Bitcoin Overshoot - Last Bullish Swing - 5th WaveMARKETSCOM:BITCOIN #trading was good to me.
I was able to predict and ride the #Bullish #Cycle like a pro.
Trade Recap
From the $17K I was actively looking for buys.
Also entered BITSTAMP:BTCUSD #Long from the GETTEX:25K mark, on the #Break-out.
At the Wave 4 Completion and 5th Wave Break-Out, I went Long again on $BTC.
At $100K Milestone I cashed it all in, I was a bit weary...
All well documented in the previous #Bitcoin Idea.
What's Next For MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN ?
I am entering the Last Long, to ride the 5th of 5th Wave.
After this #Bull #Swing I am expecting a considerable #Correction.
After the push, some wild moves will occur, and that's because of the CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D (BTC Dominance).
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Correction in Wave 2 will pave the way for $Altcoins (#Altcoins), thus the $Altseason (#AltSeason) to start.
Yes, MARKETSCOM:BITCOIN shall fall, while the CRYPTOCAP:OTHERS ( CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 ) would most likely grow in #TotalMarketCap.
* You can see the related ideas for more clearance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD / BINANCE:BTCUSDT - #TechnicalAnalysis
- Elliott Wave: #Impulse Confirmed (5th Wave)
- Mar '20 - Apr '21 #Fractal (orange)
- #ATH Break-Out & #Support
My Levels For Longs
- Entry @ $100K
- SL @ $85K
- TP @ $145K
* After this move, I will take a break and look for #Short set-ups.
This is because of the #Bearish #Fractal (red).
BTCUSDT
BTC/USDT 1H: Bulls Building for a Break to $109K!BTC/USDT 1H Chart Analysis
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Current Price: $104,991
Market Structure:
Consolidation phase after rejection at $107,200.
Accumulation visible at the $103,000-$104,000 support zone.
Key Levels:
Support: $103,000-$104,000
Resistance Targets:
T1: $107,200 (+2.2%)
T2: $109,000 (+3.9%)
Stop Loss: Below $102,800 (-2%).
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: 48.5 (neutral), showing hidden bullish divergence forming.
Trade Strategy (Confidence Level: 8/10):
Entry:
Scale in: 40% at $104,900, 30% at $104,000
Targets:
T1: $107,200
T2: $109,000
Risk Score: 7/10
Market Maker Activity:
Accumulation at support suggests institutional buying.
Liquidity grab below $104,000 followed by a swift recovery indicates strength.
Likely targeting previous highs once consolidation completes.
Notes:
Wait for confirmation above $105,500 for aggressive entries.
Volume profile shows healthy institutional interest.
Recommendation:
Long positions with proper scaling and risk management.
Watch for breakout confirmation above $105,500 for higher confidence.
Confidence Level: 8/10 for bullish continuation.
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BITCOIN // primary long expansionThe market is bullish on every timeframe, and there is a countertrend break at the daily target fibo 100 (daily peak).
The next targets are the daily target fibo 138.2-161.8 and the weekly target fibo 200.
The trigger for this idea is a significant break above the highest CLEAN M15 breakdown.
The idea is valid until the Daily impulse base breaks.
———
Orange lines represent impulse bases on major timeframes, signaling the direction and validity of the prevailing trend by acting as key levels where significant momentum originated.
Level colors:
Daily - blue
Weekly - purple
Monthly - magenta
H4 - aqua
Long trigger - green
Short trigger - red
———
Stay grounded, stay present. 🏄🏼♂️
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Bitcoin on 5th Elliot Wave ? Whats next ?
I think there can be little doubt as to the fact that we ARE on the 5th Elliot wave and so an ABC correction should be expected.
The question is how Deep will that go
And we all know how hard that is to predict, Stupid to try and be to clever about it, even more so these days with times changing in Crypto world
However, given market sentiment, I do not think it will go to deep
TradingView has an excellent tool for Elliot waves but I do think this is predicting a drastic drop in error
As you can see, it suggests a drop down to around the 200 EMA ( Yellow) at around 51K !
I do not think we are going to see that just yet. Bitcoin has broken so many rules again. Including the bearish pennant it destroyed in Jan 2023
For me, I think it is highly unlikely we will Drop to far and the long term rising support line off Jan 2023 is the Floor for now.
Even a Vertical drop from our current position would being us to around 73K on the rising Support line.
