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Bubble

Dow Jones + The rest of the worldThese are my views on why the Dow has probably topped out. All markets tend to follow the US markets which is why a crash in the Dow Jones will likely result in a crash worldwide. My arguments are presented below: FA: - Longest bull market recorded in history - US debt is worrisome +21B debt (dollar in trouble?) - Private debt ATH (particularly US student loan debt is worrisome) - Enormous geopolitical concerns (need I specify?) - Severe overvaluation of stocks - Interest rates have been on a steady rise - US imposing Tariffs TA (see chart): -Fibonacci resistance fan is hit every time a major crash has occurred since the crash of 1987 (confluence - see below) 1. Big Volume drop 2. RSI massively overbought (usually happens before crashes, see the downward trend) 3. VIX topped out (usually does before crashes) This is not financial advice - DYOR Yours truly //Pman
DJ:DJIShort
by Seriouz
3
Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day ChartOn September 5th I made a similar post comparing the daily chart to the 128 MA. It is much more detailed, however the conclusions didn't change much. The TL:DR of the previous comparison reads as follows: Bottom: $2,860 on October, 31st 2018 Range: $3,750 - $5,800 for 8 - 9 months Breakthrough: $6,100 on June 21, 2019 Because the RSI is not oversold and we are in a tighter coil than last time I expect a faster selloff and therefore a faster rebound. That may or may not mean that the price will go lower, that will depend on support, it does mean that I expect the target to be hit faster than the 1:1 comparison that I did on the chart posted above. There is no way to tell how much faster so I am going to stick with my prediction from the previous bubble comparison, for at least another week. Only continue from here if you are interested in my subjective view of the fundamentals about the USDT' situation. I almost always stick with technicals, because I believe that they reign supreme ~99% of the time. I believe that if there is news that will affect the market then it will be seen in the charts before it will be heard in the news ~99% of the time. I think Tether' is a very good example of that, there was a major selloff without the news that I would expect to back it up. There is always FUD' surrounding USDT' about banking relationships, Bitfinex, unbacked Tethers' etc. However, USDT:USD' has never broke 0.8897 in it's ~18 month history on Kraken and it fell to 0.85 on Saturday night. We have also never seen such a drastic premium on USDT' exchanges when compared to USD exchanges as far as I am aware. To me this represents big money making big moves, which would suggest that insiders know something we don't. There is a very good chance that I am wrong about that, and I will certainly not be making trades based on loose suspicions. However, I am trying my best to understand the situation and that is what makes most sense to me. Once I feel like I understand the underlying fundamentals of the market then I can get back to doing TA. I do believe that Tether is single handedly driving the crypto market right now. The premium remains on the USDT' exchanges and the USDT:USD pair remains in dangerous territory. If it cannot close above historical support of $0.98 in the next couple days then it will be ripe for another selloff. If that does continue to fall then I expect BTC' to moon on USDT' exchanges. This last pump came on Tether losing 14% of it's market cap and 12% of it's USD value (at it's low). At it's peak, that added 16% to the value of BTC:USD' + BTC:USDT' / 2 Therefore it is clear that a flight to safety from USDT' to BTC' would also cause people to FOMO in with USD. If Tether' were to legitimately go to $0 then there is no telling how high that would pump the price of BTC:USD' or BTC:USDT'. However, once people ran out of USDT' then there would be very few buyers at the inflated prices and a sharp reversal would be expected. If insiders had information then they already made there moves and now there could be a situation where I put technicals to the side. All TA that I have done would suggest that > $8,500 BTC' would = the next bull market. Before this weekend I would have been very confident in becoming bullish on Bitcoin at a price above $8,500. Now I would hesitate very much to make that same claim unless USDT:USD was ~1:1 on Kraken or unless the price stayed there for a month or two. I am currently shorting USDT:USD at $0.97. I view this as a very safe trade while waiting to buy back into BTC'. It everything stabilizes then I should be able to breakeven by buying back at support. If not then I have orders set at $0.85 / $0.75 / $0.5 and $0.01 to cover 25% of my position. While waiting for BTC' to figure itself out I think this is a great way to put my sidelined fiat to work.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Sawcruhteez
2
I really hope this fractal doesn't play out on netflix..We are seeing some early signs of bearish sentiment ... I have said multiple times in the past if we get some type of correction in stocks it will be because of overvalued tech stocks such as google amazon Netflix nvidia and many others.. I am not trying to call a top here! we still need to make more lower lows to confirm the trend but we are getting early signs of bad structure similar to the way the internet bubble was topping out . the spx could have a trend line failure and do a ABC or go for more legs up so we are just watching those levels But yeah I don't want this to happen cause it would mean lots of people loose money but also I feel I need to post warnings to watch for lower low patterns and more weakness so you don't get exposed to a 40% drop or something crazy like that. remember there are lots of kids Netflix and chilling these days but you can also still use torrents and hulu Stay safe and stay profitable out there.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by High_Altitude_Investing
pop goes the bubble.i checked this on the 6 monthly as well and boy it looks parabolic as hell. This is the monthly chart though. The signal is clear as bloody day for me. Finally my monthly indicators are literally ALL in unison. Simple bearish divergence on the RSI. Simple bearish divergence on the fast oscillator and collapsing close to the zero line - scary. Simple bearish divergence on the slow oscillator. Simple bearish divergence on the histograms on both fast and slow oscillators. It's as if the stars are lining up. I don't know about you. But I'm GTFO stocks rn. Come back in when poop hits the fan.
