Bubble
Classic Bubble?I wasn't convinced about the crypto bubble till recently. I went and looked at the last few summers and there's always a bubble when students get out and then it fades as school becomes more serious. Fits some of the crowd I think.
Anyway. I looked up the stages of a bubble and felt these looked pretty accurate.
What do you think?
Bitcoin 2013 bubble fractal in playjust compare 2013 bubble priceaction with price now.. 2013 there was nearly an instant dump on the next weekly candle.. will watch this one closely.. dont wanna crush your dreams, but until now it doenst look good..
Why I believe we are NOT in a BUBBLEIf we recall back in 2014, there were very few ways one could invest in Bitcoin. Most of which left people feeling insecure of were where they left their money. At the same time, most of us even thought Bitcoin was the only "internet currency" out there, and was only used by criminals on the internet.
Well here we are halfway through 2017 and just about everyone you talk to, has at least heard of Bitcoin and/or Ethereum. This is primarily due to media, and how accessible it is. Instead of people having to go to some sketch site on the deep web in order to invest in Bitcoin, people can now do it easily online from their desktop or phone. Companies like Coinbase, leave a feeling of security after purchasing their first bitcoin. For the first time in history your parents and grandparents can easily invest in the world of crypto. For the first time cryptocurrencies have officially gone mainstream, we have banks, companies, and governments looking to utilize the blockchain. This is not the same as 2014.
So I believe this is not a bubble. Instead, we have established an entirely new market cap.. Which will likely undergo a healthy correction, to establish a new stable growth line.
Thanks and Good Luck All!
BITCOIN SINCE INCEPTION vs ETHEREUM SINCE INCEPTIONI believe Ethereum can soar a bit more, but it is about to touch the top of the channel, so I believe this bubble will pop soon. Maybe it will reach 0.22 btc, but It is obvious for me that it needs a correction.
Another sign of the "Ethereum bubble" is that every Ethereum Maximalist (I love calling them this) really believe ETH is going to replace BTC, the same way that Bitcoin Evangelists thought that BTC was going to replace Fiat back in 2011 (and again in 2013). This means we're in the "New Paradigm!" phase.
Ask yourself where does the demand of ETH come from, is it because of the state of the art of Ethereum or because of the I.C.O. bubble. IMHO I think what is driving this madness is the demand for I.C.O. tokens. But soon, a whale that has nothing to do with these people will cash out (Just because ETH is overheated), and these people will start panic selling in order to fund their projects. This will be the burst of this ETH bubble (the second one), and will drag Bitcoin price down. If you check the timing, you will see that BTC is about to reach a resistance just in time. The red dashed line is placed when prices will reach their corresponding resistances.
Will this be the end of ETH? Probably not. And I will buy ETH whenever the price drops to the bottom. I don't really know when this event is going to happen but remember... last bubble bursted when a whale named Lord Vitalik sold 25% of his eths . :)
Anyway, here you have my chart of the whole history of both coins and you can Zoom in and take your conclusions.
Happy tradding!!!
XBTEUR: To the gamblers, latecomers, and bubble chasersI think it's a good time to reevaluate divesting from crypto once again. We have considerable risks, yet no one even bothers thinking about them. Anyone aware of fundamentals knows that we can see some nasty scenarios in the coming weeks and months. I would reccomend taking a break from crypto, and for instance, holding only 25% of your capital in it, be it in the shape of some cryptocurrency or cash at exchanges. The former induces risk from potential volatility to come, the latter, from 3rd party risks. Either way, it is a risky proposition, so however you look at it, try to use reason, and not emotions to decide how to protect your wealth. Upside vs downside risk favors being in cash, or even short. Fundamental risks, and sentiment extreme in BTC, and the broad crypto markets make me think the technical setup is likely to materialize, and that we can get a correction any time soon. Perhaps after June 16th, since that is the earlierst known date where we might encounter 'scaling risks'. After August 1st, some risky scenarios might ensue, some of which could cause difficulties to exchange operators, and all of which can cause this market's value to decrease significantly.
The technical chart called for a rally to 3000 euros, by the end of Dec 2017, or sooner. In this case, I could assume that we have two main scenarios going forward:
#1: The time duration of the rally is valid, and we get continued upside. This doesn't imply a correction won't happen. The market can take many detours before finally topping by year end. Sentiment and shorter term signals would be our guide, to navigate trends while risk/reward is positive in the short term and sentiment still negative or neutral. Sentiment is extremely bullish now, which is a contrarian signal and a cause for concern for any astute investor. In this positive scenario, we get a healthy correction during this time and going into August events, and maybe lasting for a while longer until sentiment resets, everyone panics and we bottom in the weeky timeframe again. Then we launch into a rally for the duration of the year again.
