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SPX Printing A MASSIVE Bubble. Be Very Careful !!On the left side of the chart i've compared a chart from 1891 - 1935 to show the similarities between chart back then and todays after the dot-com bubble. The orange chart is not stretch out or anything. It is there to show that when the bubble popped, price did eventually fall below the bottom of the previous sideways range (orange box). In '29 chart also reached above all the fib. extension levels, just like it is doing right now as it is preparing for the final blow of top which is in my opinion only a few % away. I did the same price comparisment with DJI index in one of my ideas, where the price behaves almost the same as it was from 1915-1929. Really scary stuff if you think about it. Wonder how will that effect the crypto market as it has never experienced a REAL stock market crash. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well. SP:SPX
SP:SPX
by AVA37
Consumer Staples ETF for Uncertain Times, VDCConsumer staples/Consumer defensive stocks are a sector that is exactly what the name suggests. They are products and services that no matter the situation consumers are unable or unwilling to go without. Examples include, Walmart, Costco, Coca-Cola, Colgate-Palmolive, etc. These big name household staples are unlikely to give you the astronomic growth of the newest tech startup or revolutionize their industry but they do have some very appealing attributes that may make investors want to include them in their portfolio. 1) They Don't go Backwards: Too often investors are focused on the upside and not enough on the downside. Just like that new technology company experienced huge growth by replacing the technology before it so to will it eventually be replaced. Consumer staples do not suffer from this need to constantly innovate, they exist to provide goods and services that are generally essential for our continued existence and so consumers are are unable to easily replace them with a new product. Of course no business is immune to failure but generally the companies that exist in the consumer staples sector will retain their value over time. 2) Safety During Economic Downturns: During periods of economic hardship consumers may decide to completely abandon purchasing anything except the essentials needed for everyday existence. This will inevitably result in decreased profits for most businesses in the economy but not so much the consumer staples. While they may also experience decreased profits, the decrease in revenue is capped for consumer staples by the fact that people still have to eat, brush their teeth, and clothe themselves, this results in businesses in the consumer staples sector generally outperforming during economic downturns. 3) Inflation Resistant: Businesses in the consumer staples sector are able to effectively price higher inflation into their products and services. When high inflation puts excessive upwards pressure on prices consumers will start to taper their purchases of luxury and non-essential items, this generally means these businesses have to reduce prices to maintain sales or accept a decrease in revenue. Businesses who offer staple goods and services are not as prone to suffering from this phenomenon and can more easily price inflation into their products. This makes consumer staples an excellent hedge against inflation. The easiest way for new or "lazy" investors to gain exposure to the consumer staples sector is to use an ETF. I recommend using the Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC). This ETF has 97 holdings diversified across the consumer staples sector, its top 10 holdings are: 1 Procter & Gamble Co. 2 Walmart Inc. 3 Coca-Cola Co. 4 PepsiCo Inc. 5 Costco Wholesale Corp. 6 Philip Morris International Inc. 7 Mondelez International Inc. 8 Altria Group Inc. 9 Estee Lauder Cos. Inc. 10 Colgate-Palmolive Co. With the multiple headwinds currently facing the markets including, out of control inflation, China's property market collapsing, irresponsibly loose monetary policy, and record high valuations across every asset class, now is a good time to make sure you have exposure to an ETF like VDC that can help you weather an impending financial disturbance. *Not a recommendation to buy or sell*
AMEX:VDC
by MarkE
Best time to sell your AAPL stocks!Apple is about to hit tremendous $3 trillion ($3,000,000,000,000 just look at that number!!!) market cap. The stocks are overbought on there's too much hype of Apple products, which are way too overvalued. The problem is not that it is overvalued by Apple company, it's ok, they define the price what they want. The problem is that it is overvalued by shareholders, the greed on Apple hits all time limits. We can see on the monthly chart that Apple did more than 20% within last 40 days. Taking into account its market cap and amount of money involved to make these 20%, its ridiculous and fake. On a monthly chart we're currently in greed/delusion stage of a bubble, where too much public keeps buying overvalued stocks. I expect the price to keep growing a liitle more time and eventually bump into $190-$198 resistance and start collapsing. There's a fibo on the chart with important support levels to drop to. I drew it on a 12M chart (1 candle = 1 year). Historically before Apple was respecting fibo correction and was always retracing down to 0.5 or 0.618 on a yearly chart. This time I expect it to do the same. And as usual - please DON'T LIKE and DON'T FOLLOW me if you don't like my idea :)
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by poplach
5
