USDJPY SHORTThe USDJPY currency pair is likely to experience a significant correction , moving downward from its current position at 132.795 (even though JPY is weak). I anticipates that the price will find support at key technical levels, on the 50EMA, 200EMA, and 800EMA respectively. The 800EMA is expected to represent a deep correction, while the 50EMA and 200EMA are considered to be decent levels at which the price could stabilize before potentially reversing to the upside. In the short term, I have set 132.115 as my target, with a medium-term target of 130.50.
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US30 BearishThe technical analysis of US30 reveals that the index is currently encountering resistance at the level of 34195. The 200EMA initially acted as support for the price confirmed by a quick rejection to the upside.
Furthermore, the TDI also displays an overbought position, further strengthening the bearish sentiment in the market. A confirmation of this rejection at the resistance zone can be seen through the presence of either divergence or a sharkfin pattern on the TDI.
Based on this analysis, it is expected that the US30 will experience a decline from its current resistance zone at 34195 to the short-term target of 34000 and the medium-term target of 33900.
USDCHF: SMALL DROP, BIG RALLY The USDCHF currency pair has been under observation and analysis in recent times, and based on the current market conditions, it is likely to be in a corrective phase.
After the correction, it is expected that the USDCHF currency pair will enter into an impulsive phase. I expect the currency pair to drop to the 0.92000 - 0.91500 price zone. At this level, it is likely that the 200 EMA will provide support. It is recommended that traders monitor the H1 200 EMA, which is a more significant long-term moving average.
To confirm a potential upside move, I'll look for price rejection on the 200 EMA, which can be indicated by a shark fin pattern or divergence on the TDI indicator. If a shark fin pattern is present, it can provide a bullish signal and increase the likelihood of a price reversal to the upside.
Based on this analysis, my medium-term target is 0.945000, and the long-term target is 0.9700.
USDJPY: BULLISH The USDJPY currency pair has recently experienced a significant price movement, breaking through key liquidity zones of 131.575 and 131.11, which were previously defined on the 12th and 24th of January respectively. This price reaction can be attributed to various fundamental factors that were reported in the previous week.
The overall trend of the dollar index, which measures the performance of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies, has been showing signs of strength. This, in turn, has had a positive impact on the USDJPY currency pair.
To determine the next steps in this market movement, it is essential to monitor the final price fixation above the previously broken level. In my analysis, I anticipate the continuation of an upward trend for USDJPY, with short and medium-term targets set at the resistance/liquidity levels of 134.37 and 137.29. In the meantime, I'll wait for a correction to a suitable area, then I buy. The Long-term target is set at 140.00. These levels have been determined based on an in-depth market analysis and are subject to change as market conditions evolve.
USDCAD appears bullishThe USDCAD market has exhibited bullish order flow starting from January 30th at a price level of 1.32998, reaching a peak of 1.34709 on January 31st. However, a pullback was observed subsequent to the upward move, as price retraced to the H4 and M15 demand zones. The potential for a rally to the upside exists if these double demand zones hold. It should be noted that as the end of January approaches, there is also a possibility of price moving away from these zones in pursuit of raiding liquidity below in the form of an irregular W pattern.
From a market maker perspective, the 13EMA has demonstrated a clear divergence from both the 50EMA and the 200EMA, suggesting the potential for the recent pullback to reach a point of exhaustion. To mitigate risk and maximize potential returns, it is recommended to carefully observe the market for indications of price rejection of these demand zones, or for market makers to "crab" liquidity below these levels, prior to entering a long position.
Considering the present wide spread during this trading session, it may be prudent to wait for further price consolidation until the London session open before making a decision. In this scenario, a short-term target of 1.3350 (with 200EMA acting as possible resistance), and a medium-term target of 1.34000 have been identified as potential long trade targets.
GOLD: Bullish outlookThe XAUUSD currency pair, representing the exchange rate between gold and the US dollar, is currently facing rejection at the 1900 and 1896 support zone. This follows a significant drop of over 200 pips attributed to robust selling activity from the 200EMA, which is functioning as dynamic resistance. The current scenario suggests an oversold condition of the pair.
My analysis predicts that the pair will reach the levels of 1908 and 1913 in the near term, with 1908 serving as the short-term target and 1913 as the medium-term target. In the event of a deeper correction, I have set 1918 as the extended medium-term target.
GBPUSD: BEARISH OUTLOOKThe psychological support and resistance levels for GBPUSD for the current week have been established at 1.24044 - 1.23774. The technical analysis of the 4-hour and daily time frames indicate a bearish trend, with the daily time frame currently situated within a contraction zone. Based on the 4-hour trend and weekly PSR, it is expected that the bearish sentiment for GBPUSD will persist. This bearish trend may be further strengthened if the daily time frame exits the contraction zone with bearish momentum.
From a market maker's perspective, two key scenarios to monitor are:
1) price rejection at the 50 exponential moving average (EMA) with TDI divergence and
2) price rejection at the 200 exponential moving average (EMA) with a shark fin pattern on TDI.
