending channel, with multiple touches on both the upper and lower bounds.
Price broke above the channel with a 15-minute candle close and volume, giving the appearance of a clean breakout.
However, shortly after, price re-entered the channel, invalidating the breakout. This is what we call a fakeout or bull trap.
❓ So Why Did the Breakout Fail?
Lack of Follow-Through Buyers:
Despite volume, there wasn’t enough buyer continuation above the breakout level to sustain momentum.
Liquidity Hunt:
The wick beyond the upper trendline likely served to trigger breakout entries and stop losses of short sellers, only to reverse after liquidity was collected.
Key S/R Reaction:
After re-entering the channel, price reacted at a minor horizontal level (previous S/R), attempted another push, but failed again, confirming weakness.
Premium zone tagged — now we watch how the Smart Money reactsBitcoin just tapped into the 108,151 level — the top of a measured premium range and a likely area where profit-taking begins and fresh distribution footprints form.
This run-up wasn’t random. Price surged from inefficiency, cleanly filled the fair value gap (FVG), and is now flirting with a key liquidity pocket.
Here's what the structure says:
Premium reached: 108,151 (0% fib)
If rejection holds, Smart Money looks to discount entries:
0.236: 106,136
0.382: 104,889
0.5: 103,882
Deep retracement zone: 0.618 at 102,874
Final defense for bulls? The unmitigated FVG block between 101,440 → 99,613
Possible Playbook Scenarios:
Quick retrace → higher high:
Bounce off 104,889 or 103,882 before attacking 108,967+
Deeper sweep:
Into 102,874 (0.618) before Smart Money steps in again
Invalidation:
Break below 99,613 closes this bullish narrative and confirms a structural break
TL;DR Execution Logic:
Wait for retracement into 0.5–0.618 fibs
Look for bullish reaction (engulfing or SFP)
Upside targets:
108,151 (retest)
108,967 (liquidity sweep)
Further upside if momentum sustains
1 Year of Bitcoin Bull Run Remaining? In the chart above, we’re analyzing Bitcoin’s historical cycles to see if the current cycle follows a similar pattern.
Bear Run (1 Year): In each of the last three cycles, Bitcoin experienced a bear market lasting exactly 1 year from the all-time high (ATH). This phase saw a significant drop in price as the market corrected.
Bull Run from Bottom (1,064 Days): In the last two cycles, once the bottom was established, Bitcoin entered a consistent bull market that lasted approximately 1,064 days. During this period, the price gradually climbed, eventually reaching new highs.
Current Bitcoin Cycle:
So far, the current cycle appears to be following the same pattern as previous cycles. We’ve already experienced a 1-year bear market after reaching the previous all-time high (ATH).
Currently, we have completed 2 years of a bull run from the bottom, aligning with the 1,064-day bull run observed in past cycles. Based on this historical pattern, we may have 1 year of bull run remaining, which could potentially push Bitcoin to new highs by late 2025.
If this trend continues, it suggests a strong opportunity for growth over the next year, mirroring the end phase of past cycles.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Regards
Hexa
BTCUSDT: Bounce Incoming?BTCUSDT Technical analysis update
-March 2024 resistance is now expected to act as a strong support level.
-The price has touched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential reversal from this zone.
-The 200 EMA on the 2-day chart is positioned as a strong dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish case.
We can expect a bounce from the $72-75k level.
Here is an analysis of the latest Bitcoin market trendBitcoin has surged to around $106,700 at its peak and hovered around $104,800 at its low. Overall, the trend remains relatively stable, continuing to stay at a relatively high level. What is driving the market?
First, institutional funds have flowed in again. Recently, many investors have bought Bitcoin through ETFs, with substantial capital inflows, which has formed support for this price level.
Second, the technical outlook is promising. Various technical indicators suggest that it is still a bullish market, meaning the price may continue to rise.
Third, regarding support and resistance levels: if the price declines, it may first find support near $104,000. If it breaks upward, the next target is roughly between $108,000 and $110,000.
What about the short-term trend? If it can break through $107,000, it may then surge toward $109,000 or even the high of $112,000. If it fails to break through, it may fluctuate repeatedly within the range of $104,000 to $106,000 for a period.
you are currently struggling with losses,or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results.
Trading Strategy:
buy@104300-104800
TP:107000-107500
I don't know why ???Bitcoin is now at a point where it cannot be ignored! In my view, the bullish wave has started after the corrective wave ended. This wave could continue until it breaks the ascending triangle, then with a slight correction, push the price upward again. The current period and the coming days could be crucial in determining the market's trend.
