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Multi symbol analysis (weekly) : DXY seems to be moving lower!Now that the US elections are behind us, all the intentions of the weekly chart of US DOLLAR / DXY seem as if it's going to move lower! It is forming bearish order blocks (on Weekly), trapping longs all along the way since March 2020 & also there are a bunch of shorts trapped from April 2018 timeframe that would love an exit. Till price action reaches those zones, DXY is heading lower! What this means? USDXXX pairs to move lower XXXUSD pairs to move higher Equity to head higher Another reason DXY could head lower is if more stimulus gets announced for the US economy. I'll add more evidence from other forex pairs about why I think this move could be verified. PS : Another way DXY could move is in a consolidation - as below the current price, we have unidirectional price movement from Apr 2018 timeframe - which could counteract lower movement.
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by makuchaku
TBonds (ZB1!) 4H - Trapped traders on both sides of priceTrade setup There are trapped traders on both sides of price above monthly highs & lows for TBonds ZB1! on 4H timeframe. When price comes back to either of these zones - these trapped traders will want to exit - giving us an exit! Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (if trading DXY or an uncorrelated instrument, ignore the correlation) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
CBOT:ZB1!
by makuchaku
How to draw a trade zone for false breakout / liquidity hunt?Once you spot a location to trade from (be it a liquidity hunt, or a false breakout + market structure break) - that's only half of the job. The next most important step is to draw a correct zone which gives you a safe and reliable way to enter and define your risk. I've always found that drawing zones which help you define your entry & risk is an art, more so than science. And this doesn't work for me - because if it's not driven by a process, I'm bound to make mistakes in this important step. Hence, I wanted it to be more defined - to the level that it could be given to a programmer who could code it. Primary method of drawing the zone 1) Find the candle that generated the signal 2) Draw a rectangle into left side of price on the signal candle (green rectangle) For SHORT signal => 3) Draw (yellow) zone using the highest + last UP candle which exited this rectangle For LONG signal => 3) Draw (yellow) zone using the lowest + last DOWN candle which exited this rectangle 4) If the candle right after signal candle does not test this zone, then trade this zone as a signal - ELSE - look for the secondary way of drawing the zone Secondary method of drawing the zone 1) Find the signal candle and look left of it For SHORT signal => 2) Draw zone using last UP candle which broke an HH pivot For LONG signal => 2) Draw zone using last DOWN candle which broke an LL pivot 3) Discard the zone if price revisited that zone before giving the signal There are many reasons why these zones work (if your overall trade is correct) - These will be the candles which are guaranteed to be engulfed by the signal making candle - If these are institutional trades, most likely it's here where they set the fakeout trap. Hence, when price comes back to these zones, they have no need to take prices beyond your stop loss as there's no more liquidity there - If these are those amateur folks who were trading the breakout, this is where the smartest of them bought/sold and will be the first in line to exit If you have feedback on how to improve this zone drawing process, please leave your feedback in the comments below. Cheers!
Education
by makuchaku
DXY (Dollar Index) 4H : Trapped buyers waiting to exit : SHORTTrade setup DXY (Dollar index) has trapped buyers at the top. When price comes back to this zone, they'd love an exit - giving us a short trade in the process. Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY (if trading DXY, ignore the correlation part) AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by makuchaku
EURUSD (4H) : Trapped buyers => SHORT trade!When DXY is making higher highs, why is EURUSD breaking the strong correlation and trying to go higher? ==> It's a TRAP for buyers! When price comes back to the marked zone, trapped buyers will exit - giving us a beautiful SHORT trade. Look for the monthly liquidity to get raided as a target! Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R
Short
by makuchaku
USDDKK (4H) Backtest : 76% Win rate (19.75 R), 82% non-losers!Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 433% - Non losers : 82% - Net R : 19.75 R across 17 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.52 - Avg R / trade = 1.16 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
1
GBPUSD (4H) Backtest : 65% Win rate (14.25 R), 71% non-losers!Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 220% - Non losers : 71% - Net R : 14.25 R across 17 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.3 - Avg R / trade = 0.84 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
4
SPY500/Emini/ES : Daily schematic of liquidity & trapped tradersThere are a whole bunch of trapped traders on both sides of price for SPY500 / Emini futures / ES1! which will want to exit, giving us a trade in opposite direction (yellow zones) Beware of the engineered liquidity zones - which are almost like a candy land for big institutions - where orders are just sitting to be taken! Those zones WILL BE poked poked! (green zones) Good luck & good trading for the election week! Please note : the zones shown here are for reference purpose only. Actual buy & sell zones should be fine tuned with a lower timeframe reference & more detailed analysis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by makuchaku
6
USDSGD (4H) Backtest : 62% Win rate (12 R), 85% non-losers!Detailed backtest results - prnt.sc - Win/Loss ratio : 400% - Non losers : 85% - Net R : 12 R across 13 trades - Avg R / winner = 1.5 - Avg R / trade = 0.92 Icons on the chart - Thumbs up : Trade was a win - Thumbs down : Trade was a loss - Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven - Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers - Bug : I could not understand how to trade, so avoided trading Trade qualifiers - $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) - Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss How to read icons on chart? - Thumbs up + $ icon => Winner trade, direction was supported by DXY - Thumbs down + $ icon => Loser trade, direction was supported by DXY - Cross + $ icon => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction (though a liquidity hunt wasn't an issue) - Cross + $ icon + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because DXY didn't support trade direction & a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss - Cross + Dollar bill => Trade skipped because a potential liquidity hunt was due near the stop loss (though DXY did support trade direction) Indicators at bottom of chart 1) Count of HH/LL for the pair - shows when market structure is broken => Also generates a signal on the main chart (highlighted vertical lines) 2) Count of HH/LL for DXY - shows how the pair is moving in correlation to DXY 3) Correlation of the pair with DXY - just to give an idea about how the correlation is moving Strategy Pickup a pair which is highly correlated to DXY AND Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management 1) Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free 2) Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even 3) Close trade at 3R 4) Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS1 : Please excuse the busy chart! PS2 : This backtest was performed right to left, so could include visibility bias. However, I tried to follow the strategy rules in all trades.