My short-term target for this market scenario is 1.23130, while the medium-term target is 1.2285.
EURJPY Bearish projectionThe EUR/JPY currency pair rallied to the resistance zone around 141.819 after a prestine W-pattern formation in the early hours of the London session. My technical analysis suggests that it may sell off to the downside in the short to medium term. The medium-term target for the pair is 141.50, which is a key intra-day resistance-turned-support level that the pair has bounced off several times in the past. This level may provide temporary support, but if the bearish momentum persists, the pair could sell off further to the extended medium-term target of 141.10.
Recent statements from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, regarding the possibility of reaching a 2% inflation rate, coupled with wage growth and the current easing policy, could gradually boost the Japanese economy.
However, a break of the resistance zone could see EURJPY rally to the next resistance level.
In conclusion, the market outlook for EUR/JPY is bearish in the short to medium term, with potential selloff targets of 141.50 and 141.10.
GBPCHF: Small up move, then DROP or A straight DROPThe GBPCHF currency pair is currently experiencing a period of consolidation. Traders should exercise caution and closely monitor market movements as the market determines its direction. While there is a higher likelihood of a DECLINE in the pair, it is advisable to WAIT for market makers to move the price up to the supply zone between 1.14233 and 1.14054 in order to deplete the liquidity of early sellers before considering a SELL position. Once this occurs, it would be appropriate to seek out valid selling OPPORTUNITIES. At this time, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach and closely monitor market developments.
Because there is liquidity on both sides, straightaway drop is also possible.
This is my opinion.
GBPUSD ShortThe GBP/USD currency pair has exhibited potential for a short position following an upward movement of over 250 pips from the previous projection, resulting in an attractive risk-reward ratio of 1:5.
The pair displayed characteristics consistent with manipulation by market makers during the early hours of the London trading session. This could potentially indicate an effort to entice less experienced traders to enter long positions. Based on the analysis of technical indicators, the GBP/USD is currently in a zone where both bullish and bearish movements are possible. However, considering the rejection of the zone by the price action, a bearish outlook is favored. A close below the 13-day exponential moving average will serve as confirmation for a short position entry.
Conversely, if the price closes above the level of 1.24212, the bias will shift to bullish. The short-term target for this trade is 1.23245, while the medium-term target is 1.22886.
GBPUSD showing bullish signsGBPUSD has been showing bullish signs in the recent days and it may be a good time to buy the currency as it has the tendency to rally up to 1.22500 and then 1.23000. One of the key factors supporting this prediction is the divergence on TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) which is a technical indicator that helps to identify trend strength and potential trend reversal.
Additionally, the pair had a stop hunt taken on Monday, away from the psychological Support and Resistance level which is another indication of bullish sentiment. A stop hunt is a technique used by market makers to push prices away from key levels in order to trigger stop-loss orders and create liquidity. The fact that the stop hunt was taken away from the psychological level, indicates that the buyers are in control and that the pair is likely to continue moving higher.
Furthermore, the stop hunt area was tested again in the Asian session today which confirms the strength of the support at this level, and increases the probability of a rally. My short term target is 1.22500, and my medium term target is 1.23000.
GBPAUD to go up!Looking at the chart, we can see that the pair seem to have found floor at the zone (1.74988 - 1.74805), which could serve as a support level going forward. In my opinion, the technical analysis suggests that the GBP/AUD currency pair has the potential to rise higher in the short-term with a target at 1.7570, 1.7620 and 1.7670 respectively. Confirmed by a bullish divergence on TDI, GBPAUD might rally to the upside as expected.
EURUSD appears bearish From my viewpoint, EURUSD appears to be encountering a short or medium term resistance at a specific price range (1.08679 to 1.08554). Although there seem to be another resistance level at (1.08900 - 1.09245). This can be due to a variety of factors such as a large number of sell orders at that level or market sentiment.
If this resistance level holds, meaning that the price is unable to break above it, my analysis suggests that the EURUSD could potentially drop to 1.07681 and to the 200EMA acting as dynamic support at 1.071270. With market sentiment becoming bearish, traders may also be more likely to sell the EURUSD, further driving down the price.
Bearish orderflowHello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied
Bearish orderflow Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied
Bullish tradeI look forward to risk 1% of my account on this great setup, I will be risking 5% on my Prop firm account. This is SMC.
Confluences:
1. Liquidity grab
2. Analysis time frame structure(Daily) is Bullish
3. Intraday time frame is also bullish
4. Price @ Discount level
5. Unmitigated POI on M3
10/06/22 EurUsd 1h AnalysisEurUsd created a peak formation Low and has played out a multi-session W pattern with heavy divergence on the TDI. Market price has now shifted from Bearish to Bullish and price rose from Peak Formation to Level 1 and did its first Stop hunt low to the 50ema on Friday which also coincides with the 1.05000 zone. Meaning this pair could either drop to the 1.03500 zone to create a 22 trade (2nd leg on the 2nd leg) or price action will follow the regular market movement and continue with its Bullish cycle. On Forex Factory there is news for Monday that will be good for the Eur currency.