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Bubbles

BITCOIN TF 1M LOOKS BEAUTIFULMy Point of View about Bitcoin still Same. I looks a Bubbles Condition at TF 1M, I saw a Double Top Pattern Which mean Price can be Drop significantly. Please use a free money for buy a bitcoin or another altcoins. I Believe Bitcoin will Hit 100K$ it just a matter of time. At this moment we must follow the news from US about Inflation. THE FED still Hawkish about USD. Stock, Crypto will be suffering again. REMEMBER ! " NEVER INVEST MONEY THAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE " Thats All For me Cheers :)
INDEX:BTCUSD
by adityahd
BTC Fundamentals and Long Term predictionsI'm horrible at technical analysis but the fundamentals of bitcoin are something I'm very familiar with. Like rats on a Caribbean Island Bitcoin will experience a hyperbolic s-curve that levels off once it: 1 reaches global forex market saturation (1-10%) 2 approaches 21M limit Along the way global economic events will create massive bubbles as collapsing economies convert fiat into cryto (presumably BTC). As the average price of BTC gets higher, and the collapsing economy's size get biggers, FOMO will make theses bubbles bigger and bigger as well (Red triangles). This is good news though, more opportunity for profit ;D When the S-curve starts to level off we might see something like this elenastreuding.files.wordpress.com or this www.google.com Its gonna be a wild ride to the top and I hope everyone makes some good money; don't forget to take profit! -Goonch Further Reading: medium.com PS - I'm mostly ignoring the first major bubble because of MTGOX shenanigans
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by The_Goonch
6
The Bubble End Game (in terms of the Dow - DJIA)OK, so this I had mapped out quite a while ago but despite my general agreement with the widely circulated May 24, 2021 Dooms Day predictions (in as much as a likely date around which the music will stop ), this (chart)setup was still missing it's trigger . - Until last Friday, that is. That last 15 minutes of trading on Friday, March, 26., 2021 was no ordinary window-dressing! That was a no-holds-barred locking onto the Final Target and simultaneously initiating the count-down, All-in . (By various players and in no small part by Sovereign Public "Investors" - i.e.; Central Banks.) If one examines the Who bought What, How and Why - and why at that exact moment -, the gig is up. - Not that those key players had any place left to hide hence, the notable drama preceding the whole event during the previous 24 hours. (I imagine that by the time of this posting it's all out there so I shall spare the repetition.) At the risk of stating the obvious, the size and enduring length of this current Speculative Bubble deserves (even demands), at the very minimum, at least an attempt to find some still unsuspecting buyers to trap and onto whom to unload as much as humanly possible before the music stops and the silence becomes deafening. - And that means; An Exponential Blow-off Top .... that was the trigger , this picture was missing, until last Friday, that is. (And Yes, last Friday's market close was the first and only trigger , in this particular frame work.) - And since nothing tickles a (historically uninformed) speculator's fancy like a no-rhyme, no-reason, all-in, exponential charge into oblivion... Well, you got it! - Or at least the beginnings of one. So, what is special about Dow 37130-37250, around the 1st week of May, 2021 that would make it a likely Final Price Target ? - Confluences! Providing a (rather obvious) Final Top between Dow 37130 - 37250; ... and potentially close to the much-touted May, 2021 time frame. ... after which, most likely; ... nothing but Gravity. Game on!!...
