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Bubble

The NASDAQ and Yield Curve Inversion Battle PlanTL:DR The NDX & Yeild Curve Inversion Pattern suggests that price is bouncing very technically and logically at a long term support trend line. The bubble phase will be complete when price action gets a lot of "white space" between itself and the trendline and the yield curve inverts again in about 2 years. Introduction There is definitely a lot of uncertainty in the market and lots of divergent and conflicting opinions. Lots of conflicting news as to why price could go up, down, or sideways. Ideally TA is suppose to help people see through the noise to make rational decisions in the moment you find yourselves in. A lot of this is pattern recognition and probabilities and sometimes, trite sayings to reenforce deeper lessons. Some of the first trite trading sayings sayings you could have been exposed to: The trend is your friend until the end So long as the music is playing keep dancing bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered Lets keep those in mind going forward analysis There are several stages to a bubble and adept traders and investors will be able to negotiate the market with some understanding of what phase the bubble is in. Generally, there is a fair value stage of the bubble and I have that in the orange channels on the NDX and orange zones in the yield curve portion of the chart. Both orange zones go on for about two years and show lots of uncertainty or even chaos in the financial markets. The late 1988 to mid 1990 saw the end of the Saving and Long Crisis which was a pretty serious event. Looking back the dollar amounts seem relatively small compared to the money that is sloshing around now. The 2005 to 2008 yeild curve inversons kicked off the 2008 financial crisis and it took years for the NDX to return to the swing high of the yield curve inversion. Eventually the uptrend increases its angle of assent and the blue trend line appears. This becomes our long term support and so long as price action stays pretty close to the trend line the bubble can inflate for years. During this time yield curve inversions drive price action back down to the blue trendline. So long as the trendline holds you have a very logical reason to buy. The music is still playing and the trend is your friend until the end. There are many pull back systems you could use to buy the dip technically. Below is the NDX on the weekly with the 200 EMA. Every time it has hit the 200 EMA since 2010 it has been an outstanding buy. It is super easy to set stops down there as well. Whether you like that or not it is a very technical buy and very justified. You can buy dip bearing in mind that "Bulls make money.... pigs get slaughtered" The blow off phase of the bubble occurs when there starts to get a lot of white space between the blue trendline and price action. Once that happens you know that price is going to go below that level because that is how bubbles work. Quite frankly, when I see the white space and the yeild curve inverts again it is basically time to close longs within the next 30=60 days. There may be some more upside but it will be at the end of a bubble, no point in being to greedy and holding to long. Generalizations I see the United States stock market going crazy for the next two years to the upside and then crazy to the downside for another two years. I don't see precious metals having their run until after a lot of the damage from the NDX bubble pop happens. Gold futures bottomed about halfway through the NDX bear market and i think it would be fair to see that happening again. I see crypto going crazy to the upside along with NDX and then having an even crazier downside and that would be the first true bear market for crypto that occurs with a NDX bear market. There is going to be a lot of pain and misery and lots of projects getting the Luna treatment. My linked idea on the XABCD Butterly will show that disaster scenario. My trades I have taken a shining to a couple of cryptos, some new and some old. I still like DASH, DAOUSDT looks good, Kadena looks great. I hope to beat as much money out of these coins while the music is still playing and then hopefully get out before the financial market seizes up again. I think that if things go well for 2 years and my targets get reached before then should be able realize the gains before any catastrophe makes my funds unavailable. Last thing I want is my trades and equity be used to "bail in" the exchanges so they don't have to pay me out.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by This_Guhy
52
