BTCUSD SURELY DOWN Counter-Analysis (Disrupting the Bearish Outlook)
Bullish Continuation Instead of Rejection
If BTC breaks through the resistance zone near $87,792 instead of reversing, it could aim for $92,305 or higher.
A breakout with strong volume could lead to a new uptrend rather than a drop.
Strong Demand at Support Levels
The suggested bearish drop assumes that support levels will fail, but BTC could see significant buying pressure around $78,000–$74,000.
If buyers step in aggressively, the price may consolidate and push higher rather than continue downward.
Higher Low Formation Instead of Breakdown
The chart suggests BTC will drop below $70,000, but if it forms a higher low above $75,000, it could confirm an uptrend instead.
Trendline support or moving averages could prevent a deep correction.
Fundamental Factors Supporting BTC
Macroeconomic conditions, ETF inflows, or institutional demand could prevent a major sell-off.
If the Federal Reserve signals dovish policies, BTC could stay strong rather than droP
Btcusdtanalysis
BTCUSD: If trading, buy or sell?Dear traders, are you still wondering how to trade BTCUSD? Short or buy? Then take a look at Jack's ideas.
BTCUSD: Combined with the current trend, the bottom is initially formed, so in terms of operation ideas, my suggestion is to buy BTCUSD at a low level. Currently, below 82,000 is a good buying point.
The top pressure of 8,600 above still exists. On weekends, this is a dense trading area. As the top of a short-term decline, when the market rises, this will be converted into a pressure position.
Combined with the current trend, there is still a lot of room above, so buying is a reasonable choice.
Keep an eye on the real-time trading opportunities announced in the analysis circle every day. If you want to follow.
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🏁Buy entry above 89000
🏁Sell Entry below 78000
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📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, On Chain Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future Prediction:
BTC/USDT "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto market is currently experiencing a 🐼Bearish Trend in short term (Trend will expect to move on 🐂Bullish in future),., driven by several key factors.
⭐⚡🌟Fundamental Analysis⭐⚡🌟
Fundamental analysis for BTC involves assessing its intrinsic value based on adoption, utility, network security, and regulatory developments.
Adoption & Utility: By March 2025, Bitcoin adoption has likely continued to grow, with more institutions (e.g., ETFs, corporate treasuries) and countries (e.g., El Salvador-style experiments) integrating BTC. The Lightning Network and other scaling solutions may have matured, enhancing transaction speed and reducing costs, boosting its use case as a payment system.
Network Security: Bitcoin’s hash rate is likely at an all-time high, reflecting robust miner participation despite rising energy costs. Halving cycles (last one in 2024) reduce issuance, reinforcing scarcity at $84,000.
Regulatory Environment: Global regulation remains mixed—some nations embrace BTC (e.g., pro-crypto U.S. policies under a potentially favorable administration), while others (e.g., China) maintain bans. Regulatory clarity in major markets could be a tailwind.
Development Activity: Ongoing upgrades (e.g., Taproot enhancements) signal a healthy ecosystem.
Conclusion: Fundamentals are strong, with scarcity and adoption supporting a bullish outlook, though regulatory risks linger.
⭐⚡🌟Macro Economics⭐⚡🌟
Macro factors influence BTC as both a risk asset and a "digital gold" hedge.
Inflation & Monetary Policy: By 2025, inflation may have moderated from 2022 peaks, but persistent debt levels (e.g., U.S. debt-to-GDP >130%) and money printing could bolster BTC’s appeal as an inflation hedge. If central banks (e.g., Fed) maintain loose policies or cut rates, BTC benefits.
Interest Rates: Higher rates in 2025 (e.g., 3-4%) could pressure risk assets, but BTC’s decoupling from equities (observed in prior cycles) suggests resilience.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, U.S.-China trade wars) and sanctions drive capital flight to decentralized assets like BTC.
Dollar Strength: A weakening USD (DXY potentially below 100) supports BTC’s rise as an alternative store of value.
Conclusion: Macro conditions lean bullish, with BTC thriving amid uncertainty and dollar erosion.
⭐⚡🌟COT Data (Commitment of Traders)⭐⚡🌟
COT reports from futures markets (e.g., CME Bitcoin futures) provide insight into institutional positioning.
