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NVDA: Short in 3 days on closeI'm looking to short $NVDA here, but need further confirmation of the top. If we get a smaller range day today, and we see a new daily low after that, or if we get a new daily low right away tomorrow, I'll short a half position then, risking $10.86 per share. I'll start building a position after tomorrow's close if the range is smaller than today's, and spread the selling over 1-2 weeks. Alternatively, if we see that within 3 bars, price doesn't hit 107.97, we'll get a low risk short signal, which would be a good confirmation of our fundamental thesis. You can check out the post by @michaelgoldin on the subject, he spotted this trade during one of our conversations at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by IvanLabrie
4
Deep ITM Put on AMZNIt may be too late to jump in on this one, as the risk is about $20/share in option value if it turns against us.However, if you can stomach that kind of risk and have the capital, a .75 Delta ITM Put with 2-3 months of time value could win big. Today's slight rebound allows for an equivalent entry to the closing price from 11/10/2016. Trail your stop to the Red line. Oscillator divergence supports the end of the long uptrend from earlier this month as well as an awful earnings report with supporting negative sentiment at this time (that doesn't mean it can't change on a dime). AMZN is a stock I personally avoid due to the psychology of it being an investors' "Sweethart". My personal opinion is it's one of the biggest bubbles of all time waiting to burst. Now could be the start...
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EdgeAnalytics
2008 patch dyingHi everyone, Last week we saw the fed deciding not to raise rates. Many are saying that this is not important, that 0.25% doesnt make the difference. Lets analyze why it does matter. 1) After 2008, the only way to recapitalize companies was to give free money away, thats why they implemented almost zero-interest rates. At first, it went all well, growth went at the same pace than prices. But right now, we are seeing an scenario were everything is expensive, the everything bubble market. They know this, and they take advantage of it, why are we going to raise rates if any other investment is also bad? The problem is that the further they keep rates low, the bubble increase in size. I have to recognize this to trump, which stated that the fed is only taking a political decision, with the clear example he said for instance, REIT companies are having a party with this kind of rates. 2) Then we have the oil market, where an agreement to cut the glut has been already on the table for over a year and who knows if they will finally agree on something.. We know that US has an extraction cost of $ 38 per barrel (average) , if they increase rates, dollar will tend to valuate, pushing oil lower, yes, overtime it will tend to find its real value upon costs, but in the meantime it would create a huge turbulence. 3) Emerging markets such as brazil or argentina are already on a very high interest rate, if rates were increased and yield-to-maturity increases on the US, this will be directly reflected on this goverments which will cause turbulence also there 4) The stock market in the US is highly overvalued, yes of course you will find one or two stocks which are with good valuation, but overall their not. If you are a fed supporter, then you know that yellen said to expect a 1% grow on a year basis, the question is, do you think that companies and earnings will grow at the same basis? what about stock prices? 5) Add to the stated arguments, that if they raise rates, and there ir turbulence in the market, DB will face much bigger consequences because of its high exposure. The most recent quarter, we saw many companies surprise on earnings release, but there is something important to notice.. they surprise cause expectations where low, on a YoY basis, they werent so good. As a conclusion, They have to increase rates, but nobody wants to do it cause the guilt will fall on them. I see a correction at least to 198.65
AMEX:SPYShort
by GabrielMellace
3
XMR - Monero | Bubble Pop ScenarioDemonstrated here, we see Monero's tendency to make 76.4%, 61.8%, and 50% retracements from the tops. After a tremendous rally, this scenario assumes that the move under the 0.0185 BTC level has signaled the end of the rally and the start of a trend reversal. Drawing a fibbonaci retracement from the all time low to the high at .0185 BTC shows the the 1.272 level (and the wick to 1.414) as a likely point of reversal to the downside. Areas to watch for support are 50% from the current top (~0.013 BTC) and 61.8% from the top (~0.01). A continuation of the uptrend in BTC should solidify this position, with XMR showing signs of an inverse relationship, Any large events in the BTC space that could cause a steep decline in BTC could invalidate this reversal to the downside in XMR, or cause a quick spike to double top at the ATH and then continue downwards.