Best regards CobraVanguard.💚
UNEXPECTED RISK CRASH FREE FALL AFTER TREND DATA FOR TH NEXT 48HDepending on our study, BTC has a high chance of a new crash below 100K.
The next 48 hours are important for the trend change of BTC, which can allow the trend to free-fall below 100K
BTC is at a top, and it did recovery always recovered on the M volume top., We are now again on the same trend.
BTC can return below 100K as this update shows, with the possibility of targeting the main target 85K - This is the trend zone for new interest.
The reason for this crash is that BTC has not confirmed the cycle, which means the end of the cycle. There is always possibility that the market can act green, but we expect it can show an unexpected breakdown.
2/1/15I’ve found a fractal on Bitcoin. Today is June 25, 2025, 13:22 — I’m analyzing the 2-hour timeframe from the high on May 22 up to today, and the same pattern of pre-accumulation is forming as in 2024, from March 13 to July 29, 2024.
We are also inside a pattern I named “Dragon’s Wings.” It forms two peaks at the highs after a strong rally, and the shared low between them creates a deep retracement.
Whether this pattern leads to the beginning of a major drop and a bear cycle, or whether it’s a pre-accumulation structure in a buffer zone, depends on the area in which it forms.
In this case, the 93–74K zone is potentially a re-accumulation zone, with a reversal to the upside — possibly taking Bitcoin above $140,000.
Bitcoin Update 25.06.2025 —Altcoins, Top Altcoins Choice & MoreGood morning my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, I hope you are having a nice week and a wonderful day.
We have good news to start today and it is all based on Bitcoin's price action. This is going a bit deep on the daily noise, price swings.
Price action analysis
Bitcoin went deep on its sideways range and tested below 100K. This is normal for a sideways market. The positive news comes from the fact that Bitcoin is once more trading above $106,000 and already hit above $107,000. This type of action reveals a bullish bias.
If the market was mainly bearish with a major drop on the deck, say going below 90K or 80K even, then Bitcoin would not be allowed to go beyond $105,000. In fact, any bounce or small recovery would be quickly sold as bear would be active, waiting and selling each time prices move up.
The fact that Bitcoin can grow day after day and consume all selling pressure while doing so, reveals a strong presence from buyers. We know this to be true because Bitcoin is now in a new phase in its evolution and growth cycle. It is truly a young technology that only now is being fully accepted with plenty of room available for growth.
We have three instances where Bitcoin moved above 110K. The selling that happened afterward is not filled with pressure, instead you can see some standard candles as prices continue to consolidate.
On the other hand, notice the last session from 21-June (21-24 June —3D candles). You can see a long lower shadow, a bullish hammer; there was definitely strong buying pressure as soon as Bitcoin reached below support.
Altcoins market action
Some altcoins continue to produce multi-months high. The highest price since January 2025. These altcoins recovered, started to rise and continue rising in clear, standard bull market fashion. Literally straight up.
Some altcoins did even better and grew as high as December or November 2021. The highest price in almost four years. This is very important when we go deep into the chart and price action because it is the main revealing signal. The altcoins simply do not go on a major bull market before a market crash. If the altcoins are recovering or rallying, it is because the market is set to "buy." The Cryptocurrency market is in bullish mode.
If the market was set to drop long-term then we would be experiencing a rise that is running out of momentum. This rise would later peak and a surprise sudden flash crash would signal the start of a major downturn. This is not what we see.
Inversely, if prices are going to rise strongly we start by seeing some form of retrace or correction, this event losing momentum and volume and then finally a strong bullish jump as soon as support is confirmed. This bullish jump would signal the start of a major market move. This is what we are experiencing today.
Bitcoin & Altcoins
Bitcoin and the altcoins move together. Bitcoin leads the altcoins, the altcoins reveal what Bitcoin will do when the action is sideways.
We can always say that Bitcoin is leading the altcoins of course because Bitcoin has been growing non-stop since November 2022. The major trend being bullish the altcoins are set to follow at some point.
Now, when Bitcoin goes sideways, by definition, anything goes. The market can break-down just as it can break-up. This is where the altcoins become useful.
If smaller Cryptocurrency projects are moving ahead, strongly and even producing 3-4 multi-year highs, it reveals what Bitcoin will do once its consolidation period ends.
Buying Bitcoin
In short, Bitcoin is going up. The next major market move is a rise and we have proof coming from the signals, the altcoins and the charts.
Never again in its history Bitcoin will trade below 80K. 90K soon to be gone... Once the action starts, you will look like a genius for buying below $110,000.
What to choose: Bitcoin or altcoins?
