BTI
British American Tobacco Shifts its Business Away from CigaretteKey Takeaway
British American Tobacco writes down $31.5 billion as it shifts its business away from cigarettes.
Shares of British American Tobacco tumbled Wednesday after the owner of Camel and American Spirit cigarettes took an impairment charge of about $31.5 billion, mainly related to its struggling U.S. cigarette brands with the number of people who smoke in steep decline.
In a financial update, London-based British American Tobacco said it is in the process of transforming its business from traditional, combustible products to “smoke-free” ones. Its goal is to get half its revenue from non-combustibles by 2035. Combustibles currently account for about 83% of its sales, according to the data firm FactSet.
In 2017, British American Tobacco bought Winston-Salem, North Carolina-based Reynolds American Inc. for about $49 billion in cash and stock.
Earlier this year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released a survey that showed U.S. cigarette smoking in another all-time low, with 1 in 9 adults saying they were current smokers. In the mid-1960s, 42% of U.S. adults were smokers.
Technical Analysis
British American Tobacco Industries ( NYSE:BTI ) 5th Day Moving Average (MA) is 30.71, trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
BTI stock has a MACD indicator of 0.4, which suggests a buy signal. BTI stock has an RSI of 58, which suggests that the stock is overbought.
Based on these indicators, a possible entry point for BTI stock is when the MACD crosses above the signal line and the RSI is below 70, indicating a bullish momentum and a reasonable price. A possible exit point is when the MACD crosses below the signal line and the RSI is above 70, indicating a bearish momentum and an overbought price.
BTI at my buy value areaI have calculated a buy value at roughly $36 (fair value based on earnings forecast minus 20% margin of security).
Now we are at this price.
Chart is in the main volume cluster but is falling like the entire sector (PM and MO have the same beta - volatility - at the moment)
BTI is plus affecting now by the fear of american investors due to the falling of pound sterlin and voices are telling about a possible cut in USD dividend.
Maybe usd dividend could return from 7% to the 5% which is the tobacco sector's dividend avarage. MO offers higher dividend at the moment but its economics and fair value are not in line with my strategies.
Looking the history, escluding the 80s, BTI did not performe bad during the falling of pound sterlin, and never a cut of its dividend in a big shot.
Tobacco sector is my preferred in line with the actual economic cycle, drop is good for buying lower, cash flows are strong and people will continue to smoke even during the recession.
BTI at an area of valueJSE:BTI setting for a long opportunity, note resistance on a higher time frame.
NYSE:BTI has been playing around this level for a while now, close above R714 trigger a long position. However, a clear bullish setup is above R730, where it'll have cleared the R720-ish resistance level that's on the weekly time frame.
R714 is like a low cheat entry, in anticipation to a breakout above R730. It can fail, manage risk accordingly.
BTI: more downside potential?A bearish trend is supported by a price action below 55300.
Downside price momentum supports the bearish trend.
Remains below its 200-day simple moving average.
MACD crossover supports a change in trend direction to bearish.
RSI leaves enough room for further downside price potential.
Possible Swing trade for $BTI if it hits $35$35 seems to be a strong support level for British American Tobacco, will be looking to sell some puts or go into a long position if it falls to $35 and below. Also earnings at approximately $4 per share will provide great support as it will be trading at p/e of 8.75 which is extremely cheap for a global consumer defensive business growing at 2-3% EPS. Additionally as its a UK based stock listed as an ADR in the United states, there would not be the usual 30% US withholding taxes on BTI's dividends which improves its overall total return profile.
Total expected return (1 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 66% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 79% total annualized return
Total expected return (5 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 11% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 22% annualized CAGR return for next 5 years
British American Tobacco $BTI Bullish Butterfly BTI has went into oversold conditions and created a potential Bullish Butterfly. Keep in mind it still has room to go lower to the 1.618 fib. But anywhere between the 1.272 and 1.618 is a good potential reversal area. Also right now as it stands the daily candle is a bullish hammer so looks good for now.
1st Target - $37.12
2nd Target - 37.98
3rd Target - $38.85
Good luck traders.
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThis stock has just broken out of a descending channel (bullish flag pattern), and is rallying towards the weekly descending trendline. Therefore, we should see much upside towards the 58 000-60 000 are. The technicals of this trade are as follows:
STOP LOSS: 52 000
TARGET: 60 000
BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO (BTI) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORT The share price for British American Tobacco (BTI) has been moving in a descending channel on the daily timframe, as evidenced by lower highs and lower lows. The price has just broke out of a corrective ascending channel (counter trend) on the 4-hour timeframe and came back to retest the previous-support-turned-resistance at the price level of 57730. I expect prices to trickle down further, if they do not create higher highs and higher lows, and the possible targets are:
Target 1: 50 720
Target 2: 43 856