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Bubble

ETH wants this to be the bottom: Fractal similarity to BTCComparing the ETHUSD bubble pop from this cycle, to the BTC pop from 2013-2015, we can see some interesting similarities. I don't necessarily believe that this has been the bottom, it is only interesting to note the very similar behavior of those two different timeframes on two different coins. Market psychology is truly often very similar. Now, what does this mean? This means, that taking this comparison, we would have seen the bottom for ETH at around 80 USD. However, since I believe that BTC will dump more, towards 2000 USD, ETH will also go hand in hand with that dump and dump down to around 50 USD, thus probably changing this fractal a bit. Nonetheless, it is still interesting to see. ETH would like this to be the bottom it seems, but BTC doesn't agree. And since BTC gives the commands, I deem this chart to be of more entertaining nature.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by SebastianofMoon
7
BND Trendline Warns of Future DownsideBND bounced off a critical support corresponding to November 29th, 2007, the day that yields spiked after BND dropped and miraculously regained 7.5%. We see a downward trend forming in BND indicating a tendency toward rising rates while debts and deficits continue to set record highs. If the FED is not willing to significantly debase the dollar through record levels of monetary injection, the bond market will continue to drop. We are in the danger zone here, watching the bond market is crucial to timing the coming drop. I do not suggest going short until the following conditions are met: 1. Bond market drops considerably over any time frame (testing that critical level of pre-2008 crash or extreme velocity). 2. Stock market begins to face reality - depends on the velocity of rising rates (faster = sooner).
SP:SPXShort
by Derivati_Capital
1
If BND Ever Does This Again, Beware29th of November, 2007 - bond market experiences a flash crash which is quickly bought up by the FED in an effort to prevent widespread debt defaults. Worked for a few months only for companies to begin defaulting anyway, probably through a series of realized margin or interest spike risks. This is what caused the financial markets to implode in 2008. Watch and study the bond market, it can tell you more about medium to long-term market direction than any other indicator.
NASDAQ:BND
by Derivati_Capital
3
Shorters Dream - A Projection of 1st Qtr 2001 QQQThe price action we've seen since October looks a lot like the tech bubble of Y2K. The combination of mean aversion and valuation levels like this have only occurred two times in the past(1929,2000). Corporate buy backs and excess leverage(everywhere) where also traits of these historical crashes. Using the first tech bubble as a model, I've projected what might happen. Truly a shorters dream. This applies to both QQQ and SPY as they are rather synced right now and where one goes the other will follow quickly. IF .....it plays out in the same fashion then we will end the downhill run around April 4th or 5th(QQQ) at 117 and around March 25th for SPY at 215. Both, will ready for another furious bear rally at those points in time. Sort of scary... Hey, its an idea. We'll see.
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by not-abot
2
SILVER VS BTC BUBBLE ANALOGIn our BTC vs SLV analog piece we identified remarkable similarities within the charts. Trying to figure out the time frame of the consolidation area is key. In SLV, the timing of that consolidation period was over 3 months, however, the 500% rally also took 2.5 years. In BTC, the 500% rally only took ~9 months. With this scaling in mind, the consolidation period in BTC may be closer to ~1 month than 3. Any clues as to WHEN the next move occurs is critical when it comes to trading BTC Derivates, because in options, timing is everything! In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months. We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure. Over a month ago, we came out with an analog piece comparing the Silver bubble of 2011 to the most recent bubble of BTC. In the first week of December, we had compared the two charts stating that BTC was in a consolidation period that, if correlated on the same time scale as the SLV bubble, would break the interim lows of ~$3,200 between 1-3 months. We believe this thesis still remains intact which could mean seeing a break of the lows in the coming weeks. A 25% selloff in BTC from the current lows of $3,200 would be to roughly $2,400. If this occurs, we believe new institutional players will enter this space to start reallocating their assets and resources into Cryptocurrencies. Since BTC has first-mover advantage and name recognition, we think this would be the coin that "Wall Street" uses as an avenue to invest in to get digital asset exposure. Contacts Tim Kelly Founder and CEO tkelly@bitooda.io Brian Donovan Executive VP of Institutional Sales bdonovan@bitooda.io Dr. Ilya Kurland Chief Derivatives Strategist ilya@bitooda.io About BitOoda BitOoda is a digital asset advisory firm specializing in trade execution, market analysis, and structured products. For business inquiries, please e-mail info@bitooda.io
AMEX:SLVShort
by BitOoda_LLC
1