ETFs and rising concerns (TL;DR at end)ETFs are by far the most popular form of investment, regardless of whether you are a parent saving up for your child's college or you're a multi-millionaire/billionaire banker, a good portion of your investments will be in exchange traded funds, regardless of whether that fund is for commodities, industries or indexes. Since their first implementation in the 1990s, they've have grown rapidly as seen in the thumbnail of this idea ( AMEX:VOO ). In the words of Mr. Buffett himself, there is only one problem with index funds: "they're boring". You can't stand with your friends on the weekend at the barbecue and talk about all the trades you've made in response to crazy market action because you've got some fund manager who just holds the stock of everybody worth holding (in theory). All you do is put more money into it, or take money out of it. However, recently I came to the realisation (like many other investors), they're becoming ludicrously priced. Not just the individual price but the overall market cap with companies like Blackrock and Vanguard holding quite conceivably hundreds of billions if not trillions of dollars within ETFs. Now there are concerns regarding a potential crash in the ETF market or at least the funds that trade through indeces. As far as the cause of such crash, I wouldn't dare attempt to make some degree of educated guess as anything could happen. One may consider me rather cynical when it comes to this topic but I'm sure I'm not the only person who has a problem with losing money. Now there is absolutely nothing one can do about a crash but there are other solutions to minimise losses especially in a market that is trading so dangerously high. I would personally (assuming I had the financial capacity) take out around 60-75% of my overall investments in ETFs and transfer them to AAA rated state issued bonds or simply reinvest the money in stocks I already hold. Then I would continue my regular dollar cost averaging approach to investment in ETFs (or whatever the frequency is that you add money to such funds) until such a crash may occur. At a given point, (depending on the fund and how severe the crash is) I would increase the frequency and amount of money I add to such funds as the price drop should cause them to appear very attractive. Understandably, many people will disagree with this approach as you are still setting yourself up to lose money (unless you remove all your money from the funds, while you still could potentially continue earning. This results in the investor being left in some sort of dilemma. Although this is another discussion for another day) and "past performance is no indicator of future results" but this is the approach I would take. As usual, other opinions, facts, news and comments are always welcome so comment away and stay safe! TL;DR: ETFs are trading very high in price (dangerously) and a potential crash is luring (if you have a cynical outlook).* *See the last paragraph on what I would do, due to such a situation being upon us.
AMEX:VOO
by Michael_Axio
Will the madness keep up? Or are we beginning a down trend? TSLAShort on Tesla so long as we stay below the yellow trend line not sure if it is ready to continue upwards without another retest at 1000 and perhaps a break here could lead back down to 900. Tesla is a mixed bag. Increasing EBIDTA looks good. Decreasing debt looks good. Debt to Equity ratio decreasing. Solid company. But the P/B and P/E ratios are high indicating that Tesla is overvalued. There is clearly a lot of faith for the future put in Tesla, will the time come for it to drop back down to a more representative valuation or will the madness will continue some more? Might add to my short if the RSI hits overbought on this run upwards, perhaps this is the highest we see the price before a dip to 1060/1000. Let me know your thoughts below. Constructive criticism and alternative viewpoints are always welcome. Please leave a like if you enjoy my analysis :) And as always Good day to you :)
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by SaucyLettuce
BTC Bubble and Return to the MeanI'll be the first person to call myself a Bitcoin bull. I have been daily cost averaging Bitcoin as an investment for a while now, but I am also realistic about the asset and know that no amount of hopium can make what I want happen unless the market wills it to be so. So, with that preface, I give you my projection for the next year. As with all long timeframe projections, this is just an educated guess using historical data. I have no special crystal ball and I don't have any super powers that let me see in to the future. If you have been trading markets for any length of time, you've probably come across an image often referred to as the "Anatomy of a Bubble" that illustrates the 5 Stages of A bubble . While I don't think Bitcoin is going to completely collapse, all markets experience periods exuberance which lead to this pattern. To illustrate my idea more clearly, I've created this handy infographic to accompany my chart analysis If we zoom out on the weekly chart, we can see that Bitcoin has been in a nice and clean upward channel since, at least, August 2011. At this scale, each cycle can be clearly seen, each extending above the EQ, sometimes touching but always coming close to, the upper mark of the range. This most recent cycle, began in March 2020 with the global market panic that crashed not just crypto but also legacy markets around the world. By February 2021, Bitcoin had reached the EQ of this trend channel and there it remained, unable to continue, for the next two months, finally losing momentum in May, unable to have a high extend up and reach the EQ for another time. Now look back