by Lechango
1
Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rallyPick your poison, I mean your favorite bubble: real estate (Vancouver's housing bubble) student loan debt tech stocks and startup unicorns bonds I just picked some random news articles for each bubble. In case I forgot one major bubble please tell me in the comments. Real estate: Chinese Media Warns Canada's Housing Crash Will Put U.S. To Shame www.huffingtonpost.ca www.advisorperspectives.com www.advisorperspectives.com The $1.3 Trillion Student Debt Bubble marketrealist.com www.advisorperspectives.com Tech: We've officially reached the last stage of the unicorn boom www.businessinsider.com US hedge fund giant warns of 'biggest bond bubble in history' www.telegraph.co.uk www.marketwatch.com Here are two bearish scenarios: A "the pullback" and B "the crash": Short entry A: 2175 (or 2185) points Target A: 2025 points Short entry B: 2160 points Target B: 1850 points Stop loss: 2215-2200 points
FX:SPX500Short
by ChartArt
8
Bubble Watchlist: 7 Energy CompaniesI found a couple of price correlated energy stocks which look like they are in a massive uptrend (bubble), but the very recent direction is down. Therefore I recommend to watch these stocks the next weeks if they bottom very fast or decline further towards the supporting average trend direction of these rapidly growing price trajectories (and then maybe rally even higher). The stock with the largest uptrend so far is NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) which is colored on my chart in bright lime green. These seven stocks are: NEE - NextEra Energy DTE - DTE Energy Co WEC - WEC Energy Group Inc XEL - Xcel Energy Inc CMS - CMS Energy Corp LNT - Alliant Energy Corp CNP - CenterPoint Energy Inc Related news: - NextEra Energy Stock Closed Down, Govt Investigating for Manipulating Market www.thestreet.com
NYSE:NEE
by ChartArt
What does it all mean?Remember that AUDJPY SPX correlation that was so strong last year? It's completely broken down. When the AUDJPY fell in sync with the stock market that usually signified that there was a market move from risky to safe haven assets. Lately, even though the AUDJPY has fallen and stayed flat, the stock market has rebounded strongly and threatens to rise higher. What does this all mean? 1. SPX is more resilient meaning that it offers the best return. With earnings falling it is creating a bubble where the fundamentals and risks don't match the price. The AUDJPY represents the true level of fear in the market. 2. The AUD and Aussie bonds is less attractive with the RBA dropping rates, political and economic uncertainty. Commodity prices are still low. 3. The stock market isn't as bad as the negative sentiment going around. Market is correctly priced. 4. Short squeezing. Meaning that short sellers are closing their trades or hedging. 5. Bargain hunters. Traders believe that the drops represent profitable opportunities. It's probably a combination of all these factors, but what I really believe mostly is happening is that foreign buyers, such as those in Asia, specifically China and Japan (who have no faith in their own markets), and European investors where euro stocks are much riskier, are pumping their money into the American stocks. This is creating, certainly imbalances that can only be solved wen Americans start participating in their own markets. When Americans start investing more strongly in their own markets, the Fed will likely raise rates. When they raise rates, there will certainly be a period of volatility but this will just be an era of rebalancing. In any case, I believe that the market must go down before it goes back up.
FX:SPX500Short
by maccabean
The new beginning of a Fractal?So now we come to a point in time with this consolidation at $400 for deciding the trend for the next several months. Quite an impressive triangle has formed and we're drawing it out right to the end - the break of this will dictate the trend for months (or maybe even years) to come. But I have discovered a small fractal within the overall beartrend since the $1200 top two years ago. Both have wyckoff's, both have a high level of altcoin activity and people looking to gain additional return on the BTC they are holding. But last time, it ended with people cashing out and leaving this market, will this time be different? ™ A break of the broader triangle would lead to a $240 retest, and potentially could trend us down to new lows. A break up would imply $680 be tested, and if broken could lead to new ATH's because it would be making continued monthly highs. Bubble target would be $4800 (my guess based off the wisdom of the crowd). So lets see where we go. Hopefully this is a little more clear than my previous (linked) chart I made comparing bullish bubble cycles back in 2014 at this same period. Now I'm going to give comparing bearish cycles a shot.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by lowstrife
6
Bitcoin attempt to pass the rubiconThe chart shows the most important Bear Trendline since December 2013 bubble. It can be connected on all 3 major chinese exchanges by using a line magnet Recently BTC has built support just above the trendline at around 2880 CNY. Possible top of the trend 3030 CNY. When broken double top on the triangle will be confirmed. We fall back into the long term Bear Trend. This will inevitably lead to capitulation and despair. Possible scenario: - Hammer on daily when the bull trend is broken - Look at my related idea Bitcoin Bubble.
