BTC Today's strategyThe balance of long and short power in the market suggests that there may be explosive movements in the short term. At present, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating in the range of 82,000-85,000 US dollars, and the short-term resistance is at 86,000 US dollars. A break through 86,000 US dollars could trigger a new round of gains
Bitcoin ETF funds have seen net outflows for five consecutive weeks, with demand falling to the lowest level in 2025, indicating that institutional funds are withdrawing and market sentiment is turning cautious. However, institutions such as MicroStrategy continue to buy, providing some support for bitcoin prices
The market is worried about the risk of possible liquidity tightening before the FOMC meeting in March, the uncertainty of the global economic situation and the signs of monetary policy adjustment in some major economies, making traditional financial marekts more attractive, and there is a trend of capital flowing back from the cryptocurrency market to the traditional financial field, which has some pressure on the bitcoin price
btcusdt sell@85500-86500
tp:83K-81K
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BTC Today's strategyIndustry News: Japanese listed company Metaplanet increased its holdings of 162 BTC, which to some extent reflects institutional optimism towards Bitcoin, and may have a positive impact on market sentiment, attracting more investors to pay attention and buy. However, Bitcoin's real-world application is still relatively limited, and its fundamentals are still relatively weak, which may limit the price of Bitcoin in the long run.
From the supply side, after bitcoin hit its highest price in history, short-term holders (STH) increased their holdings, while long-term holders (LTH) decreased their holdings. This change in supply pattern reflects the growing speculative atmosphere in the market, and short-term traders are more sensitive to price fluctuations, which may lead to increased volatility in bitcoin prices. From the demand side, despite the continued increase in bitcoin holdings by institutional buyers and ETFs, actual spot demand continues to decline. If demand does not recover, bitcoin's continued rally may be difficult to maintain.
Overall, the price of Bitcoin on March 14, 2025 is currently showing a certain upward trend, but the overall trend is still facing many uncertainties. A variety of factors such as the macroeconomic environment, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, industry dynamics, and market supply and demand are all having an impact on the trend of Bitcoin.
buy:77K-79K
tp:83K-85k
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BTCUSDT SHORT (FIXED 1-ST target NOW) I fix the 1st take at $80,913 and move the stop order to breakeven .
1- the position itself is correct, but such manipulations with the news background and constant volume shift do not allow to correctly assess the moment of price reversal
2- Key markings before opening the position also took the format of price manipulation and should not have reached the value of $84,000 again in a normal market
In this regard, I decide to secure the position and take part of the profit in order to calmly continue trading while respecting the risks .
Main overview:
Further targets remain unchanged
BTCUSD SURELY DOWN Counter-Analysis (Disrupting the Bearish Outlook)
Bullish Continuation Instead of Rejection
If BTC breaks through the resistance zone near $87,792 instead of reversing, it could aim for $92,305 or higher.
A breakout with strong volume could lead to a new uptrend rather than a drop.
Strong Demand at Support Levels
The suggested bearish drop assumes that support levels will fail, but BTC could see significant buying pressure around $78,000–$74,000.
If buyers step in aggressively, the price may consolidate and push higher rather than continue downward.
Higher Low Formation Instead of Breakdown
The chart suggests BTC will drop below $70,000, but if it forms a higher low above $75,000, it could confirm an uptrend instead.
Trendline support or moving averages could prevent a deep correction.
Fundamental Factors Supporting BTC
Macroeconomic conditions, ETF inflows, or institutional demand could prevent a major sell-off.
If the Federal Reserve signals dovish policies, BTC could stay strong rather than droP
BTC/USDT "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 :
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🏁Buy entry above 89000
🏁Sell Entry below 78000
📌However, I recommended to place buy stop for bullish side and sell stop for bearish side.
Stop Loss 🛑:
🚩Thief SL placed at 84000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bullish Trade
🚩Thief SL placed at 92000 (swing Trade Basis) for Bearish Trade
Using the 4H period, the recent / swing low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
🏴☠️Bullish Robbers TP 110000 (or) Escape Before the Target
🏴☠️Bearish Robbers TP 62000 (or) Escape Before the Target
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, On Chain Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future Prediction:
BTC/USDT "Bitcoin vs Tether" Crypto market is currently experiencing a 🐼Bearish Trend in short term (Trend will expect to move on 🐂Bullish in future),., driven by several key factors.