THE GREAT PALLADIUM BUBBLEWow I have been constantly looking for the next big thing after the crypto fury. I've found the gold mine. Or should I say Palladium mine? Even through a recession, the demand for palladium would theoretically stay very high. That in combination with the fact that now word of mouth is spreading and news reports are starting to come out. When fomo kicks in this could be a wild ride. Very oversold on the weekly here, Waiting for a correction in the coming months before more upwards action.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by MysteriousPersian
6
Dotcom bubble vs Canna bubble, Amazon vs Aurora, eye opening I went and compared the 2000 dotcom bubble burst to the 2018 cannabis bubble burst and i think there is a eye opening similarity. I see Aurora as a big player in the cannbiz but their delution on the shareholder will hurt the stock price even more. In my analysis there is a decline of another 50% to come and if you look at the numbers they forcast for their revenue Q2 2019 of 50 Mill. with a marketcap of 5 Bill. USD oh my, then you should absolutely keep a close eye on Aurora. In the future of pot I see them big but for now the investors will suffer some more pain and we might see the 2.50 again. I will acumulate on their way down and hold them for a long. Decline will probably keep going until mid 2019 Just my opinion so make your own resarch and like always May the markets be with you Follow me here and on Twitter @derfreietrader Thanks for your support
TSX:ACB
by derfreietrader
4
Bitcoin (BTC) And The Escape From Many TrianglesAlright, for once I'm going to post a short analysis. Just wanted to post a chart with these crazy lines I've been looking at. As I've been saying in my updates, I've been seeing some warning signs that we could be in for another leg down soon. Looking at this chart, you can see we have a GIANT diagonal resistance from the ATH peak to very near the current price. I think it has validity, based on how price has behaved every time it's touched it (we are now close to our 4th near touch). I'm using the Bitfinex chart here because even that crazy Tether fiasco pumped it EXACTLY to that line. If we somehow manage to get above it soon, we still have the other triangle resistances to contend with. This is not really a trade setup, although it does show an immediate target of 2K, or another 50% decline in price from here if we don't break out soon. I function better as an analyst, rather than a trader myself. I can analyze more objectively that way, even when I do provide trade setups. In any case, this is just to post some lines, and to see how price reacts to them in the future. The fact that the big line from the ATH has served as a selling point, makes it seem to me that the selling is controlled by computers. These computers may have calculated that the target price is close to zero, which means they will keep selling at that exact point. Obviously, this sounds a little crazy, I know. But this would explain why even human bullishness hasn't been able to save the market so far. If someone programs a computer to make the most amount of money possible, it could conceivably get stuck in this sort of loop. Sounds like SciFi. It's probably the fiction writer in me coming out. In any case, a 4th failure at that line would be a very bad sign. Of course, breaking out of that crazy resistance here above 3K would be a very good sign for the market! However, ETH has already failed at a major resistance that it hadn't touched since JULY! That's nuts. This analysis was longer than I originally intended. Woops. Definitely not financial advice. This is what i'm seeing in the charts, and I'm just putting it here for reference, or if anyone else finds it useful for some reason. Good night & good luck! -Victor Cobra
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by VictorCobra
The Tech Bubble May Be Over - GOOGLE Short!This will be a quick analysis. I did a much larger analysis of where I think the economy is going in my Dow Jones post (link at bottom). This is just an idea to illustrate the tech bubble and why we could have some pretty severe downside if this materializes. This is NOT the log chart, but Google hasn't been around that long, so it's not really necessary to use. Major supports are in green. As you can see, we're forming a pretty large head and shoulders amidst a double-top, which is a pretty strong sell signal. The weekly RSI looks pretty oversold, so we could rally up to the high 1100 area first to form a larger right shoulder before dropping. I guess we'll see. We could easily see a 50% decline from current prices though. If we do get down to the $500 zone, I will re-evaluate to gauge the market at the time. Setup: Short Below 1000 - Stop loss above 1100 Close around 920 Reopen Short below 920 to target the low 500 zone. This is not investment advice, and I am not a qualified financial advisor. This is just a potential setup I'm looking at for fun, and to see how it plays out. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by VictorCobra
