Is Evergrande the next Lehman Brothers ??China`s economic model is based on real estate investment to drive growth. 20 Mil apartment buildings per year.
China`s residential property is 20% of GDP every year. Too much!
Real estate activities in China close to 30% of GDP every year. Huge!
Chinese Government is Bashing the private sector, look at GOTU and BABA for example.
Evergrande, second largest property developer in China has more than $300 billion in debt!
Evergrande has $83.5 million interest payment Sept. 23 and a $42.5 million payment on Sept. 29
Failure to to pay in 30 days can put Evergrande in default.
Today Evergrande has a Market Cap of 30.099B! At its peak, Evergrande was traded 13.5X higher!
Evergrande’s potential debt blowup can send shock waves through financial markets!
Today was just the beginning.
Bubble
How The Everything Bubble Will Burst...And How To Profit From It
I also created a video about my post for those that prefer to watch it here it is:
www.youtube.com
It also contains all the graphs and charts which unfortunately I can not post here.
More and more market participants are talking about rising inflation and the everything bubble being the buildup to an epic crash. But is this really true? Can markets go anywhere but up?
So far since the beginning of 2020
Oil is up 103%
Gas 94 %
copper which is key in all our electronics is up 126%
iron the most used metal is up 150%
coffee is up 101%
corn is up 78%
wheat 49%
and sugar 87%
The housing market is up, the collectible market is up and the stock market does not look any different.
The S&P 500 has recovered above pre covid levels and gained 100 % from the bottom all the while setting 43 all time highs year to date literally a new all time high every 3.5 days in 2021 and on track to beat the record of 77 yearly all time highs in 1995.
Running hot? Maybe a little... Or maybe the economy is just growing at a really fast pace? Looking at the ratio of market value to GDP however the markets are extended over a large margin to where they should be in relation to GDP.
So whats going on here? Are we really in an everything bubble that is going to pop and if so how can you invest so that you make money? Before we can answer these questions we need to understand what a bubble is.
Whats a bubble
A bubble is defined as an economic cycle characterised by a rapid increase in market value particularly of asset prices. It is commonly accepted that bubbles arise due to the psychology of investors. They can appear across single assets, asset classes or entire markets.
Bubble Cycles
Bubbles always follow more or less the same pattern as we will see when we look at some bubbles that have occurred throughout history. At first things start slow as the smart money and early adopters get in on the trade.
More and more professional investors start to pile in as the price starts to increase leading to awareness of the opportunity to rise until it breaks into the public.
As more and more people learn about the trade and jump in because of greed and fear of missing out price starts to really take off and run away from fundamental valuations. It is this stage where mass psychology gets more and more amplified feeding into itself leading to enthusiasm turning into greed and delusion as prices reach higher and higher.
The stock market is a zero-sum game the profits of one market participants are anothers losses. The more retail is buying the more profits the smart money are taking.
This then is one of the most telling signs of a bubble: retail investors coming in and pushing prices ever higher left to hold the bag when the smart money ultimately leads the market lower in taking all their profits.
Famed investor Jim Chanos is warning about exactly this and just said in an interview with CNBC “The problem with getting more people, retail, involved is that it always seems to happen toward the end of every cycle. Retail wasn’t there at ’09 at the bottom. They weren’t there in ’02 after the dot-com bubble collapsed. They were certainly there at ’99,”- (Buying at the top that is) He goes on to say:
“(So) the problem in the last few cycles as I see it is that we get promotors and insiders and people who have done very well cashing out as retail is buying.”
Past bubbles and crashes
Lets take a look at some of these past bubbles to see how they stack up to where we are today.
What is widely considered to be the mother of all bubbles became known in history as tulip mania. It is one of the prime examples showcasing how irrational behaviour leads to asset prices rising to unsustainable levels before they finally collapse.
In 1630 tulips which had only been introduced to Europe in the 1600's were starting to be perceived as special and rare. This prompted speculation in the tulip market shortly after leading prices to increase by 2000 % between November 1636 and February 1637 before plummeting by 99 % in May 1637. During this period of time some tulips were costing as much as a house clearly showcasing the disconnect from fundamental values and the greed and mania involved which are key characteristics of bubbles. One can't help but see the parallels in looking at prices that some digital or physical collectibles are commanding these days.