⭐⚡🌟Fundamental Analysis⭐⚡🌟
Fundamental analysis for BTC involves assessing its intrinsic value based on adoption, utility, network security, and regulatory developments.
Adoption & Utility: By March 2025, Bitcoin adoption has likely continued to grow, with more institutions (e.g., ETFs, corporate treasuries) and countries (e.g., El Salvador-style experiments) integrating BTC. The Lightning Network and other scaling solutions may have matured, enhancing transaction speed and reducing costs, boosting its use case as a payment system.
Network Security: Bitcoin’s hash rate is likely at an all-time high, reflecting robust miner participation despite rising energy costs. Halving cycles (last one in 2024) reduce issuance, reinforcing scarcity at $84,000.
Regulatory Environment: Global regulation remains mixed—some nations embrace BTC (e.g., pro-crypto U.S. policies under a potentially favorable administration), while others (e.g., China) maintain bans. Regulatory clarity in major markets could be a tailwind.
Development Activity: Ongoing upgrades (e.g., Taproot enhancements) signal a healthy ecosystem.
Conclusion: Fundamentals are strong, with scarcity and adoption supporting a bullish outlook, though regulatory risks linger.
⭐⚡🌟Macro Economics⭐⚡🌟
Macro factors influence BTC as both a risk asset and a "digital gold" hedge.
Inflation & Monetary Policy: By 2025, inflation may have moderated from 2022 peaks, but persistent debt levels (e.g., U.S. debt-to-GDP >130%) and money printing could bolster BTC’s appeal as an inflation hedge. If central banks (e.g., Fed) maintain loose policies or cut rates, BTC benefits.
Interest Rates: Higher rates in 2025 (e.g., 3-4%) could pressure risk assets, but BTC’s decoupling from equities (observed in prior cycles) suggests resilience.
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, U.S.-China trade wars) and sanctions drive capital flight to decentralized assets like BTC.
Dollar Strength: A weakening USD (DXY potentially below 100) supports BTC’s rise as an alternative store of value.
Conclusion: Macro conditions lean bullish, with BTC thriving amid uncertainty and dollar erosion.
⭐⚡🌟COT Data (Commitment of Traders)⭐⚡🌟
COT reports from futures markets (e.g., CME Bitcoin futures) provide insight into institutional positioning.
Commercial Hedgers: Likely net short at $84,000, locking in profits after a rally from 2024 lows.
Large Speculators: Net long, reflecting bullish bets by hedge funds and institutions anticipating further upside post-halving.
Small Traders: Overly long and crowded, a contrarian signal of potential short-term exhaustion.
Open Interest: Rising OI at $84,000 suggests strong conviction, but a spike could signal an overleveraged market ripe for a pullback.
Conclusion: Mixed signals—bullish institutional bias with short-term caution due to retail crowding.
⭐⚡🌟On-Chain Analysis⭐⚡🌟
On-chain data reflects real-time network activity.
HODLing Behavior: High percentage of BTC unmoved for 1+ years (e.g., 65%+ of supply) indicates strong holder conviction at $84,000.
Exchange Reserves: Declining BTC on exchanges (e.g., 1.8M BTC vs. 2.5M in 2021) signals reduced selling pressure.
Transaction Volume: Stable or rising volume supports price legitimacy, though a drop could hint at waning momentum.
Realized Cap: Likely near all-time highs, reflecting long-term holders’ profits and new capital inflows.
MVRV Ratio: If above 3 (market value significantly exceeds realized value), BTC may be overbought short-term.
Conclusion: On-chain metrics are bullish, with accumulation outweighing distribution, though overbought risks emerge.
⭐⚡🌟Intermarket Analysis⭐⚡🌟
BTC’s correlation with other markets shapes its trajectory.
Equities (S&P 500): Correlation may have weakened by 2025, but a tech-led rally (e.g., AI stocks) could spill over to BTC.
Gold: Inverse correlation strengthens as BTC gains "digital gold" status—gold at $2,500/oz could coincide with BTC at $84,000.
USD: A declining DXY (e.g., 95) supports BTC’s rise.
Bonds: Rising yields (e.g., 10-year Treasury at 4%) pressure risk assets, but BTC’s safe-haven narrative mitigates this.
