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Bitcoin - Goldilocks and The Three Bears - Bear IIThe end is nigh for digital currency. Bitcoin will never see $12,000 again. The Party in equities is also about to end like the Hindenburg and mankind will reap the rewards of all that it has sown in the process of helping the Chinese Communist Party install socialism and persecute Falun Gong around the four corners of the globe. There is a lot of money to be made in the deflation of a bubble, so long as you're not the sucker holding the bags. Unfortunately, since you like to trade long only and you like to chase the reflection of the moon in water while you're intoxicated on lies, you're the rule, and not the exception to that rule. You're the food, not the Orca. The part of the story nobody tells is the poverty and austerity that comes during recession brought in by the installation of socialism. Even those who ran the front and facilitated the transaction will be subject to a bitter winter. In the end, everyone will see that all participants were useful idiots, that is, pawns who were merely being sacrificed so that Chinese Communism could rule the world under a moon tinged by its blood red flag. Trade short anywhere above $11,500 and send Arthur Hayes a postcard to remember you by while he and his Hong Kong triad (CCP United Front) boys rot for the rest of their lives in prison. Market structure will be broken. All the double bottoms formed along the way will be smashed. Four digits will be lost. Although five digits will come back, it will come back only once and in most ill form. Buy yourself a Supra with the proceeds and name it "Liquidated Long". Enjoy looking at it in your garage since you won't be allowed to drive it during Wuhan Pneumonia lockdown.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by LordWrymouth
1
The 2020 Tech Bubble ExplainedIf you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, I’ll be explaining ‘The 2020 Tech Stock Bubble’ crisis, through the lens of the Dot com bubble of the 90’s. In the process, I’ll also provide educational content on technically spotting a bubble through different phases. What is a Financial Bubble? A bubble is said to have formed when equity prices rise significantly, far beyond their proper valuation, in a short period of time. Bubbles are intangible and hard to spot, but their existence is undeniable, and hard to ignore. As such, it’s important for traders and investors to manage their risk before the bubble bursts. What is the Dot-com Bubble? - The Dot-com Bubble, also known as the Internet Technology Bubble, was a rapid rise in US tech stock equity valuations fueled by retail and institutional investments in internet based companies during the late 90s. - During this bubble, we saw an exponential move in the market, in which the Nasdaq index rose from under 1,000 to over 5,000 within 5 years. - The Dot-com Bubble grew out of a combination of speculation: investing in internet tech-stocks at the time was the typical get-rich-quick scheme, as there were huge venture capital funds ready to be spent on startups with minimal substance. - Capital flew into those companies, in hopes that they’d be profitable one day, and these investments were done in an extremely bold manner, with retail investors and institutional investors both looking to maximize profits on a speculative basis. What are we seeing today? - The market we are seeing today is not moved by investors who are looking at the long term prospect of the company. The Nasdaq Index overextending well above the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the monthly demonstrates that the market is driven primarily by momentum. - After the strong ‘V shape’ recovery we witnessed from the Corona Virus (COVID-19) stock market crash, people are trying to expose themselves to the financial market with the wrong mindset- chasing the next big thing, that will make them rich quick. The general public is trying to speculate where all the money is flowing into, and they arrive at one conclusion: tech stocks. - As such, it could be said that on a bigger picture, the market’s characteristics we see today are very similar to that of the Dot-com bubble. With a clearly bullish market trend, the number of new investors who are introduced into the market increase by the day, and with the profits they witness through growth stocks (and tech stocks in particular), 30% gains in a day has become a new norm for them. However, this does not indicate that one should liquidate all their assets, and cash out before the bubble bursts. Counterarguments 1. Introduction of liquidity by the Fed The Federal Reserve has been printing money at an unprecedented rate in order to rescue the economy from the Coronavirus pandemic. As such, it’s only logical that the stock market rises at least as the same pace at which money is being supplied. The Fed’s approach towards money supply is completely different from that of the 2000’s, which is why comparing the current tech-driven bull market to the Dot-com bubble is an incorrect analogy. 2. Momentum Relating to the reason above, it could be said that momentum was introduced to the market trend ever since the Fed started actively intervening in the economy. They decided to leave the interest rates near zero, at least until 2023, which indicates that momentum could continue throughout for years. 3. Fundamentals of Tech Stocks Unlike companies of the Dot-com bubble, tech companies today demonstrate some value and substance. Amazon (AMZN) is one of the few companies that survived the Dot-com bubble burst, and later grew to become a multibillion dollar conglomerate. Arguably a tech stock, Tesla Motors (TSLA) has also shown incredible performance in their financials over the past few quarters, demonstrating substance in their rise in stock prices. Whether the current valuation of the tech giants leading the Nasdaq index today is another question. One thing that’s very clear is that with the 4th Industrial Revolution, companies in the tech field show unprecedented rates of growth and innovation, which could justify the current bull market. How to Spot a Bubble Spotting a bubble is extremely difficult, if not, impossible. Most people weren’t aware of the Dot-com bubble until they later thought about it in retrospect. However, referencing Hyman Minsky and Charles Kindleberger’s work can help us understand the structure of a bubble, and the characteristics of the market in each phase 1. Displacement Bubbles star with a shock to the system. They could be events like war, political change, technological innovation, or the introduction of a new monetary policy. A displacement creates a new opportunity for a sector of the economy, and in this case, it’s technology. 