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Nemo_Confidat
5
GOLD to $3000 !? - Technical and Fundamental Analysis Note the similarities in price action within the highlighted areas at the levels plotted... now, let's see what happened at those times and what similarities we can find in the fundamentals. The Great Crash of ‘79 The Dow Jones Industrial index peaked at $897 on Friday October 5th, 1979. On Saturday the Federal Reserve and Chairman Paul Volcker adopted new policy procedures that would target non-borrowed reserves rather than targeting the price of reserves in the financial system. This was intended to be a better approach to controlling inflation. Note that Monday was Columbus Day and Banks were closed, the market still fell 13.6 points which by today’s standards is nothing, but back then that would have been a 1.65% drop with banks and institutions not even trading. The Dow continued to fall for the remainder of the week for a total loss of 6.53%. As if that wasn't bad enough, after a slight recovery from November 1979 - February 1980, it finally bottomed out hitting a low at $730 on March 27th, 1980 for a loss of 18.68%. What happened to Gold? For a few months gold prices stayed flat but began to rise on November 27th until they reached their peak on January 21st, 1980. Price per troy ounce went from $396 to $873, for a gain of 122.14% in 108 days. The Dotcom Bubble The Dotcom Bubble was an era where investors ignored fundamentals, basing their investments on PE ratios on future earnings, in many cases several years ahead when many of these companies had little or no current revenue. During this time, PE ratios were averaging over 44 times earnings. In 1995, the Nasdaq began the year at a price of $404. The bubble lasted a total of 5 years finally hitting its peak on March 24th, 2000 at $4816. However, speculation and overconfidence increased rapidly in the final year causing the index to rise from a price of $1836 on the opening day in January 1999 for a total gain of 162.33% in just over a year. The burst of the Dotcom Bubble lasted 2.5 years with the Nasdaq falling 505.64% until it reached its bottom on October 8th, 2002 at a price of $795. After everything was said and done only roughly 48% of Dotcom companies survived the ordeal. What the Fed did with Interest Rates... On March 3rd, 2001 the fed conducted its first rate cut of many, dropping rates 50 basis points from 6.50% to 6.00%. These cuts continued until April 26th, 2003 reaching only 1.00%. What Happened to Gold? On March 24th, 2000 gold opened at a price of $285. It continued down for nearly a full year losing 10.68% hitting a bottom at $255 before finally taking off and continuing to rally nearly until the Housing Bubble in 2008, reaching a peak on March 17th, 2008 at a price of $1033 a troy ounce. Gold rallied for a total gain of 305.29% over the course of 7 years for an average gain of roughly 43% per year. Housing Bubble After the Dotcom Bubble, mortgage rates began a steady decline due to government encouragement of broad homeownership. Banks were also lowering their lending requirements providing subprime mortgages to unqualified buyers. They were using adjustable-rate mortgages that provided very low rates for 2 - 3 years and then resetting at higher rates. House prices on average increased by 55% from 2000 - 2007. Now with prices so high, risk premiums were just not worth the investment. This caused a massive sell-off in the securities market as investors began to dump their mortgage-backed securities at alarming rates. Now let's talk numbers.... At the height of the Housing Bubble, The Nasdaq index traded at $2239 and fell 54.50% down to $1018 before recovering. The S&P 500 was trading at $1576 and fell 57.69% down to $666. On April 1st, 2001, a few days after the beginning of the crash, the S&P 500 was trading at a PE ratio of 33.96, reaching a high of 46.10 in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded at a high of $14198 before falling 54.53% to a low of $6470. Another factor to note during the Housing Bubble was the inversion of the yield curve that occurred on Jan 3rd, 2006 which many economists would signal as a potential recession in the near future. This inversion lasted 17 months. The yield curve reverted back on May 29th, 2007, 16 months later was September 29th when the market began to crash. During this time The Fed ramped up its quantitative easing efforts and increased their balance sheet from September through to December 2008 by 1.3 trillion dollars, a 143% increase. What Happened to Interest Rates? By 2006 fed interest rates were beginning to tick up from 1.00% to 5.25% on April 26th, 2007 before The Fed began making consecutive cuts starting on September 18th, 2007 all the way down to 25 basis points on December 16th, 2008. What Happened to Gold? With Gold already catching bids due to the Dotcom Bubble only 8 years earlier. Before the Housing Bubble took place, it only fell 34.13% from its highs to $681 an ounce. From that point we saw gold rally 182.48% to $1923 an ounce in just under 3 years reaching its highs on September 5th, 2011. Adding this to the Dotcom Bubble, gold had rallied 574.75% in 11 and half years. THE