Commercial Hedgers: Likely net short at $84,000, locking in profits after a rally from 2024 lows.
Large Speculators: Net long, reflecting bullish bets by hedge funds and institutions anticipating further upside post-halving.
Small Traders: Overly long and crowded, a contrarian signal of potential short-term exhaustion.
Open Interest: Rising OI at $84,000 suggests strong conviction, but a spike could signal an overleveraged market ripe for a pullback.
Conclusion: Mixed signals—bullish institutional bias with short-term caution due to retail crowding.
⭐⚡🌟On-Chain Analysis⭐⚡🌟
On-chain data reflects real-time network activity.
HODLing Behavior: High percentage of BTC unmoved for 1+ years (e.g., 65%+ of supply) indicates strong holder conviction at $84,000.
Exchange Reserves: Declining BTC on exchanges (e.g., 1.8M BTC vs. 2.5M in 2021) signals reduced selling pressure.
Transaction Volume: Stable or rising volume supports price legitimacy, though a drop could hint at waning momentum.
Realized Cap: Likely near all-time highs, reflecting long-term holders’ profits and new capital inflows.
MVRV Ratio: If above 3 (market value significantly exceeds realized value), BTC may be overbought short-term.
Conclusion: On-chain metrics are bullish, with accumulation outweighing distribution, though overbought risks emerge.
⭐⚡🌟Intermarket Analysis⭐⚡🌟
BTC’s correlation with other markets shapes its trajectory.
Equities (S&P 500): Correlation may have weakened by 2025, but a tech-led rally (e.g., AI stocks) could spill over to BTC.
Gold: Inverse correlation strengthens as BTC gains "digital gold" status—gold at $2,500/oz could coincide with BTC at $84,000.
USD: A declining DXY (e.g., 95) supports BTC’s rise.
Bonds: Rising yields (e.g., 10-year Treasury at 4%) pressure risk assets, but BTC’s safe-haven narrative mitigates this.
Altcoins: If ETH/BTC or other pairs are strong, altcoin outperformance could cap BTC dominance (e.g., 45% vs. 60% historically).
Conclusion: Intermarket trends favor BTC, with selective decoupling from risk assets.
⭐⚡🌟Market Sentiment Analysis (All Investor Types)⭐⚡🌟
Sentiment varies by cohort.
Retail Investors: Euphoric at $84,000 (e.g., X posts screaming "to the moon"), a contrarian sell signal.
Institutional Investors: Optimistic but cautious—ETF inflows (e.g., BlackRock’s BTC ETF) remain steady but not parabolic.
Whales: Accumulating dips (per on-chain data), signaling long-term confidence.
Miners: Selling pressure eases post-halving as higher prices offset lower rewards.
Social Media Trend: Search reveals polarized views—bullish memes dominate, but bearish "bubble" warnings grow louder.
Conclusion: Sentiment is overheated short-term (retail FOMO) but structurally bullish (institutional/whale support).
⭐⚡🌟Next Trend Move Prediction (Short, Medium, Long Term Targets)⭐⚡🌟
Based on technicals, cycles, and above factors:
Short-Term
Target: $92,000 (potential upside) or $78,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A moderate level of buying pressure could push BTC towards the $92,000 level. However, if selling pressure increases, BTC could drop to $78,000.
Medium-Term
Target: $110,000 (potential upside) or $60,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A sustained level of buying pressure could push BTC towards the $110,000 level. However, if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, BTC could drop to $60,000.
Long-Term
Target: $140,000 (potential upside) or $40,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A strong level of adoption and favorable regulatory environment could push BTC towards the $140,000 level. However, if the global economic outlook worsens, BTC could drop to $40,000.
⭐⚡🌟Overall Summary Outlook⭐⚡🌟
Current State: BTC at $84,000 reflects a strong rally, likely post-2024 halving, supported by fundamentals and macro conditions.
Risks: Regulatory crackdowns, overleverage, or a macro shock (e.g., recession) could trigger sharp declines.
Opportunities: Institutional adoption, dollar weakness, and scarcity drive upside.
Final Call: Short-term Bearish (correction imminent), Medium/Long-term Bullish (uptrend intact).
