End game: USD currency fiat supply, Fed BS, US Public Debt RED DASHED PARABOLA IS ON LINEAR CHART. I will publish Log charts next.
These charts show end of 2023 something has to happen. I suspect that we will see a new structure/change to USD as the reserve currency and the next 30-40 year evolution of reserve currency as uncovered by Mike Malone in hidden secrets of Money.
Bubble
SPX Bubble Where do we begin, well here it goes:
We are in a Bear Market
1. All time high bubble has popped with a fastest one month drop of 36% in history,exceeding the pace of declines even during the Great Depression.
2. Megaphone pattern is playing out from 2018-2020 high and lows
3. Elliott Wave corrective ABC with leg B looks to be completed with 2800 level rejection, leg C is about to start which will take SPX a lot lower towards retesting resent lows around 2180
4. Leg B created a bearish bounce of approx. 25% with a rising wedge clearly defined.
Every bear market has these wild bounces and this one is no different.
5. Current price rejection is sitting at .50 Fibonacci level.
6. There is a Death Cross on a daily with 50dma crossing 200
6. Drop to 2200 for leg C is a start to retest the resent lows with 1800 in the picture.
Dell has an awful balance sheetDell has been on the down for a year, now they are really going down. And they are still doing stock buy-backs. The stock is way too high. Dell will be the main stock dragging down the XLK ETF for the next two weeks, and the next two months. They could get in serious debt trouble here.
Dell is my number one short position with out-of-the-money put options into June.
Massive Triangle (for personal use) I want to see how this goes down - in a way it is Bitcoin's big make or break moment. A break below practically signifies the end of the Bitcoin price bubble, and a break upwards may confirm that we are indeed a new cyclical uptrend. It's any sides game right now, but I am noting the huge uptick in volume.
Did The Everything Bubble Just Pop??Inside a month we have nearly liquidated more assets than what was lost during the entire .Com bubble!
There is a chance to catch within a few months around 16-17k - however - the market won't fully be recovered and healthy again until we do a full reset all the way down around 12,000.
If that indeed happens then by the time its all said and done Wall Street would have lost more money than the .Com Bubble and Great Recession combined!
But hey at least the charts show that 2029-2031 should be booming again!
Peace & Love -
BK
The end of Bitcoin Speculative BubbleThis obviously isn't a technical analysis, but an example of what a blow-off would look like if it is indeed what we are going to experience (and i strongly believe we are).
We know that bitcoin is a speculative bubble, we know what a speculative bubble blow-off look like, we know that a bubble that takes 10 years to appear can blow-off in just a few months.
Take care of your money and most importantly of yourself and your family, don't stay in a sinking boat because of anger, fear or greed, take whatever loss/profit you made and get out of the biggest ponzi scheme ever created before it's too late ;)
YIELD CURVE IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD!BOND MARKETS SAVANTS CLAIM THAT THE DEEPER THE YIELD-CURVE INVERSION, THE DEEPER THE RECESSION!
HOWEVER, VISIBLE INVERSIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW WHILE FOLLOWING RECESSIONS HAVE BEEN INCREASINGLY SEVERE, CULMINATING IN THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS!
BY THIS LOGIC, WILL THIS RECESSION BE MORE SEVERE THAN 2008?
Buy Gold and Sell StocksThe S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly outperformed Gold since 2015.
Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital in an interview from March 4th talked about the corporate bond bubble beginning to burst. He said the Fed would cut rates 50 basis points at the next FOMC. (They very well might cut before that.) He said he believes gold will go to a new all-time high. He also talked about how financial stocks in Japan are down 85% ever since they adopted zero rates 20 years ago. For that reason I think there's little reason to think that the SPX or the NASDAQ is going to bounce into a mega rally. I think there's a lot of reason to think that lots of money is going to flow into gold and silver.
Even in the worst case scenario - a 2008 style crash - gold will fall much less than stocks. Gold stocks may take a significant beating. For that reason it may be strategic to reduce mining exposure here and increase gold and silver exposure gradually.