EVERYTHING BUBBLE Now let’s take a look at what the current market conditions are telling us. Equities Market Gains since the Housing Bubble Nasdaq – 1211.90% S&P 500 – 479.11% Dow Jones Industrial Average – 383.35% PE Ratios Nasdaq – 41.10 S&P 500 – 41.74 Dow Jones Industrial Average – 29.53 One thing to note this time around is the massive number of speculative bets in small cap stocks. Looking at the Russell 2000, the projected 12-month PE ratio is estimated to be 75.63. The cause of these high PE ratios is strikingly similar to the Dotcom Bubble as speculators are willingly investing money into these “stonks” and many, many companies that are being heavily overvalued despite the fact they are not showing any profits or revenue but are still showing an increase in stock prices. Another factor that is cause for concern is the increase in SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) IPOs that happened in 2020. Out of the 480 IPOs issued in 2020, (already a 106% increase from the amount issued in 2019 of 233) 165 of those were SPACs, again doubling the amount issued. In 2007 SPACs accounted for only 14% of the IPOs issued verses the 35% issued in 2020. Out of the $154 billion, $82.1 billion of that was raised through SPACs. This is concerning as SPACs have not performed very well over the years, showing an average return of -1.4% since 2015. Interest Rates We see similarities between interest rates as well. As with both the Dotcom Bubble and the Housing Bubble, rates before the crash were on the rise and then The Fed had to step in, to lower rates as the market was crashing. After the Housing Bubble, rates were steady at 25 basis points from December 2008 through to December 2015. The Fed began raising rates to their peak of 250 basis points until beginning their cuts on July 31st, 2019 and have since been lowered back to 0.25% on March 15th, 2020 in the height of the Coronavirus Pandemic. Housing Market We are seeing similarities in the housing market to that of the Housing Bubble with rates being at their lowest in history sitting at just 2.68% in December 2020. What’s interesting is that this is causing a lot of individuals to refinance their homes, existing home sales have been steadily on the rise since 2010 however, we recently seen it spike past the average incline in August 2020. New home sales have seen the same reaction with a spike past the average incline in July 2020 through to present data. According to Freddie Mac, average home prices are the highest in history with an average price of $324,900 on October 26th, 2020. That is a 55.90% increase since the lows during the Housing Bubble. Quantitative Easing With the Fed increasing their balance sheet at an alarming rate, this adds an additional factor we need to be worried about. As previously mentioned in 2008 we saw an additional 1.3 trillion added, this time around with the coronavirus pandemic the fed has added an outrageous 3.1 trillion dollars to their balance sheet (and this is before the most recent 1.9 trillion stimulus package Biden has proposed. Yield Curve Again, in August 2019 we saw the yield curve invert which was just 2 months after gold broke out from the 1350 level it respected from June 2013. Since then we have seen the yield curve revert back and the spread has grown but this is still cause for concern as possibly the only reason it has reverted back in the actions taken at the Fed level to try stimulate the economy. How Will Gold React? Based on the fundamental data collected, there are many reasons to see another large rally in gold prices over the coming years. Based on the technicals, we can see major similarities in price action dating back to the crash in 1979 with highs spiking through the $700 level, retracing back until the Dotcom Bubble. Price consolidated below the highs we saw in 1979 until breaking through prior to the actual market crash during the Housing Bubble. Price retraced back to that $700 level just as the market crashed sending prices soaring spiking through the $1750 level briefly before retracing back to the highs of the Dotcom Bubble around $1000 an ounce and staying suppressed below $1350 until finally breaking in late 2019 sending prices soaring through the highs of the Housing Bubble. Now just as we saw before, prices have nearly retraced back to the previous highs during a time when fundamentals are screaming for help. Now, this is purely speculation based on the data collected so don’t just take my word on it, but if history is any indication of the future, we could potentially see a rally up to the $3000 level in the coming years. Just note that throughout these 3 crashes mentioned, Gold either stayed flat or lost value for a few months after the initial crash in the equities markets. At this point the bias is still neutral as we have not got a proper signal to begin scaling in to long positions. All the data described in this post was found using manually using Tradingview charts, some data through www.macrotrends.net and finally www.federalreserve.gov History does not guarantee future results and must be respected as such. Trade and invest with caution. Do your own research and make your own decision when investing your money.