We are most likely in for a long Ranging again and we have yet to fully see the range width
( having said that, it could drop like a Stome, be prepared )
The deepest dip so far this cycle has been -29% when we ranged for 6 months in March - Sep 2024. This then bounced off the rising support and brought us to where we are now.
So could we see an ABC correction in a similar range ?
YES - a -30% Drop also brings us nicely into the still open CME gap at 77K - 80K. It needs filling and CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled eventually.
A Dip like that over the next 6 months would also reset the overbought Weekly MACD
As you can see, that MACD needs to reset, BEFORE we try for the Cycle Top ATH.
It took 6 months to cool off in March - Sep 2024
MACD can range high but I have never seen that on a Weekly.........But.........
Accumulation is still happening. Adoption of BTC is high
So, in conclusion, we wait. The FED next week will certainly add to the Mix with its choice of Rates
But what ever happens, BTC is currently OVERBOUGHT on Weekly - Rising from neutral on a Daily and falling Bearish on 1 & 4 hour
It can move higher, it would be better if it cooled off for a bit
And in the back of my mind, I still see that 2013-2017 Fratal that also suggests a -30% pull back - but we are getting late fo that if we going to stray on the fractel
Time Will tell
When Doing Nothing Is the Hardest TradeSometimes, the most difficult decision in trading is deciding not to trade. Today is one of those days.
The current market conditions are complex. On one hand, I see a high probability of a correction. But on the other, the market is running hot, and shorting doesn’t feel like the best option. Volatility in BTC is narrowing, and volumes are steadily declining—clear signs that the market is building up for a decisive move in either direction.
In such a scenario, shorting becomes exceptionally challenging. The tightening range suggests the market is preparing to break out, but the direction remains uncertain. Jumping in prematurely could mean getting caught on the wrong side of the move.
So, today is a no-trade day. Sometimes, sitting on the sidelines and waiting for clarity is the smartest move a trader can make. After all, patience is a virtue in markets as much as it is in life.
Bitcoin is building pressure for a real breakFor over a month, BTC has been trading within a range, with well-defined support at the 90k level and resistance around the 110k zone.
Two days ago, the price briefly reached a marginal new all-time high before reversing. However, following this pullback, the price quickly recovered. Over the past five trading days, it’s clear that the price is building momentum, creating pressure for a potential breakout.
If (and when) this breakout occurs, it could lead to a continuation of the upward trend, with a measured target around the 130k level.
BTC.D - Official Alt Season ?Charting this on a weekly timeframe is tough, so use it as a reference point only.
I’ll provide more precise analysis on lower timeframes, but this represents my general macro outlook. But: Start preparing for an Exit Strategy. You are warned.
1st area of Interest = Green Box (45-46%)
2nd area of Interest = 43% Horizontal Support and close Trendline Support
3rd area of Interest (in case we got very lucky) = 39.70%
ETH/BTC I didn’t anticipate the green box to hit when we began reversing on November 18th, but here we are—it’s a strong reversal zone. If this level doesn’t hold, 28/29 is likely next.
I haven’t seen the strength I expected, even with WLFI (Trump's World Liberty Financial) aggressively buying ETH.
but it's now or never so I except a quick reversal from next week.
The Cursed Token - $ETHBullish outlook...
On a critical level (Elliott Wave is used as a timeline reference; targets will be evaluated level by level)
Green Box looks good to offload before we hit a major correction later this year. (but once we move beyond this CHOPsolidation, the situation will become much clearer for assessment.
SHIBA update#SHIBA can make another down wave because it made a triangle with 5 waves
there is a down wave before the triangle which is wave A
the whole triangle is wave B
now we are waiting for wave C
its the last correction before making new highs
check out our last analysis on shiba in higher time frames
BTC/USDT CHART UPDATE !!BTC has sustained its move above the descending trendline, indicating a valid breakout with continued bullish momentum.
The green zone between $92,000–$96,000 remains a critical support area. Any pullbacks into this region could present buying opportunities.
The 50-day SMA (red) at $98,596 is trending upwards, providing additional dynamic support.
BTC is trading above key moving averages, reinforcing the positive trend.
The chart suggests a potential pullback followed by a continuation to the upside.
The projected path (orange line) targets the $112,000–$116,000 resistance zone.
Assess volume during pullbacks to ensure strong accumulation support for the upward trend.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
BTC 121k and then the Bull Run StartsSo right now we are at about the max of our next consolidation zone which is. almost the local high 109,975.00usd then i think we form a flag or wedge up here as we consolidate then run to 121,676.00usd then the bull run will start....that will trigger the retail into the space.
