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Bubble

[Lessons from history]: BTC will push after consolidating!Bitcoin has been moving strongly in last weeks, but let's look out of the box for a minute. Seems many people have been focused on super short term graphs and gains while this great volatility was happening. However, even in short term trading, there are phases of growth, dips and consolidation before the next push. Look at the big picture can reveal some small important details and the other way around. Checking higher timeframes, pattern and trends helps you improve short term view. It's always nice to get a view from history. It doesn't happen in exactly the same way but usually, it does repeat itself in similar patterns. I propose to check up this graph closely and you might notice some similarities and differences from 2016 and now. We had a consolidation phase and then the push started: - price has grown nearly the same % - it has also fallen in similar % - Fibonacci level 50 holds in order for bulls to stay in place - volumes had 2 spikes - ... - ..and human psychology haven't changed much either. What do you expect next? Here is my view: Most probably we will be now consolidating and more or less oscillating around a certain price before the next big push up comes. Few % up or down is nothing in comparison to what and where we can expect Bitcoin to go if history repeats itself. That doesn't mean we wong go up or down in the short term, but it can be risky trying to catch the fish when it starts to swim fast again. Will you trade it and try to catch short term gains and/or will you mostly invest by buying the dips and getting a discount on the price? Don't forget that some traders make less than the ones that just hold the position (in the bull market). PS: It's not investment advice. It's just an idea! ;-)
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by Samoto
Beware the biggest bubble of all times! Part 2Ray Dalio made a post about how and why he thinks we are going towards a paradigm shift. What I know is this bubble is going to violently collapse and it will be biblical. Jeff Besos is already planning his way off this planet. What I heard is every rich person was planning how he will manage his bunker, security guards etc, OR ways off the planet. The end of the world is coming. This stupid over-consumption uber inflation money printing bubble is going to explode into a giant nuclear firework. I don't know when it is coming but people are preparing, and it now appears imminent. Not something that will happen in "a long time" but in our lifetimes, in the next 5 years even. So for this occasion I am making my regular end of the world post. You got such clear signs that we are at the peak: Cryptocurrencies... IPOs go up 750% in 3 days... (All going to zero <3) There is talk around gold but isn't the price at historical highs even inflation adjusted? I do not know enough about it to comment and I am not interested in researching it. The madness is not ending. Good, the more they push the bubble the faster the end will come. Make it explode! In the past century the economy/world has had a paradigm shift, and of course no one notices it, if things have been a certain way their whole life they view it as "normal". Totally unable to think outside of the box or get in other people shoes, totally unable to understand how anything came to be... "A great point makes is that paradigms -- by definition -- are things that have gone on for long enough that people think they will never end. He touches on examples like debt driving asset prices higher and low volatility leading to high volatility." End the FED make something new and also a new US currency and a new world currency (I guess the world currency can be gold, better than a country currency btw the USD became the world standard because the US scammed every one the only reason it was it was because it was pegged to gold before they removed that, litteral scam, ye the world won't fall for the same trick a second time right?) The debt cycle system/paradigm I think could work but gee they pushed it so much. Just greedy idiots. They start a scam that cannot last forever, just their whole lives, who cares what happens next. All reported once I get out of the simulation. Reeeeport! Same with energy consumption etc. Human nature: obsessed with reproduction like rabbits, 0 care for the future only short sighted. Perfectly logical. Every one for themselves when this Titanic sinks. The transition won't be nice and smooth. I will be very stupid with absolutely nothing been thinken off, nothing prepared, as usual. Also some political unrest wars / civil wars etc. I really hope it happens soon so we can be done with it. I hate suspense. The faster a change is made the smoother the transition will be. So that means less fireworks. I do not have a personal home on the moon or mars so I would rather avoid big fireworks :( Otherwise would enjoy it. This is the log chart by the way: BOOM!