Editors' picks
COMEX:GC1!
by TheCaffeinatedTrader
104
Economic, sociopolitical, monetary news. Issue No 10.1- Brilliant US rep AOC writes a bill for all LEO to wear badge with name, forgets to exempt UNDERCOVER agents *********************** What a brilliant woman, what a success story. First woman that made me blush. Because she's so damn stupid it's embarassing. There have been people with down syndrom in governments, and they were much smarter than this. There is no excuse here, it's not political, it's not an opinion. No it's just a complete moron that attempted to write a law. And it's a complete failure. Looks like a 5 years old wrote it. Good luck explaining that one and trying to prove it's not pure stupidity. So the waitress wrote a law saying that all law enforcement officers (there are a dozen agencies, the police, CIA, FBI, etc) have to wear a badge with full name and number. "There must be no secret police". It is clearly specified to include officers in uniform and in civilian clothes. The mastermind when writing this amazin' law totally forgot about undercover agents. If voted this means spies & agent infiltrated in drug gangs would have to wear badges with all info on it 😂 Privet Vladimir, I just want to let you know that myself and 3 other high ranking military officers are spies for the US government, here is my full info, my entire family info, and agency goals. I also know endless US classified info including how to deactivate nuclear missiles. I hope this does not affect our relationship. 2- EURUSD exploding up, AUDUSD, SEKUSD, Silver. Dollar going to zero and everything else launching rockets 💸 *********************** As you'll see later in this idea, crooks of the federal reserves were complaining that investors back in March ran to the safety of the us dollar. Well they won't be disappointed now that the us dollar ponzi scheme is going to zero. If the usd were to lose massive value and Bitcoin STILL went down, I would be delighted, I would just laugh hysterically incontrollably all the time. "Here's your Bitcoin. It's 800 dollars now. And and those 800 dollars are worth 3 bricks of milk, an apple, and a nail." The stock market pyramid scheme keeps going up. Tesla is absolutely ridiculous at almost $2000 now. The past 2-3 months were painfully boring, absolutely nothing happening. Slowmode. Currencies flat. Plenty of sideways. Everything exploding now, even the S&P500 made a new high. It could be a crazy next couple of weeks, with huge moves again. 3- IMF stops country reports until April 2021 and deletes all links to 2020 ones, afraid they'll scare investors? 😂 *********************** "Quick! We can't let anyone see how desastrous the situation is! And common people are figuring out what our 'warn of risks' really mean". Here is the definition of an article iv: "During an Article IV consultation, an IMF team of economists visits a country to assess economic and financial developments and discuss the country's economic and financial policies with government and central bank officials." The IMF has pulled out of the circulation any report on 2020, and they're suspending all article iv assessments until April 22, 2021 at least. Amazin' They're still busy "warning of risks", latest one is how the crisis will affect women more and roll back all equality progress made in the last 30 years (I guess when reality hits and it's a fight for survival your pretty little affirmative action efforts kinda have to go away). Hey but wait a minute. Women are evil white supremacists and colonialists now, didn't the IMF get the memo? XD The establishment sheep mindcontrol rules change too fast even for the IMF now, I love it. Maybe women are going to even lose their right to vote, it's not impossible, historically they're quite conservative and prude (with mobs of women often peacefully protesting strip clubs and the such). A french expression states "But when what is natural is driven off, it returns at a gallop". Wouldn't take much for women to go back to their natural behavior of being less promiscuous than men, more peaceful, less rebellious etc. And when that happens, bye bye vote (again). I would drool and roll myself in my own saliva repeating how right I was all along if this happens. 4- Wonderful state of California releases Mr RTK (Rape Torture Kill) that vowed to torture little children 🤔 *********************** Ah. This guy was held for over 20 years at a mental hospital initially for a crime then they just kept him here because he swore that "If you don't cut off my penis and hands I will molest again." Oh ye, and because he calls himself Mr Rape Torture Kill and details his fantasies of torture. Kids are naturally very trusting of random weirdos, the most prolific killer in South America killed like 300 little girls that trusted him and followed him of their own will. Fun fact he just got like 20 years because these s***hole countries have the most idiotic legal systems. No mossad has captured him, weird. Priorities. US kids are like tenfold dumber than other kids in the world as we