Cryptopunk and Axie Infinity are just two examples of NFT's that can cost much more than even the most lavish of mansions. The most expensive crypto punk so far has been sold for 8 million dollars. The most expensive NFT so far Beeple’s, Everydays ” The First 5000 Days” sold for a staggering 69 million dollars. But also many physical collectibles are commanding hefty premiums with the most expensive Pokemon card having been sold for 369.000 dollars. Almost a bargain in comparison to some NFT'S.
Well to be fair though at least when the price of NFT's approaches its fair value somewhere closer to zero you will always still be the proud owner of your virtual good whereas the tulip will not only have lost its value but have withered away completely.
Japan
In our modern time many speculative bubbles have been attributed to overly lax and stimulative financial policies of central banks. Japan's economic bubble of the 1980's is a prime example for this. After Japan entered a recession in 1986 the government countered with huge monetary and fiscal stimulus. The resulting free and abundend liquidity led to rampant speculation in the japanese stock and real estate market with prices increasing by 300 % between 1985 and 1989 and retail going all in. The bubble burst when the fiscal stimulus was withdrawn in 1991 ushering in what is now known as the lost decade due to slow economic growth and deflation. Today 30 years later the Japanese market is still trading below its 1991 highs.
Dot com bubble
In the 90s the internet was a rising star and with it many companies trying to commercialise its tremendous potential. Venture capitalists caught on early and in easy monetary conditions were throwing money at dot com startups. The public started catching on in 1995 and retail trading became more and more popular. Everybody was sure that there was nowhere but up for internet stocks no matter what they did or whether they even had revenues. In 1997 record amounts of capital flowed into the NASDAQ. New online brokers were making it more accessible for the average Joe to buy and sell shares and everybody was buying into the trade of a life time. At the height of the bubble their advertisements were showing that trading is an easy way to riches. Between 1995 and 2000 the NASDAQ rose by 500% from below 1000 to over 5000 points. When nobody was left to buy the bubble finally burst and the NASDAQ lost nearly 80%. At this point even blue-chip tech stocks like Intel were down by 80%. What followed was an extended bear market and a slow recovery. It should take until 2015 for markets to recover to previous levels.
The dot com bubble actually spawned another bubble on its own as investors fleeing stocks piled into the real estate market. This became known as the US housing bubble which in the mid 2000s collapsed leading to a worldwide economic crisis today known as the great recession.
To support the world economy during this time the central banks of the world started implementing quantitive easing basically increasing the money supply by lowering interest rates and purchasing assets in order to help the economy recover. At this point unprecedented amounts of money were newly created and injected into the economy. Shockingly this actually continued until 2018 when the US Fed started to taper its asset purchases which caused a liquidity crisis in the markets that after 10 years of a non stop FED powered rally were not prepared to come back to reality.
As we have seen these bubbles develop and burst over and over again following the same pattern. The reason for this is that financial markets like the whole bubble dynamic are entirely driven by human psychology which is best illustrated in the different phases of bubble or market cycles.
Where are we in the cycle
Fast forward to today.
We have been in a central bank induced bull market since we came out of the last recession in 2008. In 2020 COVID hit and as result the markets collapsed and millions of people lost their jobs as the world battled lockdowns that led to stores and factories closing.
The worlds central banks jumped in swiftly - injecting more liquidity into the system than ever before. They cut interest rates to zero and started large asset purchase programs in addition to the government relief programs handing out money to everybody.
Just between March and June 2020 the money supply in the US increased by 300 % the largest spike ever. 40 % of all dollars in existence were printed within the last 12 months.
This flood of new free money quickly found its way into the stock markets since due to low interest rates lower risk assets are not yielding returns. Leaving investors no alternatives but to rotate to riskier higher yielding assets which today is known as TINA: there is no alternative.
As we have seen earlier this flood of money combined with supply chain shortages caused by Covid lead to rampant price inflation throughout different asset classes within a short amount of time. It sure looks like we are in bubble territory but where are we within the cycle?
