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BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP @ 39'552 FILLED !4 HOURS (H4) The double top target @ 39'552 has been filled with an intraday low @ 39'450, roughy also filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 mentioned in my previous analysis. No bullish divergences detected so far ! Lagging line below the clouds too. RSI below 50, @ 34.09 Nevertheless, after this nice decline, it is likely, on short term to see and this is what currently is happening, some short term corrective recovery which is expected to be pretty limited in this broad bearish strategic structure. Indeed, looking ahead, the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'338 in this H4 time frame, is the first resistance level to look at on a H4 closing basis as a sustainable move above this level would open the door for higher levels towards R2 @ 41'487 ahead the pivot level on H4 @ 42'117. A successful recovery above 42'117 (H4 closing basis) would put the focus (once again...) to the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (42750-43'500) interesting to note that 42'747 is the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside move starting @ 44'785 towards 39'450. DOWNSIDE : A successful breakout of the 39'400, as already mentioned in my previous analysis would directly put the focus on the next support level, which is 37'877 (very fragile zone between 39'400 and 37'877-mirror effect of the long white candle seen during the trading session of February 4th, and ahead of 37'510 (78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension) DAILY (D1) T he DAILY CLOUDS, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt and for now the levels to watch on this daily picture are, ONCE AGAIN THE CLOUDS, respectively and currently : UPSIDE : 42'525 DOWNSIDE : 39'500 A BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVEL ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS WILL CONFIRM THE DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING DAILY TRADING SESSIONS !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely, intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will validate or invalidate scenarios implications previously explained. Have a nice Saturday and take care Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-D1/H4-PERSISTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE!Yesterday's recovery price action, triggered on a closing basis, a "SHOOTING STAR". Indeed, after a failure to recover above the bottom of the weekly clouds and above the daily Tenkan-Sen, the BTC closed @ 36'829. Such kind of price action is, once again confirming this ongoing persisting downward pressure which is clearly showing a mode of SELL ON RALLY and not yet a buy on dips, having in mind, of course, a STRATEGIC VIEW. Nevertheless, it is quite clear that in this strategic and persisting downtrend price action there are plenty of tactical countertrend trading opportunities which should be monitored accordingly in applying a strict Risk Reward approach !!! DAILY (D1) Yesterday's shooting star (similar scenario seen in Dec 24th and 27th) is weighing on the BTC which is likely to go lower in this daily time frame; first level to watch is @ 35000 ahead of former low @ 32'950 Strategic target remains @ 30'000 ahead of the VERY, VERY, VERY IMPORTANT SUPPORT LEVEL @ 28'600 (former low of June 2021 and also double top trigger level !!!) 4 HOURS (H4) Once again the clouds worked perfectly well in rejecting the upside breakout attempt (38'946) ! Since this rejection, the Bitcoin went down towards a low of 35'774, (50% Fib Ret filled @ 35'947) a couple of hours ago and is currently trying to recover, caught, actually between the Kijun-Sen (35' 948) and the Mid Bollinger Band (36'398). If the Mid Bollinger Band is broken on H4 closing basis, the next resistance level to watch is the Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line @ 37'240 ahead of the most important area to break, which is once again the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (37'650-38910); and last but not least the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently @ around 40'300. 1 HOUR (H1) Hourly clouds, for the time being hold and a downside breakout of the bottom of hourly clouds (@ 35'500) would open the door for lower levels (35'240 61.8% Fib ret ahead of 34'233 78.6% Fib ret extension). CONCLUSION . Monitor closely price action on the hourly chart and watch the clouds which will show you the direction :-) Have a nice trading day Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTCUSD - H1/H4 - AT A CRITICAL LEVEL !Good morning to all of you :-) Today we are going to look at two main intraday time frames which are Hourly (H1 ) and 4 hours (H4) Indeed, in my last and previous analysis, I highlighted a potential double bottom formation in progress on H1 with its trigger level @ 47'450 which has been filled and broken with an intraday high, so far @ 47'750. HOURLY (H1) The lack of follow through and both ongoing H1 downtrend line resistance and also the former support trend line, clearly stopped and rejected the ongoing upside move; the lagging line, also, failed to upside breakout the clouds and as a result, the BTCUSD is currently traded around this important 47'450-47'500 area which is also, by the way the top of the H1 clouds resistance area. The RSI upside move has also been broken by the failure to hold above its uptrend line support, still above 50 @ 56.37 Watch the former resistance cluster which becomes now the FIRST SUPPORT area to look at (@47'300 -47'000) A failure to hold above that area would put directly the focus to the H1 clouds bottom zone around 46'300 ahead of former lows "double bottom" @ 45'478 On the upside a breakout of both the ongoing downtrend line resistaance first ahead of a confirmation of an breakout of the former support trend line would neutralise the ongoing dowNside move in that hourly time frame. 