all know, absolute brainwashed gullible morons for the main part. Right now the police is watching Mr RTK & protestors are following him around. Maybe he is going to aim for some Antifa & BLM protestors they're quite credulous. Already lots of them have disappeared (some bodies have been discovered some not). A young (18 or 19 I think) gullible black girls was "trending" after they found her body. She followed some creepy 40 yo dude in a dark alley and then was surprised he raped her. And then she told every one on twitter (modern version of shouting it on rooftops) and then she died. Didn't see that coming. People then started holding candles and singing songs "ooooh we won't ever forget you". They frown and get offended anytime someone makes "insensitive comments" (pretty much any comment), will stay gullible idiots, and this will keep happening and they'll keep crying and singing songs "we will never forget lalala" and frown. These "peaceful protests" are an absolute cesspool of protestors, pedos, scammers, and so on. George Soros (that recently gifted $220 million to the BLM peaceful protestors) & friends are probably rubbing their hands as more and more madmen get released, this is sure to destroy America. I also heard Idaho was suspending child protection rules due to covid-19. What grudge do they have against kids that were just barely born? They didn't even have time to do anything yet. Just go to school and that's it. Who did they hurt exactly? What can they possibly be responsible for? 5- Bitcoin investors that think they're really smart fall for the stupidest Bitcoin doubling scam ever imagined *********************** Imagine my surprise. Hackers, with the help of a twitter worker, stole and had control for nearly an hour if I'm correct, of dozens of accounts with millions of followers. They used what I found out is an old runescape scam that used to be perpetrated on naive little children. And Bitcoin investors, the ones that are persuaded to be genius visionaries, greater investors than Warren Buffet, OF COURSE they ate it up, and in a few minutes one of the addresses already received 12 Bitcoins. These scams are very frequent and millions got scammed off of suckers, but this hack is the biggest one yet because lots of accounts with lots of followers were stolen, you had Geert Wildeers far right of NL that had his avatar changed to a racist stereotype of a black man that really made me piss myself, Apple got the account stolen, Elon Musk, plenty of the biggest ones. One of the Winklevoss twins, that already got scammed and outsmarted with facebook yet still think they are visionaries, joyfully posted on twitter, the cesspool of angry idiots, "Bitcoin is trending". Nevermind that the reason was a giant scam. I find little ways to make this even better. If he spoke about always doing his research it would have been even better ye. That's the only way how it could be even MOAR good. 6- Yellen & Bernanke blame hedge funds for not being bagholders, demands the gov prevents price go down 😂 *********************** The corrupt crooks whined that hedge funds were responsible for the world all time largest bond bubble - which according to them is of course perfectly healthy and normal - explosion. They blamed the funds for forcing the fed to run the printing press to reinflate the bubble, and they said that the government itself needed to reinflate the bubble and take preventive measures to make sure the price would never drop again. They did not use the words pyramid scheme or ponzi, weird, that's what they're doing, maybe they've never heard of those words? The greedy bankers also said the fed should mount a special investigation into March price went down and look at hedge fund roles. Never a problem when price go up. Unfair? Inefficient? Who cares. Creates a revolution that threatens the fabric of civilisation? Who cares? Who cares how many get killed, how many are sent to jail for defending their homes. As long as price go up. Why would they care? They live in their ivory tower surrounded by private security and they're also part of a protected minority if anyone comes close or threatens them verbally then overwhelming special forces are immediately sent in. I think that overleveraged funds too stupid to figure out what direction markets go were scratching little bits from the small differences between the futures market and the underlying (arbitrage). Their greed made them go with massive size, way too much for their AUM. With of course as always a complete ignorance of worse case scenarios (THAT DO HAPPEN. Quite often), binomial probabilities, etc. Markets moved alot and forced them to dump their huge positions. And then rekt. They're 1 level above morons that bought "cheap" May Oil futures before it went negative, but that's it, just 1 level. They're going to end up restricting leverage for EVERYBODY, and as usual overdo it, and then probably wonder why people diversify less. A few months ago Yellen said we should bring back 2010 Dodd–Frank act (investor protection against price go down).