2. Boom A boom begins as optimism grows. A positive feedback loop leads to greater investment, which then leads to economic growth. Borrowers increasingly become more willing to take on debt and risk. 3. Euphoria Participants expect prices to increase at unsustainable rates, and even with a small number of people realizing there is a bubble, they continue to participate in the market thinking that they can load their assets to someone else before the market bursts. The general public begins to enter the market as media attention grows, and as individuals see their friends and acquaintances get rich. This is the phase of irrational exuberance. 4. Distress At some point, an event that causes a decline in confidence takes place. Depending on each bubble, panic can set in immediately, or could take several years to fully develop. 5. Panic When a crisis takes place, most people don’t even realize that it’s happening. Insiders and institutional investors are usually the ones to sell first. Panic is introduced into the market at retail investors all attempt to sell at the same time. This sell-off caused by panic continues until investors are convinced that cash will be made available to meet demand, leading investors to buy back in. Conclusion Despite the current stock market index highly resembling that of the Dot-com bubble era, we also have to take into account the fact that many factors that fundamentally affect the stock market have changed. Also, considering that the Dot-com bubble lasted almost 5 years, even if we could confirm that the current market trend is a bubble, it does not necessarily indicate that the bubble will burst immediately. While it’s difficult to have patience, and suppress the urge to sell at the peak, buy back in when the market bottoms, investors should realize that there is still a lot of capital that could potentially flow into the market. As such, in lieu of trying to time the top, they should be focused on the market trend’s momentum, and execute their orders based on the confirmations provided by the market.
TVC:IXICLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
13
sp500 likely to retest previous highsDovish policy of the feds coupled with the strong bullish reaction of the stock market since the fed funds borrowing cuts means the rally can continue. But how long is difficult to say. While some argue we can continue to be bullish and avoid a bear market, that sounds hard to believe and unreasonable. But for now its best to long to these areas, and only consider hedging puts up higher near the 3510-3560 area Technical wise we have formed several bullish divergences on the 1hr. The first one suceeded somewhat. A decent rally followed by a lower low, and the current one if it works shall show a gap up with a pre market pump
SP:SPXLong
by chartingman43
Amazon looking toppish ($AMZN) ~ Currently in a MASSIVE bubble ~Please hit that like button if you appreciate the chart & visuals with the clear explanation 👍 (all time highs) ~ amazon is currently in a massive bubble, the higher it goes, the harder it will crash when other stocks & markets decide to as well (TSLA, SPX, DONQ, BTC, ETH, LINK, & ALTS) The buy opportunity is not now, while yes of course it may still raise (it's in price discovery price action mode) but eventually will come crashing down ~ imo (where i'd buy if markets crash) ~this level is a strong support zone (structural integrity) $2000 USD ish November 13th, 2013 is when amazon (AMZN) really started to gain an increase in price. 2014 would be a potential TRUE bottom if the markets ever crashed to lower levels ~$423 USD
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by SlowAndSteadyTrading
1
Time for Tech?An interesting bubble has just burst, sending tech values lower, albeit still nowhere lower than pre-2020. Instead, it seems that tech is hoping to make a comeback faster than expected (at least, for the stocks which survived the burst). In this case, we can look at a choice between SPY and QQQ; one would choose SPY when it goes in the red for short term gains as it is doing relatively better conditional on the point of normalization (where numerator and denominator are equal). For the time being, it seems we are still at a local minimum. Should a recovery indeed be in order, now would probably be the time for tech.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by STOCHASTICU
Pokadot turning bearishWith BTC on the road to 10k, I would like to point out some concern with Pokadot that many people over look. It is the rise, yet what got me is CoinMarketCap info on the exchanges. News -Bithumb got raided due to offering a security that was never seen to the investors. Regulation is gonna suck for people trying to stay away from the government. -Uniswap coins are being pump crazily, which is causing alot of conern in the crypto space. TA Now my concern before we get into the chart if you go over to coinmarketcap and click on exchanges and click on liquidity, what do you see? Its pretty alarming, but lets discuss. -One 3 of the exchanges are own or have connections to huobi. Huobi Global DOT/USDT, HBTC DOT/USDT, and Huobi Global DOT/BTC. So top 9 exchanges in liquity is own by huobi and their rating under confidence is Low. RED FLAG -Two 7 out of 9 exchanges have the Moderate to Low confidence to the exchange and 5 out of 9 are scaled to the Low. RED FLAG. -Three 7 out of 9 exchanges 24hr volume is 217,853,759, which according to MC is about 37%, yet go top volume in 24hrs you see a bunch of Low confidence in the exchanges. RED FLAG This is concerning in overall gives a bearish case and not a lot of confidence in a project that just popped up. -One there is a trading range between 5.6835-6.4508 -Now to me its heading towards overbought and looks like a bearish divergence with the volume dropping, yet the price keeps going up. Gives a target (if you believe in this project), a price target of 4.5395. We can't really go off of VPVR, since someone said they did a stock like split or something. Final Thoughts Seems really risky due to the liquidity problem this coin/token faces and looking at the confidence from coinmarketcap seems very concering. Again I know nothing about this project, yet on a trading and exchange view point it doesn't look great for me. Plus many people saying we are in an altcoin bubble atm, so take it with a grain a salt. My only tip in altcoins is all in on 0x, speculate on other shitcoins, and buying nano under a dollar is a must cause you know that community will pump it over a dollar.
