Get started

Bubble

Bitcoin: A Longterm OutlookIt might take a couple years before another rally. The next 4 months I expect price failing at the red trend line and coming back down to 220-300 depending on how strong demand is there and therefore if it's worth for whales to try running the stops bellow 230. The 800-900 target is derived from meassuring the distance at the widest place within the triangle, and projecting that same distance (150%) from the (expected) breakout point upwards.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by MagnusTradingGroup
20
China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves China Bubble with Symmetrical Trending Moves It's obvious we are looking at a equity bubble in China. I'm not worried where this goes, I'm more interested in where this ends. I want to be on the put side of this ETF. I have most likely missed 2/3 of this price move. Volatility and price velocity will be much greater on the downside, and more money can be made when the bubble burst. Symmetrical Lines In this chart example I'm focused on large impulsive symmetrical moves on the downside. Both moves on the downside had similar angles. I marked these previous downward moves and added them to where Chinese ETF FXI brokeout. Timing the Bust I'm expecting the bubble to top somewhere between July 13 and August 28 (noted vertical line alarms on chart). Pattern: Bump and Run Price Trends China Bubble Burst is Collateral Damage Around the World US Bond Market with positive drift US Stocks with positive drift
AMEX:FXI
by QuantitativeExhaustion
46
The Big Bubble - Correlation S&P500 vs Treasury 30y2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US bond market and goes on US stocks - RISK ON. START THE BUBBLE: The first divergence for Fed QE & BoJ: A rising index corresponds to a fall in yields = excess liquidity in the market - Bubble begins to swell and then be absorbed THE BIG BUBBLE: The divergence between performance of the stocks and lower yields on the bond market is the highest ever. The bubble is always more swollen and the two lines more and more divergent. A Fed rate hike (and therefore yield) approaches the two lines (seen in early 2015) but if this were not enough the bubble may deflate and bring down the stocks..fly to normality?! BE CAREFUL
FX:SPX500Short
by guado77
Looking for a breakdown as confidence wanesThe bulls have had a good few weeks, but the long term downtrend appears to be stopping the price from moving any further, further validating my suspicions as indicated in my last idea (link provided). As the price continues to try to break out with several high-volume surges, it has continued to make lower highs and broken the immediate uptrend with lower lows on the shorter time frames. Volume is dying off very quickly as the bulls are beginning to give up on breakout hopes. That said, there is still strong support in the $240s. I expect to at least revisit that, but we may break through it as well, based on my last idea which shows similarities with the May-June 2014 bull run. This is beginning to look like it could have a similar fate. All of that said, watch the red triangle for confirmation whether it breaks up or down.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MoonTrader
14
Never forget the past / What's the next black Swan ?Always good to look back in time. remember this : Tiscali – Important Italian telecommunications company whose share price grew from €46 (IPO in November 1999) to €1,197 in four months. They fell to €40 afterwards in less than two months and have continued plummeting to well under 0.2 euro. [ Think Tools AG – One of the most extreme symptoms of the bubble in Europe: market valuation of CHF 2.5 billion in March 2000, no prospects of having a substantial product (investor deception), followed by a collapse InfoSpace – In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 the price had crashed down to $22 a share. The only thing you have to do is maybe replace Tiscali by Snapchat and Tinktools by Uber :) Everytime the RSI is overbrought in the monthly , There will be a correction that year. So it's just waiting now , who turn the fire on the wick :)
FX:GER30
by carman
5
Historical Analysis: Anatomy of a bubbleOn the left is our $266 high in 2013, on the right is our current volatile drop to $166 flipped upside down. A month ago I made a thread about how I believed we were in the middle of a shorting\bearish bubble, posted here: www.reddit.com And today, with our 20\20 retrospect goggles on, we can see that having formed out in the charts. These moves are partly harmonic\fractal because of the nature of markets to find a equilibrium, but I believe it shows the bubble cycle mentality that is so common in Bitcoin. In the past, the only way to participate in the price action was to buy. There was no ability to short on any exchange until basically 2014, where we saw the advent of the bear market. This means that the bears, like the bulls, need to have their chance at the extremely volatile, bubble-like nature of Bitcoin, and undergo a shorting bubble just like the bulls had a longing bubble. I threw the ascending wedge pattern in there for shits and giggles, but I honestly do not know where this consolidation pattern will lead us (as my related idea below shows). I just find it fascinating how Bitcoin loves to repeat it's patterns; it loves it's fractals. I used the April 2013 bubble because it fit the shape I was looking for more in form than the Nov 2013 one did where we twin-topped (inb4 accusations of form-fitting). If you scroll to Nov on the left chart then you can see what I am talking about, I added a few of my markings for comparison. Let me know what you think! I'm liking the historical analysis "series" I've been doing, for some reason I keep finding these things. Like, comment, and follow!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by lowstrife
17