🏘 Housing Bubble v 2.0: What Does It Mean for US Stock MarketMuch to the chagrin of would-be homebuyers, property prices just keep rising. It seems nothing - not even the highest mortgage rates in nearly 23 years — can stop the continued climb of home prices. Prices increased once again in July, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index , with 19 out of 20 markets measured showing month-over-month gains. In another reflection of ongoing increases, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says more than half of U.S. metro areas registered home price gains in the second quarter of 2023. So much for the idea that a "housing recession" would reverse some of the outsized price gains in homes. The U.S. housing market had finally started slowing in late 2022, and home prices seemed poised for a correction. But a strange thing happened on the way to the housing crash: Home values started rising again. NAR reports that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. Home prices in August 2023 rose 3.9 percent year-0ver-year to reach $407,100 — near the all-time-high of $413,800, and only the fifth time any monthly median has eclipsed the $400,000 mark since NAR began keeping records. The housing recession is essentially over, or has just began!? Home values have held steady even as mortgage rates have soared past 7 percent, reaching their highest level in more than 20 years in August. The culprit is a lack of housing supply. Inventories remain frustratingly tight, with NAR’s August data showing only a 3.3-month supply. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Interest Rates Turn Higher, as 200-Month SMA Key Resistance was broken earlier in 2022. Average Annual Mortgage Interest. 30 000 U.S. Dollars Rubicon is at the hands. After the Federal Reserve’s meeting in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters he was keeping a close eye on the housing market. "Housing is very interest-sensitive, and it’s one of the first places that’s either helped by low rates or held back by higher rates," - Powell said in the press conference. "We’re watching that situation carefully." Housing economists and analysts agree, regardless, that any market correction is likely to be a modest one. No one expects price drops on the scale of the declines experienced during the Great Recession. Is the housing and stock markets are going to crash? The last time the U.S. housing market looked so frothy was back in 2000s. Back then, home values crashed with disastrous consequences. When the real estate bubble burst, the global economy plunged into the deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Now that the housing boom is threatened by skyrocketing mortgage rates and a potential recession so buyers and homeowners are asking a familiar question: Is the housing market about to crash? 5 reasons ("cast in bronze") there will be no housing market crash 1. Inventories are still very low. 2. Builders didn’t build quickly enough to meet demand. 3. Demographic trends are creating new buyers. 4. Lending standards remain strict and impose tough standards on borrowers. 5. Foreclosure activity is muted: In the years after the housing crash, millions of foreclosures flooded the housing market, depressing prices, and it’s nothing like it was two decades ago. Funny, but all of that adds up to the one only consensus: Yes, home prices are still pushing the bounds of affordability. But "Ooh not", this boom shouldn’t end in bust. 😏 History does not repeat itself. But often rhymes. Technical graph for ECONOMICS:USSFHP - U.S. Single Family Home Prices illustrates there has been a while, without new all time highs in Top Four U.S. Stock market indices while Housing Bubble was exist in 2000s. So lets see, will be the same in 2020s or not, while 2023 is a second straight year without new all time peaks in S&P500 SP:SPX , in Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX , in Dow Jones Index AMEX:DJIA as well as in Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by Pandorra
S&P500 Crash: Trillions Vaporized in Titanic Fed-Inflated BubbleThe S&P 500 is facing a significant correction due to the potential bursting of the Federal Reserve's asset bubble, which is currently driving its artificially inflated values. Amidst signs of overheating markets, soaring valuations, and unsustainable monetary policies, the equity market is on the brink of a major downturn. The 2008 financial crisis, a debacle of epic proportions, wreaked havoc on a worldwide scale, decimating trillions of dollars in wealth. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic, an unanticipated black swan event, exacerbated the situation, warranting an even more vigorous response from monetary authorities. To offset these crises' debilitating effects, the Federal Reserve rapidly escalated its balance sheet from a figure shy of $1 trillion in 2008 to a staggering excess of $8 trillion by 2021. This monumental expansion was effected primarily via the purchase of government securities and other asset classes, essentially serving as the economic bellows to reignite the embers of the economy and replenish market confidence. My prediction lies at the levels waiting beneath us including the 2.618, 4.236, 6.854, and 11.09.... A notable Fibonacci cluster is at 2,400... onky time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
