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Bubble

Current situation vs 1980s, 2000sIntroduction This is pretty clear that we are witnessing bubbles on different markets every around 20 years period of time. These bubbles obviously are driven by the unreasonable greed of the investors. Market is always unreasonable but we can see some similarities between all bubbles. Japan 80's real estate and stock market Since Japan had monetary crisis at the beginning of 80's the government decided to impose more dovish policy with very low interest rates and stimulous which ended up in big stock market and real estate bubble. Not to mention that at the peak of in 1989, the value of the Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo was greater than that of real estate in the entire state of California. The end was when Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 2.5% to 6%. Investors found it as sign of worse times and bubble was ended. Nikkei 225 never got again the same value as in the late 80's. NASDAQ 2000's Dotcom Capital moved from Japan to NASDAQ where was found new point of investment. Newly developed internet created the base for greed for investors. Index crashed by 78% after raising interest rates from 4.75% to 6.5%. Bitcoin 2020's The most recent one. I know there are many people who wish Bitcoin go to 500k or more. Even many "predicted" that during current cycle peak will be at around 250-300k, however ATH was around 67k. In my opinion even 67k was very overpriced. At this moment Bitcoin is not really usable, it was claimed to be "new gold" but gold already proved its usability for thousands years and Bitcoin is fairly new thing, maybe for the next generations it will be more usable but we need years until new business will be created on cryptocurrency and will be developed ways to use it, so far people don't use it widely for everyday payments, if it's ever intended to use for paymens. Similarly to the Dotcom bubble, internet at that time existed but wasn't very usable, later companies like Google and Amazon developed ways for commercial and everyday use. The state legislation must also follow these innovations, including crypto and NFT, otherwise companies won't ever want to enter this business if courts don't recognize violations related to this kind of business. In my opinion Bitcoin may never reach again 67k or it will take many years. Maybe after few years we will call 2020's as "Bitcoin bubble" powered by very low interest rates and stimulous from pandemic and ended similar like in Japan by raising rates and making fear among investors.
SP:SPX
by UnknownUnicorn29290293
Bitcoin probably won't hold 200 WMA, tulip bubble to zero 2025Bitcoin will probably for the first time not hold its 200 WMA, thus changing the multi year bull trend. I expect even a drop to 10k. As usual we will have scam pumps by whales it will pump to possibly 30k dollar first, before crashing, so please fomo and let the whales dump on you! The market is NOT bullish, stocks have NOT bottomed out. Big warning! Whales let retail fomo, this is why BTC go up. If retail is broke and lost faith in BTC, the whales lost. Which idiot would pump 100 million of dollars in highly speculative risky asset that isn't worth a dime. Simple, they can't manipulate stock markets so they come and manipulate BTC, you see green candle and fomo like a monkey, then they sell and make profit. Tell me who is in profit? Only those who bought pre 2017, those who bought in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 even unless in covid crash is in loss. Even they who hold maybe have a 2x. Don't tell me these retail who made a 2x will not take profit when they see BTC tumbling down, the whales will get karma back fired at them for pumping and dumping this ponzi scheme. This is for entertainment purposes! Yes I entered crypto with roughly 34500$ DCA'd between 2018 and 2019 with average BTC price of 7.2k, I sold at 9.1k in May 2020 before the pump to new heights. I have around 4-5k left portfolio, let me tell you from experience, Bitcoin will crash to 10k and do unexpected things. It hit 3k TWICE while I held while everyone said we would never go below 10, never go below 6k. We went to 3k!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Heartskull
6
WORST yet to come. Crypto's bubble bursting? Maybe.Disclaimer: This is a Newbie analyses with no past Experience! Don't get me wrong, I love everything about Crypto and appreciate being alive to witness this astonishing technology. Some people have made fortunes, others lost fortunes and salute to those STILL HODLING. 2020-2021 was INSANE, everything was hitting the roof, people invested pennies and got rich. But this time its different, this year is different, I mean BITCOIN BTC is down 53%. I CAN'T help but to think that we are witnessing something similar to the DOTCOM Bubble of the 90s. Where: -Money was everywhere -New start-ups were emerging everyday, -Hell, NASDAQ reached 5048, at its peak, then plummeted to 1114 in Oct 2002. Similarly, -Money was everywhere in the Crypto space, -People made 100x-1000x-10000x on their investments. -A dozen of new projects are emerging every single day. - BITCOIN soared all the way to 65k USD in 2021, and now potentially it might bottom out to 11k-12k zone. All this, with what the world is witnessing, GLOBAL WARS, RECESSION and INFLATION, I think we are at verge of CRYPTO's bubble bursting. However, it is not all bad news, if this scenario is executed, then after the crash, only the strong, most promising and solid projects will SURVIVE. NOTE: For further observation, open the NASDAQ Composite MONTHLY chart, set the year between (1995-2003), and compare it to CRYPTO's Total (2018-2022). This is not a financial advise! Please comment your ideas about the analyses. Appreciate your constructive comment and feedback in advance.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by ashurbanipalcrypto