New bull market soon? Watch the trendline. We are very close to breaking the long-term trendline. We're either going to fail to make a new high and slowly churn downward again, or we're going start a long climb to bullish targets. Since we already have major baseline support below us, I'm leaning toward the latter If we start to see volume coming in here and the price moving steadily past that trendline, we're looking at a new bull market. This will be the first time this has happened since May and it will be big. As always, though, wait for confirmation. A break of $246 will have me convinced. I've waffled a bit in the past, but my ideas right after the last low were calling this. Let's see if it plays out. I'm keeping this idea neutral because it could start to slog downward like it did the last time we met this trendline. Donations welcome: 1Eg1QK5vJVCcSoZM3Cp8dgpJ9jv4tjng8m
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MoonTrader
3
Something big is about to happenAs we take a step back and look at the bigger picture, you'll notice we're right at baseline support at the bear trap before the big China bubble. I would advise being patient with this one because there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out. I'm becoming slightly more bullish but still looking for a possible double bottom at $16x. No trades yet, but short below $210 and long above $240. We could stay in consolidation for a while longer before anything happens, so I would highly advise being patient with this one and not trading on a hunch here. My last idea was quite bearish, and I will link to it, but you'll notice I only ever really expected to test the recent lows. Beyond that is speculation. That said, new lows aren't looking realistic at this point due to the sheer length of time we've been under this downtrend along with strong baseline support. I'm cautiously bullish but waiting to see if we will test the recent lows first.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MoonTrader
5
Are you guys thinking what I'm thinking?Hi everyone! Today i've been trying something new! Like everyone knows already i'm expecting an rally within now and a month. To confirm this idea i'm looking all the time for new ideas and strategics to confirm my way of thinking. This time i've been using the gann fan and it looks really beautiful dot you think? The gann fan is a form of technical analysis based on the ideas that the market is geometric and cyclical in nature. A Gann fan consists of a series of diagonal lines called Gann angles, of which there are nine. These angles are superimposed over a price chart to show a security's support and resistance levels. It looks like were moving in the good direction and were almost there. If you take a look @ the mama baby thing you notice that we're ready for takeoff. We fly wiring a month to destination moon :) (or correct like we've never done before) "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then they noticed that they were wrong. We're almost there !!" Also take a look @ the charts that I've made to confirm this idea! & Hope this helped you further and don't forget to like :) Have a good day!
BLong
by Maddie
46
Perfect Bubble in the making?This is the result in the drawing of some free hand trajectories. With names like DanV predicting sub 300 prices as well, and with consideration of the last rise to 680. This might just be the perfect bubble in the making. And looking at it from this perspective, really not that far fetched. Taking the current Fundamentals in combination with relative sentiment into account. There really isn't a whole lot to be bullish about in the mid- (1-5 month) term.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by LifeIsABullTrap
62
Bitstamp–BTC-e Spread Exhibits Deep StructureThere is a recurrent and long-standing pattern within the spread between these two exchanges. A few months before every "bubble" begins, the spread funnels itself into a tidy channel, which it essentially remains in until the price peaks, though displays no other internal order. There are also clearly other structural self-similarities. As you look back in time you see that the signal become noisier but, moving forward, these characteristics are emerging and becoming amplified with each new pass/cycle. —On another note, you can also see the effects from the "Mt. Gox" section were essentially like having a mini bubble and subsequent crash, inside the crash from the main bubble.— Deep market mechanisms must account for this behavior, and there will likely be much to infer from it. Obviously, for the current cycle, there is no way for me to draw the "correct" channel without knowing the future, so the existing one is merely illustrative.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by snowsilence
2
Bubbles, bubbles and bubbles everywhere www.ritholtz.com A good read while the price of Bitcoin is stabilized for now. Spend some time and read this article briefly, and perhaps you might be better informed about where we are right now. Are we still at the beginning of a bigger bubble or we are already poping? I'm not speculating if we'll go down to $100 or $40,000 or not, its up to you to decide as an investor. We've been through this for many times since the beginning. Gold, housing, bond market, Japanese Nikki, alt coin pump & dump (one every day), land, radio stock, internet stock (2000), and so on. I've left all my position in momentum stocks so far. (Tesla, Facebook, Amazon, Twitter, Netflix, and etc) It was a good ride for the past 3 years with an average gain of more than 90% per year...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LastBattle
