Long Term Bitcoin SituationRemember the time that we broke out the major bull flag in Bitcoin? It caused many new all time high levels in recent months. The problem is that Bitcoin lost its 5 waved bullish momentum. We see an upwards move only because of the fundemantel news.
I believe we are currently in a correction phase known as A-B-C pattern according to Elliot Waves theory. In order for Bitcoin to create another all time high level, there some requirements to achieve.
First, another bullish fundemantel actor in macro economic events. This could be an interest rate cuts, something about ETF's or even some crayz idea from Trump himself. Problably, it will be about intrest rates to be cut down in next june.
Second, Bitcoin needs to gain its delta momentum back (it's called CVD). For many weeks while Bitcoin has risen up, there were some significant movements in futures section. Bulls and long term holders were keeping their positions. With acceptence of the ETF's, spot Bitcoin volume was increased as well. The problem about this part of the story is, big instutial money that carried Bitcoin upwards is leaving. It's mostly because of the new politics that Trump has brought to the US. Instutial money or simple retail traders don't really like when there is an uncertainity about the economy. Fear and uncertainity is taking smart money away from Bitcoin. When this situation changes, money flow will change again and Bitcoin may catch the momentum it needs.
As the last requirement, Bitcoin hasn't actualy swept all the remaining liquidtiy below the lastly formed bullish flag. It's important for two reasons:
1: In technical terms, it will be fine retest and safe entry.
2: All the rookies who play around with futures sections in exchanges will be eliminated. So there will enough liquidty to go upwards again.
Remember, market always run for the liquidty and all the tecnical things you heard from people around is shaped by this consept. We will meet below 70K again before this summer.
For short term, I believe there will be another uprising move before upcoming pullback. It will be a short one and will get people in.
You see RSI below the chart that it's broken a trendline. Usually it's something good but in this case, even though some other indicators tells us that Bitcoin catch is momentum back again, I don't believe its that simple. As an another example, MACD also screaming out for Bitcoin to rise at the this moment in the daily chart. As I mentioned earlier, it's all caused because of the fundemantel news. Nothing real.
Good Luck to us all .
