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a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going nowhere except for the dax and we need a bigger move with follow through for a new direction. dax Quote from yesterday: short term: same as last days - btfd and probably more daily new highs. it does not matter that it’s overbought and a pullback is due. could continue way more up We got same as last days. Higher high and close at the highs. Nothing is stopping this. Every pullback is bought and buying the 1h 20ema is a profitable strategy for 2 straight weeks. I honestly think we are a couple of days away from funds closing because they kept shorting this. Please forgive my lack of enthusiasm to go deeper into price action for this index. It’s beyond climactic and i think any bigger profit taking could trigger an avalanche of stops because no one want’s to be left holding the bag. Still, for now, it’s only going up and could continue longer than anyone would think. Side note: I dare you to find another example for the Dax where it gained more points on declining GDP figures. Disclaimer: I do think financial markets are nothing but the biggest casino in the world, short term. Long term obviously, fundamentals win. But the extend of this move into this economic outlook and reported figures left and right is beyond anything and i already accounted for a big blow off top and a climactic move on top but this exceeds it by far. bull case: btfd. bear case: none. short term: up and this only changes once we stop making higher highs and start making lower lows again medium-long term: bulls closed the month at the highs and my medium-long term targets were way off and i was early in December to call this top. Maybe it tops at 18000, maybe not. trade of the day: same as last 2 weeks, buy everything around the 1h 20ema
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
Some TA and Fundamentals to keep in mind for DIP buyers Hello all. Today we'll be looking at some of the things i am concerned about trading the current bitcoin price action. I have written most of my thoughts in the charts. Some other things you should keep in mind are - Bitcoin dominance has acted very suspicious since the dump to 20k its not giving me confidence. Ether dominance has gone up significantly and has gained significant market share. The flippening could happen - so thats a thing y'all should keep in mind. Short term price action on bitcoin is absolutely brutal - There are no easy levels to trade here other than 18k and 24k. It's a big range choppy price action , and i think macro is playing bit of a role in the current btc dump. Over all if you are bitcoin believer know how to manage your risk - We all know how brutal bitcoin dumps can be. All the best guys - my trade idea on how to DCA for this is written in chart. The bitcoin halving is 625 days away! That's a long time and a lot of stuff can happen during this time!
by one-two
2
TSLAFinally jumping in, took the first nibble at 155ish. Lowest PE in forever, more recession fears, and hype... well lack there of around Elon and his twitter takeover (noise). China slowing and continued lockdowns are bad, but everyone and every industry over there is also in the same boat. Buying again at around 130, 90ish would be max pain....probably but it's always darkest before pitch black, or so I've heard. As seen these past few months the biggest risk in this stock is Elon going away, for a while or forever.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Thisguy22
1
BE READY FOR CHRISTMAS RALLY! BUY THE DIP!!!!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow. Welcome to this Total M.cap update. Total M.cap looks good here. Breaks out from the descending channel. Expecting a retest from here and that retest will be a good buying opportunity. I'm expecting a good rally in the crypto market before Christmas. Most people are still expecting new lows of BTC but IMO first we might see a short-term rally in the market from here. Expecting BTC to go $19k-$20k from here. Invalidation:- Any 4hr candle close below $770B What do you think about this? Do you also think that we might see a good bullish rally in the month of December or do you think this is just a trap? Share your views in the comment section. Thank You!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CoreCrypto1
13
NASDAQ - Ripping in Two DirectionsThis coming week is going to be an exciting week for both bulls and bears. There's going to be a lot of volatility, and it won't be particularly easy to trade. It's a trap designed to make you both greedy and fearful at the same time, so I hope you can do well amid the "chaos," and not lose too much money. Here's key factors to consider: 1. Stocks have been trading on a steep ramp up since the middle of June. No pullback is dangerous. 2. On Wednesday morning, CPI numbers will be released. Remember, the Federal Reserve, for all the lack of integrity it constantly demonstrates, claims to care about inflation. U.S. inflation posted a nine handle back to back in the prior two months. The Fed says its target is a two handle. On this basis, I expect indexes to pop on open and dump until at least Wednesday morning as the media howls about "stocks dump on inflation fears." 3. There is no FOMC this month, so there's not supposed to be another rate hike until September. There's not supposed to be any catalysts in the making that can stop the mania. U.S. stocks go up in a straight line so that you're all drawn into it, chasing getting rich quick, and are distracted from what is important in life and what is really going on in the world, which is cultivating yourselves and getting back to the traditional path, because our society has a lot of troubles with food, energy, and climate lying ahead of it. 4. After the machine is done making you scared, stocks will rip in the other direction. This is all to create the "sell low, buyback higher" retail paradigm, which is especially miserable and expensive if you're trading in-the-money/at-the-money options on Robinhood based on some signal group or YouTube personality telling you what to do. 5. When the machine is done it's going to rip to big numbers, and do it rather fast and impressively. Once you get into the upper box, be careful. Get out of the market for a few months and be extremely careful.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