Expecting a Bubble?We have broken below 600 again ever since we did so in late June. This time was more intense and stronger than ever as it looks like we will end the candle off staying this way. Support levels 590 (strongly tested), 586, 557 and 534 are all possible zones for a battle if we happen to fall lower. Good possibility we either do that or continue sideways unless we get some good news, or random jitter from investors. I am going to be looking at the weekly chart today since it was ChartArt who pointed out how the long term indicators weren’t doing so great. In fact, they are not in the best of spots. Ultimate Oscillator has not once broken through. At this point, nothing is following previous bubble cycles with respect to the indicators. When they should have been into the overbought stage right now they are instead falling. There is no news or anything positive that would catalyst us. Contrary to popular belief, the cycles need something to kick start them off. Either speculation, like China during the last bubble, or maybe just 10,000 new investors to the Bitosphere. Indicators PSAR – Bearish at this point, but it is getting closer. This week’s sudden fall did not help it, though. Unless we see 660 prices here soon I just don’t see it switching to BUY. UO – If you try to extrapolate anything from the next indicators they will tell you it is not time for bubble. It is still possible for us to see OB. However, without any good news, or some push above 660 I will expect it to remain in the general bull territory. Stoch RSI + Stoch – In general are both in a downward swing. Going above 630 would really help it to go back on track into OB. More on my blog as I look back upon this week www.allbitcointa.cu.cc
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ItisCalvin
2
The all-important 38.2% level and what breaking it means.Several weeks ago, I posted () a unique comparison of Bitcoin bubbles and how even though the sizes are so much different, they follow the same pattern for the aftershocks and the retracements. As I'm sure everyone has noticed, we are on the verge of another bubble now, and I personally think that the breaking of this $680 level (and accompanying 38.2%) will be the confirmation we need. What I have added this time, in addition to cleaning up my work, is several indicators on the bottom. In the past, they have "bounced" off of a higher level that the main crash of that cycle did, and this time around this same "bounce" is rearing it's head yet again. If we break $680, that will be a very good confirmation for the coming weeks. I simplified this chart to try and make the picture I'm trying to paint a little bit clearer, if you have any questions don't hesitate to ask! _____________________________________________ On a side note, my prediction from here seems to be coming true: (www.reddit.com) >Additionally, as the liquidity increases in the markets and the economy grows, I think the "bubble pattern" will break it's 235 day cycle and start slowing down, along with volatility slowly decreasing over time. We see this in my >chart with the time spans on the bottom. This is why the current phase seems to be "behind schedule" to many, but I'm not worried. As long as we continue the next few weeks with a solid launch platform, we will still be in >excellent conditions for a bubble launch. I have been expecting this bubble cycle to take considerably longer than the "235 day" window everyone was expecting back then, and by now it looks like that is set in stone. There simply is too much ground to cover and not enough things are falling into place. I started to suspect this was the case back when we took so long to exit the bearish trendline back at $450 because all of the things (X,Y,Z) that had to happen were starting to get more and more compressed. On the other hand, on the larger cycle picture, things seem to be right on track. So sit back and enjoy folks! (oh, and I'm still buying Litecoin as based on my previous predictions too! Dat flash crash)
MTGOX:BTCUSDLong
by lowstrife
5
The long term repeating bubbles of bitcoinIf history does not repeat, but only rhymes then we are in for one hell of a ride again in the next few months. My theory here is that the rises in bitcoin price are not due to any particular news, it is the increased adoption that drives the price through the alltime highs and the unsustainability of the exponential curve brings it crashing back down. People like to find "fundamental" reasons why the price is moving but there is only one real fundamental when it comes to bitcoin, a new uncontrolled financial technology growing in the public domain. Good and bad news is released everyday about/for bitcoin and if you look for one you will find a "reason" but only because you want to find one. Correlation does not mean causation. The relatively small price moves CAN be attributed to news, however the price typically recovers quickly, SR and Mt. Gox are good examples of this. As the price rises rapidly people will be looking for an excuse to sell and will use that news to signal the top, however it is important to know that the top will come and may not be news driven. This time people will attribute this new rise to the entrance of wall street into bitcoin and the crash back will anything from wall street caused it to the a change in tax regulation or trust in an exchange or wallet service dissolving. The top should be between $5,800 and $10,000 and the bottom around $2000, and the next round should take us to approximately $50,000. After this bubble and crash there should be enough data to predict the top of the next one more accurately.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheDyslexicMessia
The 2011 Megabubble for Bitcoin was part of a larger cycle.So with some charts I made a few days ago, I had a realization that the Megabubble in 2011 we saw was actually part of a longer cycle that is A) identical to every bubble that came after and B) difficult to see because of it's scale. As far as I have seen, nobody else has ever charted the Megabubble and the subsequent "mini-bubbles" that occurred after in this same manner. Typically they say t he $15 bubble in 2012 was a similar bubble to the two that followed it except that it was a failed launch. In reality, it was part of a larger cycle in the recovery from 2011. I hope this chart explains things and my theory that we only have had 3 bubbles and are finishing our current cycle now and are not significantly deviated from the cycle period. I'd love to hear your thoughts that these cycles are identical and that it's just the scales are different. As always with my charts, every single item is color coordinated and every thing that I do put onto each chart is replicated across all 3 timeframes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lowstrife
8