Altcoins: If ETH/BTC or other pairs are strong, altcoin outperformance could cap BTC dominance (e.g., 45% vs. 60% historically).
Conclusion: Intermarket trends favor BTC, with selective decoupling from risk assets.
⭐⚡🌟Market Sentiment Analysis (All Investor Types)⭐⚡🌟
Sentiment varies by cohort.
Retail Investors: Euphoric at $84,000 (e.g., X posts screaming "to the moon"), a contrarian sell signal.
Institutional Investors: Optimistic but cautious—ETF inflows (e.g., BlackRock’s BTC ETF) remain steady but not parabolic.
Whales: Accumulating dips (per on-chain data), signaling long-term confidence.
Miners: Selling pressure eases post-halving as higher prices offset lower rewards.
Social Media Trend: Search reveals polarized views—bullish memes dominate, but bearish "bubble" warnings grow louder.
Conclusion: Sentiment is overheated short-term (retail FOMO) but structurally bullish (institutional/whale support).
⭐⚡🌟Next Trend Move Prediction (Short, Medium, Long Term Targets)⭐⚡🌟
Based on technicals, cycles, and above factors:
Short-Term
Target: $92,000 (potential upside) or $78,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A moderate level of buying pressure could push BTC towards the $92,000 level. However, if selling pressure increases, BTC could drop to $78,000.
Medium-Term
Target: $110,000 (potential upside) or $60,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A sustained level of buying pressure could push BTC towards the $110,000 level. However, if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, BTC could drop to $60,000.
Long-Term
Target: $140,000 (potential upside) or $40,000 (potential downside)
Prediction: A strong level of adoption and favorable regulatory environment could push BTC towards the $140,000 level. However, if the global economic outlook worsens, BTC could drop to $40,000.
⭐⚡🌟Overall Summary Outlook⭐⚡🌟
Current State: BTC at $84,000 reflects a strong rally, likely post-2024 halving, supported by fundamentals and macro conditions.
Risks: Regulatory crackdowns, overleverage, or a macro shock (e.g., recession) could trigger sharp declines.
Opportunities: Institutional adoption, dollar weakness, and scarcity drive upside.
Final Call: Short-term Bearish (correction imminent), Medium/Long-term Bullish (uptrend intact).
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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BTCUSD buy signal. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
There are no failed investments, only failed operationsI. Trend analysis
🔹 overall trends:
Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a clear upward trend, peaking at nearly $115,000.
The price has recently fallen below several key support levels and entered a downward trend, with prices testing support in the 80,000-85,000 range.
The short-term trend remains weak, and the market may continue to seek lower support levels.
🔹 moving average system:
The short-term moving average (red, 10th) indicating that the market is still dominated by short-term bears.
The long-term moving average (blue, 60 days) has also started to turn downward, suggesting a weakening of the medium-term trend.
Conclusion: The market is still in a downward trend, and the moving average system shows no obvious signs of stabilization.
Structural analysis (K-line morphology)
📌 head and shoulders may have been completed:
From the high level formed by 93,000 to 115,000, there is a more obvious head and shoulder structure, which is currently falling below the neckline (82,000) and accelerating the decline.
If this pattern holds, the target decline level may test the 77,000-80,000 area.
📌 M head shape:
The previous two highs (around 100,000) formed an M-head and fell below key support, remaining weak in the short term.
📌 support area:
77000 (important support, if broken, the medium-term trend may accelerate to short)
72000~ 75000 (target in extreme cases)
📌 resistance areas:
89000~ 90000 (early neckline, has turned to strong resistance)
93000 (if the market rebounds, it needs to break through this level to reverse the trend)
Bitcoin Collapses $80K, What’s Next?Its price briefly stabilized around $86K over the weekend before heading south at the start of the business week. It dropped to around $80K, leaving millions in liquidations on a 24-hour basis. Later, bulls stepped in and pushed the valuation to nearly $84K. The resurgence, however, was short-lived and was followed by another free fall to as low as $79,500. As of this writing, BTC is trading around $79,000, representing a 5% drop on the day. Its market cap dropped below $1.6 trillion.