One key characteristic of any bubble nearing its peak is the involvement of the general public or retail crowd. Therefor the degree to which retail investors play a part in the current boom cycle plays a key role in understanding where we are in the bubble. So what does the data tell us
Retail participation in bubbles
Since the beginning of the pandemic the amount of retail brokerage accounts opened has skyrocketed. Rxxbin Hxxd now has 18 million users almost doubling their amount of users before the pandemic started. They introduced fractional shares allowing you to start investing with as little as 1 dollar. Their advertising message is everybody is an investor and I guess in a bubble everybody is. The interest for trading has spiked online and offline. You know its getting sketchy when your little niece asks you for stock tips.
But there is not only more retail trading the new traders are also younger and more inexperienced. A large part of todays market participants has never even seen a market correction of more than 10 % let alone a true recession. It is no surprise than that these investors are overly optimistic and can not believe the market can go anywhere but up.
(It sure seems though that history is set to repeat and most of the retail crowd will be left holding the bag instead of taking home the tendies. As an old saying on wallstreet goes:
“A man with money meets a man with experience. The man with the experience leaves with the money, while the man with money leaves with experience.”)
The only thing more telling than the growing number of retail traders is the amount of money that has been flowing into the market.
Over the last 25 years global equities had inflows of 727 billion USD cumulatively. Now hold on tight because this is truly crazy. Global equity inflows for 2021 annualized amount to 1.015 trillion USD. Yes thats right trillion not billion almost 300 billion more than have been flowing into the market over the last 25 years combined coming in in just one year. Over 80 % of these flows have gone into passive funds, ALL US, ALL LARGE CAP. At the same time margin debt has risen to historic highs as well. Market participants have never been this leveraged before.
These days in the light of the FED support there is only one mantra driving the crowd: buy the tulip uhhh... dip.
Crash scenario
It seems then that retail is indeed all in or at least getting pretty close. Looking at these unprecedented huge inflows into equities and the retail trading frenzy it sure looks like we are in the last cycle of the bubble but how and when is it going to pop?
There are currently many challenges ahead that might trigger a bigger correction or crash leading to these bubbles to burst. Lower vaccine efficacy and the spread of the delta variant are impacting supply chains putting more pressure on already elevated prices and slowing down the Chinese economy. The FED starting to taper into a slowing recovery might as well be a recipe for the crash that we have been waiting for.
But whatever event is going to trigger the sell off every day margin debt is growing the resulting margin call avalanche that will ensue is getting bigger and bigger making sure that whatever correction we will see will not be a small one and might even trigger a recession.
How to profit from this
It sure seems like the central banks are running out of options and it will be very interesting to see how they respond to this.
So when is this going to pop? It is very difficult to time market tops or bottoms due to the psychological nature of market cycles. As we have seen when looking at historic bubbles they can stretch on for years before they reach their peak. As they say on wallstreet: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
In the past the yield curve has been a great leading indicator to detect a recession ahead. Of course there is no guarantee this will be predictive again but there is a good chance since ultimately it is down to smart investor behaviour. In any case watch out for the yield curve inverting as a warning signal.
Nobody knows what event or chain of events will cause enough market participants to panic sell and trigger a crash. However being aware of these cycles and roughly what part of the cycle we are in allows you to manage your portfolio in a way that you can make money instead of loosing it. As promised lets look at how to do exactly that.
Lets assume that your portfolio is already well diversified. Now your goal is to maximise your profits and minimise your risk therefor you want to have liquidity available to buy into a crash and at the same time protect your existing portfolio from losses. There are different ways to do this but my preferred way is to keep taking profits on a regular basis on all my positions. The resulting profits are partly held in cash or liquid inflation protected assets and the other part is used to build a position that is going long volatility.
The current market has very low volatility. The only way is up and there are only minute corrections to the downside that are immediately bought up. This means the VIX a measurement for volatility is trading at relatively low levels. A big correction or crash in the overall market will lead the VIX to spike up. Thus going long volatility while buying the VIX with futures, options or ETF's earns our portfolio excellent protection from the crash.
