Bubble
Anyone itching for some hopium? You'll love my newest batch!What if 2017 was more like the first bubble of 2013 and we are moving slower, not faster. Could that pink line will tell us where the next top is? Or what if we are at the bottom of a gigantic pitchfork and in the process of forming a Big W ?
Some math comparing the bubbles:
4/12/2013 = $45.30
4/10/2013 = $259.41
-82.53% in 3 days
Duration: 4/10 to 10/12 or 185 days
Bull run: 1/10 = $14.50
3 months +1,789%
5/19/17 = $2,000
12/15 =$19,671 +983.55%
2/6 = $5,931 -70%
50 days - 70%
2017 bubble was 54.94% as much gainz as first bubble in 2013.
If next one 54.94% of the second bubble (pink line) then
$1,163.70 = +449% from previous ATH’
$19,689 x 4.49 = $88,410 per Bitcoin
LONG BITCOIN TO BOTTOM AT $5K? History reveals hidden "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again" -Jesse Livermore. Despite claims that millennials are the most purpose driven generation, history shows they have failed to overcome the traps of speculation and investment. From the Tulip bubble(1634) to the Gold bubble(1980), we saw the psychology of fear and greed in market prices. Just when it seemed investors and traders have learned, then came the dot com bubble(1996) which was followed by the Real estate bubble(2008). In the middle of the financial crisis in 2008, A new technology was born, with a promise to end all financial crisis and restore trust to the financial system. Despite its disruptive and use case, we have found ourselves once again in a bubble which raises the question, "Have we ever learned from history?"
I will argue that yes we have. The fact is, regardless of the disruptive nature of any invention, markets eventually run ahead of reality, greed kicks in and then comes the dip. Bubble are arguably healthy for the ecosystem as it eliminate the "dump money" looking to get rich quick. They also create Technical entry points for long term investor. But how do we know when a market has bottom?
History has shown that most market crashes are likely to bottom at 75% dip on just below. Stock market traders use market sentiment charts to measure this. For stock trading, when the market sentiment index scale(0-100) reaches or drops below 25, it indicates a buy signal. Looking at the BTCUSD chart, price fall from all time high to $5000 or slightly below indicate a dip of 75% which shows we are left with 25%. Cryptocurrencies are a highly volatile asset class and thus, its very difficult to pin point the exact momentum to which the price will reverse. This for what it is, will serve as a technical point for a major reversal together with fundamentals at the given time.
BTC Explained - What If Bitcoin Has Bottomed and What Lies AheadDoesn't it seem strange that Bitcoin still has not undergone capitulation in its recent correction? What if Bitcoin has already bottomed? Odd as it may seem, a correction without capitulation can only be explained if the asset is actually in the Awareness Phase of a bubble. If you look at the chart above, we might actually be approaching the end of the Awareness Phase. This explains why price is picking up steam instead of declining to the lower lows. What if institutional money is already here and investors have been silently buying the dip all this time, taking advantage of panic traders who sell their precious Bitcoin under-priced? With CBOE's highly-anticipated ETF approval right around August 16th (not 10th), this perfectly-timed bullish catalyst could end the bear market and move Bitcoin into Mania Phase. Share your opinions below.
The London Housing Bubble, ChartedThis is the weekly chart of Savills PLC, real estate provider.
I rarely trade stocks, but sometimes I see an opportunity that piques my interest, because it a) has an interesting chart and b) fits into my fundamental world view.
In this case, I believe that housing is over-leveraged, and is 'affordable' only as a result of an artificially low interest rate environment. I especially believe this to be the case in London, which has been subject to an onerous property bubble, which will pop due to simple mean reversion, and Brexit fears.
SVS is my go-to vehicle for this trade. SVS has dropped like a stone form a multi-month consolidation, and it now coming into a support zone. A bounce is to be expected. A kiss of the prior consolidation support-turned-resistance would be textbook. I expect a rejection there, or lower, providing a continuation and measured move to long-term support.
I am short, and will look to add on a multi-week high.
Last Change To Sell Bitcoin - BTC/USDKeep your eyes open for the bounce, as this might be your last chance to sell before a multi year "grief" period.
Best case scenario - you sell, and use that money to buy back much lower.
Worst case scenario - you sell a bit early and decide if you want to enter a new breakout trade above 10k with a clear head.
Trade smart & make some money!