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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BTC:sell@85K-87KYesterday I emphasized that BTC will start to rise after reaching 78K, and you can continue to short it when it reaches 85K
btcusdt sell@85-87K
tp:82K-80K
Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $500,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
BTCUSD buy signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
BTCUSD: If trading, buy or sell?Dear traders, are you still wondering how to trade BTCUSD? Short or buy? Then take a look at Jack's ideas.
BTCUSD: After the low of 76600 hit the support, BTCUSD reversed. Yesterday, it also led them to sell high and buy low. Every transaction is almost 4000 points. Back to today, the New York market is about to open. The 83,000 barrier above was not broken today, and the highest rebound was 82,000. In terms of the overall trend, the short-term trend is still bearish. So selling at high levels is my idea. There is no news barrier at present.
Short selling in the range of 82,000-81,000. Waiting for a sharp drop in the market. tp77000.sl83500.
Keep an eye on the real-time trading opportunities announced in the analysis circle every day. If you want to follow.
Bitcoin Perfect bounce off the 2;272 Fib - we need to stay above
Bitcoin retraced down to 76573 usd and this is just below the 2.272 fib extension line at 78930.
Previously, PA had dropped to this area at 78187 on 28 Feb
We can slao see how on 9th Nov 2024, PA has found this line ot be resistance but managed to break through, leading to the cueent ATH
This is why we really do not want to loose this area as support and I believe th ebulls will try and keep it best they can
However, the Bears are out in Force in many forms.
To aid the Bulls, we have Pa oversold in many time frames on RSI and MACD
This could give support while we continue to wait for the weekly MACD to reset to Neutral
We have a few more weeks to wait and so the question is, can the Bulls hold up ?
For me, now we have hit what I hope is the Bottom rung of the ladder in this Range, we now Bounce up higher - But this will not h appen untill tomorrow maybe, which is when we get the USA inflation data, pointing towards interest rate decisions.
Which I believe will not get cut anymore this year...But that is OK - it is stable.
But we have to wait and see how PA reacts.
Be on huiard and Cautious.
BTCUSDT: Will It Rise Again?After experiencing consecutive declines, the support level of BTC has shifted downward again, and the downward trend is obvious. However, after the decline ends, it may start an effective upward movement.
Today's trading strategy for BTC:
btcusdt buy@76K-78K
tp:80k-82K
Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $500,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
BTC/USDTMy analysis states that the future trend of Bitcoin and the declines in the long term will be as you see. A decline to the range of 45,000 to 46,000 and then a return to the area of 61,000 to 71,000.Then s steady movement in this range and the accumulation of liquidity and then an upward phase to prices of 195,000 and above.
BTC: About to RiseBTC has experienced a significant decline today and is approaching a key support level. It may迎来 an effective upward movement. Pay close attention to the key support level at 78K.
Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $500,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
Btcusd bullish mode Bearish Disruption to This Bullish Outlook
1. Lower High & Breakdown Structure (Bearish Bias)
The chart shows a clear lower high formation, indicating the market is in a downtrend cycle.
Price has already broken previous support and is retesting lower levels, which may act as resistance now, making the bullish path less likely without significant momentum.
2. Weak Rejection from Demand Zone (Bearish Warning)
The first bounce from the demand zone (around $78,000) is weak and lacks follow-through buying pressure.
This could mean buyers are not committed, increasing risk of demand zone failure and further drop toward $74,000-$72,000 levels.
3. Volume Analysis (Lack of Buyers)
Notice how the volume on the latest bounce is weak, showing no significant accumulation. For a strong rally to $90k+, we'd expect climactic buying volume—which is absent here.
Weak volume near critical zones often precedes false breakouts or deeper dives.
4. Possible Bear Flag or Continuation Pattern
Current consolidation between $78k-$80k may form a bearish continuation pattern (bear flag).
A break below $78k could trigger a sell-off targeting $75,000-$72,000.
5. Macro-Level Resistance Above
Even if BTC pushes up temporarily to the first supply zone around $83,000, heavy resistance and profit-taking likely happen there.
Without macro bullish news, sustained push to $90k+ is questionable in this current technical context.
Alternative Bearish Scenario Path (Disruption Path):
Break below $78,000 confirms sellers in control.