The Market Will Never Be Easy. And Especially Now.I had some fun with the chart above. It shows the Nasdaq-100 over the last 24 hours. Yesterday it was spiking, today it was dumping. The amount of money that has exchanged hands in this short trading period is probably hard to comprehend. Hundreds of millions of shares have traded in this short timeframe and even more in total dollar volume. Billions of dollars have traded hands. And that's the point of this post: there is no making sense of a market that is acting the way it currently is. Well to be fair, there is NEVER a moment where anyone can make sense of the market. There are just times when it's pretty much impossible compared to times when you can actually try to discern even the slightest trend or understanding. I don't want to sound too pessimistic, because there is some good news in moments like this: there will be opportunity. All around the market, even crypto included, there are symbols down 50% and more over the last 12 months. Some are down 50% or more in just the last 6 months. When I look at this, I see a lot of potential for a dip that I previously thought I would never get in certain symbols. Before I get to the 5 things I am thinking about, let me first say, there is no rush. Seriously, take your time. Don't just buy to buy or sell to sell. Now more than ever, time is on your side to plan out the perfect trade. Let the billions of dollars exchange hands, let them pay millions in transaction fees, let them wash trade the day away. So here are 5 things that I am thinking about in this market: 1. There is no rush. No rush whatsover to do anything. Just look at the chart above. Do you want to rush into that? Take your time, set an alert, and wait for that perfect price point. 2. The amount of research that has to go into finding the perfect symbol in this environment is far and above the bull market times. This is where the experts come out to play. When everyone is panicking, worrying, day trading by the minute in the volatility, the pros come of out. 3. Double and triple check everything. Dive deep into earnings reports and company filings. Pay really close attention to the trading volume - how much liquidity is there, how much is noise, how wide is the range of trading prices. All of these things need to be used to step back, and really see environment that you may be trading into. 4. Look at what the founder, managers, and largest holders are doing. Are they themselves buying more? If it's a crypto project, what are the project leaders doing? In times like this you can learn a lot about how well positioned a symbol is based on what the most important people are thinking or doing. Often times, especially in this social media age, they are tweeting or publishing right there! Go check out their thoughts and make sure you are aligned with them. 5. Think about the ultra long-term. Is the symbol you're looking at actually positioned to succeed for 5 or 10 years? Even if you're swing trading, this should be on your mind. This is your margin of safety. If you don't think it can be here in 5 or 10 years, why even risk money on it for 30 minutes? Even 5 minutes? My takeaway here is that when scanning or creating a list of symbols, be sure to do a quality check. Remove the ones you are uncertain of. Anyways, those are my thoughts and hopefully you enjoyed them. Good luck out there!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by scheplick
12
SPY HUGE FALLING WEDGE UPDATE *WARNING**WARNING: LOTS OF READING* tldr; LONG TERM: This is bullish. DO NOT mistake me for thinking that I am about to say below is saying we will crash all the way down to SPY 200. Now... onto the post below... From my previous update: I was looking for a break of the falling wedge around the 448 level, but that obviously failed. I was also looking for a bigger bounce from the EOM/BOM flows (yesterday and today) into the higher end range of this falling wedge. Neither of those happened. Clarification: When I mention EOM/BOM flows, I do NOT mean that markets will rocket. It's not as simple as that. Rather, it is to say that the markets are propped up from too significant of a decline. This applies to pretty much every month of the year where the cycle repeats ON AVERAGE: -EOM (End of Month) and BOM (Beginning of month) flows support the market until Friday preceding OPEX week(market can move higher if there are two consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma during this period). Most recently in terms of market dynamics: the 20SMA is where market battles between bulls and bears happen the most. They try to claim the 20sma for their side. *Any 2 consecutive closes at 1 STD above the 20sma for the bulls during window of supportive strength can lead to even higher market prices. *Any 2 consecutive closes below the 20sma (note nothing to do with STD for the downside) during window of supportive weakness can lead to lower market prices. -VIXperation Wednesday (usually is when stage 1 of the unwinding of supportive flows begin). Depending on price action, this can have opposite effects. Usually, if this month is heavily hedged (via VIX calls, SPY puts) and price action isn't pushed to the downside, then those contracts will expire worthless and MM delta neutral hedges will unwind, causing price to push to the upside because of short covering. If price action is already pushing toward the downside, price action can actually snowball more to the downside. -OPEX Friday (stage 2 of unwinding of supportive flows). Similar to the above. Depends on price action and where contracts are placed. -Week after OPEX Friday leading to EOM (stage 3 and the most critical). Supportive