BTCUSD Bulltrap being set up by market makers?Yes, sir! I think so. Best case 5k, most likely will dump right through to 4k. Then relief rally (up to 7.8k), then big dump and bleeding to death, who knows where the bottom is? 1.8k zone decent chance, neutral case 3.3k. Worst case 3 digits.
This is the signal the current market makers have left on the historical chart for Bitcoin in my and many other analyzers' views. It seems they favored "white" cme us dollars $$ over any lambo and moon dreams you have.
Bubble still has not bursted in dramatic effect (some $1-2k instant red candles), that is still reserved for the near future. Bid side orderbook almost non existent up to 5k on the biggest crypto exchange in the world, even the static orders in total compose less than anything above $5.5k (the current trade zone), which means over 50% of the buy orders on bitfinex are the same traders who're playing each day - analyses performed on the orderbook and traded volume of bitfinex and bitmex last several months.
One huge capitulation candle can determine the faith of bitcoin to the likes of the gold and uranium chart, be prepared this is always a possibility (aka mt gox trustee or his clients selling their bags).
All my ideas are my own and this is not financial advice.
Have a wonderful summer!
Short the shit out of this bubbleAll bubbles are same.They go higher and higher and squuezed out all shorts and new Price targets come thick and fast.But think about this, Netflix is not an elixir of life.You just chill on a Saturday.Forget technicals and fundamentals for a minute if a stock is so valued why does it not reach 500 today? FYI all long term investors have exited now.
Here is my idea:
Buy 440 July 20th call: (Hedge)
This will cover your short term
Buy Sep 21 300 put
3 puts : 1 call
Accumulate puts on rallies and sell the calls
NFLX / D1 : Crash around the corner... Beware if you boughtHope this idea will inspire some of you !
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Kindly,
Phil
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The weed bubble is coming?There's some nice price action around the weed markets right now and Harvest One is no exception. The most obvious signal here is the RSI divergence forming right now. The price is settling way below ATH, and it needs some retracement upwards! Let's see if we will have a cannabis craze across the board.
This is once again a low risk trade like the one I'm currently holding in Aurora (Check it out!). This is because of the buy indications on multiple timeframes looking at the indicators.
I put in some conservative levels for the careful trader. A conservative buy would be above the yellow line, with a tight stop according to taste. Fib levels above are targets as usual. This is quite a new stock so the resistance levels are quite clear.
The Ichimoku is just waiting to show some level breaking and support forming above this price. The cloud gives little resistance so after a smaller breakout, it's touch and go! Not financial advice though.
Tech Bubble 2.0 About to BurstApplied Materials is a $50B market cap big player in the semiconductor industry. The current trend is probably why Facebook is starting to look at making it's own chips: www.investopedia.com
We can see in the 1 month view that we are in a meta bubble, an exact replay of the 2000 tech bubble.
Ride the wave, but get out ahead.
Second Bubble possibilityIf the flat phase happens this summer a bull market is likely at the end of 2018 and early 2019, and if big fundamental changes happen in the crypto-space (that could fasten crypto-adoption for example: fiat pairs on major exchanges and the removal of Bitcoin pairs, fiat gateways through tokenization, crypto-exchanges for tokenized traditional assets etc...) a second bubble is likely. For now the token mania has passed but we're still in a very irrational market, where many projects are launch while there is no demand: EOS, LISK and the hundreds of other cash-grab blockchain projects which bring little to no innovation yet billions in speculative investments. This shows that crypto is still in its very infancy.
As for Bitcoin, if nothing changes the bear market is likely to continue for several years:
Without changes in the fundamentals, Bitcoin won't stop losing value. It can't do many things and it does these things poorly (Bitcoin several years earlier was more widely used as a currency than it is now). What's keeping Bitcoin from going down is its network adoption, which is why its value will decrease at a slow but steady rate unless things change drastically.
$5400 Buy Opportunity Tomorrow?! [BUBBLE UPDATE]Hey guys. Update on the old bubble coin. I mean bitcoin <3 Its in free fall again. At least for now. I'm expecteing to buy back in early this week around $5400. Ride it back up on even lower volume and sell off at 7300 territory mid summer. I'm still a believer that we need to retest this major trend line on the log-scale before we can make higher highs. Might be a while but thats just how it is sometimes. Hope everyone inst too hurt. We are riding a bear but we'll tame her. Best of luck and Digibybe > EOS <3
With Love,
No_L