BTCUSD：Ascending Wedge Trend and StrategiesI. Trends and Patterns
From the 4 - hour chart, BTCUSD has shown complex volatility characteristics recently:
1.Consolidation phase: The price oscillated within a narrow range in the early stage, forming a rectangular consolidation pattern. The forces of bulls and bears were relatively balanced, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market.
2.Breakout and current pattern: After breaking through the consolidation range, the price moved upward, indicating that the bulls were dominant in the short term. However, it has now entered an ascending wedge pattern - which is a common reversal signal in technical analysis.
- Pattern characteristics: Although the price has been making short - term new highs, the upward slope has gradually flattened, suggesting that the bullish momentum is fading and the bearish momentum is gradually accumulating. Be vigilant against the risk of trend reversal.
II. Key Support and Resistance Levels
S1 : $93,000. It is near the lower trend line of the ascending wedge and also a previous pullback low. If the price drops, this could form a strong support. If it is broken, it may open up a downward space, and we need to be vigilant against trend reversal.
S2 : $91,500. It is the upper edge of the previous consolidation range. If the price drops significantly, this may form a secondary support to slow down the decline.
R1 : $96,000. It is near the upper trend line of the ascending wedge. The price has tested it several times without a valid breakthrough, indicating strong selling pressure here and a significant short - term suppression effect.
R2 : $98,000. It is a higher - level resistance target. If the price breaks through $96,000 strongly and holds above it, it may further rise to this level.
III. Trading Strategy Recommendations
1.Bullish strategy:
- Entry conditions: The price finds support near $93,000 (such as the appearance of bullish candlestick patterns like hammer candlesticks), and does not break below this level.
- Target price: $96,000 (testing the upper wedge), and if broken, look towards $97,500.
- Stop - loss setting: Break below $92,500 (below the lower edge of the support level).
2.Bearish strategy:
- Entry conditions: The price effectively breaks below the support level of $93,000 (such as closing below it for two consecutive candlesticks), or encounters resistance and falls back near $96,000 (the appearance of bearish patterns like shooting star candlesticks).
- Target price: $91,500 (the upper edge of the previous consolidation), and if it further drops, it can look towards $86,000.
- Stop - loss setting: Break above $96,500 (above the upper wedge).
3.Risk warnings:
- The reversal signal of the ascending wedge needs to be verified with trading volume (for example, if there is a significant increase in volume during the breakout, the signal is more reliable).
- Pay close attention to fundamental factors such as the expected Fed policy and regulatory dynamics of cryptocurrencies. Be vigilant against breakout movements triggered by unexpected news.
IV. Conclusion
Currently, BTCUSD is in a critical observation period of the ascending wedge. Technical analysis shows that the bullish momentum is waning, and it faces a directional choice in the short term. Aggressive traders can lightly test the waters near support/resistance levels, while conservative traders are advised to wait for clear breakout signals (such as a volume - based breakout of the upper wedge or an effective breakdown of the lower wedge) before entering the market. At the same time, strictly control positions and stop - losses to avoid volatility risks before the pattern is confirmed.