Now, my personal suggestion is different. If you are not a whale, the way to go are the altcoins. Why? Because there is more room for these to grow. We can say that the altcoins are riskier, but risk is almost non-existent with spot. We can simply focus on the pairs that have been filtered by the major exchanges. Reputable pairs with a long track record and plenty of room available for growth. You can't go wrong with those.
If you are ready for the 2025 bull market, leave a comment below.
Altcoins analysis by request
I think it is time for a new Your Top Altcoins Choice, session. It is always wise to do these when the market hits bottom or before a major bullish wave, that's exactly where we are now. If you agree and would like to see a new session, leave a comment saying "Yes! Top Altcoins Choice." If there is enough interest we can work together and find many hidden gems. It can be done with your support.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Roadmap: Key Levels to WatchBitcoin( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) managed to pump as I expected yesterday , of course, the main catalyst could have been the ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel , which had a major impact on high and medium risk assets in the financial markets .
Bitcoin is once again moving near the Heavy Resistance zone($110,720-$105,820) and the Resistance zone($107,520-$106,100) after breaking the Resistance lines .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that given Bitcoin’s bullish momentum , Bitcoin has completed the main wave 3 and is currently completing the main wave 4 on the 1-hour time frame . The corrective wave structure of wave 4 could be a Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect Bitcoin to start rising again near the Support zone($104,380-$103,060) , 50_SMA(Daily) , Support lines , and Cumulative Long Liquidation Leverage($104,412-$103,812) to rise at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and Resistance lines .
Note: Stop Loss(SL)= $102,600 = We can expect more dumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Bitcoin - overview with Initiative AnalysisHey traders and investors!
📍 Context
On the daily timeframe, the market is in a sideways range.
The boundaries are marked with black lines.
Buyer initiative is currently active.
Targets: 108,952; 110,530; 111,980.
📊 Key Actions
The seller attempted twice, on increased volume, to break down below the range, but both times the buyer brought the price back inside. Only seller wicks remained below the lower boundary.
🎯 Trade Idea
🔹 Look for long setups from 105 500 -104,622 or the 103,400–100,718 zone.
There is no context for short trades at the moment.
This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA).
Wishing you profitable trades!
NZDJPY TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALS DETAILED ANALYSISNZDJPY has just completed a bullish breakout from a well-defined symmetrical triangle on the 4H chart, confirming the start of a fresh impulsive move. Price action has broken cleanly above the descending trendline resistance around 87.400, supported by consecutive bullish candles with momentum. This breakout structure is signaling trend continuation, and I’m now targeting 89.500 as the next key resistance zone. The pair has also held higher lows consistently, showing strong bullish pressure in the medium term.
Fundamentally, the New Zealand Dollar remains supported by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s persistent hawkish stance. With the RBNZ maintaining higher interest rates to combat sticky domestic inflation, NZD has found strong backing in recent sessions. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken across the board, with the Bank of Japan maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy and no real signals of tightening. Japan’s latest inflation reading came in weaker than expected, further dimming any hawkish BOJ bets.
Today’s sentiment also reflects a global risk-on environment, with equities up and commodity-linked currencies like NZD benefiting. This reinforces bullish momentum in NZDJPY, especially as yield differentials between New Zealand and Japan favor carry trades. Technically, the pair could see brief pullbacks toward 87.100–86.900, which may offer fresh entries for bulls aiming to ride the breakout wave toward 89.500.
With technical confirmation, bullish momentum, and a supportive macro backdrop, NZDJPY looks well-positioned for further upside. I’ll be watching for sustained price action above the breakout zone, and any dips will be viewed as buying opportunities. The trend is up, and momentum is real—this is a textbook breakout setup aligned with both fundamentals and price action.
Bitcoin Reclaims Momentum: War Fears Fading, Bulls Eye $125K! MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN just delivered a powerful bounce right off the critical $100K level. A key psychological and technical support zone tested multiple times in recent sessions. This time, the bounce came with strong volume confirmation, signaling renewed buyer interest. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, market confidence is returning, fueling bullish sentiment across the board.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC now looks poised to retest the $110K resistance zone, where some short-term rejection could occur. However, a decisive breakout above $110K opens the gates for a potential rally toward the next major target at $125K. Stay sharp, always manage your risk, and don’t forget to set a proper stop loss. The trend is strong, and momentum is building!
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BTCUSDT – Rebound from trendline, targeting 115,300On the daily chart, BTCUSDT has bounced from a confluence support zone around 105,200, where the rising trendline meets the FVG, confirming that the bullish structure remains intact. The current price pattern suggests a continuation of the uptrend, with a short-term target at the 115,300 resistance zone — a level that has previously rejected price multiple times.
