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Can technical analysis infer the result of Fed Tightening?This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the two criteria for a slowdown to be considered a recession are two consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth as well as a trough in unemployment). Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have been consistent indicators of economic slowdowns and very rarely move to the upside with a significant degree of magnitude without preceding a recession or at least a period of stock-market volatility.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by citrinityx
Using the Keltner and Gaussian Channels to prepare for another NTLDR: If we see the NASDAQ enter the Gaussian Channel or NDX/SPX enters the Gaussian Channel it is a time to start looking for long term investments. If you see something you like (and maybe that includes giving you dividends) you would buy the base of the keltner channel. Analysis I think Have done a good job of putting the information on the main chart in an easy to understand way. One thing I have tinkered on in the past but am not going to detail in this post is how I often see a lot of curious price action occur within important wicks or candle bodies. You cannot always guarantee what kind of price action that you will get in one of these wicks. After all, they could be continuation or reversal. Either way, if you are doing this analysis on a monthly chart or something similar you might be looking for a pattern to develop on that time frame. And if you are on a monthly chart looking for at monthly candle sticks to make a pattern that can take years to develop. Another thing I am not digging into is other indicators looking for bearish divergence. They are there, but I am kinda time bound right now. A look at the weekly chart of NQ1!/SPXUSD shows after price went above the last monthly wick of NDX/SPX that price formed a double top and price is right at the valley low. Sure, they may be a bounce, for some odd reason, but I am not betting on it. I use the NASDAQ Futures versus SPXUSD because that gets me the most time based data but the inclusion of SPXUSD prohibits me from using any volume analysis, but that is fine for some pure charting technical analysis. I use the fib tar getting on that is pretty solid and while price may zigzag down on NDX/SPX the target shows that NDX is going to take a slagging compared to SPX. If you are familiar with your US indices, then you know generally that NDX is going to take the biggest hit, then SPX, then DJI. If this is similar to the dot Com bubble pop then Gold should be looking pretty good. And after Gold looks good, silver and the other precious metals should get a run. Here is a look at NDX and Gold. We might be in a decades long bull run of Gold against NDX. A look at GoldFutures/NDX seems to have a lot of bullishness in the monthly chart with your classic bullish divergence on the monthly. Gold versus Ethereum also looks very bullish divergence on the MACD and the Stoch picking up. What I am doing (for now) My crypto account is either in Tether, PAXG, or taking shorts. My normie employer restrictive retiremnet fund is poised for interest rates to rise. My own trading account is building a portfolio around precious metals and miners.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by This_Guhy
3
BITCOIN to DROP to ~ $12500 in ~ 1-2 YEAR. Network Adoption...I know everyone will say this is an outlandish call but I am making it anyway. I FULLY Expected $BTC to bounce at the most recent TL support around $38,400-$40k just as everyone else did. But the signs were there and I wish I saw them earlier that $BTC has Topped for 2022 and will likely not see a bottom until 12-18 months from now. I expect the low to be around $12500 for this Target Price. WHY?? Glad you asked. When $BTC broke from its major TL support, Horizontal support and below the Weekly EMA 39 I had to reevaluate my Bullishness on $BTC. Now I am LONGTERM Bullish $BTC but have become intermediate term Bearish. BTC has been following closely the Metcalf's law of Network Adoption that is available everywhere online. I am a firm believer that $BTC and crypto in general is the "Internet of Finance and Banking". So why are we comparing $BTC to $BTC prior 4 year cycles??. Why is everyone comparing $BTC to Stock to Flow model and halving events?? Shouldn't we be comparing it to well established Internet stocks that followed Metcalf's Law like,....AMZN?? Yes you say....well lets look closely at AMZN when it was first trading with a market cap of ~ $6 Billion around the Dot Com Bubble. Everyone was into tech. There were thousands of "dot com" companies some of which survived but most that did not. Sounds a lot like Crypto. We have mainstream media talking about crypto but they are not really sure how it fits in to the real world. Some accept it and others think its ridiculous. The same in the dot com era. Look at the following charts of BTC and AMZN. Notice any similarities?? BOTH had a long basing structure with a small pop in price toward end of the summer prior to any POP in price. BTC Price pop was probably somewhat effected by the Pandemic. Notice there are basically 3 UPTHRUSTS. They look slightly different but they also look alot alike. See charts for the details on the similarities . The peaks of the 1st UPTHRUST were obviously different in AMZN compared to BTC but otherwise the timing and chart pattern is almost identical. Even the slope of the TL (Yellow Lines) and timing of all the Peaks is eerily similar. What was going on at that time with the Fed?? You guessed it RATE HIKES!! Three to be exact! But the overall Nasdaq continued to tread higher topping out between March-April 2000 while AMZN started to top out January 2000. People said it had no merit and expected it to die many times. After all AMZN didn't make any money (sound Familiar Peter Schiff?...). AMZN Topped and fell for about 20 months before reaching its "Basing Structure" overhead resistance around $5. That base became the floor. If we assume that BTC is trading 24/7 unlike AMZN we can reasonably assume the bottom will happen slightly quicker like maybe 14-18 months. The "Basing Structure" prior to BTC POP in price in 2020 had overhead resistance around $12500. AMZN Floated around $5-$14 for most all of 2001 in another "Basing Structure" of sideways chop. Will history CONTINUE to Repeat??? Tell me what you think and comment below. Trade what you see... AMAZON Chart for Comparison
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by eganon69
2
Illuvium diluting in the Metaverse hypeIn the Metaverse startup bubble, we are witnessing the fall of several assets. Here I will analyze Illuvium. The project may be well-reasoned and so on, but the price doesn't lie. We have a book setup here. Bullish waves from 1 to 5. Then we have the formation of a shoulder-head-shoulder figure. If we project the head height to the reverse (down) side, we have the likely target of the bearish wave 5. It can even explode up and reverse (anything is possible), but I believe this is not the time to bet on altcoins.
