Bubblemarket
Kodak getting pumped (and probably pumped)Eastman Kodak has has been going crazy in the passed 3 days on their adoption of "blockchain technology" (everybodies favorite buzzword). And it has grown nearly 250%. Not only is that absolutely insane for the current market but Kodak has had a losing streak pretty much since it has gone public... To top it all off, take a look at the volume: more shares have been traded in the last 3 days than have ever been traded in in Kodak's entire existence. If that doesn't ring any alarm bells, at least it adds to the long list of things that make cryptocurrency the dotcom bubble all over again.
History likes to repeatI know you call me crazy to predict prices such as 100k per BTC, however I see so huge hype on crypto market that this is possible scenario.
Bubbles have one biggest issue - nobody knows when it will break. Usually bubles grow to the levels that nobody expect. Despite we already reached unbelievable levels we may only guess where is the top.
I expect insane FOMO - at least 5 - 10k$ per week interrupted by very fast corrections.
Let's see how it will play out.
Good luck Hodlers and Gamblers
ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughtsTurns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700
So, I took a look at the Bitcoin history, as we have time right?
It seems, the excitement about bitcoin, has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market
But, previously it was not the case.
So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II.
(Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!)
Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted.
There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too.
Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are;
- Financial troubles in Greece
- Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event
- EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin ( this is my take )
There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin bubble.
Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again.
I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area.
Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC prices and other BTC exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably.
Thats all folks. Tell me what you think
Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now
We are far away from the real bubble in BitcoinThere have been many articles and rumors around the speculative price bubble forming in Bitcoin (and the cryptocurrency market as a whole)
Today, what would mean a bubble with the size of the one formed back in 2013?
It would mean a 5127% increase in the price of Bitcoin from the level it broke the resistance in its logarithmic trend. In the course of 11 months .
This equals, approximately, a price of $102,000 per Bitcoin and a market capitalization of $1.725T (One trillion and seven hundred twenty five billion dollars)
And if we hit that number we'd be all popping champagne bottles.
However, we are very far from such a bubble- $1.65T (One trillion and sixty five billion dollars) to be precise.
For that reason we can only enjoy the ride, sit back, relax and wait for the dollar to inflate itself.
To the moon!
The Five Horsemen FAANGRight now many analysts agree that the market is overvalued, but many believe that just because it is overvalued doesn't mean it needs to be corrected. Many traders now trade with cognitive dissonance because the market is overdue for a correction. Just because there may be a "bubble" that doesn't mean that it will "pop". But I think that due to and overdated correction some markets may take a hit. And especially markets that are in a "bubble" or are built upon synthetic or "abstract revenue". I think that there is a tech bubble right now, and there are clear indicators that the market is built upon what I would call "abstract revenue". "Abstract revenue" is a term that I use to call a firm that is overvalued, and has the plan to go public or grow the company. I think that "abstract revenue" comes from the Silicon Valley Mindest that "not all businesses are created equal" idea. Some of the troubles with tech startups is that the owners and investors try to scale the business as a startup, which usually tends to give companies an overvaluation or too much work for itself. Many young companies have been struggling such as Zenefits, Dropbox, Theranos, Jet.com, Flipboard, Square, Snapchat, Zirtualy, and Homejoy. But even with these murky waters investors still invest in tech, and VC-sponsorships still take firms public. Tech has grown a lot lately and that is a bit worrisome. To begin I will start off with the macroeconomic trends that I see on the public side. I will start with NASDAQ:AAPL the biggest tech firm in the world. On the balance sheet, they hold around $246 billion dollars. My first question is "why doesn't apple acquire more companies?" Which is usually responded with its overseas accounts that are better for taxes and investments. Apple doesn't necessarily need to buy companies, but if the market is going up and there is a lot of cash it is unusual on why they aren't acquiring firms right now. I want to look at Apple's latest acquisitions that can be calculated. In 2017 Apple acquired a company, Lattice Data for around $200m. In 2015 it had just raised $20m, and the company only has 20 engineers. This would mean that the company has grown 1000% in 2 years, which is a clear indicator that the company is overvalued. Apple isn't the only company that holds a lot of cash and isn't too interested in acquiring. Facebook has around $3.1 billion in cash and $6.2 in marketable securities. All of these big tech firms are holding cash, while the tech startups have been booming and they are not acquiring. Why would they not acquire? Maybe they see that the market is overvalued. But what difference does it make if the market is overvalued unless it is going to be corrected? Maybe the companies are holding onto cash to cushion themselves, but those are clear indicators among the big tech firms. On the public-side of the market, there has been less IPOs this year and if the market is performing well then why aren't they going public. On the private side, I think that many companies are overvalued, the only way to know is to look at acquisitions, young IPOs, and VC-sponsorship. Many of them are made up of small companies that I think are overvalued. In the end I believe that the tech market, the venture capitalism market, and the private tech startup market is built upon "abstract revenue" and is in a bubble. And although the bubble is not planned to pop, the market is overdue for a correction, therefore, I believe that the tech is in a bubble like situation.
BTCUSDT - Psychological Stages of a Bubble Market Psychological Stages of a Bubble Market
1. Stealth Phase
2. Awareness Phase
3. Mania Phase
4. Blow off Phase
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Types of Trends
1.
Up Trend => Rectangle => Down Trend
2.
Up Trend => Down Trend
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