#BTC Is the bull market still there?📊#BTC Is the bull market still there?
🧠From a structural perspective, the weekly and monthly uptrends are still intact, so the bull market is not over yet, so I labeled this analysis "LONG". Unless a weekly short structure is built, I think we still have a chance to see 132k-175k.
➡️From a cyclical perspective, we are currently entering a daily adjustment phase. The daily structure cannot change the weekly and monthly uptrends, and we are expected to maintain a complex consolidation for another 5 months, and we may see the results in September.
➡️The current daily downtrend has not ended, and it is approaching the overlapping blue resistance area. Don't go bullish against the pressure. If the weekly closing price in the future can be higher than the overlapping resistance area, then the resistance will turn into support. Only when you step back to this area again can you look for opportunities to go long, otherwise you need to pay attention to the long opportunities in the yellow support area below.
Let's see👀
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTCUSDT
The start of the first important volatility period of the year
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This is the first day of the volatility period.
The key is whether it can rise from the downward channel.
This volatility period is expected to last until March 26.
The point of interest is whether it can break out of the downward channel and receive support near the Fibonacci ratio range of 2.618 (87814.27) ~ 1.618 (89050.0).
If not, we should see if it can find support near Fibonacci 2.24 (83646.12) and rise without going below the downtrend line.
If it holds above the downtrend line, we should see if it can rise above Fibonacci 1.618 (89050.0) during the next volatility period around April 5th.
In any case, if it breaks out of the downtrend channel and holds, I think it is likely to turn into an uptrend.
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(1M chart)
As I mentioned before, we should not forget that there is no trend line formed by the low point of the StochRSI indicator on the 1M chart, so volatility may occur to create a trend line.
Therefore, whether it can complete the trend line while receiving support near the 69000 ~ 73499.86 range and rising is an important point of observation from a long-term perspective.
In this sense, what we can choose is to see whether it can receive support near the current location, that is, the StochRSI 50 indicator point of 83983.20.
If the support is broken, it can fall along the downtrend line.
This period of volatility is expected to be the first important period of the year.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
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No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
It is up to you to decide how to view and respond to this.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bullish Momentum: Key Levels and Trade Setupuddy'S dear friend 👋 SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾 🗺️
Technical Analysis:
Timeframe: 4-hour chart
Current Price: $88,244
Trend: Uptrend within an ascending channel
Supply Resistance Zone: $92,721 (Potential reversal area)
Fair Value Gap (FVG) Support Zone: $87,200 - $87,600
200 MA Resistance: Price is approaching the 200 Moving Average, which could act as resistance.
Key Levels:
1. Support:
FVG Zone (~$87,200 - $87,600) – Potential buy zone
Major Support: $86,649
2. Resistance:
$92,721 (Supply Zone) – Key target level
$90,000 Psychological Resistance
3. RSI Indicator:
Currently at 76.37, indicating overbought conditions.
A potential pullback could occur before further upside.
Mr SMC Trading point
Risk Management Strategy:
Long Entry: Near FVG Zone (~$87,200 - $87,600) if price retraces.
Stop Loss: Below $86,649 to limit downside risk.
Take Profit: Around $92,721 for a risk-reward trade.
Market Outlook:
Bitcoin remains bullish, but the RSI suggests a possible pullback before continuation.
A retracement into the FVG Zone may provide a better buying opportunity before the next leg up.
If price breaks below the FVG zone, the uptrend could weaken.
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Asymmetrical Triangle (Neutral) or AB=CD (Bullish) for BTC?BINANCE:BTCUSDT has formed bullish divergence on Daily TF and continues its upward momentum. BTC has also formed two trading patterns:
1. Asymmentrical Triangle: This neutral pattern can break out in either direction
2. Bullish AB=CD: This continuation pattern on the weekly tf coupled with bullish divergence on daily tf indicates imminent continuation of the bullish trend.
Buy stop order on break of LH could be a good trading idea!
BTCUSDT: Target Achieved, What's Next for 87,500 Resistance?Upon reviewing the trading strategy devised last week, the current market price has successfully rallied to the targeted level. Bitcoin against Tether (BTCUSDT) is quoted at 86,780, registering an intraday gain of 0.84%. From the vantage points of technical analysis and market dynamics, the robust resistance level in the vicinity of 87,500 above emerges as a pivotal factor in determining whether the price can sustain its upward trajectory.