Targets:
First Target: $75,000
Second Target: $72,000-$70,000 (psychological support & previous demand area
BTCUSDT - single supporting area, holds or not??#BTCUSDT.. so now market just near to his current supporting area that is 85150 around
Market holding that level in day chart as you can see day graph.
Now again that is our supporting area and below that we can expect short.
Keep close.
Good luck
Trade wisely
BTCUSDT TRADING POINT UPDATE >READ THE CHAPTIANSMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ crypto Traders SMC-Trading Point update you on New technical analysis setup for crypto BTC USDT. ) crypto Traders BTC USD ) list time post signals 🚀 Hit sucksfully My target point ) Now update on New analysis setup. BTC USDT still drop 💧. Trend 📉. Technical patterns FVG) 85k. Back down trand target point 78k.
Key Resistance level 85k
Key Support level 81k- 78k
Mr SMC Trading point
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 2-Hour Chart Analysis – Potential Reversal orBitcoin (BTC/USDT) 2-Hour Chart Analysis – Potential Reversal at Key Support
1. Chart Pattern Analysis:
The chart illustrates a double-top formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern.
The price failed to break above $94,000 twice, leading to a strong decline.
The red curved line suggests a rounded top pattern, reinforcing the downtrend.
Price has now reached key support around $78,000, marked by a red arrow.
2. Key Support & Resistance Levels:
Resistance: Around $92,000 - $94,000 (previous double-top highs).
Support: Near $78,000 (tested multiple times as a demand zone).
3. Volume & Market Behavior:
A significant spike in volume at the support zone indicates potential buying interest.
If buyers step in, a bounce from this level is likely.
A break below $78,000 could lead to further downside.
4. Trade Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Reversal Scenario:
Price bounces from $78,000, forming a potential W-bottom pattern.
Confirmation needed if price reclaims $81,000-$82,000.
Possible upside target: $85,000-$88,000.
❌ Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
If BTC breaks below $78,000, the next support is around $75,000-$72,000.
High volume selling could accelerate the decline.
5. Indicators & Confirmation:
Parabolic SAR: Dotted red lines above price indicate bearish momentum.
Watch RSI & MACD: If oversold conditions appear, a reversal is more likely.
Conclusion:
Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (if support holds), Bearish (if broken).
Trade Plan: Wait for confirmation above $81,000 for a long position.
Stop Loss: Below $77,500 to minimize risk.
Target: $85,000 - $88,000 on a rebound.
There are no failed investments, only failed operationsI. Trend analysis
🔹 overall trends:
Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a clear upward trend, peaking at nearly $115,000.
The price has recently fallen below several key support levels and entered a downward trend, with prices testing support in the 80,000-85,000 range.
The short-term trend remains weak, and the market may continue to seek lower support levels.
🔹 moving average system:
The short-term moving average (red, 10th) indicating that the market is still dominated by short-term bears.
The long-term moving average (blue, 60 days) has also started to turn downward, suggesting a weakening of the medium-term trend.
Conclusion: The market is still in a downward trend, and the moving average system shows no obvious signs of stabilization.
Structural analysis (K-line morphology)
📌 head and shoulders may have been completed:
From the high level formed by 93,000 to 115,000, there is a more obvious head and shoulder structure, which is currently falling below the neckline (82,000) and accelerating the decline.
If this pattern holds, the target decline level may test the 77,000-80,000 area.
📌 M head shape:
The previous two highs (around 100,000) formed an M-head and fell below key support, remaining weak in the short term.
📌 support area:
77000 (important support, if broken, the medium-term trend may accelerate to short)
72000~ 75000 (target in extreme cases)
📌 resistance areas:
89000~ 90000 (early neckline, has turned to strong resistance)
93000 (if the market rebounds, it needs to break through this level to reverse the trend)
Bitcoin Collapses $80K, What’s Next?Its price briefly stabilized around $86K over the weekend before heading south at the start of the business week. It dropped to around $80K, leaving millions in liquidations on a 24-hour basis. Later, bulls stepped in and pushed the valuation to nearly $84K. The resurgence, however, was short-lived and was followed by another free fall to as low as $79,500. As of this writing, BTC is trading around $79,000, representing a 5% drop on the day. Its market cap dropped below $1.6 trillion.