BShort
by dump
ETHBTC ANALYSING THE BUBBLE4 months consolidation phase spawned a considerable liftoff that exceeded my expectations and made me turn my monitor vertically to inspect the full height of that pop. What's next? Cyclic nature of open-ended markets entails the never-ending torrent of repeatedly changing accumulation phase and distribution phase in such a way that the end of an antecedent phase corresponds to the beginning of a new phase. At first blush, eth has all signs of staying in the distribution phase known for its inherent danger of a higher negative volatility. The axis of a symmetry connects the 0.00215 BTC floor with the 0.0372 BTC top bar separating two equivalent 70 days time periods that map a triangular shape onto a 140 bars bubble. Fibonacci spirals and timezones agreed in setting the point at which the market sentiment may retreat to 05.22. I would anticipate a strong slump until then. As demonstrated by fibonacci timezones the bubble was highly coordinated with btc news events and halving rumors made the latter affect the direction of the overall trend. This market was timed in the simplest way that it effectively consolidated many reasons for railing south into one. 1. Valve is on and will be adding btc to steam. 2. Segregated witness is a pending pull request. 3. New release of bitsquare. 4. gbtc has seen a surge in value. Eth wont defend its value against btc hype elevator. My verdict: I forecast 0.01066 BTC in the coming days and likely 0.006 BTC before the end of may.
Short
by heglassedme
2
Nasdaq, what the FAQ?When is this rally short covering rally going to end? It already has. It's just bounced off monthly resistance. But besides this, how do you know it's the end of the rally? Surely the there must be more than one technical indicator? Well you're right. A crossover of the MACD and a break below the upward trending support would confirm this rally is over plus a dip below important MAs such as the 200 period. What about the fundamentals? Isn't China and Euro free money investors buying up US stocks? Well, this has probably contributed to the recent rally. Though if you're reading about it in the papers, the spending spree is most likely over. They aren't about to advertise their intentions and then act on it at a premium. I'd say Euro investors are going to be looking at Euro stocks as a priority. The US produced an excellent job report IMO but PE ratios but other economic data is poor meaning PE ratios are probably too high. I'd say Yellen will raise rates this Summer unless her mandate has shifted to propping up stocks instead of reducing unemployment. Is the market in a bubble? Yes, absolutely. Cheap money, QE has created excessive risk taking and ridiculous valuations. Id say we should be looking at a minimum 25% drop until the end of the 2017. Once the oil companies begin to close, that's when the poo will really hit the fan. I recommend reducing exposure to stocks. China is still very problematic and so is the Euro zone Yellen even is worried. One way or another, something's gotta give and the equity rally doing so well in a period of concern is suspicious. Either rates rise and the market falls, or PE ratios fall, or growth falls, or earnings drop off. Either way, it can't continue much longer.
FX:NAS100Short
by maccabean
Bitcoin Halving PumpAs you probably know, Bitcoin's rate of inflation (block reward) halves in early July to 12.5btc. This will halve the revenue of miners. As miners are in control of the network and presumably a decent chunk of the liquidity, the idea would be to manipulate prices upwards (x2) to keep revenue intact. Bitcoin has recently shed a lot of big holders because of the blocksize debate and perceived centralization, with most moving into ethereum rather than fiat as they would prefer to stay in a cryptocurrency. This can be seen as capitulation without having to crash the price of Bitcoin itself. The fact that the price has not collapsed in the face of this crisis shows these fundamentals do not have as much impact as most people think, suggesting market manipulation most likely by the hands of miners. The chart above should be a self explanatory. We will move in a fractal of the previous two cycles. the similarities in stages are obvious so I won't waste my time numbering them. If you want more analysis, check my related ideas.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Path