flows are not as present, meaning decline of price action is very much possible in this time period. Two consecutive daily closes below the 20SMA will lead to further decline. Let's summarize end of February price action: February VIXpiry Wednesday 02/16/22: Hedges unwound and we squeezed significantly to the upside. *Short covering rally/squeeze February OPEX Friday 02/18/22: Unwinding of current contracts and hedges, led to significant decline to the downside. February week after OPEX Tuesday 02/22/22- Thursday 02/24/22: SIGNIFICANT market decline into a sharp reversal on Thursday, leading to Friday and eventually this week EOM/BOM. Yesterday and today, the supportive flows did NOT move us significantly higher. We haven't even reached the 20sma. Again, this period of supportive flows is where bulls have the opportunity to take control over the 20sma. They are failing to do so at the moment. This is ominous for the bulls. This supportive period ends effectively on 03/11-03/14 (start of opex week), so we have a lot of work to do. Not to mention that in addition, we have FUTURES roll date on 03/10 (not going to get into that...), FOMC speakers, Biden SOTU, etc... things are not looking hot. *Keep in mind that the big guys can front run the flows any which way, so the market structure above is NOT all-exhaustive.* --------------------------------------------------------------- What is my plan? If you didn't know already.... I'm majorly bearish into March OPEX and even beyond. The reason I put downside targets of SPY 404 --> 398 , etc., is because I think that ultimately, we will trade there within the next couple months. I am primarily cash while playing minor plays to the downside upon ANY rally to the upside. No rally thus far since January has been sustained. Every significant rally has been faded. Primary position: 03/25/22 SPY 400p Intra-day plays: Hedge with weekly calls to the upside to endure any squeezes to the upside. Take profit and sell at resistances. ---------------------------------------------------------------- You have to function with the mindset that Mr. Market will do whatever it takes to F*ck the most amount of retail investors possible. That is why you will have extremely volatile swings to both the upside and the downside, while ultimately maintaining a downtrend. Retail investors from 2020-2021 have been trained by the FED (due to unlimited liquidity) to just BTFD. You can NOT do that anymore. Please listen. You have to be using VERY little leverage here because price can go against you in an instant. You should be PRIMARILY cash. You can play the downside, but put very little money to do so. Trust me, you don't need to put a lot of money in to reap a lot of rewards to playing the downside. Can SPY Reach and even Break 380's? Absolutely. Will it then lead to a cascade waterfall downwards to SPY 200? No. I think what may happen is that we have a capitulation candle, where all retail long call BTFD bros get slaughtered. I can definitely see a HUGE wick below the support line drawn, and then we may have a reversal back above into the falling wedge pattern. If the support line breaks, I foresee retail being forced to capitulate and buy puts at the lows (as retail always does.... which is to buy high and sell low). Once retail has bought puts at the lows, market will reverse upwards. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Be nimble. Watch the 20sma. Watch the FED course. Everything is dependent on the FED. Hawkish behavior will lead to the inevitable decline. Do NOT be a perma bull or a perma bear. Respect the price action and ride it. Best of luck traders. Live updates on Twitter. If you have any questions, ask away :) @seneslulz
AMEX:SPY
by SenesTrades
6
TIME TO BUY ATOM CLOSING IN ON THE .886 With BTCs Correction still not complete I expect to see more ALT Blood . We can see here with ATOM on the HTF we are trading inside the symmetrical triangle and we have previously hit the .786 fib maybe 5 times and its done a great job for support . This time round I would like to see it break and the PA to come outside of the triangle down to the .886 FIB and then bounce back inside the range . Set alerts for the downside and be sure to check BTC chart before jumping into any ALTS but in my opinion I think this setup is the basis for a good plan . Ensure to know your Invalidation and know where you are wrong Like and follow for regular Setups
Long
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
2 Weeks until Quad WitchingLots of volatility possible in between now and Quad Witching in 2 weeks. Thu Dec9 30-y Auction Fri Dec 10 CPI Wed Dec 15 FOMC Fri Dec 17 Quad Witching The first 3 I don't think are going to cause much volatility, but it all depends on the result of each. The Quad Witching may be a bit more predictable. During the past 2 years, the QE+Stimulus driven markets have changed how derivatives effect market price. A side-effect makes market indexes somewhat more predictable, particularly around OPEX (options expiry). Most notable is the quad witching expiry days. The third Friday of March, June, September, December It's when stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. I plotted the last 4 Quads with comments so you can see the extent of sell offs. -1.18% to -1.81%. Sept 17 -1.39% - Sell off started after a rejecting 20D MA June 18 - 1.81% - Sell off started 3am and continued to close. 20D MA to 50D MA Mar 19 - 1.24% - Volatility Overnight, 9am sell off, 10am - 3pm rally, Sell off into close. Breaking and ending on 20D MA Dec 18 - 1.20% - Overnight melt up, 9am sell off until 3pm. + %1.16 rally into close. Buy The Dip Trend. The Market forgets quickly. Overnight it seems sometimes. Pepperidge Farms Remembers. We just reentered bottom of 2yr trading channel MSM caught wind of the OPEX buy the dip trend. VIX Structure To help with entry of my puts / UVXY I refer to the VIX structure a week or 2 in advance. Not Financial Advice. A 007 Trading Journal.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SPYvsGME