If you balance the VIX position and your portfolio out correctly you can easily cover all losses with the VIX position all the while being liquid enough to buy into the crash in order to profit from the recovery that inevitably will ensue.
CSCO Log Chart AnalysisGood reclaim of important monthly level, I'd prefer to see a nice retrace back to 57s but the opportunity cost may outweigh the better entry. We're entering peak euphoria ranges from the internet bubble... if we escape this range, north of $82 the fun really starts. All time highs are a mere 40% away, with 50%+ upside from there.
Take profit levels marked using fib retracement of the internet bubble top and bottom. I expect this to run from this spot, good R:R with scaled stops under the monthly level.
Considering this analysis was done at high time frame, it may take a while to play out. Below 53.41, I think this trade is invalidated.
NDX (Nasdaq) one of the possible moves. Possibility of dotcom2.0Hey, this is one of the possible moves in of $NDX, the index is overbought and it needs to cool off, maybe we see a market crash (or just a big correction) in February 2022.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
P.S I will be glad if this is not gonna happen. If this happens many people will lose their savings.
P.P.S If we see market crash it will not be as 'light' as 2008 but more like as it was in 2000 (dot com crash) or even as hard as the Great Crash (1929 aka the Great Depression).
Prediction from time traveler from 2049 FINAL WARNINGA Human being iluminaise in the dark forest, come to me to make a sacrafice.
Stay at present times to give us final warning about War and global warming.
Nowadays a beginning of new bubble taking place...
NFT of course I tell. To our planet Earth not going well.
In Cincinnati after secet meeting of iluminatii. They decide to not warn us of NFT ravages colide.
Because in late 2048 they have to merge with AI ... Make new Human race to expand in cosmic grace.
In 2031 brutal conflict going place ... 2037 Robots doing well it's hard to Spell In 2049 Skynet arrives and human history ends...
QFIHR-3990-IX the Human Hybrid Robot from the future.
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs.
ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains
extremely negative @ 38%.
Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr
approaching 1% from YCC.
The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing.
USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove
assets higher within the Negative DX Trend.
A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long
DX Trade which Specs chased is failing.
FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme.
Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish.
Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations
for the move higher was not met.
_________________________________________________________________
*** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes.
NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining.
August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is
beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated.
The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted.
We remain Neutral into NFP.
Mother of Market Crash is NearHere I will share my opinion about the mother of market crash, this is all about the global economy, I want to explain a little what is meant by michael burry, this has to do with elon musk and bitcoin.
Michael Burry once said: we will witness the mother of all accidents, in the midst of the greatest speculative bubble of all time. Then what does this mean? everyone is still wondering about this.
Everyone must have known that the bitcoin season will continue until the end of the year, this is called a speculative bubble if the bull is left until the end of the year, it is like a small fish eating a whale and this will probably never happen. the minor players are bound to leave before the end of the year, and this is what the big players don't want.
Michael Burry may be right again, this could be due to several factors
- United States inflation rate out of control
- Federal Reserve will raise key interest rates sooner than expected
- high unemployment rate
- Covid19
- Bank collapse
Let's try to see the chart pattern I made about bubbles
bitcoin is dancing on the edge of a knife, here I am a little doubtful about the accumulation of wyckoff and the movement is a little suspicious.
I feel like Elon Musk was hiding something during the last discussion with Jack Dorsey and Cathie Wood on the Bword show.
NETFLIX: The End Of The GROWTH Story?
While many of you might be surprised to see anyone being bearish biased on NETFLIX of all things, I say that my bias has some solid basis underneath it
Firstly, let's deal with the elephant in the room: the whole market is a massive bubble with SPY gaining more than 100% from the Lows of the COVID crash, and NETFLIX gained 104%
One might say that gaining 104% in less than a year is a spectacular achievement, however, considering the fact that the company grew its business massively since the beginning of the lockdowns, outperforming the market by a mere 4% is a sign that the investors are beginning to get skeptical about the future growth, and that is the KEY
You see, all the tech stocks are a growth story, not the value story, and by the virtue of being a growth stock NTFLX is wildly overpriced with the P/E standing at 64, while the SPY benchmark P/E stands at 34 which means that NETFLIX is trading at a 100% premium to the market and that given that SPY is now full of tech growth stocks itself which skews the P/E to the upside, while also benefiting from the passive ETF flows which have determined the rapid market growth after 2008 that outpaced the GDP growth by a factor of 5
All of the above means that the moment Netflix stops being considered a growth story it will start falling to at least cover the gap with the SPY P/E and if it gets kicked out of the index it will lose all the passive inflows and the price will halve again.