The speed of the DXY 's fall the last 2 weeks tells me that it has the potential to fall a lot further if Fed Monetary policy expands tremendously. If that is the case, I don't think gold has much downside in this scenario versus 2008. But I think US indices as well as gold stocks have higher risk here. If the Fed is slow in cutting rates and never steps in front of the market until it crashes, then expect a 2008 type of event that may not be gold-negative.
POP!! POP! POP! 😂Oh well - only about 5000 points of a massive drop in just over 1 week. People are asking, " Has the bubble popped? ".
I go into this in some detail. I think we're at the start of the POP.
This thing is serious though.
I'd like to hear from others if they think this is going back up and to the moon.
Tesla, like Amazon's 2001 98% drop!Amazon in 2001 crashed 98% from it's All-Time High
Tesla will crash a minimum of 70% from this ATH because of many reasons.
-Factories will close
-CoronaVirus will stop supplies
-Disruption of supply chains
-Sales will stop in Europe and far-east
-Tesla is already in a bubble
Spce is going for a crash landing?Our last TA on SPCE was pretty acurate we got a bounce just above our target with just .20cents off. I'm always a follower of trading range lines or highs lows in predicting pull backs. As of now at closing we are at $26.50 with the low of $25.71, which is marketed on this graph since aftermarket price movement isn't shown due to low volume, yet we all know SPCE has bubblish volume. As of now we can hold off on SPCE until we get bullish movement, but what caused this drop?
1. SPCE was in a microbubble with Bullshit expectations.
2. The EPS was off by a Shit load and anyone could have seen this coming, besides the people getting behind the hype.
3. Corona ingeneral has had affect on the market after it spread to Europe and recently theres a case in California.
What's next for SPCE? well its the market bubble graph and as of now we could say we are in Anxiety since the bounce was Complacency. We could honestly see a sub $10 SPCE with we knowing SPCE won't beable to make any money even raising the price will just hurt the company itself. They need development like SpaceX with inovation on its Rockets. SpaceX has reuseable rockets.
Next target is our trading range of $19.06-$24.25. You can see past TA which hasn't change
QQQ Breakdown - The Bubble is poppingI've been looking for a market top for awhile due to many macro and fundamental reasons. Further downside can be accelerated by the odds increasing that Bernie Sanders may be the next US president if the market trump claimed credit for falls apart before the election. We don't seem to come into solid resistance until we hit the August trading range. If we undercut the August lows, I think we still have plenty of room to the downside. Either way, am considering reversing short positions to at least neutral once we hit the 200-day moving average as it may come in at similar levels.
Virgin Galatic long or shortVirgin Galatic has been making its name recently, yet should you be buying or selling? The honest answer nobody knows, yet we can try to get pretty dam close to where its gonna go. Almost everyone knows that this company is gonna be losing money in the short term and mid long term, yet is priced in? I say it's not and its EPS will be corolated with the SP500 with the ETF UFO being connected to SPCE price movement till the reevaluate their portfolio.
For a discloser I sold my SPCE at 27.80 after buying at 11.30, yet I been playing it has a caution from being from the Crypto markets. I'm not saying I'm a bear cause I sold early, but I just want to see confirmation and strength in the graph before reentering with its atl being the $7 range
I would go short with it 19.06 being a last resort hold for the bulls and 25.25 being just above a 60% correction in the micro bubble of SPCE. I put 27.99 give or take as we may have a bounce unless we blow through it. The MACD is bearish with the RSI neutrual, which could have a short squeeze yet looks very dependent on what the EPS is gonna say. A trading range of 38.72 has the high, yet the low hasn't been fully formed just yet but could say at current price could be the bottom of the current trading range, yet the volume has been rougly 100million shares traded daily.
I would be short with no option call just shave off profits and WSB is already moving on from SPCE, yet shouldn't really take financial advise from them since with the amount of traders there could only move the market all together is .01% thats if everyone got behind a stock.