BTC IS GOING TO ALL TIME HIGH LADIES AND GENTLEMEN ! BTC ended up in a complex WXY correction. Initially what may have seemed like a FLAT ended up being WXY. No matter how much the MM plays with the market and no matter what news hits the screen, algos always run their course guys.
We are in the early formation of wave 3, which will make history. True we may retrace a bit more to tap the lower levels but this will sling shot BTC to the ATH ! Remember the deeper the retracement of wave 2, the higher will be wave 3, a slingshot - - get it ;). Mega hidden bullish divergence on the weekly also playing out well.
Invalidation of this idea is at the low of Wave Y. WorD of advice guys, avoid over leverage and practice risk management fells. DCA is the name of the game. When Bitcoin hits ATH, all ALTS will pop like fireworks hence DCA and Spot Buy is the name of the game, especially for all the young bucks and inspiring traders out there.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice.
BTC/USDT Analysis: Bitcoin Riding the Waves of Optimism As we dive into this BTC/USDT chart, it’s clear that Bitcoin is not just a cryptocurrency—it’s an art form. The chart showcases a detailed Elliott Wave analysis, complete with corrective W-X-Y patterns and impulsive waves screaming, “I’m going places!” Let’s break it down step by step.
The Elliott Wave Breakdown
Bitcoin has been playing out its Elliott Wave structure with the precision of a virtuoso pianist. Here’s what we’re looking at:
1. Wave (1) to Wave (5): A Symphony of Higher Highs.
2. Wave (1) was the opening act, starting the bullish rally.
3. Wave (2) provided a dramatic correction, retracing as deep as a poet’s feelings on a rainy
day.
4. Wave (3) emerged as the headliner, the longest and strongest wave, with Bitcoin shouting,
“Catch me if you can!”
5. Wave (4), our consolidation buddy, is taking a breather, making sure BTC doesn’t exhaust
itself before the final sprint.
6. Wave (5) looks ready to take the stage and hit the projected target of $128,647.56. The bulls
seem to be prepping their rockets for this one.
2. The W-X-Y Correction
Before the current rally, BTC went through a complex W-X-Y correction. Think of it as Bitcoin saying, “Let me stretch a bit before the next marathon.” This correction has set the stage for the bullish impulses we’re seeing now.
Indicators: The Whispering Bulls
1. Williams %R and Stoch RSI: Hidden Bullish Divergences
Both indicators are practically screaming “hidden bullish divergences” like fans at a rock concert. These signals suggest that the bulls are working behind the scenes, setting the stage for the next big move.
2. RSI: Staying Strong
The RSI remains comfortably above 50, signaling that the bullish momentum is intact. It’s like Bitcoin is cruising down the highway, windows down, music blasting, and no signs of slowing.
The Price Target: To $128,000 and Beyond!
Bitcoin has been known to defy expectations. While $128K might feel like aiming for the moon, let’s not forget—this is Bitcoin, and the moon is just the first stop.
Key Levels to Watch
1. Support Zones
The $80,000 level is a key psychological support. If Bitcoin revisits this area, it could serve as a launchpad for the next leg up.
2. Resistance Levels
The $100,000 mark will likely be a battle zone. Expect bears to put up a fight here, but with the momentum we’re seeing, the bulls might just plow through.
In Conclusion: Strap In, Bulls
Bitcoin is looking bullish on all fronts. The Elliott Wave structure, hidden bullish divergences, and strong RSI readings all point to higher prices in the near future. However, as always, remember that markets love surprises, and it’s always good to keep your risk in check.
For now, though, it looks like Bitcoin is preparing for a grand finale. Let’s hope the bulls keep the momentum going because $128,647 is calling, and Bitcoin seems eager to answer. 🚀
Disclaimer: NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE!
THETA long term analysis updatei made an analysis on this coin weeks ago the main pattern is not changed these is a selling pressure on this coin when it touches the VWAP indicator but it made a perfect pattern for rising we have to wait for the last drop and after that the market will insanely rise !
BTCUSDT H8 : New RoadmapHi Friends,
Following the previous analysis of Bitcoin and the rejection above the ATH , I expect such a movement from the chart. And once again, liquidity can be collected above the historical ceiling.
SecondChanceCrypto
⏰ 21/Jan/25
⛔️DYOR
Always do your research.
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