So am I convinced that the Netflix growth is over? Let's take a look at the data:
Here is an extract from the LA Times article on the company:
«The streaming giant added a mere 1.5 million paying members globally in the second quarter, which is down 85% from the same period last year when it reported 10.1 million subscriber additions. The company also added 61% fewer subscribers than it did in the first quarter when it missed projections with 3.98 million new accounts. In the U.S. and Canada, Netflix lost about 430,000 paid memberships in the second quarter»
It means that the company gained almost all of the potential subscribers during the lockdowns, that it would have been gaining for years otherwise, as those who could/wanted to subscribe did so, and the pool of those that haven’t yet is relatively small.
Also, NETFLIX is finally losing its monopoly, which once brought fat margins, as the Disney+, HBO Max, and other players are gaining market share breathing down the company’s neck, which not only adds downward pressure to the subscription price but also increases the cost of the content, as the competition for quality scripts and actors drives the prices higher
That puts Netflix- once a king reigning supreme between the rock and the hard place, fighting for the market that is not growing as fast anymore while having to Lower the subscription prices and paying more for the content simultaneously.
And Unlike Google, Amazon, or Apple that have secured near-monopoly positions, tying their customers to the ecosystems and capitalizing on the Network effect, while having aces up their sleeves like championing General purpose AI or being on the cutting edge of quantum computing, Netflix has nothing to offer outside of their small niche and what is more important, the company’s product is easily replaceable and is not essential or even unique anymore.
Summing up, while I am not saying that the stock will collapse tomorrow when the crash comes, all everything falls, NETFLIX might be the one that never recovers.
SHORT TRADE SUGGESTION: buy PUT options that are 6 months and 1 year from now at the strikes that are at -50% of the current price and keep rolling the position with time.
You might get 20:1 or even 50:1 returns if you catch the crash!
Please, support my drawings with BIG LIKE
Is LABD looking to break out of this ascending triangle?As far as popular reversal patterns go, ascending triangles are no bottom of the barrel. Although I still am a new trader, I have been committed to the market for just over 1 year. With that said I have been watching LABD/LABU in proximity of market trends. When the overall market is bullish I trade LABU with success. When Market is bearish I trade LABD with success. My number #1 rule is follow the trend. That is why I am bullish on LABD. With the market making irrational highs despite COVID fears of a new variant, I have noted that LABD make this ascending triangle formation. So far it has held true. This could just be paranoid shizophrenia (I have an MD by the way), but my inner voice has been telling me to watch biotech for the market fall. My theory is that if and when the market falls LABD is going to get pumped like there is no tomorrow, similar to the VIX. But the good part is it is not as volatile as fear is. I can trade its inverse and watch the volume in both directions. So far it seems even, so i don't think any one knows what is coming next, except for maybe the FED. Unless LABU turns around I think LABD can go up to 40, if in fact there is a bubble burst on the horizon.
Lumber bubble pops - what does it mean?Some may not be aware of the importance of lumber price movements.
Basically lumber rocketed like nobody's business, then crashed (>50% correction) pretty quickly. This post is not an analysis of why lumber prices rose so crazily. Viewers will need to do some background reading.
The collapse was the worst seen since 1978 . That's something to chew on. In essence it was a bubble that popped. It was about demand going wild for all sorts of reasons, with no true underlying 'value'. That phenomenon has been seen repeatedly across all asset classes. It happens when something is fundamentally wrong with market booms.
Those who would purchase lumber wised up; the market became saturated in extreme overbought territory, and those who would have been using lumber (for house-building etc) basically switched from 'commodity' purchases to 'services'. That's the broad brush and I can't give chapter and verse here. People went on holidays! I didn't say 'everybody'. Yes - read about it. They decided, ' Now is not a good time - I'll do some travelling and living instead '. Funny but true.