at the prices one year earlier, in 2019, we see a similar pattern. Price started around halfway between the range lows and the EQ, proceeded up to the EQ where it remained for a couple of months, eventually dropping back down to the range lows... Look again at the pattern for 2020 to present... looks familiar, does it not? If we assume patterns repeat, at least approximately, we can project forward from where we are today and see what the rest of the year is likely to look like. As of the time of this writing, prices are below the 0.5 DOW marker and while it's still early in the week, the current weekly candle does not look promising. Unless major support is found in the next couple of days, I expect price will continue to retrace to the 0.382 fib, just as it did back in 2019. From there, I expect we will find support, at least temporarily, a rally from there will lead us back to the golden pocket between 0.618 - 0.65 and if we are unable to break through the infamous 42k boundary and hold it, I fully expect panic will set in for many retail traders and investors which will drive us in to the capitulation and despair phase of the cycle, down to around $20k at the 0.236 and the ATH that was set back in 2017. As I said in the beginning of my post, I am bullish on Bitcoin from a hyper macro perspective, but it's not a straight line, so buckle your seat belts. The road is about to get even bumpier.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by tedwardd
WHALES WANT YOU TO BUYLook at a weekly perspective, whales are not trying to buy at this prices, they are trying to sell the crypto they posses. Always the crypto crashes are fast and then it consolidates for at least 6 to 8 months. We are gonna see a lot of bull traps to make us think it will go to the moon. 30K. First take profit for short. And if we have the oportunity to buy at 14k- 8k (The fixed range and volume of interest for whales massive buy) will be ideal for a new cycle of bull trend. Cryptos are very interesting right now i'm not gonna lie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by tariytrading
2
Low Cost Index Funds and the "bubble"As the majority of the investment community is aware, low cost index funds such as the iShares CSPX are a great way of investing your money in such a way that it will beat inflation and any other factors that will reduce the overall value of your money. Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) is notorious for recommending low cost index funds to those who are inexperienced in the stock market and even long term investments. There have recently been many arguments that made me question the integrity of this seemingly flawless investment ideology. Even Buffett said the "only" downfall to index funds is that they are, and I quote, "boring". These arguments that have sparked up across the internet are by those who fear that the inherent price of these index funds are far beyond their actual value despite them holding the top performing stocks in the market. Thus removing the need for investors to investigate individual companies and rather stand at the sidelines and say "Just buy them all and see what wins". This attitude towards index funds and the ludicrous prices/growth (in comparison to any other listed entity and their own past) has sparked major concern. I have provided a link to a video below that discusses the 2 opposing ideas presented by Warren and Michael Burry (Famous for his prediction of the stock market crash of '08) and what each of them mean. From my view point (albeit mildly inexperienced) has led me to believe that in the long run despite the concerns, there will be crashes, like every other market ever, but these crashes will be shrunk by the overall growth in the following years and or decades, therefore making it worthwhile to invest in such index funds while dedicating at least 5% of your portfolio in individual stock. TL;DR: It is inevitable that there will be a crash in all index funds at some point or another (that cannot be changed) but in the far longer term view, it will still be worth your time, money and effort to invest in such equities.
LSE:CSPXLong
by Michael_Axio
Bitcoin put your seatbelt onThe greedy pigs (that sounds so violent lol) might be very close to coming back. Pig is what are called greedy gambling type "investors" that join at the top of bubbles, not my word. "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered", an old Wall Street saying. I recently saw a man talking to a homeowner outside not too far, asking him if he knows someone that could work, I think he was putting "looking for workers" papers in mailboxes. In France. No one wants to work anymore. Companies are desperate for workers. Looks like a big population of potential gamblers that didn't work for their money and with way too much free time on their hands. 