11
Navigating NVDA: A Potential Opportunity for Young InvestorsAs the world of technology continues to evolve at a rapid pace, few companies have captured the attention and imagination of investors quite like NVIDIA Corporation. Known for its groundbreaking innovations in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) and graphics processing, NVDA has experienced an impressive bullish run, leading to questions about its long-term potential. In this idea, we will explore the journey of NVDA, its recent price movements, and discuss why it might be an intriguing opportunity for young investors who are seeking to hold stocks for a few years. Riding the AI Hype Cycle NVDA's recent surge can be largely attributed to the AI hype cycle, as the company's technologies and products have become essential components in various AI applications. With a bullish breakout target initially set around $330, NVDA has already surpassed expectations , leaving many to wonder if there is still room for growth. Analyzing the Price Action To gain insights into NVDA's potential trajectory, it's essential to analyze its past price action. Back when the stock was trading closer to $180, I alerted to an inverted head and shoulders formation, indicating a confirmation for higher prices. Since then, NVDA's stock price has doubled, showing the strength of this formation. The consolidation period leading up to the breakout lasted approximately six months, while the breakout itself took around three months. These patterns indicate the potential for continued upward momentum. Elliott Wave Analysis Additionally, an Elliott Wave analysis was conducted, projecting an upside target for NVDA's wave 3. Remarkably, this target has already been surpassed, further supporting the case for continued growth. Following this analysis, the price action in late March and early April suggested the formation of a wave 4, potentially followed by a wave 5. If NVDA breaks above $420 in the short term, it could indicate a further extended upside target in the mid $500s . The Importance of Patience While the future looks promising for NVDA, it is crucial for young investors to exercise patience and understand the concept of market bubbles. Ideally, a retreat in NVDA's stock price over the coming months down to the $275 area could present an opportunity to enter the market. It's important to note that this anticipated pullback is a normal market occurrence and not a reason to panic. Long-Term Vision Drawing inspiration from Tesla's remarkable journey, it is conceivable that NVDA may experience a similar "bubble pop" phenomenon. In late 2024 or early 2025, NVDA could potentially reach prices as high as $1000-$1025. However, it is essential to approach such predictions with caution, as markets can remain irrational longer than expected. A Word of Caution When considering investment strategies, young investors should be mindful of the risks associated with options trading, particularly expensive, longer-dated options. It's crucial to thoroughly understand the intricacies of options before venturing into this market. NVDA's remarkable performance, driven by the AI hype cycle, indicates significant potential for long-term growth. Young investors who are willing to hold stocks for an extended period should consider NVDA as a potential addition to their investment portfolios. Remember to exercise patience, monitor the market trends, and stay informed about the risks associated with investment decisions. By doing so, you can position yourself for potential success in the dynamic world of NVDA and the broader technology sector.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bitdoctor
3
SPX: Denial on Denial.SPX: Denial on Denial. There are too much facts going on for anything else to happen than this. where should I even start. Highest debt ever above 140% for US. No increased debt ceiling. Yield curve topped out. Bonds needs to get bought. Inflation coming down harder and unemployment increasing rapidly. Core CPI is larger than CPI. harder for households. More house on the market than ever. Households are not getting sold. VIX expiration today 17e. Biggest expiration in QQQ, SPY, IWM, VIX expiration 19e this week. FED PIVOT is already here. When that happend in history, Recession has always followed. More outflow in stocks than inflows. Options is the only one saving the market till everything expire and the short bag is to great.
SP:SPXShort
by PivotX
2
"New bull market!" "Return to normal!" Bubble bust denial lolzFED "pivot" hopes won't die. Bank collapses are "good for the stock market". AI mania has the meme market looking alive again. NVDA, a company in which both revenue and earnings have dropped significantly over the past 3 quarters, is trading at 150+ P/E and 25xSales with a $666Billion market cap! We're "back to normal" folks! /s I LOVE how this classic Market Psychology chart lines up so well with the current NASDAQ monthly chart!