TVC:IXICShort
by EnZo
9
Dollar Index Ready to go to New HighsFundamentally , within the context of the current currency crisis experienced by emerging market economies, the dollar index is set to go to new highs in the upcoming weeks. Capital flights from weaker economies will pump into the dollar. This should have a strong effect on the valuation of the most important currency in the world. Turkey, Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Argentina and Brasil are perfect examples of the weakening of these market economies. For more information about these, please refer to: www.youtube.com . Technically , the DXY is set to achieve new highs around 101.84 points. This is a FIB level of 0.618 phi in the overall chart. We can see in this 4H timeframe chart a: 1. Descending Channel (red) after entering the 0.5 phi level between the 0 - 1 FIB level. 2. Consolidation/accumulation within the reversal triangle (blue) that pumped upwards. 3. An Inversed Head & Shoulders pattern that should pump upwards as soon as the DXY manages to break through the base of the pattern. Now, taking a look at the 1D timeframe chart, we can see the following technicals: 1. A massive Bullish Bat Harmonic Pattern. 2. A massive Megaphone Pattern. 3. A Falling Wedge pattern with the confirmed breakout. 3. A bear trap formed after the rejection of the 0.382 phi and the failed dumped of the megaphone pattern. This technical structure in the 1D timeframe fits and confirms the upcoming rise prediction of the 4H timeframe chart. Finally, looking at the 1W timeframe, we can see that the Triangle Reversal Accumulation Pattern the dollar had for about ten years, between 2004 until 2014, fundamentally coincides with the time the emerging markets got into US debt by accessing cheap credit fostered by the IMF among other international entities and institutions. P.S.: Considering cryptocurrencies are within a Bear Market, I am going to actively start posting charts about Forex, Indexes, Commodities and a Stock Bubble that I see forming in a country in the Americas. Follow me and like my idea to access this content!
TVC:DXYLong
by CoinMajesty
2
BTC: bubble/recovery analysis from an engineers point of view Hello everyone, First of all, thank you for reading. I tried my best to articulate my thoughts as well as possible. I would love to discuss this analysis with you, whether you are in favour or very much against my line of thinking. I am here to learn and make money, but first you have to learn in order to make money - and learning is best done by explaining your thoughts and reasoning to other people. Finally, please keep in mind that this is an engineers point of view, which tends to be exact. My analysis does not take into account factors like massive manipulation or the dumping of 100k BTC from MtGox/Silk Road, or other situations like this. Thank you and good luck with trading, Nick.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Cryptisan
2
Choose your Bubble fractal adventure...For my fellow crypto-pirates who lived through the 2013 double-bubble party on the titanic S.S. Gox, then clung to driftwood in the great Bear Sea for two years, there are two ways to judge where we're at on the charts: Either we're already adrift post-peak-bubble and bear season is hardly over (bulls have such short memories of how long bear season can last) -- or we just had the first correction and are about to launch into an end-year moon rally to complete the double-peak formation. Based on this completely arbitrary curve I've sketched (I didn't even try to calculate anything, so don't ask), and some dubious lines of trajectory, if we're on the double bubble track (pink) we could hit 80-90k by end of year, with the rocket thrusters kicking in September. If we're in the middle of the deep Bear Sea (orange), then we have easily another year of draining all the inflated air out of the bubble slowly, and the recovery rally won't show up until 2020. Either way, make sure you've got lots of rum, limes, and sunscreen, we're going to be out to sea for a while ;) what use do pirates have for lambos anyway?
BCHAIN:MKPRULong
by ronfkingswanson
23
2018: year of the "every market correction"?Hi traders, I am almost feeling sorry for recently posting so many negative TAs, but believe me if the markets were showing bullish signs i would post bullish TAs One of the few rare market i see with possible incoming bullishness is gold Btc is a bursting bubble, Amazon is possibly ending up its Bubble parabolic raising pattern (though the parabolic uptrend might not be finished now, it could have slightly more room to raise), exact same comment for Nvidia, Nasdaq Composite shape is not encouraging (lots of its listed companies are producing dangerous parabolic raising patterns, the list is very long), and of course the Dow is not looking good too (the pattern is very similar to the Nasdaq pattern). It is to be seriously considered that we could have this year a sort of overall corrective market correction as yes, i will say it, lots of markets and stocks are currently overvalued to very overvalued. Good luck and trade safe
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Giovi6969
3