by MrRenev
4
Lessons about ultimate ignorance, survivor bias, exp. growthHello, I wanted to write about these 3 subjects, I have alot on my mind but I'll try keeping it compact and clean. 1- Ultimate Ignorance * People are persuaded the stock market will always go up. Why? They expect to all become rich with absolutely no effort like magical money will just appear in their pockets. Even a woldwide index isn't completely safe, global markets have dropped and stagnated for more than 100 years in the past and stock markets are only 500 years old. Concerning individual countries there has never been one that lasted forever... So it's pretty irrational as Einstein would say to expect a different outcome this time. And money doesn't just magically grow on trees forever what are those people thinking... They are going to learn a harsh lesson. * Certain people are completely stupid and out of this world. I have no word. The type of person crying because Bernie is not the dem frontrunner. One of those said, and it seemed it wasn't a troll, that "rich" bloomberg was so rich he could give every single american citizen $1 million which would change the life of most americans. And when people tried explaining how stupid that claim was, that person defended it "bla bla bla the point is he could give 1 million to every one and he wouldn't notice". The kind of people that watch clown news network every day and believe what they say. Even in congress alot fail basic maths taught to 6 yos. And of course they think infinite money can be printed and make every one rich. And if need money for free stuff always simple solution "just tax the rich". All of their idiotic ideas are traumatising. And on top of that it has been tried and failed. I lost all hope for the human race... Might be living in noisy stressful big towns making people lose their minds. We need to end wageslavery and have an exodus back to rural areas asap, but this is an idea for another post. * 2 years ago Paul Singer (the Argentina Vulture Capitalist managing a few dozen billions in a fund) had this to say about Bitcoin in a letter sent to investors, unlike Warren Buffet he does not try to look nice and friendly not hurt anyone feelings and just says it how it is: “This is not just a bubble. It is not just a fraud. It is perhaps the outer limit, the ultimate expression, of the ability of humans to seize upon ether and hope to ride it to the stars... But is it not glorious that when the equivalent of nothing attracts priests and parishioners who run up the price, the very willingness of the mob to buy it at higher and higher prices is seen as validation of the thing, rather than an indication of the limitless ignorance of swaths of the human race?” I completely agree. And like this person, I just say it how it is no point sugar coating it, Warren does it and crypto victims are still hating the guy so what is the point? He admitted there was genius in Bitcoin, when he called it a "Brilliant scam". I completely agree. Crypto HAS to be the ultimate never seen before super scam, the biggest ponzi in history. They can't ever have been any scam this big. Social security and debt are different so I'd count them separately. Bitcoin is one of the biggest mass delusion the dumbest the peak of human ignorance. "The outer limit" yes, this must be it, how can it possibly get dumber? 2- Survivor bias How ignorant are you? Here is a little test, got this from a recent video on youtube about prediction: This is an image extracted from the damaged planes the air force has in their hangar (I think it was the RAF but it doesn't matter): Command wants to armor the plane. Where should they place the armor? (can't full armor the plane makes it heavy and costs money & a nation cannot print or tax itself into wealth) The red areas represent where the planes took bullets on average. Well what does this tell us? It tells us that the planes in the hangars have this composite. In other words, the planes that made it home. I know alot of people ("just tax the rich make everything free") that would instantly say "armor the red area" but it is so wrong. This is why natural selection favors the smartest, and why wars are won by smarter faster thinking commands (cough cough france germany ww2). The reason why their planes had very little impacts in the mid fuselage engines and cockpit is really obvious... Those ones did not make it home. So all they get back are the survivors... That didn't get hit in the priority areas. Understanding survivor bias is important. In this video it was a class lesson and about half the students gave the wrong answer. Of the other half I am willing to bet they were mostly just afraid to look stupid or sleeping. 