TVC:IXICShort
by RobBiddle
7
The Age of BubblesToday's world is a world of economic bubbles and rapidly changing technology. From cryptocurrencies to the dollar, from printing presses to centralized digital currencies, these are all part of our lives. However, with the arrival of CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) could be the beginning of the end of the bubble era. Currently, many investors and traders believe that economic bubbles are normal. Their creation can lead to rapid enrichment, but it can also lead to great losses. This is why some experts believe that we are in the age of bubbles. Cryptocurrency is one of the most famous economic bubbles in existence. It has quickly gained popularity, attracting many investors and traders. Over the past few years, however, we have seen its prices fluctuate, causing many investors to lose their money. This has made it clear that cryptocurrency is one example of an economic bubble. The dollar is another example of an economic bubble. Its popularity and impact on the global economy made it one of the most widely used currencies in the world. However, with the rising debts and budget deficits in the U.S., experts believe that the dollar could lose its stability and become another bubble. The printing press is another example of technology that can become a bubble. It can lead to inflation and deflation, as well as other problems related to the unequal distribution of wealth. However, there may soon be a solution to the problem of economic bubbles: the Central Bank Digital Currency. CBDC is a digital currency issued by central banks that is based on blockchain technology (or centralized blockchains haha) . It regulates and controls the circulation of money and reduces the possibility of economic bubbles. Since out of the chain between the central bank and the person will leave the private bank, which is what creates bubbles ( so the banks fall is inevitable) However, the emergence of CBDC could also cause some problems. Some experts worry about the possibility of limiting personal freedom and privacy, since the government would have complete control over the circulation of money. In addition, CBDC could lead to a technological monopoly unless there is full access and competition in the market. Thus, we live in an era of bubbles, economic bubbles, the dollar, cryptocurrency, and the printing press. However, with the arrival of CBDC we can hope for a more stable and controlled financial system. However, in order for CBDC to be a successful alternative, certain problems concerning competition, privacy, and accessibility must be solved. About ISO 20022 Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) can use ISO 20022 to ensure standardization and interoperability between different systems and participants in the payment infrastructure. ISO 20022 is an international standard for electronic data exchange in banking and finance. It provides unified formats for the exchange of information on payments, invoices, money transfers and other financial transactions. Using the standard ISO 20022 can improve the efficiency and reliability of payment processing in CBDC systems, as well as provide the possibility of interaction with other payment systems, which also use this standard. However, the specific standard used for CBDC may vary depending on the decision of each individual central bank. Many economists, traders and financial analysts are aware that financial bubbles are a problem that can economic consequences. They also understand that economics can work differently in different paradigms, so they explore new technologies, concepts and methods. In addition, many of them are already working with cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology and other innovative financial instruments, and therefore have an idea of how they can affect the economy and the financial system as a whole. Nevertheless, there are still economists who believe that financial bubbles are an inevitable part of economic life and that the economy cannot work without them. However, with the development of new technologies and approaches, this view is becoming increasingly outdated. In any case, economists, traders and financial analysts must remain open to new ideas and concepts in order to successfully adapt to the changing economic environment. Best regras EXCAVO
TVC:DJI
by EXCAVO
22
NASDAQ still has NIKKEI bubble biasNasdaq remains neutral on both the 1D and 1W time-frames (RSI = 53.821, MACD = 70.300, ADX = 31.405). The failure to cross boave August's High maintains the Nikkei bubble comparison that we posted a few months ago. As you see this Nikkei fractal since 1970 that led to the Bubble burst 1990 matches almost perfectly Nasdaq's price action from the 2008 Bubble until today. In order to invalidate this and a second year of Bear Market, Nasdaq needs to cross above the 13,800 August High and make a Higher High. Will it succeed? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:NDX
by InvestingScope
The Bubble Obituary The Fundamentals - Many investor favorites in the late 1960s & early 1970s were companies such as IBM, Xerox, and Disney which enjoyed PEs of over 35 in the nifty fifty bubble. In this latest stock market bubble, there were dozens of mid & large cap companies trading at over 10x revenues. Many unprofitable businesses even garnered over 6x Price/Sales ratios at the peak in 2021! The US stock market is extremely overvalued relative to historical valuation averages. Conservative earnings expectations for 2023 would place earnings dropping 10%-20% this year, in-line with mild recessions. The problem with mild forecasts is that the current recession gives no indication that it will be mild. GAAP Earnings for Q4 2022, excluding energy, are down over 8% YoY with companies issuing even gloomier forecasts for 2023. Earnings are likely to fall at least 33% from peak to trough using an average of the last 4 US recessions. - The subprime auto bubble is popping, with dealerships and lenders heavily exposed to subprime loans beginning to default. American