Bearish Targets for MSFT (Microsoft)Here's another bearish tech analysis. This one is brief. It's pretty clear what the setup is. Either we have a double top, or we drop from here. Either way, once we drop below the recent low of around 93.67, we will most likely head straight down towards my target at the red "X," between $50 and $57. That's the only support level we have below. What's pretty scary is that if it heads to that target, the log trendline will have been breached, and MSFT can actually continue its decline to the next green support zone. Looks like a pretty obvious bubble here. The log graph for MSFT looks especially bad, with the log uptrend line lying so close to the current price (currently in the $60 zone). As soon as that purple line breaches, we'll likely be in free fall. This is not financial advice. I'm just posting these charts to see how accurate (or inaccurate) I am in the coming years. I could be very wrong, and I'm not a professional by any means. This is simply what I'm seeing in the charts. I wanted to do a few for the major tech stocks to see if I can get close to the bearish targets if and when the real bear market starts. People might be wondering why my targets are so low. It's simply that people are not buying tech as zealously anymore. People are satisfied with this current level of innovation, and are finally feeling buyer's exhaustion. If not enough people want to buy, then the price drops. I wrote a more in depth analysis on my DJI chart (linked below) -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by VictorCobra
4
Amazon (AMZN) Double Top or Straight Drop?If you read my DJI analysis, you'll know that I am bearish on the stock market right now, but particularly tech stocks. I've been bearish since AAPL was trading at $230 and as soon as it hit the $1 Trillion market cap. There's just not enough However, the market is still showing signs that buyers haven't given up, and the majority still seems to be bullish, at least in terms of retail traders. We might end up seeing a big double top playing out in some of these tech stocks. In AMZN, this means if we break out decisively above 1550, we may see a rise up towards 1800 before the full bubble pop. I expect the bottom of the bear market for AMZN to be anywhere between $500 and $600, but obviously this view will change, depending on market conditions. On the logarithmic chart, we have decent support near the $750 area (shown below), but on the linear chart we can see that this is forming a classic bubble structure. Remember, people buying AMZN during the 2008 crash made close to 60x profits at the recent top around 2000. Pretty insane. Even at current prices, the profits for these people are astronomical. Log Chart with potential bearish targets (red X's) If we break down beneath the orange steep rising trendline and below the 1300 price point, we will likely see a steep selloff, regardless of whether or not a second top happens. Potential setups are as follows: BUY 1550-1600 SELL 1800/high 1700 SHORT Break below the orange line or 1300. More short-term: SHORT break below 1500, with a target between 1300 and 1350. This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. This is a setup I'm looking at, and I'm curious to see if it plays out. Interesting times ahead indeed! Good luck! -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
Bitcoin- Looking at the bigger pictureI'm bullish on BTC in the long-run. But in the midst of all the short-term analysis and the formation of a bull flag in the past couple weeks, I think it's necessary to step back and take a look at the bigger picture. I believe that one day we're going to see a point when BTC reaches $100,000. It may seem like a far fetched idea but if you consider the significance and impact that blockchain will have on the global economy, it's pretty realistic. Also, looking at the history of the stock market, commodities and other means of value exchange, it gives me more confidence. But with such an exponential rise a bubble burst was inevitable. History has shown that many times. This year we've gone through a huge correction and many investors have left the cryptocurrency market. Most of the money left in this market, I believe, is smart money. Investors looking at the long-run potential of Bitcoin and altcoins. From February till November, BTC tested the $6000 support zone and bounced back numerous times, allowing us to believe that $6000 was the bottom. Soon enough, BTC broke below the support zone and now it's turned into a resistance. We're still in bearish pattern and BTC might plummet further, potentially taking us to $2000 then $1000 and maybe even, although I highly doubt it, three digits. I believe the best position right now is observing without bias. Looking out for horizontal movement, a cup formation, a clear accumulation zone. Then consistently dollar cost averaging your capital in a smart, calculated manner. Leave a like, comment!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SirBulltard
2
BTC cycles analyseMy ideas (cycles) There are 3 bubbles. End of the pump is a beginning of the dump. The first one has a length for 17 month. The second one - 34 month (twice increase). If the third one is also three times more than the second one, bullish run starts in summer 2020. _______ At the beginning of the was halving. The next having will be in spring 2020 twitter.com _______ Months to peaks of 1st, 2nd and 3rd cycles: 1st - 15 2nd - 4 (5 times faster) 3rd - 28 (7 times longer) 4th - 9 ??? (5 times faster) 4th high(130k) in spring 2021?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tavrik
Another Bubble forecast ;)An admittedly quite optimistic bullish scenario. I think we are right on track for the formation of another bubble a la April 2013 and November 2013. Notice how similar the runup from the low this year, has been to the July low last year. Then compare the astounding similarities in the RSI. Other people have pointed out other similarities between the three bubbles. Because the last bubble took longer to "deflate" compared with the one from April 2013, this bubble cycle will probably take longer to build up, hence we're a bit too late for the new ATH. Have fun! :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
4