BINANCE:ILVUSDShort
by andre_007
Comparing Tech Bubble to Current BubbleInteresting to observe the 3 very distinct stages of the market bubble cycle. Yellow = "Stealth Phase" where all of the smart money accumulates while everyone else sits in fear of the previous bubble, crash, credit cycle, etc. - Transition to Blue via "take off" clear change in character Blue = "Awareness Phase" where all of the institutional investors accumulate. This phase includes several selloffs that increase in severity, to shake out the weak hands and accumulate at better price. -Transitions to Pink via "Media Attention" - celebrities are born - Dot Com - Jeff Skilling, Ken Lay, Mark Cuban, Larry Ellison, etc. Everything Bubble - Elon, Jeff Bezos, Zuck, DeepF*ckingValue, etc. Pink = "Mania Phase" where the retail army comes to do the heavy lifting for the Blowoff top. Everyone and their mom's cat are in the markets, everyday folk are discussing the hot tech stocks or the new crypto that will take over the world, and celebrities make the final transformation to cult leaders. - Transitions are fast in this stage - the possibilities are endless and the grand delusions capture everyone - Great companies light money on fire in public via M&A, companies use all of the new buzzwords - .com, web.01, internet, web.03, crypto, decentralized, AI, Metaverse, etc. Families sell their children to BTFD. Blow off - Everyone continues to BTFD and cry at the same time all the way until they finally give up in the Yellow stage of the next cycle. Frauds are uncovered in droves but hardly anyone goes to prison.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Profit_Reaper
2
US Savings Rate Breaks Uptrend Since the GFC!The total savings in US accounts as a percentage of disposable personal income saw an incredible spike during the lockdowns as "helicopter money" and "stimmy checks" flooded the bank accounts of consumers, fueling an awe-inspiring comeback in retail sales. Unfortunately, however, the data shows that not only is all of this stimulus money gone (along with the pent-up demand), but the US personal savings rate has broken an uptrend that was established after coming out of the last recession. Expect retail sales to falter (they already have) and credit card to start increasing (it already has) as the true state of the economy is revealed, right when the Fed is tapering off QE, planning 4 rate hikes this year, AND threatening QT. What could go wrong?? This is the same data that is reported by our own Fed: fred.stlouisfed.org
ECONOMICS:USPSShort
by HypnoticStrix
Commodities show we are bursting the Everything BubbleThe commodity basket to S&P ratio just formed a textbook double-bottom. The ratio also has a very similar momentum setup to the peak of the Dot.Com Bubble on both the RSI and 7 yr Rate of Change indicators. We look to be starting a true secular bull market in real assets that could be sustained throughout the decade. The chart shows that financial assets have rarely been more overvalued compared to real assets. If looser monetary and fiscal policy is not maintained, equities do not have a rosy near-term outlook.