Car Center, a subprime lender and auto dealer, recently closed its doors, highlighting the mounting pressures the industry faces. More defaults and business closures should be expected as interest rates stay high, vehicles fall in price, and car loan deliquinces rise. Subprime auto loan delinquencies are extremely high relative to their historical average even before unemployment has began rising precipitously. - Layoffs have spread to every sector of the economy, as evidenced by 2022 Q4 conference calls. The decrease in consumer spending globally is leading to lower exports and imports globally. High interest rates are decreasing business activity and profit margins are falling due to inflation & weakening productivity. The business cycle has turned and every sector of the economy is entering cost-cutting mode. These are all reasons for layoffs continuing in increasing volumes throughout 2023. - The US housing bubble is imploding. Sales volumes have declined over 35% from the peak. Mortgage purchase applications are the lowest they’ve been in over 25 years. Using data going back to 1952 from the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment surveys indicate that this is one of the worst times ever to buy a home. Home price declines are occurring nationwide. High office vacancy rates & high interest rates are leading to large bankruptcies in the commercial property market as well. This is already very acute in the mall segment of the commercial property sector. - The FED has been raising interest rates within an economic contraction which has historically always magnified economic downturns. The FED typically tries to raise interest rates in the early - middle stages of economic expansion, pause their hikes as the economic cycle matures, and begin cutting rates when the economy begins declining. In this latest hiking cycle, the FED waited until the economy began contracting before quantitative tightening and interest rate hikes even began! - America has one of the highest Private & Public Debt to GDP ratios in US History. The only other similar levels of debt in American History in the past hundred years were in the late 1920s & late 2000s. The economic contractions that followed were especially severe because of the high levels of malinvestment and debt which were deleveraged in those contractions. The level of malinvestment engendered by the FED’s suppression of interest rates in the 2009-2022 business cycle created one of the largest credit bubbles in history. Over 22% of the Russell 2000 are unprofitable and over 20% of the S&P500 are zombie companies. Many of the IPOs since 2017 (and especially since 2020) were/are unprofitable and are beginning to run into funding issues. This economic contraction is likely to eventually be classified as depression due to the continued declines in business activity and living standards for years. The Technicals & Correlations - Healthcare, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have all underperformed since December 2022. Inflows and buying from large money seems to have mostly dried up and retail investor inflows, short covering, and call buying are making up a much larger portion of the market than is typical. This led to a bounce back rally in Financials, Technology, Real Estate, and consumer discretionary stocks which also began topping out in late January. In late February 2023, all sectors of the market have topped out, show falling underlying momentum, and are trading at very weak volumes. This is a similar pattern that played out prior to the march 2020 crash, where many Industrials, Staples, Healthcare, and Utility stocks peaked out prior to January 18th, 2020; whereas many overvalued & unprofitable stocks didn’t peak until February 21, 2020. - Stock markets globally have peaked and are in the process of finishing their topping formations. Topping patterns began showing up as early as November / December 2022. Downside momentum is picking up now that interest rates globally are also beginning to breakout. The positive correlation between bonds and stocks has continued to remain strong since late 2021. - Commodities peaked in the first half of 2022 as price inflation continued rising and economic activity was still high. Commodities enjoyed a large bounce in Fall 2022 as financial conditions eased due to the bear market rally in stock & bond prices. Commodities have been exceptionally weak thus far in 2023, which is another negative signal for stock markets & business activity globally. - The bankruptcies of FTX & the Genesis lending desk, as well as increasing regulatory oversight, have continued to pressure crypto. With interest rates moving higher and the economy falling further, the speculative bubble that is crypto will collapse, likely back to being under 100B market cap for the total market with many altcoins going to zero and bitcoin dropping below 10K. Crypto has been a leading indicator for the market ever since their correlation began tightening in late 2020. The confirmed false breakouts and breakdowns all over the crypto sector are a negative forward signal for the stock market. - Total margin debt outstanding is still at an extremely elevated level. In real terms, margin debts outstanding are at comparable levels prior to the October 2008 crash & March 2020 crash. Insider selling is at the highest point that it has been in the entire bear market. The US dollar index’s negative correlation to the stock market was strong in 2021 but it became very pronounced in 2022. The US dollar’s rise against almost every other currency around the world since February 2nd is yet another negative leading signal to stocks. -Alexander Lambert I study over 30 countries’ markets and economic data releases. I also track the daily movements of over 750 companies and 15 different sector indexes. I have spent a tremendous amount of time on historical & economic research, as well as technical and fundamental analysis. I have been doing this for over 3 years and I generally spend between 65-80 hours a week on my work. Thank you for reading!