While many industry players are hopeful that this is another temporary pullback that can be replaced by a new bull run, others are not so optimistic. Next up is a re-estimation of $78K for BTCUSD, “if that fails, the next $76300, 75,500 in the crosshairs.” BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
BTCUSD: If trading, buy or sell?Dear traders, are you still wondering how to trade BTCUSD? Short or buy? Then take a look at Jack's ideas.
A new week has begun again. Good morning, dear traders. Do you plan to make money or lose less in the market this week? How to do it?
BTCUSD: BTCUSD fell sharply again in the market over the weekend. After the opening of the new week, it hit a low of 80,000 points, a drop of 10k. It is a good profit for those who sell. But it may be uncomfortable for those who do more. Unless you place a low-risk order, you will stop your order or expand your loss if you trade rashly without guidance.
There is no major adjustment on the news side. The stock index futures in the US market fell sharply after the opening. BTCUSD is suspected to follow the trend and fall. The current BTCUSD quote is 82,300. With the arrival of daylight saving time. Some US economic data are one hour ahead of schedule, and the opening of North American stock markets is also the same. Bitcoin rose sharply when Trump listed it as a "strategic reserve currency" last time. The market has been showing a bearish trend, and there is no news impact at present. It is still mainly shorting at high levels. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the support of 79k. The upper side needs to pay close attention to the short-term pressure of 86k.
Keep an eye on the real-time trading opportunities announced in the analysis circle every day. If you want to follow.
Bitcoin Weekly Closed RED and scared some people .What now ? That was a horrible week for many
Uncertainty for those that do not understand Bitcoin and the JOY of buying more at a cheaper price for others.
I will admit to thinking PA was going ot bounce over the weekend and then get down to where we are now..It went down over the wweekend.. I do not mind... My SPOT buy orders began triggering.
So, on a slightly longer term, The Triangle that PA was in was always going ot squeeze PA to early.
Why ?
Because, as ever, we are waiting for the weekly MACD to Cool off. and it is only half way down currently
As you cana see, we have begun falling a Bit steeper than we did in Last years Long Range, were MACD also needed to cool off.
If we fall at the same rate as previously, we will hit Neutral around June. If we fall this steeply as we are now, that could be early May - Once weekly MACD hits Neutral, PA will certsinly have enough power to push p way past the current ATH
The Daily Version of the same chart shows us the support we now sit on
This line of Support is not amazing in many ways, as we can see by how PA has fallen through and climbed back up through it many times
What IS strong is that Fib Ext below at around 68200 but I think Will are unlikely to reach that.
The Rising line of support above that at around 73K is possible, though again, I think it is unlikely.
A Wick down to the 78K area is Very possible however.
This week could get Volatile as we get MACRO news from the World and USA inflation data is released.
Look to the future....and just BUY and GOLD Bitcoin
Today's trading strategy for BTCOn the weekend, BTC experienced another significant decline and has reached the vicinity of the key support level of 80K below. There has been a slight upward movement in the short term, but the downward trend still hasn't changed. Pay attention to the trading range of 80K-87K. If it rises again, you can continue to go short. If the test of the 80K support level is effective, you can try to buy in the short term.
Today's trading strategy for BTC:
btcusdt sell@87K-88K
tp:85K-82K-80K
buy@78K-80K
tp:82K-85K
Currently, my account balance has grown from an initial $40,000 to $500,000 in profits. I will share accurate trading signals every day, and you have the option to copy my trading orders. If you're interested in getting these signals, you can click on the link below this article.
#BTCUSD 1DAYBTCUSD (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is approaching a key support level, which has previously acted as a strong zone for price reversals. This level is crucial for determining the next directional move.
Forecast:
It is advisable to wait for the price to reach the identified support level. If the market shows signs of a bullish reversal, such as bullish candlestick patterns or strong buying pressure, a buy opportunity may be considered.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Monitor the price action near the support level and consider buying if there is confirmation of a bounce.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the support zone to manage risk in case of a breakdown.
- Take Profit: Target the next resistance levels for potential upside gains.
Market Sentiment:
Market sentiment will be confirmed upon testing the support level. A strong bounce would indicate bullish interest, while a breakdown may signal further downside. Waiting for confirmation will help in making a more informed decision.