BTCUSD breakdown macro high - waiting for capitulationBTCUSD is a a pretty big danger zone as it drops towards the 2017 peak. The resolve of Bitcoin maximalists and dip buyers is about to be tested. So many say things like "Bitcoin bear market bottoms NEVER go below the previous cycle high!"..... never say never. BTC will rise again, but it's hard to say how low it may end up going before a bottom is found. "Rules" from previous cycles/trends are about to be broken. Bag holders from the 2017 peak may soon be in the red again which could lead to them throwing in the towel during the next capitulation event. Below 21k things can get ugly fast. The huge MicroStrategy fund may be forced to dump A LOT of BTC: fortune.com The 100 month MA looks like it could easily be in play.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RobBiddle
1
Bitcoin and the fed trillions Im gonna say it! It is not a suprice after the fed printing trillions of dollars, they woud withdrawal it also with great intrest from the people that invested during that time. This is a bigger crash then we have seen in 2020... It doesnt make any sense, there for my conclution is that this was a bubble. If you believe in coincidence that the moment the fed started printing trillions of dollars the cryptomarket went to 3 trillion dollars, be my guest. The fed put those trillions there, and they are also the ones that are withdrawing it with major intrest. This is how bitcoin looks like when the fed is involved and little of industrie...
INDEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn27344900
1972-2022 Comparison of Nasdaq and GSPC Indexes.This chart shows the monthly Nasdaq and S and P 500 going back to the early 70's, a little after the Nasdaq index first started (which I believe was 1971). I should note that it's a monthly chart, again, so it's SMA's are monthly based, and I use logarithmic scale for long term charts. Log. is not really for short term so much. I like to look at very long term charts periodically, and freshly analyze them. I believe it's important to study longer time frames especially if you're a day trader like me. I get consumed by the short term movements, and believe you need a full history of anything to truly understand it. It's fairly easy to see that the Nasdaq moves further and faster than the GSPC. The Nasdaq has tripled the long performance of the GSPC since 1975, and when it corrects, expect that to be more pronounced as well. I like to look at Fibonacci Retracements simply because other people look at them, and they're probably programmed into the big quant trading companies algorithms as well. Almost everyone looks at Fib. retracements whether they admit it or not. Of course, you can't trade directly at these levels as if they are a "golden mean". In the stock market if you meet one person who trades off of some indicator, you can bet others do to, no matter how crazy you think it is. Even if you don't agree with it; the sum total of all points of view of those trading, equate to the current price. I know what I'm thinking, it's the average of everyone's thinking, that I can't figure out. Of course, something like 80 percent of the price action is said to be the result of automated, algorithmic trading. So, I'm taking classes on computer programming, algorithmic trading, data structures, etc. Which leads me into some notations I have on the chart. I have a big orange arrow pointing to October of 1987 when new computer trading systems got everyone in trouble. I've placed red arrows at points on the Rate of Change indicator where the ROC begins to diverge with price action. It isn't 100 percent, but if this divergence begins to occur be prepared for downside which could move extremely fast. We had a Rate of Change price divergence starting in 12/20/21 and look what's happened since then. Also the Rate of Change is moving down now, and it's very low already, about 20 below the Zero line. This indicator alone makes me believe that there will be more short side price action to come. The Nasdaq went from a low of 1265, roughly, in March of 2009 to a high of 16,212 in November of last year. That's not supposed to happen. There are people who are 31 years old right now, and there hasn't been a real bear market since they became legal adults. I generally live by not having a directional bias in the market, I just follow price action, and I don't believe much in holding positions overnight. I am just cautioning people