FRED:CPIAUCSLShort
by MrRenev
10
Crucial pivot point : Altcoins are in trouble if no higher highComparison of a same bubble structure between the Silver bubble and the total market cap of crypto (exl. Btc) If alts don't produce a higher high around here, then new lows are to be expected, with a slow and long decling of several years. Of course maybe a few alt coins will probably survive this pattern and will show a more bullish pattern than shitcoins and other alt coins, but this is a very important warning, as this bubble structure is so far 100% identical. Humans reproduce the same patterns on charts as our behaviour and nature does not change, and will never change. I am absolutely not against Alts beeing destroyed, as a large majority of them is a cancer to this space, and the crash of the majority of alts would educate the market in the way of driving dumb speculators into bitcoin maximalists, which is not worse. A little zoom in shows the Smma totally blocked the upmove of the altcoins market cap : Daily shows a golden cross, but the moving averages are already pointing to the downside, so i don't exclude a bearish cross to happen. Last note about the Silver chart that produced the exact same bottoming pattern as the Bitcoin chart of 2015:
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by Giovi6969
6
Bitcoin (BTCUSD, XBTUSD) - where to buy the dip and why!?!We are going through similar patterns, levels and emotional states as in the previous cycle. I propose you to check the movement after 2014 bubble pop and see the similarities by yourself. At the moment many non-experienced players are reading FUD news and falling into the emotional trap. We all know that it is smart to buy low and sell high, but how low and how high is the question!? Based on the projected levels it would probably be smart to buy around 50% Fibonacci retracement. If you can not stay by your computer and/or if you are struggling with your emotions and bankroll management there is a nice solution. Putting buy orders around 3 different levels gives nice average price if all 3 are hit and less feeling of FOMO if you get at least upper one right. From what I see now, I can say I will buy around 9k$, 8.5k$, and 8k$. What will you do? Take care and trade/invest responsibly. Use your mind and don't let your emotions (ab)use you. History repeats itself in a similar manner! PS: It's not investment advice. It's just an idea. ;-)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Samoto
9
Time to Hlod on!tl;dr big movement coming. (Isn’t that every other day though?) I started this analysis thinking we would be going up further here, but now I am leaning the other way due to point #5 Bitcoin is on the cusp of deciding its next move, setting the course for the near future. The direction is anyone’s guess right now, so let’s look at a few pieces of information we have and try to get a clearer picture: 1. The volume’s drying up as everyone in crypto holds their breath in anticipation, unsure of the direction we’ll be carried. We know a large movement is coming to carry us either over 13837.96 or below 9778.49 2. Long/Short positions don’t have many answers to offer either. Longs are establishing support at a healthy low level that implies ample upside potential, while Shorts just received their worst beating in history on June 30th and are currently sitting at historic lows. This information is inconclusive regarding direction, but it does show how poised the market is to embrace either choice. 3. Bitcoin is currently circling the 50% retracement from it’s last bubble popping. We are almost exactly at the half way point between the 2018 low and the 2017 high. Bitcoin briefly broke above the next retracement level at 13275 but the momentum was far too intense to be sustainable. 4. Google Trends shows a steady decrease in attention since the recent peak in hype on June 30th. This indicates a following decline from the Bitcoin price. Countering this point though is the fact that the ‘peak’ on June 30th was less than 1/4th of the attention Bitcoin received during the 2017 run-up, as well as the classic chicken and egg debate. 5. This looks and feels very similar to the peak we experienced in the early summer of 2017, both on technical factors and google trends. There was a similar 3-month period peaking with an attempt at 3000 in mid-June. What followed was a fast 30% retracement, similar to the recent one, and a consolidation towards the end of the month before a steady drop down to the 1800s While most of these points only provide a clearer picture of the indecisiveness of the market, number 5 is my strongest indicator that we have further consolidation before continuing our bull run. My main reason for this besides the similarities themselves to 2017 is what I believe to be the reason for the similarities. Human psychology, when hijacking the trading of an asset, has a very distinct signature. It is a bubble signature, and it looks and feels and smells the same every time. It’s not a commentary on the underlying asset. It’s a manifestation of human emotion overriding the market. That emotion, especially in group dynamics, has a readily perceivable pattern that looks the same every time, and financial markets are the easiest place to discern and visualize it. This looks like the early phase of another Bitcoin run-up, and with that, another bubble. I believe we will see the 9000 level again in a few weeks. If this moment is not where that trajectory begins, then I think we have one more leg up before we retrace to that level regardless. Disclaimer: I am a staunch Bitcoin bull in the long-term, as I believe it to be the most trustworthy form of money in human history. I have experienced the euphoria and despair of the last three bubbles, and have come out of each with a greater trust for BTC each time. I enjoy betting small amounts on the short-term movements. All posts are for informational purposes only and should not be mistaken for investment advice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by avidbrandy
3
The Bitcoin bubble Is Bitcoin just a giant bubble and is it ready to fail? Its hard to say where bitcoin will end upp in the future.. But if you have been in the trading space for a while you can clearly tell that the BTC chart look like a giant buble. We will look at the weekly chart in this analysis to get a bigger picture. History ussaly repeat itself and i have seen many Bubble charts and it does not end well.. as much as i want bitcoin to succeed i cant ignore the chart.. If you compare it to the most similar bubble chart you can clearly see that it has it similarities. And Peopel are screaming for Alt season the alts looks even worse than bitcoin.. You can tell that many are still in denial and emotional About the crypto space... Dont get me wrong i do really want bitcoin to succeed but the last bubble was diffrent and allot bigger than the past ones. Is it ever gonna go above ATH? well... i cant predict the future but i can compare it to similiar bubble charts and try to se where we are at the momment. If you look at the bio path holdings chart (BPTH) it looks extremly similiar to the BTC chart during the 2013/2014 bubble And it looks like this is the last pump before the big crash. Usally bubbles retrace 100% so if bitcoin will retrace 100% we will be back at 1200/1500 at some point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarkusBohinen
4
Rectangles not TrianglesI've seen both descending triangles and falling wedges as explanation for recent price action but to my mind neither are correct. You gotta negate the blow off top somewhat. Triangles account for it in their figure, but the bear flag channel doesn't, save for offering the dump support on that heart-line, which in the triangles has no structural support. We are not in a falling wedge breakout now because the "breakout" is too mediocre for such a dramatic formation. Regardless, a wedge can always reform into a channel upon breakout, which kinda negates it's wedge potential. Nor are we in a descending triangle as the fakeout dump on that is too extreme to then come back up and resume. What we are more likely seeing is a bear flag channel which retrace to the 61.8% fib at the top and dump to the parallel boundary at the bottom. Triangles are a compression of bears and bulls with one side being the clear winner. We don't have that here because this is not a real bull market. Bulls are not trying to buy here to hold long term. Only FOMO buyers are doing that because they missed the rally. Smart money is leaving the market and playing short term within the channel, because they got in at 4k. They know they can get in lower. Sure they got hedges to the upside and downside and can add leverage if need be, but they are gradually removing their positions to take profits. They can't take profits too fast as that would ruin their customer satisfaction, they need them to think there's still a chance, so they scale out slowly to get the highest price. A descending channel is a more long term move than a triangle that ends suddenly and crushes the market. Bulls (or should I say bears?) spent 5 months building this market to current levels, they don't want to instantly drop it down with a descending triangle. They want and need profits. Since we have had such a long term uptrend, a long term downtrend would seem more likely to balance back to the mean. Furthermore we haven't yet gotten to retest that critical trendline since we hit it at around 8k. If we don't break down through it one can then expect another bull move up. If we do... then you may see true panic in the market and capitulation. Finally 4 hr RSI still never hit oversold. That suggests bears are not trying too hard to break things. They are carefully restraining any violent moves. This is a fine hand of manipulation. Short term? Bearish Mid term? Neutral / bearish Long term? Bullish
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by pacman7331
3
SORRY FOR SPAMMING BITCOIN CHARTS BUT THIS IS BEAUTIFULI. TOLD. YOU. SO. On an "academic" perspective this is so beautiful, but first I want to celebrate. Because I saw it coming. I saw it all. And who else did? I of course predicted that ignorant people would tell me how wrong I am and "got burned". So please note what I wrote on this chart in green on the mid-upper right area: (This is just an example, we could also get a 1 year bear market till 3000, then 6 months of bull, etc) Here are ALL my public BLX charts. BLX weekly charts: BLX daily charts: There is no cherry picking these are all of them. There is no "weekly and above charts" filter, so BLX is the closest thing. And only BLX afaik has Bitcoin all time. I told people there would still be Bitcoin bubbles. But no 1 million. Smaller bubbles... Technically if we make it to 13k it will be as big as 2013. 2013 was a > 4.236 extension and so is 12k. Most crypto investors cannot figure out when I am on a 1 hour timeframe or monthly timeframe... They just "assume" I am on the same as them, whatever it is. Most are clearly not traders. I have way too many BTC posts to go filter them. And so many updates I was posting a ton 1 year ago. Good thing I keep BLX clean enough. So. Here we have it. SO, back to hyperwaves. Made a post about this before. Tyler Jenks is the one that gave it the name. I just call them asset bubbles. Or super bubbles. They always behave the same manner. It is over and 80% odds going back to phase 1 once a week closes below the phase 4 trendline. According to him. But he only had a sample size of a few dozen. What I can say is bubbles behave the same way, always. Made a post about this: Got an idea about Bitcoin financial bubble describing it: By the way... I found this screenshot in the idea. LOL. Once again... Got a recent chart for Bitcoin with descriptions: On the monthly chart: Going to wait a few more days before posting that monthly chart. No, I do not think we will go to zero in a straight line, and I am not 100% sure we go to zero zero. We might thought... Just look at BCH ... 11k to 17k was not phase 6 then? I thought it could go to 20-30k even 100k, but phases 6 never go past ath right?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
14
This doesn't look like 2000 and 2008 at allThere are too many people expecting a crash nowadays, because there are some indicators showing a similarity to the 2000 and 2008 stock market crashes. I am convinced however, that if too many people expect something, it will not happen. Quite the contrary will happen. I am not a stockmarket shill, I don't even own any stocks. I started learning TA when I started with bitcoin 6 years ago. So I might not be an expert on stocks, I fully admit that. It just is very interesting to make some observations. And it really was noteworthy how this time everyone expected a crash. The difference is, that in 2000 and 2008, almost nobody was expecting a crash of this magnitued. Such stuff always takes people by surprise. I see the situation now more like in the 80s. Nasdaq had some two strong dips back then, where it immediately recovered and made new highs. I see a similar situation now. The yearly picture is bullish anyways, see my other chart here: And the motnhly picture as you can see also looks very healthy. And this bounce here directly goes on making new all time highs. Quite different from 2000 and 2008. We soon shall see, but I just don't see a crash happening when everyone is shorting and expecting it. Market psychology is truly fascinating.