Editors' picks
SP:SPXShort
by Alexander_C_Lambert
32
Bearish Markets for next 24 months.This idea is based on a recent Kitco News Interview with Harry Dent. If are not familiar with Harry, he is an Contrarian Investor and Author. I have respected Harry's opinion, and more times than not, he is on the money. Pun intended. From this interview I put together a chart of the S&P 500 with an attempt to convey his forecasts. He is forecasting an everything bubble burst, and it going to get ugly over the next 24 months. Even Gold wont be a safe haven. Forecasting Bitcoin to hit a low of $3000. He suggest long term treasury bonds might be the only place to be when it gets ugly. Buckle up kids, the long term BULL market has officially ended. Its Bear season now! I put up my trusty fib overlay. If SP500 breaks that the typically strong 61.8 fib resistance, it will likely keeping falling to a full 100 or 110% retracement, based on my interpretation of Harrys Comments. We should begin to see a once in a generation buy zone in late 2024 or early 2025. Until then, go cash, BOND, or short the market. Harry Suggested Credit Investments, which I assume he means banking, credit card and credit industry stocks, and Bonds. He did specifically name 35 year Treasury bonds as an example. The US economy has been artificially pumped up using the magic of printing currency, trillions of dollars in fact. Which means the dollar has been watered down significantly. History has shown many time over, that this strategy will always eventually fail, 100% of the time! It always ends badly with high inflation, supply issues, countries begin to become very polarized in political opinions, and no one is willing to meet in the middle. The US economy has not been that great, but using smoke and mirrors, and a running the printing presses non-stop, has made it seem otherwise. Eventually it all works it self back to the median. Time to let go of your bullish sentiment and rethink were all the markets and economies are now heading. Time to get ahead of this.
FRED:SP500Short
by 4XRandalll
4
NVDA: The ultimate bubble stock?If there is ever a sign that there has been NO capitulation in this stock market, $NVDA has to be it because we still have uninformed reckless BTFD behaviour. Last night post-earnings price action was a case-in-point. Consider this, between Jan 2019 to Feb 2023, the stock has gone up c.8x while eps remains approximately the same at $1.76 for FY ending Jan 2023 vs. $1.70 for FY19. Yesterday, punters pushed the stock +14% to reward $NVDA for achieving 0.2% yoy revenue growth, a 1/3 drop in EBITDA margin from c.45% to c.29%, eps declining c.37% yoy. The end result is $NVDA current shareholders pay c.3% over US 10-yr risk-free rate for the right to own this stock and get 0% free-cash-flow yield on c.81x EV-to-T12M EBITDA valuations. Yes, AI is the future, $NVDA mentioned it 75x in its earnings call, but the numbers don't lie. In the meantime, after the +14% pop, price action is now at a 1.27x extension into a 0.618x retracement level with a key price volume resistance level and overbought MACD. The posVol indicator in the lower pane basically measures % volume traded in the past month that can be attributed to green days and yes, it is gone over the edge and is mean reverting. Good luck to those who dared, best of luck to those with patience, as usual, stay safe and happy hunting!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by WellTrainedMonkey