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
BTC ANALYSIS#BTC Analysis : Channel Following
📊As we can see that #BTC is following ascending channel on daily time frame. Currently the price is trading above its major support zone. Price is moving upwards within a long-term rising channel, recently moving towards its support from its support level. Expect a bullish move in few days.📈
🔖 Current Price: $87,700
⏳ Target Price: $91,500
⁉️ What to do?
- Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.🚀💸
#BTC #MajorSupport #Cryptocurrency #ChartPattern #DYOR
Bitcoin: Today's Trading StrategyCurrently, the upward trend of BTC is very obvious. In terms of trading, it is recommended to continue taking long positions, with the target set at around 90,000 points.
BTCUSDT BUY@85,000-85,500
TP: 88,000-90,000
I share accurate signals every day and conduct accurate and real-time analyses of Bitcoin trading, which can help your account achieve stable profits. Click on the link below the article to obtain these signals.
BTC Today's strategyHi guys, it's a new week and the charts show it's moving up the channel
Looking back on the trading strategy we developed last week, we were undoubtedly successful. Now that the price has exceeded 87K, we still need to pay attention to the resistance of 88K, as it is the determinant of whether the upside can be
btcusdt buy@84.5K-85K
tp:87.5K-88K
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BTC:Short at high levelsAs per my previous strategy, Bitcoin is on an upward trend. It witnessed a strong rally at today's opening and faced short - term resistance around 88,000. If it fails to break through 88,000 in the short term, one can seize the opportunity of the price pullback from the high level to initiate short positions.
BTC Trading strategy:
Sell@88000-88500
TP1:85500
TP2:84000
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Bitcoin Continues Moving Toward Key TrendlineBitcoin has started moving toward the trendline after a brief pullback, testing the key support zone and finding footing there. The move toward the yellow downtrend line will likely continue this week. After testing the trendline, the market’s real direction should become clearer.
86750 (horizontal support) and 85000 (uptrend support) are key levels to watch, while the ultimate target, the yellow trendline is currently around 89900.
BTCUSDT - it's breakout ? What's next??#BTCUSDT.. market just broke our resistance and going to close above that.
Keep close that because 85100 is now our supporting area and if market holds that then further bounce expected.
Note: keep in mind that below 85100 we will cut n reverse on confirmation .
Good luck
Trade wisely
Market overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, bitcoin tested the key zone of $85,000-$88,000 (volume zone). After receiving the seller's reaction, we formed a local structure that questioned the global decline.
In the daily analysis on TradingView on Friday, a support zone of $84,800-$83,500 (pushing volumes) was noted. After the test, we received a reaction and confirmed the buyers' intentions to move the quote to higher levels.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, longs are a priority. The confirmation of this scenario will be overcoming the $87,500 level. The target for the movement is the $95,000 mark, and there is no significant resistance before it.
Despite the fact that we’re in an uptrend, there are no volume zones of the buyer up to the minimum mark of $76,000. Therefore, with strong market activity of the seller at the current level, it’s possible to resume the decline to the lows.
Sell Zones:
$95,000–$96,700 (accumulated volumes)
$97,500–$98,400 (pushing volumes)
$107,000–$109,000 (volume anomalies)
Buy Zones:
$77,000–$73,000 (volume anomalies, pushing volumes)
IMPORTANT DATES
About the macroeconomic news this week:
• Monday, March 24, 13:45 (UTC) — publication of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector and the index of business activity in the US services sector for March;
• Tuesday, March 25, 14:00 (UTC) — publication of the U.S. consumer confidence index for March and data on new home sales in the United States for February;
• Wednesday, March 26, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK consumer price index compared to February 2024;
Wednesday, March 26, 10:00 (UTC) — publication of the UK spring budget forecast;
• Thursday, March 27, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of US GDP for the 4th quarter of 2024, as well as the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Friday, March 28, 7:00 (UTC) — publication of UK GDP for the 4th quarter of 2024;
• Friday, March 28, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic price index of US personal consumption expenditures for February, as well as in comparison with February 2023.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
BTC/USDT: Bullish Momentum Targets Key Psychological LevelOn the 1-hour timeframe, the BTC/USDT market is exhibiting a clear uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. The recent break above a downward trendline led to an extended move upward, bringing the price to a test of last week’s high, where a potential pullback could emerge.
