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Bubble

Shorting the ETH if it go below up trend lineThis have been a bullish week, and ETH ATH is in the making again and again. It is approaching 3000USD too. My idea is actually come from the GPU price and it is currently extremely out of stock in the part of the Asia (Singapore and the rest). Which totally like 2017, when everyone tryin to set up their mining with GPU and with newest Nvidia product. Hence, the crash could come soon. If I am right, just as it crash downward crossing the up trendline to confirm the crash, we can easily catch the support in the last uptrend line as in the chart. Cheers, happy trading.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by silvermerlion
RED HOT! When is the housing market going to crash?I didn't say that this post is 'red hot'. And I don't know if or when the housing market is going to crash. The captioned question in a popular search engine rose 2,450% in the past month! That must be super red hot! What's the RSI on that? 😄😂 Expand the chart by pressing the + icon, for a clearer view. There is extreme chatter in the blogosphere about housing bubbles and crashes. Some want to understand why all the interest in that. After all if something doesn't make sense what's the point of paying any further interest. Oh - except if it's US Equities and Bitcoin - right? I get it - some see sense in Bitcoin and Stock indices going north so they're ploughing their money into those two. The 'sense' is ' The FED has my back.. I'll hedge against a crashing US Dollar! '. That's all people know - I'm often told. Has the FED got your back on the price of your house? I don't think so. But I could be wrong. I'm actually wrong about 60% of the time. And nothing here is advice, anyway. So nothing I say seeks your belief. Ahhh.. so what's that crazy spike in searches on the question? Could some be worried? Oh yes the 'some' are probably those who made a killing; now looking for signs of a true peak, to dump on those looking to buy into a superheated market. They're in the search engines checking out carefully for news and early signs of a reversal. Some are nervously watching for potential rises in interest rates and hyper-inflation. Those sort of folk probably know little about technical and fundamental analysis. Is there a peak as yet in the housing market? Nobody can know because there is no dip and no double top at the leading edge, to define the peak (as yet). That means it can still go far more north - to dah Moon, for example. 😉🤐 So for those who need to understand what's going on with house prices, I speculate the following: 1. The parabolic end of the curve up suggests to me this is a stampede of competitiveness among many who think that all bearish sentiment in the economy has been crushed. These are not the likely to be a large proportion of the people searching madly the captioned question. 2. People with cheap credit have jumped on a bandwagon, thinking perhaps " A new dawn is ahead..we've beaten the virus. We have vaccines. Time to git going! Things can only get better. " You know the song? 3. Some believe that the rise in equities plus virtually unlimited monetary and fiscal stimulus means ' They've saved the economy. ' 4. Housing property prices took a leap because there was more demand for homes in the pandemic period. But that's not the only reason. Anyway the initial pump got the bull market going. Then came the stampede with some false peaks as jitters set in for shorter periods. I'm not a housing sector analyst. Now compare what happened in the CONSTRUCTION, PROPERTY & REAL ESTATE INDEX (chart below). Hmmm.. construction? Yeah.. that's nothing to do with housing - right? Think harder. Sound traders and investors know that the best moves they can make in any market involves 90% of their time spent thinking! Is the housing market in the US a bubble? You and I won't know until after the sound of a POP! If you have other ideas, do share. Let's get that discussion going. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
NASDAQ:HGX
by Captain_Walker
TSLA - THE TOP IS IN? | CORRECTION OVER? CRASH PENDING?An update on my previous TSLA forecast (linked below). Price hit the 61.8% fibonacci as expected and retraced upwards, again as expected. It has now hit serious resistance and formed an A-B-C correction pattern. The way the chart is setup with price action, stochastic and RSI, there is valid reason to believe we have just corrected after selling off deeply in the past few weeks I expect a downwards continuation to break down further past $550 and towards the $400-$500 range The EV bubble may still have further room to drop before resuming it's takeover
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by JayanVarsani
Next bubble popEach time that the cost of money increments, the bubble of the moment pops. If you check carefully, the parallel channel's upper bands (yellow ones) play the trend resistance role. If those bands are touched, I can reasonably assure that the FED will intervene in the bond market with Yield Curve Control (you don't want to have the biggest economy of the world be insolvent). The intensity of their intervention will depend on the slope of the recent spike. If the previous description occurs, the only indicator left that we will have for checking the debt market's actual economic reality is the 30-year yield. It is highly improbable that the central banks intervene those yields due to the distance in the final payment. Any thoughts or opinions are more than welcome.