200k seems far but based on BTC past price action it could seriously be just 1-2 months away. And it's all going to be the exact same story (not calling a top): Gosh. I love roasting them SO MUCH. The few gamblers that survived will get their dream in the end. Out of the emotional gamblers with no rules of 2018 I would not be surprised if not 1 in 100 will make it to 200,000. Of course, as always this tiny minority will show itself, looking for revenge and opportunities to say "told you so". How about the other 99 gamblers that got broken? I know some people really wanted to shut their mouths, but the vast majority got crushed and isn't around anymore to get their mouths shut. And of course the ones still around are the survivors with survivor bias. Life is not fair, there are always a few lucky people that survive. But does it really matter? Being envious, jealous, angry, resentful is a punishment in itself. Good for them. Let's focus on our own performance. Not even the money, the perf. To be honest I'm acting all emotionally strong giving this speech but in reality it is I have such contempt for them that like... Whatever some ants are joyful lol. Exit plan anyone? Ye I'll just use my empathy (ability to sense people emotions). When they go foam at the mouth crazy I'll be looking to sell / place a tighter stop. I don't really have an exit plan. Important warning: Unless you are an advanced investor and absolutely confident in what you are doing, have some exit strategy planned in advance. Would be a shame to risk 1%, be up 30%, then only get 5%, or as many do "breakeven" (these guys risk all profit the whole 30% but not that last 1% oh the mighty logic). Don't want to end up not knowing what to do. Dayum think about it BTC has kept doing the same thing, the 2017-2019 gamblers were persuaded it would go way up. They held through pain. And then give up right before it shoots up. And now it's indeed doing what they expected. No rules. Full emotions. It did exactly what they expected topkek. They must be so upset. I'd literally spawn rabbies viruses any time I hear a friend talk about BTC, or hear it on the tv, if I was them. Daaaaaaym, that's so embarassing too. I couldn't live with myself. Even with a crystal ball they'd lose money. Clearly not anyone can be an investor. Not sure the right mindset can be learned. Literally my very first trade was me finding a high risk to reward with PAINT in NEO (/antshares) years ago. "Wow I can just risk that little and make this much? HOLY!". Also got hyped by insane arbitrage opps in crypto 2018, while "they" all were screaming at brokers for not letting them buy and sell at litteral random prices XD I swear, they did not even look at the price (was off by over 50% after some maintenances). You got to have solid guts and be ready to take risks, but be somewhat nitty picky at the same time.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by MrRenev
2
Dotcom compared to today's Cryptocurrency Market - Watch Out!An online survey of 1,338 Americans by Money Magazine in 1999 found that nearly one-tenth of dot-com investors had at least 85% of their money in internet stocks. Everyone, everywhere was daytrading dot-com stocks in late 1999. According to the Intelligent Investor, what many people feared was bumping into somebody at a barbecue who was getting even richer even quicker by daytrading dot-com stocks than they were. CNBC published the following headline on April 9th, 2021: Investors have put more money into stocks in the last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined . I was stunned by this. $569 billion has flowed into global equity funds in a period of only 5 months, compared with $452 billion going back to the beginning of the 2009-2020 bull market. Unadjusted to inflation, this equals to a 24x times shorter period! An online survey of 1,338 Americans by Money Magazine in 1999 found that nearly one-tenth of dot-com investors had at least 85% of their money in internet stocks. (src: The Intelligent Investor) In a survey conducted in a FB group with over 250k members by me, 71% of the candidates said they have more than 85% of their total investing portfolio fund allocated to cryptocurrencies. The second most voted answer accounted for 10% of the candidates having 6 - 10% of their portfolio allocated to cryptocurrencies. The FB cryptocurrency investing group grew from 37.5k group members in March, 2020 to around 250k currently. Representing an increase of 570% in users. Out of the data above we can conclude the average newcomer to cryptocurrencies isn't safely diversfied in different asset classes. In a more anonymous survey, almost 60% of candidates admitted they have between $1,000 and $10,000 invested in cryptocurrencies. 8% of candidates had less than $1,000 invested whereas a same percentage had $50,000 or more invested. See Graph: How much money people have invested in cryptocurrencies The following Medium article dates back to May 8th, 2018, 4 years ago: 12 Graphs That Show Just How Early The Cryptocurrency Market Is . It predicted the evolution of the cryptocurrency market partially with the beginning stage of the dotcom bubble. The article was a success and scored well on the accuraccy of the overall predictions. One of the metrics compared were cryptocurrencies unique addresses (users) that would grow from 25M to 80M in 2021. At the time of writing there are 78 million blockchain wallets: www.statista.com In comparison, internet users increased from 70M to 400M in 2000 at the time of collapse: www.researchgate.net On January 2022, we could witness bearish action as we enter a new 4-year cycle if we divide Bitcoin's cycles by longterm bearmarkets on the logarithmic scale: Thanks for reading this article, trade safe!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by jonathanvn
1
Big Bubble in US tech stocksNO VOLUME and making new highs, BEARISH DIVERGENCE, as you know APPLE is one of the major stocks for the US economy, I can see that right now theres is a big bubble around american tech companies, (google, amazon, facebook, etc) So in the next coming years we MIGHT see a huge crash in american stocks, and by consequence in US economy. And Im not sure about this crash because the US goverment cannot allow something like this, but in this world anything is possible. If there is any grammatical mistake I´m sorry, bout right now I´m very drunk this is an experiment to see if being drunk is good for the analisys.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Ylesc4s
2