#2: This was IT, the crypto bubble peaked, we get a nasty 2 year+ correction or consolidation akin to 2013 to 2015. If this is the case, which I fear might be, we might never hit the 3000 euro mark or we hit now before the time expires for the long term rally. This could easily form a top any time soon, and the fundamental events to come would exacerbate the selloff causing the newcomers to lose all their money, longs to get margin called, maybe some exchanges to go bust, and then get a continuous chain of negative events, and increasingly negative sentiment...some possible events include problems after the scaling solutions are implemented in BTC, ETH facing technical design problems that cause the rally in it to peak and massively decline back to monthly support at 11 eur after PoS gets delayed again, China to regulate ICOs, maybe harsher regulations take place broadly accross crypto markets globally, etc.
People should be wiser investors, and not gamblers who chase momentum. This never ends well, or at least is not a wise investment strategy. The insanity in sentiment has made people very critical of my work, I get ridiculed, insulted, mocked often. When all is said and done, I might be proven right, to the permabulls dismay.
Disclaimer: I think BTC and cryptocurrencies are of tremendous utility in the world, and a new asset class in their own right. I would like to maintain 25% exposure to this market at all times, but it's wise to diversify into 3 other asset classes to store and grow your wealth. (local and foreign stocks, bonds/gold/silver, cash, real world businesses/passive income sources). Specially after a huge win in one market, pour the gains into equalizing your exposure in other fields.
Still Further for $LTC $BTC $ETH to Fall?Hard to say whether LTC/BTC/ETH are continuing to drop or if they are rebounding at the moment. One thing for certain is that these currencies are linked on the exchanges. When one goes up, they all go up, when one goes down, they all go down.
We might sink a bit more before recovering to the mean: ghoffarth.wordpress.com
still HODLing a-long and collecting more coins at the dips--buying all the way down and holding long term :)
tipping jars:
ETH: 0xAA33bAe03131f3aa36e1de3e4bD53583c41F8d64
LTC: LeMkJv1Xoxnt2YvRgKkNZZJRgZYgGzcSyv
BTC: 1CWDM7dYLoBwJyf2kbGANAmuySwFWC2NZu
Official theme-song for Litecoin:
www.youtube.com
Theme-song for $CRYPTO in general: www.youtube.com
BTCUSD 4HIn my opinion BTCUSD is going to move down, 0.618 or 0.5 fibo is possible.
Please pay attention to the oscillators at the bottom of the plot.
"!" marks indicate places where price moved down to be supported by the green EMA line.
Please check my other predictions of cryptocurrencies , ETHUSD:
Small thoughts about this possible correctionIf it's really just a correction afther the bubble, I think it's probably going to follow the past months behavior.
Reliving 2012?Will BTC follow its path to the moon? Predict consolidation between 1600-2400 for the following 4-6 months and moon like 2013 once we have "scaling resolution" and SegWit activated (and all justified FUD of a contentious hardfork behind us). LTC SegWit moon should follow because of sidechain usefulness for cross-chain atomic swaps, transaction speed and lower fees for microtransactions with non-competing ASICs SCRYPT mining - predict 0.25 BTC per LTC till the end of 2018. These 2 coins together shall be enough scale to cover the entire globe and avoid a unnecessary hardfork that would make Bitcoin less secure by promoting centralization of nodes and alienation of the users. BTC and LTC shall remain P2P money for people to transact between each other globally without the need of any 3rd party if they wish.
bitcoin short Bitcoin obviously left rational / sustainable prices.
And it may have got 4 times the amount of active users as in 2014 ? (according to blockchain.info)
- But then, do we need to reach 4 times the price of 2014?
Now users have different demografics. Back then it was coders/developers, and some who believed in bitcoin and also gamblers.
probably richer in average (more bitcoins per person.)
2014 was people still not trusting it as much as now and needing or wanting to leave more than now (New miners and others) .
and others feeling like it was just a game. And some people not willing to give away any - at any price before $10 billions in marketcap or so, which seemed enough in 2014,
even expecting fast developments, leaving enough opportunity to buy back cheaper.
Yet it went above $14 billion for a brief moment so another 40%
Today people are here more permanently and more people. And poorer people.
They are more rational because it is necessary. They may bought 0.1 Bitcoin for $60. Sell it for $250. Buy it again for $125
I know even silver does some weird charts for example
- but the bigger bitcoin gets the less likely is parabolic shape!
Parabolic shape is basically just a Ponzi-Party (next to some real new fans and capital)
- And exploring the equilibrium in minds:
What should be the maximum now? - Thats all.
So what should be the maximum?
Bitcoin may has only got ~70 times fewer active than paypal but bitcoin users do 20 times the volume per person in $USD
Because it is cheaper, they can move it between wallets. Or anything. And some bought it cheaper.
so bitcoin could be worth half as much as paypal now = $30 billion
it is far, but doesnt look that far anymore either!
that is where Bitcoin paused for some days this time (at $30 billions)
Of course it has potential to grow many times, but all other Crypto currencies may have too...