TVC:NDQLong
by SebastianofMoon
8
When will the SHOP craze end?SHOP has been on a tear since the crash in December last year, currently up 160% in the last six months. It’s easy enough to cry ‘bubble’ at a glance, especially when zooming out reveals a jaw-dropping 1600%+ return in the last 3 ½ years. The stock is experiencing growth that surpasses even AMZN, and in most ways appears to exhibit the same exponential increase in earnings. Comparing a bit, Shopify has not yet reached the revenue that Amazon was pulling in back in 2005, but at its current pace this will be overcome within a year. Prior to that period in the early 2000s Amazon saw similar increase in its stock price, followed by a long period of volatility and decline until half of those gains had been clawed back. It takes time for the gamblers to move on and for more stable investors to show up and provide a bottom. This is the growing pains of every wildly successful investment. Shopify is no exception to this principle. Currently where it sits, Shopify is twice as expensive as Amazon was at a similar point, but this makes sense given that we’ve seen the outcome of Amazon already and expectations are increased. My reservations about SHOP are entirely due to the pace of this stock’s increase, not due to the fundamental reasoning being wrong. I feel that referring to SHOP as a bubble is akin to calling Bitcoin a bubble. It may be experiencing a bubble for the moment, but it’s a natural event when logarithmic growth collides with linear systems. Events like this don’t end with the bubble bursting unless the timeframe of the evaluation is as short a duration as the hype and despair. The expected outcome for this stock is very different based on if we’re speaking of six months or six years from now. I’ve marked a few spots on this graph that I think are worth watching. The top arrow represents the line of the current trend. Breaking this means we will likely drop to the second arrow for a small correction. The pullback I’m referring to though is quite a bit larger. The 3rd and 4th arrow down are where I expect us to return to, and the point at which I would be willing to invest in SHOP for the long-term. The 3rd is the 200-day MA which would represent another solid leg up in the price, while the bottom is SHOP’s lowest trend-line which would come of frenzied selling. Overall from the numbers SHOP seems an incredibly solid choice, but I cannot buy into hype. Every moment of excitement is counterbalanced with despair, and the tab is being run up very quickly here.
NYSE:SHOPShort
by avidbrandy
1
Welcome to a Fraudstreet Just seeing this make you barf spyim not a perma bear i really want america to prosper but seeing this what make me barf, im not angry because i missed the rally and losse money trying to be rational, i know, markets could be more irrational that i can stay solven. There is always risk involved, but now i confirm that stock market is a complete and absolutely fraud. why? first the political side, all these rally was created and false trade ward with mexico, just when the stock market was suffering the worst may, but they create and trade ward and solve it in a week, just to hide the obvious, the data is not just horrible, look at last job report, they even downgrade previous jobs reports, and even wall street brag about the best week of the year? , now they make a deal with mexico and the new york times said that this was previously arrange months ago, just to hide the fact that things are not only bad at a global level, things are getting worse with china, and now they made the best week of the year, microsft rally more than 10% in 4 days. when is that happen ever before? looking for indicators Yen/carry trade has been always correlated about 95-98% to sustain rallys, if you look at charts we are at the same level that dic correction, and in may was 98% correlation, so magically they are not even correlated? no is 0.38? wtf is going on now. looking at money flow, the last 3 times we have these moves, corrections happen but these time is actually worst! more oberbougth that nov, dic, and march combine. im buying crazy puts just before the fed " cut rates"into weeks! crazy! idiots are going to make the market crash! hope you guys stay safe! becareful out these this is no man land!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kanon8260
2