3- Exponential Growth The graph is a classic. Some examples: - Bacteria Colonies: the stagnate when food rarefies then just die of hunger/eat each other - Virusses (Corona...) - Internet Virusses - Ponzi Schemes (you know one...) - Product Life Cycle (the radio was introduced - Lag Phase, grew till every one had one, stagnated at 90% adoption or so, and has been dying with tv the internet smartphones) - Bubbles ("back to normal" is stagnation) - And more What is great about maths is how you learn that everything is correlated and works the same. And add finance which also does that, your brain goes boom. By the way, in Asia the coronavirus so many nuts are so afraid of, is in the decline phase. In Europe and NA I think we are at stagnation phase but there has been a spike in case, probably from all the people testing for it. What a joke. Idiocy to the limit "outer limit". Peak ignorance. People are fighting for toilet paper. I don't even understand. Some numbers. Worldwide cases of CoronaHoax: 150,000. Probably a bit more with the infected people that don't even notice it LOL! H1N1 2009 (swine flu) cases: 700,000,000 to 1,500,000,000. Half a million deaths. There was like easilly 1 billion cases of H1N1. It is still good that government try to limit the spread of the virus, to protect their elders. But all these ignoramus panicking, and whining Trump didn't do enough (Obama did nothing for 1 billion infected H1N1...). Oh and by the way an analysis was done on 1 billion infected H1N1... It was a smaller deal than the common flu THAT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR. The pathetic little common cold known as Covid-19 (it is a common cold) is on the decline already :) Mass hysteria over this... so this is it... Clown world. The exponential spread of idiocy is at max now right? Ah right we keep helping them out rather than let natural selection do its job so the decline won't ever happen. "You have to be a contrarian to make money". Yup. When the herd panics "CO2" (makes so much sense) "CoronaPoop" (sad) or gets all excited "Bitcoin moon soon" (reptilian brains) you know it is time to consider thinking the opposite. Interesting how everyone that makes money consistantly, all the big time billionaire financeers, all think the same. 90% are going to have this mob mentality to varying degrees. SHEEP. Illogical irrational ignorant sheep. Understand how the reptilian herd behaves, profit from it, rince and repeat. No one ever made money being a sheep (ok there were a few but they got lucky). Always stay rational. This gets repeated so often via "do not be emotional", but those that repeat this number 1 tip do not always understand it and think it means you should avoid going completely berserk (clearly they don't trade and just repeat something they read), it means BE RATIONAL (as opposed to emotional). And this is the 1 exception, the 1 free meal. In this case there is a very simple way (well maybe not for everyone, but simple on paper) to make alot of money. By simply being rational you already beat 90% of the competition. It is magical.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
9
10 of the dumbest irrational beliefsEvery site book or video introducing what trading is says the same: The number 1 threat is being emotional. I agree, but I would be more clear and call it being irrational, or better, having a reptilian brain. "Being emotional" sounds like someone getting all hysterical, that's not how traders fail, they fail because they got caught up in the hype, get scared of violent moves and remove their orders (to then see they missed a winner but since they don't log their trades they actually never notice the pattern), get complacent, fail to see the world as it is, think the dot com bubble will never pop because of "virtuallity means there can be infinite profitability" (makes 0 sense, comptletely irrational), et cetera. In this idea, I will present some of the best irrational ideas (and a few of the funniest), that some people somehow believe in. Let's learn what NOT TO DO. Good thing I don't want to start a hedge fund or work as an analyst or anything, so I don't have to pretend I respect these people that fall for clown baits. 1- The warming is bigger than you think! According to journalists that claim 97% of scientists agree with them: Russia is warming 2.5 faster than everywhere else news.yahoo.com China is warming faster than everywhere else www.ecns.cn According to the very serious very official IPCC, Europe has been warming faster than the global average www.theguardian.com Europe: Ireland is warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.irishtimes.com Europe: Britain has been warming 50% faster as everywhere else www.telegraph.co.uk Europe: Finland is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet www.zmescience.com Europe: Sweden temperature rising more than twice as fast as the global average www.thelocal.se West Africa is warming faster (76%) than the rest of the world (West Africa is Mauritania Mali Niger and all the countries under those in the "bulge" of west africa) www.ghanabusinessnews.com South Africa is warming faster than the rest of the world www.traveller24.com The arab world (MENA) is warming faster than the rest of the world (summers to warm twice as fast) www.economist.com www.arabstates.undp.org Mediterranean is warming up faster than the rest of the planet english.elpais.com Asia vast landmass warming faster than everywhere else and end of the world (famine droughts etc) www.tasnimnews.com Canada warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.theguardian.com Arctic is warming at astonoshing rate (other articles say twice