So that may be just be the right amount for now.
And it already tried another 40% again too right now ($42 billion)
But this time it may be even faster?
bitcoin may have dozens of millions of active users later, like paypal or even as many as visa, or more (including "the unbanked")
but by then the price will be much more stable too.
Gambling may level itself out sooner through advanced / leveraged trading which was not possible/common in 2014
Option 2 (pink): Bitcoin could go more than up vertically (above 100% slope) - so even go backwards in time and leave space?
Ripple XRP !double top!Lets finish this:)
please include reasons/explanations in comments
( but refrain from un-reasoned pump&dump-talk)
thanks!
RIPPLE SHORT Obviously Short after >35x in dollar value.
Enter for some weeks or days to come.
Keep in mind you can hardly catch the top, the best moment.
Acting rationally collectively we can improve the state of crypto
and reduce the amount of squeezes, forced liquidation victims due to price manipulation and gambling hysteria.
Ripple code saw 3 times fewer developers (code contributors) yet than Dogecoin. 5 fewer than Ethereum and 20 times fewer than Bitcoin - Only Stellar and Golem saw some fewer Developers than Ripple just yet.
"More and more banks" (vs. "how many banks quietly are undecided or decided against ripple already?)
"Lock in rumor" : Weak attempt for another second pump? Wouldn't hardly matter much, nor very long term, if it was true.
"More down to earth than Bitcoin" : Other Cryptos also target business customers but most crypto seems to be in a bubble now and Ripple the most.
Stages of the Ethereum BubbleI think the current rise in ETHUSD price perfectly matches the Famous 'Stages of a bubble chart'
Euphoria is coming..."The current rally on cryptos is unstoppable", "everybody is a genius", "we are all getting rich", does it remind you of something we have heard before?
I have the feeling that the thrill is on and that we may reach euphoria with a final grand move and bust, and after watching Marc De Mesel's latest video (www.youtube.com) I drew that little chart to sum it up...
So where do YOU think we are? And do you have a plan for what is coming? :D
Nuts Idea but time to short TeslaDespite the monster breakout on Tesla I feel it has hit the top of a trading channel and is with a rising wedge. The momentum has carried the stock despite dire earnings and false promises. Intraday volume shows pressured selling at the top and a break of the inner wedge should see the price collapse. Expect all gaps to be filled on the way down at to be trading below 280 with further extended downside towards 200. This will be a monster move.
Short DASHDASH price has become MASSIVELY over-inflated into a giant bubble which has now burst.
Yesterday Bitfinex added BCC and BCU tokens to allow traders to speculate on the future price of BTC and BTU respectively (these tokens will then be fully-convertible post-fork).
Currently BCC (BTC) is surging ahead. This will lead to downward pressure on DASH which has been boosted in price partly as a speculation on BTC price crash.
It now looks likely that a hard fork will result in BTC maintaining a healthy price and market dominance and thus the bullish exuberance in Alts is near to run its course.
ETHEREUM POTENTIAL FRACTAL BEHAVIOUR¿Is the history repeating again?
With more and more institutional money jumping into ethereum, more usd-based volume, and being able to recover from a lot of troubles and building a strong support at 7$, could be ethereum headed to bitcoin ATH's repeating its behaviour of the "great ethereum bubble" back in january 2016?
Not margin trading at all this kind of set ups, but if ethereum pull backs to 0.016-0.0165 i will scoop some at those leves.
dji - crash The dow jones industrial looks sure for a big crash!!! with yellen raising rates next week CMF at extreme +0.50
S&P 500 target 2350-2400 in the year 2017The raging bull market extends further into the year 2017, after the "Italy" referendum was shrugged off.
There could be another pullback after the FED meeting this month, but after this super bullish market reaction to the situation in Europe (even if manipulated by the ECB) I see the risk of a new crash diminishing and the opportunity to extend the overall rally into a mega-bubble increasing - based upon the end of the earnings recession in the US and the end of the stock market crash in China and Japan growing again, too.
Entry: 2180-2200
Stop loss: 2170
Target: 2350-2400
Risk: 10-25 points
Reward: 150-220 points
$BTC testing highs and why USDCNH mattersBitcoin highly correlates with Dollar pair volatility these days, these are signs the market has matured a lot. Which makes sense since the CFTC considers it a commodity these days as more CFTC approved derivatives are on the way. US largest trading partner is China, any market correlation done on any asset if you ask me starts with capital flow from those areas, Europe is a close second which is why you're seeing great coordination between central banks in these economies.
I believe the breakout into ATH's on Bitcoin will go together with the continuation of the USD bull market. China is hugely Dollar hedged which is why PBoC will simply keep fixing CNY down to benefit off this.