While many industry players are hopeful that this is another temporary pullback that can be replaced by a new bull run, others are not so optimistic. Next up is a re-estimation of $78K for BTCUSD, “if that fails, the next $76300, 75,500 in the crosshairs.” BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
BTCUSD MORE BUY BREAKING NEWS BTC ALL TIME HIGH 100K SOON1. Overly Aggressive Upside Projection
The projection to 97,450 implies a nearly 19% move up from the current level (81,693) without clear intermediate confirmations. This may overlook key lower resistance areas (such as the previous support at ~86,000–88,000) that could act as barriers before a move to 97,000. A step-by-step approach would be more reasonable.
2. Neglecting Bearish Continuation Risk
The analysis focuses heavily on bullish recovery and seems to ignore the ongoing bearish trend in the last several days. If BTC fails to hold the 80,133 "bullish support area", there could be continuation to the downside toward 78,000 or even 75,000 based on prior breakdown levels. No contingency is shown in case the support fails.
3. Volume Mismatch
Notice the recent volume spikes are seen on down candles, suggesting strong selling interest. There's no confirmation of buying volume accumulation to support such an aggressive reversal. Ignoring this discrepancy can lead to a false sense of bullish momentum.
4. Broad Market Context Missing
The chart does not seem to factor in broader macroeconomic or crypto-specific news. Given the U.S. economy's impact (as suggested by the USD sign and U.S. flag symbols), interest rate decisions, CPI data, or regulatory news can disrupt any bullish narrative.
5. Overconfidence in Single Zone
The "Support bullish area 80.133" is treated as a final reversal point. In reality, markets often fake out below such key zones before reversing (a "stop hunt"). A more realistic analysis would outline alternative supports below 80k and conservative resistance targets.
Alternative Bearish Scenario (Counter Analysis)
1. Break below 80,133 triggers continuation toward 78,000 and 75,000.
2. Any bounce toward 84,000 or 86,000 could be rejected if volume does not support it.
3. Resistance between 86,000 and 88,000 should be observed for weakness if reached.
4. Lower highs and lower lows forming suggest continuation down unless broken
#BTCUSD 1DAYBTCUSD (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is approaching a key support level, which has previously acted as a strong zone for price reversals. This level is crucial for determining the next directional move.
Forecast:
It is advisable to wait for the price to reach the identified support level. If the market shows signs of a bullish reversal, such as bullish candlestick patterns or strong buying pressure, a buy opportunity may be considered.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: Monitor the price action near the support level and consider buying if there is confirmation of a bounce.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed below the support zone to manage risk in case of a breakdown.
- Take Profit: Target the next resistance levels for potential upside gains.
Market Sentiment:
Market sentiment will be confirmed upon testing the support level. A strong bounce would indicate bullish interest, while a breakdown may signal further downside. Waiting for confirmation will help in making a more informed decision.
BTC/USD Ready for a BIG DROP? Next Target: Demand Zone!Bitcoin Showing Weakness – Smart Money Preparing a Move!
BTC/USD is struggling to hold key resistance levels, signaling potential distribution before a larger sell-off. Institutional players have grabbed liquidity, and a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside confirms bearish momentum.
BTC/USD Daily Forecast – Sell Setup from Supply Zone🔍 Market Breakdown Analysis:
Bitcoin has broken the key demand zone, indicating potential bearish momentum. As price pulls back, we will be looking for sell opportunities from the supply zone based on institutional order flow.
🎯 Trade Plan:
✅ Entry Zone: Supply Zone (Decision Point)
✅ Target 1: Key Structural Level (Decision Point Zone)
✅ Target 2: Extreme Order Block (Deeper Liquidity Grab)
✅ Confluence Factors: BOS (Break of Structure) + Liquidity Sweep
📊 Technical Outlook:
🔹 Market structure shift confirms a bearish bias.
🔹 Price may retest the supply zone before continuing downward.
🔹 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest a high-probability short setup.
⚠️ Risk Management:
Always use a proper stop-loss and follow your trading plan. Stay disciplined and patient for the best entry.
💬 Drop your thoughts below! Are you bearish or bullish on BTC/USD? 👇🔥
BTCUSDT: On the way back up to $110k!Dear traders,
Hope you are doing great, we have an excellent buying opportunity coming up or currently forming. Price has reversed with strong bullish volume, indicating a strong bullish impulse. A possible entry will be at breakthrough of inducement trend line.
If you agree with the idea, then please consider liking and commenting the idea which will encourage us to post more such ideas.
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