by makuchaku
2
USDCAD (4H) backtest : 58% Win rate (11.25 R), 92% non-losers!Detailed backtest results prnt.sc Win/Loss ratio : 700% Non losers : 92% Net R : 11.25 R across 12 trades Avg R / winner = 1.61 Avg R / trade = 0.94 Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers Bug : I could not understand how to trade, do avoided trading Trade qualifiers $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss Strategy Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY , the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even Close trade at 3R Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS : Please excuse the busy chart!
by makuchaku
6
EURUSD (4H) backtest : 69% Win rate (12.75 R)Detailed backtest results prnt.sc Win/Loss ratio : 300% Net R : 12.75 R across 13 trades Avg R / trade = 0.98 Avg R / winner = 1.42 Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to one or more trade qualifiers Bug : I could not understand how to trade, do avoided trading Trade qualifiers $ icon : DXY was either supporting the trade direction (and we took the trade as win/loss/BE), or DXY was not supporting the trade direction (and trade was not taken) Dollar bill icon : Liquidity was present behind the stop loss Strategy Wait for market structure to break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders AND Liquidity in form of equal highs/lows should not be present behind the stop loss AND Since the pair is highly correlated to DXY, the formation of HH/LL in DXY should support the trade's direction at the time of zone's formation Risk management Reduce 50% at 1R => Trade becomes risk free Reduce further 25% at 2R AND move SL to break-even Close trade at 3R Winner = 1.75R Variables Avg winner = 1.75R PS : Please excuse the busy chart!
by makuchaku
GICHSGFIN (4H) Backtest : 69% win rate across 13 trades => 11.4 Detailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 77% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
NSE:GICHSGFIN
by makuchaku
USDCHF (4H) Backtest : 60% win rate across 20 trades => 14.2 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 75% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
by makuchaku
USDCAD (4H) Backtest : 55% win rate across 22 trades => 12.2 RDetailed backtest result : prnt.sc Non-looser = 68% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
by makuchaku
2
GOLD (4H) Backtest : 78% win rate across 18 trades => 21.4 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Non-looser = 94% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to begin trapping the traders.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by makuchaku
EURGBP (4H) Backtest : 48% win rate across 21 trades => 10 RBacktest results : prnt.sc Non-looser = 71% Icons on the chart Thumbs up : Trade was a win Thumbs down : Trade was a loss Circle with a cross : Trade was breakeven Cross : Did not take the trade due to presence of liquidity (equal highs/lows) behind the stop loss Variables Avg winner = 1.6R Strategy : wait for market structure break, then trade the retest of that zone. Zone is drawn using the first candle which crossed the pivot high/low to trap the traders.
by makuchaku
GBPCHF 75 pip scalp long 22nd OCT 2020Good afternoon everyone, hope you're all well. We have been smashing GBPCHF this week and we are looking for another trade to push into the next trading box. We have a 75 pip target, with a very tight stop loss of 15 pips. There is a lot of trapped volume and the fact that the previous weeks high hasn't been broken indicates there could be a nice push into the next level. The reason for the tight stop loss is because there was a double bottom for the traders that have taken it short. So if the price breaks that level where the stop loss is, it could drop lower into a lower trading box or consolidate. We will hold this trade for 12, 15 min candles and if we don't see any movement we will close the trade.
Long
by davieovermeer
GBPUSD scalp short LND 16th OCT 2020 50 pipsGood morning everyone! Hope you've had a great week trading. We have seen the price come up and touch the round number level of 1.29500. From here we could short back down to 1.9200 giving us a 50 pip return. Buyers and sellers are neck and neck, these types of trade should hit the targets within 1-2 hours. If we still have a position open after this, we should either move the stop-loss to entry or close the trade in it's the current state. Best of luck
Short
by davieovermeer
2