Zooming out, the broader structure reveals the formation of an ABC pattern, with the move appearing to target the psychological level of 90,000. It is common for markets to consolidate around significant levels before breaking out, suggesting that price may hover near this area in the short term. Barring any unforeseen market disruptions, the current momentum supports a retest of the area above 90,000, with the next key target at the resistance zone around 89,000
What BTC is showing?! Full Scenario As of now market is really slow... Why?
As the History of BTC shows that market never formed a new high with out retesting its Support or previous Resistance level, as in 2020 market break its Resistance level which was 19,000 and market formed a new high in 2021 which was 68,000 after that market didn't formed a new high until it retested its last support level 19,000. After retesting 19,000 market shows us a new high of 109,000 and since Market has formed a new high it didn't retested its Support level which is 68,000, so According to me history will be repeated here, till market don't retest its previous level which is 68,000 market will be slow and bearish. After that market will perform a new high.
According to RSI there is also a bearish divergences which support my vision.
BTC/USDT "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the BTC/USDT "Bitcoin Tether" Crypto Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : The heist is on! Wait for the breakout of (80000) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell stop below the MA line or Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in swing/retest.
📌I strongly advise you to set an alert on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (84000) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 68000 (or) Escape Before the Target
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, On Chain Analysis, Quantitative Analysis, Intermarket Analysis, Sentimental Outlook:
The BTC/USDT "Bitcoin Tether" Crypto Market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearishness).., driven by several key factors.
⭐Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis assesses Bitcoin's core metrics and market position. Here are the key factors:
Market Capitalization: Approximately 1.68 trillion USD, calculated using the circulating supply of 19.83 million BTC multiplied by the current price of 85,000 USDT. This reflects Bitcoin’s significant presence in the crypto market.
Trading Volume (24h): Around 31.44 billion USD, indicating robust liquidity and active trading activity over the past day.
Circulating Supply: 19.83 million BTC, out of a maximum supply of 21 million BTC, meaning 94.4% of the total supply is already in circulation.
Price Context: Bitcoin’s current price of 85,000 USDT is below its all-time high of 109,356 USD (reached on January 20, 2025), suggesting it is in a corrective phase but still well above historical lows (e.g., 2 USD on October 20, 2011).
Key Insight: Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain strong with a high market cap and active trading volume, but the price being below its recent peak indicates potential vulnerability or a consolidation period.
⭐Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomic conditions influence Bitcoin’s price as a global asset. Here are the relevant factors:
Global GDP Growth: Forecasted at 3.0% to 3.3% for 2025, suggesting moderate economic expansion worldwide. This level of growth may support risk assets like Bitcoin but isn’t strong enough to trigger significant inflation concerns.
Commodity Prices: Expected to decline by 5% in 2025, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as an inflation hedge since falling commodity prices signal lower inflationary pressure.
Stock Market Performance: U.S. stock indices are up 5% year-to-date (YTD) as of early 2025, reflecting a positive risk-on sentiment that often correlates with Bitcoin’s performance as a speculative asset.
Interest Rate Policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates in 2025, which could weaken the USD and make Bitcoin more attractive relative to USDT (a USD-pegged stablecoin). Conversely, the Bank of Japan may raise rates, though this has a limited direct impact on BTC/USDT.
Key Insight: Macroeconomic conditions are mixed—declining commodity prices may dampen Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge narrative, but stock market gains and potential Fed rate cuts could bolster its price.
⭐Global Market Analysis
Global market trends and events provide context for BTC/USDT’s performance:
Geopolitical Events: No significant geopolitical tensions are currently reported as of March 5, 2025. This reduces demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, unlike during periods of global unrest.
Central Bank Policies:
Federal Reserve: Expected rate cuts could weaken the USD, potentially driving BTC/USDT higher as investors seek alternatives.
Bank of Japan: Anticipated rate hikes may strengthen the JPY, but this has minimal direct influence on BTC/USDT unless it triggers broader currency shifts.
Commodity Trends: A projected 5% decline in commodity prices may ease inflation fears, indirectly reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value.
Global Risk Sentiment: Mixed stock market performance globally suggests a neutral stance on risk assets, with no strong directional push for Bitcoin.
Key Insight: Without major geopolitical catalysts, Bitcoin’s price may hinge on central bank actions, particularly Fed rate cuts that could weaken the USD and support BTC/USDT.
⭐Commitment of Traders (COT) Data
COT data offers insights into large trader positions, though specific BTC/USDT COT reports are not directly available. Here’s an inferred analysis:
Technical Ratings: Current indicators for BTC/USDT show a “sell” signal, with oscillators (e.g., RSI, MACD) and moving averages (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) trending strongly bearish.
