BTC/USDT.P ShortMy Trade Thesis & Rationale:
Here is my thinking on this short setup. I believe this is a high-confluence opportunity where the price action aligns perfectly with what I'm seeing in the underlying market dynamics.
1. The Big Picture (Daily/4H Context):
Price is currently operating at a major historical resistance zone ($110k+). This level has acted as a "ceiling" multiple times, making it a high-probability area for sellers to step in.
I've noticed that momentum on the 4-hour chart has clearly stalled, which to me signals buyer exhaustion after the last run-up.
2. The Tactical Setup (1H/15M Price Action):
After stalling at the highs, the price formed a clear distribution range on the 1-hour chart—a sign that sellers were likely absorbing the remaining buying pressure.
✅ THE TRIGGER: My entry is based on a decisive, high-volume breakdown below the key support of this range at $107,300. This breakdown was followed by what I see as a weak, low-volume retest, confirming buyer weakness and offering a prime entry.
3. My Logic:
🎯 TARGET: I've set my take profit at $106,800 because it's located within a dense pool of long liquidations. I believe these levels often act as a strong magnet for price.
❌ INVALIDATION: My stop loss at $107,550 is placed just above the broken structure. If the price reclaims this level, my bearish breakdown thesis would be proven wrong, and it's my signal to get out.