But what's underlying the lumber bubble pop, is that the Housing market has suffered a similar pop. Ahhhh.. some will disagree with me because they're not seeing much about that in the news. Well BigMedia news is usually 3 to 6 months late! And of course, people believe more than 50% of what they read in the #LameStreamMedia news - but will never admit that.
I'm not about to deviate onto the metrics for the Housing Bubble pop here. Serious traders and investors can find that on the net from reputable channels on popular non-conventional streaming channels. But don't expect the whole picture to be found in one place.
The lumber pop, in conjunction with the housing pop - is basically bad news for loads of commodity sectors. If you don't believe me go back to 2007-2009. This is literally where the 'house of cards' (pun intended) collapsed. History repeats itself because human nature doesn't change much.
Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
Fed interest rate predicts bearish marketsSo as we all know, we're in a bubble right now. Now we know that, what would be the best thing to do? What if you're on a dollar cost averaging strategy and you know we're in a bubble?
First of all, you can ride it out. This is the default strategy and there's not much wrong with that.
Secondly, if you're semi actively watching the market, you can try to anticipate on the bubble collapse which is inevitably coming by stopping your long trades. When do you know it's time to stop your long trades, since you have to know when the collapse actually starts?
I think the answer is in the fed interest rate. Each time just before the bubble collapsed, the fed interest either went up or it plateau'd on a high level. Since the fed interest rate is today still at a very low level, I think it's not yet time to stop your long trades.
Bitcoin Summer Forecast 2021Summer is hot, And the bubble just popped!
Sit back and enjoy the ride!
Great things come to those who wait!
After breaking the symmetrical contracting triangle
It's certainly text book
To retrace to the lower quadrant of that triangle before next run
Minimum retrace acceptable for me is 9.5k around the 0.382
Maximum retrace speculated to be around 7k at the 0.236
CRASH on the S&P500 and the economy / PART 2 ( Update )----------------------------------------------
REMINDER
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We did a few months ago an analysis on the S&P500 chart based on some behavior patterns, which would trigger some results, we marked some crash zones, but the fundamentals have changed this past scenario.
What is the reason for this change? The big dollar printing by the Federal Reserve and the unwary investors who have been lured by these big gains. This generated a short squeeze that has continued to drive the price higher.
The chart has changed, but what has not changed is the price projection. We are still in the Crash Danger Zone, this zone will never disappear until the market has made a deeper correction.
Pay attention, because we are facing a complex situation, and here a good management is the only thing that will help us.
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ANALYSIS
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On the one hand, we still have a prolonged Divergence, which ALWAYS triggers an extremely strong correction. On the other hand, the fibonacci calculations have been rendered obsolete by the short squeeze generated, but this has triggered a Bubble pattern. The curved red line is the guide to the pattern we are talking about.
Normally bubble patterns, when they break the curve strongly and consistently, usually lose 60% of the value of the asset, then a strong rebound to 61% Fibo, and end with a total fall of 70% 80% or 90% of the value.
After this... the market is as if it were dead. If the asset has a real and natural value... This zone becomes an accumulation zone. ( Buy )
All this mentioned is the normal behavior of this type of patterns. But as we are talking about a very important and controlled market .... We must watch all the support zones marked on the chart.
In normal circumstances or less important graphs... It should penetrate all the support zones no matter what the zones are. But in this market we must be pending in each support zone and go managing our stop loss with caution and without greed. I do not recommend looking at earnings, simply be guided by the drawing and manage well the Traling Stop.
I would like to remind anyone who has forgotten... that before a sharp fall in the market... We are warned with viruses, from 2 to 3 viruses, and then always comes the crash. I did not invent this, it is written in the chart.
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HOW DO WE MANAGE IT?
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For all this, I recommend caution.
- If you are in a trade or you are in the market, the most advisable is to have a traling stop below the bubble curve.
- For the more risky, we can prepare our progressive shorts as the price continues to rise.
- For the more conservative, you can wait for the bubble to burst and on the bounce towards the 61% fibo area, open a bearish trade.
Best of luck to all.