4 HOURS (H4) Still under the clouds resistance area which once more, so far, did perfectly its job, in rejecting an new upside breakout attempts. In addition, the price action triggered by a long white candle has been quickly aborted by the next black candle in making a reversal pattern (which should be confirmed by the ongoing H4 candle on a closing basis in the next hours !) Moreover, the ongoing uptrend support line (in green), is currently on its way to be tested with, slighlty below an important former resistance level which became now a new support level @ 46'795 A failure to stay and hold above this point would put the focus on lower levels, above mentioned in H1 On the upside, watch the clouds ahead of the ongoing downtrend line resistance as only a clear recovery and breakout above those points would force to a view reassessment of my expected ongoing bearish scenario. Today's daily and weekly closing levels would give more clues for the upcoming week. Daily and weekly closing level above 48'800 would be the first warning signal of potential trend reversal !!! Have a nice Sunday. Ironman8848 6 Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTCUSD - D1 - KEY PIVOT LEVEL @ 57'500DAILY PICTURE : 57'500 which is the double top trigger level should still be seen as a KEY PIVOT LEVE L for further development. In addition, slightly below this level we can see the Tenkan-Sen or Conversion line, currently 57'368. As already mentioned, a daily closing below both levels mentioned would add further selling pressure and put the focus to lower levels towards the daily clouds bottom, currently around 53'300, which also coincides with the former uptrend support line (in green !) Price action over the coming hours should be monitor very closely and as already mentioned several times, shorter time frames will give you early signal (s) such bullish divergence which would trigger short term reversal, in a first time, in a corrective move and if confirmed in longer time frames may become a strategic trend reversal... RSI indicator still below 50 ! Globally in this time frame and in order to neutralise the ongoing downside move, the BTCUSD should recover, firstly above the daily clouds which should be confirmed by an upside breakout of the ongoing downtrend line resistance (in red) INTRADAY PICTURE : 4 HOURS In an ongoing downtrend channel, currently in its middle level, caugh between the Kijun-Sen on the upside and the Tenkan-Sen & Mid Bollinger Band on the downside. Watch breakout of one of those points. 1 HOUR : Upside breakout attempt failed; for the time being it hold above the Kijun-Sen and the MBB. On the upside, watch the top of the clouds and the KS as levels to break while on the downside a failure to hold above the H1 clouds bottom would put the focus for lower level towards former low around 56'000 first and then lower. Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. Ironman8848
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC - 36675 and 56200 are the key levels to watchI have 3 scenarios that im watching for here, 1 bullish and 2 bearish (these two are basically the same, just different paths) The bullish scenario: This is the green count which would be minor wave 4 to wave 5, of intermediate wave 1 (not shown) of primary wave 5 (in orange) This count assumes that from April 14 to June 22 was a 3 wave ABC move down to complete primary wave 4 (orange) around $28700, and now we have begun primary wave 5 which would take us to at least 90k as we finish off this bull run. On the short term, this could would take us anywhere from 45-50k *IF* we can hold $36675. This is a a crucial level, as it is the minor wave 1 high. Below this we invalidate this count (there is a chance this would still be valid if we consider this is a leading diagonal to begin intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5, but for simplicity im going to assume bearish below this level) IF we hold above 36675, then im expecting top side targets of 45-50k to complete the minor green count and give us intermediate wave 1 of primary wave 5. The bearish scenario: This is the white WXY and the yellow 5 wave impulsive structure. Both lead us lower, anywhere from 21.5k-24k. If we are heading further down, we will need to see further price action to settle our probability cloud and determine exactly what path this move will take. If this is a complex correction, as the white WXY count shows, it would still lead to a short term bounce as we would currently be in the X wave which could top out anywhere between $47850 and $56000 before turning to the downside. I wouldn't be bearish on BTC unless and until we have a clear rejection to establish a local top. The second bearish scenario would be a prolonged impulsive wave shown in yellow. Im not sure how to really read this, but the fib levels have been spot on, so i've put this count here just to see what happens...this could be the first leg of a 5-3-5 zigzag, which could see us hit 19-21 k before we bounce from the 2017 high. If we cross down that previous high, then i'll start believing the "crypto is a scam, BTC to zero" folks, but i think there's a very good chance we see retail and institutions offer strong support below 20k. This could eventually play out as a downtrend to 19k, followed by a strong bounce and then a rejection under 60k to fall back down back to 19k or lower.....but that's too far out to really get a clear picture on right now. All i can say at this moment is that the down trend since April 14 top has followed a 5 wave EW structure pretty accurately so far but i could always be reading it wrong. TL;DR I know this is a big wall of conjecture so basically this is what im looking for: If BTC < 36675, get out and wait for resolution at or below 28k. if BTC > 36675, 45k-50k are my targets If BTC > 56200, the bearish count is likely out the window and we are on our way to new ATH....buy all you can and HODL till 90k.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ir-rizzle