Short
by nathanielx9
NASDAQ Price Inflation vs Money Supply InflationMuch of the recent growth in the stock market can be attributed to the basic law of supply and demand. There's been around a 25% increase in the money supply from the pre-coronavirus baseline. There are the same number of stocks being chased by all the extra dollars, So if nothing else changed, this would result in a 25% increase in overall average stock prices. However, the coronavirus factor has restructured the revenue distribution share causing losses in the traditional economy and gains in the tech sector. As a result, we see the following changes from the baseline: More traditional S&P companies: 9% up from the baseline Tech-heavy NASDAQ : 36% up from the baseline Money supply : 23% up from baseline In order to know if the NASDAQ is in overvalued bubble territory, we need to know how much NASDAQ revenues have increased since the lockdown started. NASDAQ gains 36% - 23% money supply increase = 13% difference So if NASDAQ revenues are up greater than 13%, the NASDAQ is still undervalued. If revenues have increased less than 13%, then we're in a bubble caused by FOMO (fear of missing out). The good news for NASDAQ investors is that NASDAQ earnings are up 61% from pre-coronavirus levels . This suggests the top for the NASDAQ is an 83% increase from the pre-corona baseline (22% from money supply inflation and 61% from extra earnings). Thus, the NASDAQ likely still has 53% higher to go before it's overvalued (83% total - 36% current increase so far).
TVC:SPX
by mikepsinn
The bubble is just beyond. How high can it go? 5000?Tech stocks are more expensive than anything. Tesla, that builds electric cars using EV tech from 1800, that does not even make money is in the top 10 largest US companies. They have a massively larger valuation than several other car makers that actually sell cars AND have electric R&D budget even bigger than Tesla, AND better EV. Huge short squeeze huge retail and hedge funds that have clients that don't want them to miss out and are all scared they won't be to exit scam first but if they try they'll be too early and miss out. Companies don't even make money they just get welfare checks from Trump. Price to earning ratios are skyhigh again but it's ok we are in a new paradigm where they do not mean anything. Sharks are taking advantage. Tesla did a split so novices could buy shares. I think even broke people have access to the stock market with some sort of "part stock" thing, where they can buy not even a single share but a fraction of a share. The USA government seems interested in printing more money and throwing it at the public to inflate the bubble and get them to be good consumers. Zimbabwe 2: The return of the printing press. The stock market is infested with beginner day traders. A guy like Portnoy that started in March-April is seen as an "OG". Just like crypto in 2017 :D Some people are saying the "democratisation" of markets is great. Just another bubble. The public will lose their money & the rich will get richer, and then the marxists will get angry and blame "racism" or whatever. Robinhood & HFT firms are probably making record earnings (should invest in them maybe). It'll be fun to watch. Meanwhile... What really would be fun is watching them get all euphoric and laugh at gold & foreign stock holders because they made "500%" totally oblivious the USD is worth nothing. Either way... They'll celebrate, then be in denial, attack real traders like me, get rekt and quit. Same story as usual. And it has been going on for hundreds of years at least. One could perhaps buy an option that expires in years? I prefer to stick to what I do best. Who cares where stocks go I'd rather stay comfy with my currency pairs and commodity futures. Why even "invest" in a bubble? Maybe it is easy money as long as it goes up. Can't be bothered really.
TVC:SPX
by MrRenev
1