TVC:TNX
by LiquidityMaster
1
Crypto currency: "The Digital Tulip"?📌 During the last five months, the price of Bitcoin increased more than five times - from $10,000 to over $60,000 while the global crypto currency market capitalization topped $1.7 trillion. When it comes to traditional assets, such a rapid rise in the value of an asset typically indicates the emergence of a financial bubble. But, what about crypto currencies? 📌 Against the tsunami of crypto currencies' market capitalization increase, financial bubbles of the past look like small and mid-size waves, historically adding 40 to 440 percent to the asset value. The value of global crypto currency markets increased almost 900% from March 2020 to today. 📌 When do bubbles usually reach their peaks? In looking at past bubbles, the longest time period is four years with an elongated period experienced by the real assets markets. If the crypto currency bubble is compared with digital asset bubbles, like the Dotcom and Biotech bubbles, it may peak 13-21 months after the bubble started to blow or between March and December 2021. Is this time different? Super-easy monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policies in the US and around the world coupled with the accessibility of financial instruments and stock exchanges for a wide range of non-professional investors may make this "digital tulip" bubble different than bubbles of the past. These factors make it more difficult to predict how much the peak value of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies can exceed their fundamental price levels defined by the cost of coin mining and infrastructure maintenance. We are expecting a Bubble crash in Crypto Market..💭 What's your views and Thoughts 💭 Please feel free to describe below.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ridethemacro
2
Tesla buy or sell? Bubble?Reasons to buy Tsla Although electric cars occupy a small portion of the global automobile market, Tesla has acquired a large market share within this niche segment. Tesla has a little less then 1% marketshare worldwide which is impressive for a young car company like Tesla. Especially in the electric segment where it has 16% marketshare in 2019. The company has a strong performance adn the unique design helps the sales. For example the preorder of the Tesla Truck. Also the solar and storage deployments will probably witness significant growth aided by the positive reception of the Megapack and Powerwall products. The delivery of Model 3 has risen significantly, which counts for a big part of the companies overall deliveries since it the best selling car of Tesla so far. Besides Model 3, Model Y is also improving Tesla’s prospects. The construction progress for Gigafactory 4 in Berlin and Gigafactory 5 in Austin are also underway, with production from both plants expected to start this year. With China being the biggest EV market, Tesla’s ambitious production plans in the country bode well. Robust production of Model 3 from the new Gigafactory in Shanghai bode well for its future growth. The Shanghai factory is ramping up well and commands a higher market share in the Chinese EV market. Over a multi-year horizon, Tesla anticipates achieving 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. Meanwhile, low leverage of Tesla offers financial flexibility. Notably, its long-term debt-to-capital ratio stands at 0.31, lower than its industry's 0.54. Historically, from 2016 to 2020 sales of TSLA increased in average of 45% from one year to another, with an estimate of 49% sales growth for 2021 and 33% for 2022. The liquidity and Solvency of Tesla are both scoring good which means Tesla is able to pay of short term as long term obligations. Reasons to sell Tesla inc The company’s high R&D and SG&A costs do raise concerns. During the last reported quarter, R&D and SG&A costs were up both yearly and sequentially. Capex soared 138% year over year and is likely to increase this year as well, thereby affecting cash flow and margins. Tesla's excessive reliance on credit sales remain a concern. In 2020, Tesla posted a net GAAP income of $721 million. Without the regulatory credit sales, the firm would have incurred a loss to the tune of $859 million. Stretched valuation of Tesla is a concern. Going by the EV/EBITDA multiple, which is often used to value auto stocks, Tesla is currently trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 187.9, considerably higher than the industry average of 52.41. The firm’s P/S ratio of 17.3 also compares unfavorably to the industry’s 3.05. Tesla bubble? Based on the future outlook of the industry and the company and considering all the discussion around TSLA bubble, it can be assessed which will be the fair value for the company at the moment. For this, the EPS reported for last quarter was taken and annualised which gives us 0,96$ per share. Based on recent developement and estimation, it is forecasted that Tesla will have an annual growth in earnings of 40% each year, first 5 years and 10% from year 6 to year 15. For safety reason 15 years is the number of years we will calculate with as there is a reasonable time to recover an investment. The forecasted EPS after 15 years based on this growth is around 12,17$ per share. Multiplying these with a decent P/E ratio of 35, the fair price would be currently below 500$, while the real price is just under 800$. Buy or not? Although it is clear that the company is the market leader and may outperform without problem any other company from the industry for the never ending future, however, following value investing principles, the current price is out of real position and may lead to the fact that the stock is overvalued. Thus, the stock may face a corrective action in the near future. However, it is a bit funny to observe that even in a period of instability and uncertainty and in this Covid-19 situation, where people use the cars a lot less, Tesla kept it's position, and even increased its position, without recording great losses. This could mean that value trading as we know, may not be applicable anymore and the investors should adjust and adapt trading principles and behaviours accordingly. If you are a value investor, like I am, then Tesla is not the right choice to invest in.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Sharona_vf
How Big is the Tech Bubble?A ratio chart divides the value of the Nasdaq 100 by the value of (S&P 500+Dow 30+Russell 2000). The large spike in the blue line to the left illustrates how the NQ became so overvalued in relation to the S&P, the Dow, and the Russell. If the ratio pulls back, I would say it may find its balance around the lower red line, after retracing the recent parabolic spike like it did in 2000. I think it will keep going higher. I think the high prices of tech stocks are more legitimate this time around. I believe I just made a "this time is different" type of comment lol. Thoughts?
TVC:NDQ
by The_Arena_Trader
4