who have a long bias after 13 years of a generally bullish market, that we have some very unique market condition coming into play, and learning a more price action based strategy, if they haven't is somewhat warranted. We have a few, MASSIVE, market caps holding indexes up which are skewing the outlook more positive than it should be. We have economic experts that are about 150 years old, and they've never seen anything like this. I loved the idea of Cryptocurrency, but I tend to agree with Buffet on that one. Crypto doesn't have value at it's core, it wasn't worth anything when the idea started. Normally, when a company goes public they have some core value. They produce something, or create a new technology that has value. I love that it trades 24/7 basically, I love that you can use it on the dark web, I love that politicians don't get rich from it, I loved that computer guys could make money mining it in the beginning. Soon you're going to need your own power plant and cpu company to mine it. I ramble too much maybe, without getting to the point. The point is from 2009 to our 2021 index high, the recent Nasdaq low was about a 35% retracement of that gain, and statistically that's just not enough given the decade long upside performance of it. We had a decade run that came close to the Nasdaq gains in the 90's tech bubble. The tech bubble was around 1500% in a decade, we were close to 1300% in a decade (those numbers are give or take a little obviously). The tech bubble bottom 34 months later with a 84% retracement of it's decade long gain. We're currently only 6 months away from our high in November, and only saw a roughly 35% retracement. No one knows what the market will do, but if you believe we've seen the bottom you have to explain away numbers like that. My friend thinks it's un-American to be short a position. Remember that these quant. trading companies have MIT students developing algorithms to beat you out of your money. Competition is the American way.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by tmaloney1978
📌Stages of a bubble (LUNA)📈🔘📉Fear has a far greater grasp on human action than the impressive weight of historical evidence.” — Jeremy Siegel. The stages we have seen recently for Luna are very similar to the stages of an Economic Bubble no matter what the market is necessarily , whether it is stock, or cryptocurrency , and other asset classes, It usually happens . Markets rise and fall, and they can fall quite a bit too—this is what you signed up for. Good times don’t last forever, and neither do the bad time sit’s a cycle. So don’t draw conclusions from the past and project them into the future. Usually Bubbles can only be observed after they happened, as there are not always clear signs of them visible. But there is strong evidence that almost every bubble was going through the same stages. The Economist Hyman P. Minsky was the first one to outline these 5 stages, and so we will explain them in a little more detail. Bubbles (financial manias) unfold in several stages, an observation that is backed up by 500 years of economic history. Each mania is obviously different, but there are always similarities; simplistically, four phases can be identified: Stealth >> Those who understand the new fundamentals realize an emerging opportunity for substantial future appreciation, but at risk since their assumptions are so far unproven. So the “smart money” gets invested in the asset class, often quietly and cautiously. This category of investors tends to have better access to information and a higher capacity to understand the wider economic context that would trigger asset inflation . Prices gradually increase but often completely unnoticed by the general population. Larger and larger positions are established as the smart money starts to understand better that the fundamentals are well-grounded and that this asset class is likely to experience significant future valuations. Awareness>> Many investors start to notice the momentum, bringing additional money in and pushing prices higher. There can be a short-lived sell-off phase taking place as a few investors cash in their first profits (there could also be several sell-off phases, each beginning at a higher level than the previous one). The smart money takes this opportunity to reinforce its existing positions. In the later stages of this phase, the media starts to notice with positive reports about how this new boom benefits the economy by “creating” wealth; those getting in becoming increasingly “unsophisticated”. Mania>> Everyone is noticing that prices are going up, and the public jumps in for this “investment opportunity of a lifetime”. The expectations about future appreciation become a “no brainer,” and a linear inference mentality sets in; future prices are an extrapolation of past price appreciation, which of course, goes against any conventional wisdom. However, this phase is not about logic but a lot about psychology. Floods of money come in, creating even greater expectations and pushing prices to stratospheric levels. The higher the price, the more investments pour in. Fairly unnoticed from the general public caught in this new frenzy, the smart