If this level is broken, momentum could extend toward the 120,000 area in the medium term. As long as the price holds above the trendline, the bullish outlook remains valid.
On the news front, market sentiment is improving as Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. show signs of renewed inflows, coupled with growing expectations that the Fed might pause rate hikes due to recent signs of economic weakness.
Bitcoin - What's next ? BINANCE:BTCUSDT (12H CHART) Technical Analysis Update
Now that ceasefire is announced, bitcoin price has successfully recovered to the resistance level and currently trading at the resistance zone. It's critical that bitcoin breaks this resistance for it to hit the next resistance around 110K .
I'm expecting price to reach 110k this week and we can see some consolidation in that range before moving further up.
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Cheers
GreenCrypto
Bitcoin Recovers...What we've learned in the past few years is that Bitcoin's demand is just too strong. Retraces and corrections are no longer wild like before, these are limited and capped. Nobody wants to take the risk of selling too much and being left out or losing their Bitcoins for good, they are just too valuable. Many times more valuable than the USD Dollar or Gold. It is the most valuable asset in the whole digital world.
Other than food and toilet paper, nothing is more valuable than Bitcoin.
Technical analysis
Ok, let's focus on the chart.
The retrace has been ongoing for 31 days, since 22-May.
Total drop amounts to 12.33% (-12%).
The action moved below the 5-June low around $100,400. Bitcoin is now back above this level. Clearly showing that this is a stop-loss hunt event.
Stop-loss hunt and liquidity hunt because thousands, if not millions, of over-leveraged traders have been liquidated. They were betting on the wrong side short-term. Long-term yes, bullish is the trend, the direction and the win. Short-term, it was SHORT but not anymore.
Never trade with 20X that's crazy. Imagine going LONG 20X at the all-time high? Isn't that stupid?
I can bet you the same people didn't want to buy LONG when Bitcoin was trading at $75,000. In fact, I can bet that these people that just got liquidated were selling below $80,000 and buying LONG with 20X at $110,000. A recipe for disaster.
Anyway, I am calling it early. This is it, we are going up.
I got my signals, as you already know, from the altcoins.
If you agree boost and follow.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Weekly Ultra-BearishThe 100K support is still valid but the weekly timeframe chart isn't looking good.
Good afternoon my fellow Cryptocurrency trader, how are you feeling today?
Bitcoin peaked the week 19-May. Then we have bearish action only.
The week after 19-May was red, then two neutral weeks and a continuation this week. It looks pretty bad right now, terrible to be honest.
» The main support range sits between $82,500 and $88,888.
Thank you for reading.
This support zone will only become active is 100K breaks on the weekly timeframe.
Namaste.
BTC - Getting 2021 Double Top/Bearish VibesLooking at the weekly chart for BTC, I'm seeing similar price action from when we double topped in 2021. We hit the top of the channel, corrected, and then had a slightly higher high before going down hard. Again we hit the top of the channel, had a strong correction, only to hit it again for a slightly higher high. But the signs of market weakness are showing in the indicators and price action. Not to mention war is looming between Israel and Iran. I'm taking a defensive posture here. I think if the bears take control, we could hit the $60k liquidity area that we missed on the last correction. We can reassess the market better at the time based on the price action and current events.
BTCUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Range Bound with Bearish BiasFrom the 4 - hour chart of BTCUSD, the price movement shows obvious range - bound fluctuation characteristics 📊.
Currently, it is necessary to focus on the key resistance and support zones 🎯:
From a technical perspective, BTC is likely to oscillate repeatedly within the range in the near term 🔄, yet the overall trend leans bearish 🐻.
In the short term, opportunities for buying low and selling high within the range can be monitored 📈📉
⚡️⚡️⚡️ BTCUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@106500 - 105500
🚀 TP 104500 - 103500
🚀 Buy@102500 - 103500
🚀 TP 104500 - 105500
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
How to Tell BITCOIN is BULLISH using MOVING AVERAGES OnlyBTC is trading sideways and it sparks a lot of debate whether or not we are at the beginning of a new bearish cycle, or if there is still a push upwards waiting to happen.
Here's how you can use the Moving Averages to determine whether or not BTC is bullish.
Don't miss this update on my stance on the market and why I think ALT Season is waiting:
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Market SIGNALS SHOW THAT BTC CAN FALL TO 85K USDMarket follow-up study shows that there is a good chance BTC can fall to 85K in the coming time period. The market cycle seems to end the green trend and to enter a new red zone.
Time will show what really can happen with BTC.
The market can make a fake trend, with a trend fall on a high time frame.
The crash can also happen on the main markets.
This is not trading advice, trade always only depending on your plan.