SP:SPGSCILong
by HypnoticStrix
Give me a reason for Nasdaq to go up?I look for 3 major signs in order to initiate a long term short position 1. BB Cross ... 2. RSI Cross ... 3. Macd Cross ✅ Things however do not look good... February & March are key for the rest of the year. To be honest the party was awesome and it lasted way too much and went way too high what else do you expect? Bad signs to take into consideration: 1. Everybody on the planet is involved somehow with "investing" (www.bloomberg.com) 2. Record number of SPACs (www.statista.com) 3. Failed IPOs (sing of the trend getting weaker) + they did also an IPO in way too high valuation check for yourself some of the hottest (Rivian,Robinhood,Didi,Coupang,Roblox, Airbnb, Snowflake etc etc etc) 4. Inflation running super hot & Interest rates rise ( DO NOT FIGHT THE FED) 5. Record sale of insiders sales (medium.com) 6. US 10YR rising 7. Musk sells quite a big amount of Tesla's shares (www.barrons.com) 8. Crypto casino boom & bust 9. Margin Debt all time high (www.forbes.com) 10. Technicals look awful And i am asking myself over and over again!!! especially now that the FED said interest rates going higher (money becomes more expensive, less leverage) why the heck the stock market will go up? especially when big boys are selling and retails power is drying up... WHO'S LEFT TO BUY?
TVC:IXIC
by Philoslother
2
Repeat of the 2000 dot-com bubble? Some dubious speculation...I took the bar pattern of the 2000 bubble pop and subsequent bear market and copied it to the present day to see what it would look like. I did adjust the shape a little to make the H&S look more symmetrical, just like the H&S in 2000. You can see it fits rather well. - The RSI is topping and expected to trend lower. - The bottom of the breakdown lines up with the market top in 2000 and 2008. - It bottoms at the lower support of the megaphone pattern. - Finally, the length of the move is proportional to the one in 2000. Despite how 'perfectly' it all fits, extrapolating 2 years out to find the bottom is dubious speculation. It goes without saying, but it most likely will not go down like this. Disclaimer: I am not bearish nor am I bullish. I don't hold a macro outlook. I simply react to what the market tells me. This was just a fun hypothetical.
AMEX:SPY
by Huntz
S&P500 Valuation RiskThe S&P500 has made a very large run up starting with the coronavirus liquidity crisis dump, and the entirety of that run up has been in an ascending wedge. This run in my mind has been mainly fueled by capital flight away from the dollar due to rampant inflationary activities at the Federal Reserve that go beyond the observed prior trend of the M2 supply. The fundamental situation of the economic strength (more specifically lack thereof) of the US does not warrant record high valuations, I believe this has only happened because of a combination of the uncertainty of the buying power of the dollar combined with the unprecedented low federal funds rate (interest rate for large institutions) of 0.05% and the recent rules change completely removing any reserve ratio requirement. TLDR: Infinite free money season for Vanguard, State Street, Black Rock. The key driver of this monetary expansion is likely to be found in the Federal Government balance sheet, They are increasing their debts rampantly beyond the point where it could ever be reasonably collected via even the most oppressive taxation. The way they intend to collect the bill for what they are buying is to make the paper currency worth SIGNIFICANTLY less. Trade deficit is enormous. Raw material shortages. Unemployment booming. Experimental drug mandates for workers. Nothing about the current situation points to a healthy economy, yet the valuations of stocks in relation to the total monetary float are enormous even after correcting for that expansion in monetary float. We have all seen bailout after bailout of unstable companies, and market segments over the last two years and I do not think these market segments are all of a sudden healthy (relative to their valuation). I think it would be almost nonsensical to think that more bailouts and more new issue currency being sprayed out by washington and their banking allies will not happen as a result of the downturn. Nobody seems to mind PE ratios in the hundreds or thousands, and they just keep buying, but will the institutions continue buying forever or will the straw break the camels back? This is quite troubling as the S&P is currently sitting at a ratio that has held for at least 60 years as the top with the sole exception of the 2000 dotcom bubble. I think we on or near the cliff edge of a very different kind of crash than we normally see. What I am suggesting is not that the S&P will drop, but I am also not suggesting that it will not drop. What I am suggesting is that either it will drop or inflation will kick in to a greater degree than ever before. I think it is very possible for the buying power of the S&P to go down at the same time as the numerical price going up. Likely price would go down at first which would result in a reaction from the federal reserve to accelerate our favorite printer. HOWEVER: I think the gains will never make it to the dining room table as those gains will be nothing more than inflation taxed away as capital gains, resulting in a massive bleed of buying power. I urge the reader to take caution and consider the possibility and real risk of making huge profits on paper but ending up in a worse financial situation as a result. I do not think that selling assets will help in any way. I do not think that going for the assets with high PE ratios and hoping for them to go even higher will help either. I do not think that gold or silver will save you as they are easy to counterfeit as paper, and impossible to shove down the internet tubes (unless counterfeit). I think the natural response to this should be to take all bets off the economy and move heavily into the competitors to Fiat currency. Bitcoin was specifically designed to consume money markets in times just like these, it is the Great Consumer, and its dinner time. PS: In the linked Ideas I have included a monthly candle chart with the same lines, and the M2SL monetary supply chart with some information.
SP:SPXShort
by FlyTheElephant
3