Trader Positioning: The bearish technical outlook suggests large traders (e.g., speculators) are likely net short, anticipating further price declines.
Market Implications: This positioning could amplify downward pressure if selling continues, though a reversal in sentiment could trigger a short squeeze.
Key Insight: The inferred COT data points to bearish sentiment among large traders, aligning with technical signals and suggesting a downward bias.
⭐On-Chain Analysis
On-chain data reflects Bitcoin’s blockchain activity and holder behavior:
Unmoved BTC: Approximately 151,000 BTC, acquired at an average price of 97,800 USDT, has not moved despite recent volatility. This indicates strong conviction among holders at higher levels, potentially acting as resistance.
Accumulation Patterns: Some accumulation occurred near 83,000 USDT, suggesting buying interest at lower levels. However, rapid selling has dominated, with one-third of BTC accumulated between 96,000–97,500 USDT redistributed during the recent decline.
Supply Concentrations: Thin supply exists between 93,000 and 83,000 USDT, with notable clusters at 84,200 USDT (23,000 BTC), 86,900 USDT (25,800 BTC), and 88,900 USDT (46,000 BTC), indicating key price levels where holders may act.
Key Insight: On-chain data shows a mix of strong holding at higher prices and selling pressure at current levels, hinting at capitulation but also potential support forming near 83,000–85,000 USDT.
⭐Market Sentiment Analysis
Market sentiment reflects trader and investor psychology:
Social Media Sentiment: Posts on platforms like X reveal a split outlook—some traders predict a drop to 75,000–73,000 USDT, citing technical weakness, while others see a potential bullish reversal if support holds.
Sentiment Index: Total positive sentiment is estimated at 0.75 (on a scale from -1 to 1), suggesting moderate optimism despite recent declines.
Fear and Greed Index: Specific data is unavailable, but the mixed sentiment aligns with a neutral-to-slightly bullish stance.
Key Insight: Sentiment is mixed but leans slightly bullish, indicating cautious optimism amid uncertainty.
⭐Positioning
Positioning reflects how traders are aligned in the market:
Speculative Positions: Likely net short, inferred from bearish technical signals and COT-like trends, suggesting traders are betting on a decline.
Institutional Positioning: Hedge funds have increased exposure to Bitcoin ETFs, indicating growing long-term interest that could counterbalance short-term selling.
Market Dynamics: Short positions may dominate near-term price action, but institutional buying could stabilize or reverse the trend.
Key Insight: Short-term bearish positioning contrasts with potential long-term bullish institutional interest.
⭐Next Trend Move
The next likely price movement is based on current data:
Direction: Downward pressure is favored, driven by technical sell signals and bearish positioning.
Key Levels:
Support: 80,000 USDT; if breached, 75,000–73,000 USDT becomes the next target.
Resistance: 95,000 USDT, a level that would need to be overcome for a bullish reversal.
Triggers: A break below 80,000 USDT could accelerate selling, while holding above 85,000 USDT might signal stabilization.
Key Insight: The next trend move likely tests lower support levels, with a potential drop to 75,000–73,000 USDT if momentum persists.
⭐Other Data
Additional factors impacting BTC/USDT:
Institutional Adoption: Hedge funds are increasing exposure to Bitcoin ETFs, a bullish signal for long-term price support as institutional capital flows in.
Regulatory Changes: The SEC’s employee buyout program in 2025 could lead to shifts in crypto regulation, introducing uncertainty and potential volatility.
Market Trends: Bitcoin’s limited supply (21 million BTC cap) and growing mainstream acceptance bolster its long-term value proposition.
Key Insight: Institutional interest is a positive wildcard, but regulatory uncertainty could shake confidence in the near term.
⭐Overall Summary Outlook
Overview: On March 5, 2025, BTC/USDT at 85,000 USDT exhibits a cautiously bearish outlook. Technical sell signals, bearish trader positioning, and recent on-chain selling pressure point to downside risks. However, strong holding behavior at higher levels (e.g., 97,800 USDT), potential institutional support via ETF exposure, and a slightly bullish market sentiment suggest a reversal is possible if support holds. Macroeconomic factors like expected Fed rate cuts could weaken the USD and provide tailwinds, though declining commodity prices may temper Bitcoin’s inflation-hedge appeal. Risks include a drop below 80,000 USDT or volatility from regulatory shifts.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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