money, as well as many institutional investors, are quietly pulling out and selling their assets. Unbiased opinion about the fundamentals becomes increasingly difficult to find as many players are heavily invested and have every interest to keep asset inflation going. The market gradually becomes more exuberant as “paper fortunes” are made from regular “investors,” and greed sets in. Everyone tries to jump in, and new intrants have absolutely no understanding of the market, its dynamic, and fundamentals. Prices are bid up with all financial means possible, particularly leverage and debt. If the bubble is linked with lax sources of credit, then it will endure far longer than many observers would expect, therefore discrediting many rational assessments that the situation is unsustainable. At some point, statements are made about entirely new fundamentals implying that a “permanent high plateau” has been reached to justify future price increases; the bubble is about to collapse. Blow-off>> A moment of epiphany (a trigger) arrives, and everyone roughly at the same time realizes that the situation has changed. Confidence and expectations encounter a paradigm shift, not without a phase of denial where many try to reassure the public that this is just a temporary setback. Some are fooled, but not for long. Many try to unload their assets, but takers are few; everyone is expecting further price declines. The house of cards collapses under its own weight, and latecomers (commonly the general public) are left holding depreciating assets while the smart money pulled out a long time ago. Prices plummet at a rate much faster than the one that inflated the bubble. Many over-leveraged asset owners go bankrupt, triggering additional waves of sales. There is even the possibility that the valuation undershoots the long-term mean, implying a significant buying opportunity. However, the general public at this point considers this sector as “the worst possible investment one can make”. This is the time when the smart money starts acquiring assets at low prices. Economic Bubble Summary With many kinds of economic bubbles in history, we see that there is always a potential for growing a bubble due to our nature. Behavioral economics shows that we follow the herd, we only look at information we like, and we tend to oversee facts because we are gamers by nature. This will lead also in future to many more economic bubbles which will spur interest from a new technology, new paradigm and finally lead to a new economic cycle which starts after the contraction after a bubble. We will see what bubble will form in the future, and most likely we will only see it coming when it is too late. Especially with leveraged bubbles we will see even bigger impacts on our economy, not just for the specific niche the bubble was built in as the (financial) economy is more interwoven and interdependent globally. We should also not forget that fast spreading media news, social media filter bubbles and increasingly more extremist society, we will have a lot of amplifiers what will help spur new bubbles. sources: Wikipedia - transportgeography.org-morethandigital.info-zerodha.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👉This article is for informational purposes only. 💜 if you're a fan of my Ideas PLZ follow me and give a big thumbs 👍 OR drop comment 🗯
L
by PRO_SMART_Trader
2
The Bears Come For Google Well, well, well, this is precisely what I was talking about in my post about big tech. This is just a short post, showing some levels. These overheated stocks are finally getting a taste of profit-taking. Netflix managed to actually break below its 200 week moving average. If Google does the same, another 50%+ drop is possible. On the conservative side, Google can simply head towards the 200 MA and bounce. However, I really think there are some people sitting on enormous profits that have yet to start realizing those gains. Let's see! Will GOOGLE tank another 50-80% from here? I am of the general opinion that markets will need to return to pre-COVID levels (at best) in order to correct current inflation, and in order for the economy to begin sorting itself out with significant policy change. This is because the market has largely been propped up due to money printing and QE. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only, not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:GOOGShort
by VictorCobra
3
NASDAQ Bubble Bust DXY CorrelationThe market peaked in Nov and is in Bubble-Bust-Mode. DXY is breaking out upwards from a multi-year consolidation. Looking back to the DotCom Bubble and comparing NASDAQ to DXY, DXY broke out near the equity peak and reached its peak when NASDAQ was near bottom of the crash. It's not a perfect correlation in shorter time-frames, but close enough that it may be useful on the macro time-frame. If the current Asset/Big-Tech Bubble rhymes with history, look for DXY to continue upward into 110-120 range or higher over the next year or so as NASDAQ plummets back down to reality, e.g. somewhere around the 200 Month Moving Average. Then whenever DXY is crashing back down towards ~100 that may be a good signal that the bottom is in for equities.
TVC:IXIC
by RobBiddle
Economic Bubbles and EMA 100/200Here is an BTC analysis of the current price drop, and based on the Theory of Financial Bubbles can we spot three bubble ish formations in the past years. The three points in time this analysis sees are the bubbles in 2018 when the price drop followed by a pump to the upside, not as high as the previous high but this was followed by a drastic drop The market followed the economic bubble theory with a peak which followed by a price drop, by the time the price started to stabilize itself did investors take profit and the price crashed into a panic sell off. The second point in time this happened was the start of the Covid pandemic which caused the price to follow this same movement to its low. Now in 2022 can we see this similar movement where the price has started to drop which will continue downwards and after this initial downtrend will the price pump slightly upwards where investors take profit and after this pump will the price crash. Following the Financial Bubble Theory. Something we trader also need to take into account which may confirm this analysis is the movement in in EMA 100 which during these three points in time crossed down below the EMA 200. Entry Price: 3200 USD Target Price 1: 2500 USD Target Price 2: 2100 USD Target Price 3: 1700 USD When taking this position do we need to focus on the initial drop and when the price pumps upwards do need to take into account for the downwards sloping resistance line, if the price breaks the trend line to the upside is the trend likely to reverse and do a final longer push. This assumption is less likely to happen, as the general price trend is a take profit zone before the price hits the panic zone and its final drop off. This pump from the initial low may have already happened in the case of BTC, which we did not see in ETH yet. Meaning that the price now touched the downwards sloping resistance before continuing downwards. Together with a negative price strength, an EMA 100 below the EMA 200 and the price doing its second pump into the take profit zone before the drastic drop can we build a theory which looks negative. This is not financial advice.
Short
by vf_investment
Economic Bubbles and EMA 100/200Here is an ETH analysis of the current price drop, and based on the Theory of Financial Bubbles can we spot three bubble ish formations in the past years. The three points in time this analysis sees are the bubbles in 2018 when the price drop followed by a pump to the upside, not as high as the previous high but this was followed by a drastic drop The market followed the economic bubble theory with a peak which followed by a price drop, by the time the price started to stabilize itself did investors take profit and the price crashed into a panic sell off. The second point in time this happened was the start of the Covid pandemic which caused the price to follow this same movement to its low. Now in 2022 can we see this similar movement where the price has started to drop which will continue downwards and after this initial downtrend will the price pump slightly upwards where investors take profit and after this pump will the price crash. Following the Financial Bubble Theory. Something we trader also need to take into account which may confirm this analysis is the movement in in EMA 100 which during these three points in time crossed down below the EMA 200. Entry Price: 3200 USD Target Price 1: 2500 USD Target Price 2: 2100 USD Target Price 3: 1700 USD When taking this position do we need to focus on the initial drop and when the price pumps upwards do need to take into account for the downwards sloping resistance line, if the price breaks the trend line to the upside is the trend likely to reverse and do a final longer push. This assumption is less likely to happen, as the general price trend is a take profit zone before the price hits the panic zone and its final drop off. This is not financial advice.
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by vf_investment
3
HGX Realestate Housing Bubble 2008.2Here's the monthly chart on this housing index. I have no idea what I am charting but it looks like the index is moving with the recent major events such as FED increasing rates finally, everyone is FOMO into buying a house and everyone and their grandmother are becoming real-estate agents haha. FED are supposedly cutting back on MBS purchasing also. With that said.. This isn't 2008! Buy now before your priced out. Stonks/Hoomz prices only goes up! Great investment, a hoom is your piggy bank!! LOL
NASDAQ:HGXShort
by legcramp89
$QQQ HUGE History of QQQ$QQQ HUGE Key Levels, Analysis & Targets I can't believe I'm publishing this one. 🤣 I want to keep it and I don't want to publish it private, but I also need to remove the lines and trade on a practical timeframe... LOL Ok, I might lose a few people here… and that is ok. This is in log mode. Tech bubble one to start, and an 83% drawdown on QQQ… hits bottom in 2002… runs for 7 years, but does NOT recover before the next recession. So tops in 2007, bottoms in 2009… in 2016 we return to all time highs from 2000… WOW. So from 2009 to 2022 is an 11 year bull run with minimal correction… and when it was supposed to correct in 2019 it was propped up by the fed instead… which actually created quite the bubble… With that being said an 83% drawdown would take QQQ to about 68. Believe what you want and the market is one day at a time and I do trade it that way… but damn, this could get interesting… Lets hike some rates, y’all… It's COLD in the High country BTW ❄️❄️❄️
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
18