as fast) www.npr.org Mountains communities suffer as mountains warm... you guessed it, twice as fast as everywhere else psmag.com USA are warming faster than the rest of the world www.theguardian.com The antartic is warming faster than everywhere else (10 times!) www.nasa.gov www.coolantarctica.com Australia warming twice as fast as everywhere else www.ft.com Kuwait: Alarm as Gulf waters warm three times faster than average Removed article BONUS: Even Mars is warming 4 times as fast as anywhere else on earth. Must be manmade ;) www.sott.net Ok to be fair, it could be that the equator and the 2 big oceans are warming more slowly, and every where other than that is warming faster. But they are launching the alarmism on oceans too, and always saying how "equatorial regions (which are all poor) will be hit the worse" Pacific ocean warming 15 times more than before eu.usatoday.com Ocean warming accelerating faster than thought (really? faster than thought? when all the models were way overestimating the warming?) www.nytimes.com Ocean water off west coast acidifying at twice the rate of global average www.oregonlive.com There are no articles, not a single one, on a location where "warming slower than everywhere else". Since warming is to blame directly for everything, and countries where warming is bigger will be touched more, how come they always say that countries where warming is smallest (around the equator) will be impacted most and it will create waves of millions of climate migrants from central america & africa??? Logic??? It's worse in developped countries therefore consequances will be worse in developped countries, but also consequences will be worse in developping nations which will create climate refugees. Every where the impact is worse than everywhere else. All the focus is on creating alarmism out of thin air. In any set of data, some samples will be above average, other ones are below average. Simple statistics. All speculators should know this. Rating hungry media simply pick the extremes in the sample to create alarmism, and people fall for that. It is completely irrational. Unless the variance was completely huge, which it is not, a 1-sigma variation is nothing special. They did not point to anything out of the ordinary, nothing was discovered or created. I could pick literally anything and go "xyz stocks prices fall twice as fast as the entire stock market" to scare people and really dumb people are under the impression that everything is falling fast which is a whole other special kind of stupid. "warming faster than average" "acidifying faster than average" "today I pooped twice as much as usual". Basic stats there are always outliers... 2- The coronavirus is the greatest threat of our generation and we will all lose a loved one It killed what? Like 2500 people in 2 months? And spring is 1 month away. "Coronavirus cases spike in Iran, country most hit after china" ==> Wow a whooping 8 deaths. I am scared. Iran pop is around 80 millions if I recall correctly. www.cnbc.com The flu ==> Up to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year. Ebola ==> Who knows how many millions since its discovery. Heart disease cause by eating trash in huge quantities, smoking ==> hundreds of millions of deaths. No one cares, people keep smoking and eating 4 kg poop a day. This is how the Corona Virusses work since their discovery in the 60s. And this has lasted for 60 years - holding head in hand & blushing. 3- There is a global conspiracy to hide from us that the earth is flat Ok, why? And... how is EVERYONE on board with this? Also, why? What about the proof? The logic? The more proof? Flat earthers... One died yesterday in his homemade steam spaceship to prove earth was flat (I kid you not). They ask you for proof if "what you say is true" and add a little "aha!". Then you come up with proof. Then they disregard the proof "bah you made it up". Nothing can convince them. They think the world is surrounded by antartica which holds water in. Gravity doesn't exist to them. They have eyes. Sometimes telescopes. They can see other planets. They can see every visible object that is not earth is nice and round. Yet, earth is not??? They come up with the most idiotic explanations for tall buildings disappearing under the curvature as you move away from them, or how the sun circling earth can possibly work (why is half of earth dark for half the day while the other half is lit to put it simple). If there was a market for the shape of earth, they would keep betting on "flat" and getting tore apart by the trend continuously going towards "globe". 4- Internet/Crypto "infinite profitability" You might have missed this, but during the dot com bubble, BAD speculators were explaining to every one how because the internet is not physical and all tech and everything, "infinite profitability" was possible, which means the stock market would literally never stop going up. I did not make this up. There are recordings. You can check for yourself. I think we can hear this exceptional argument in the 2001 documentary "What Happened". During the dot com bubble, companies (especially IPOs) that had absolutely no business model no profit no nothing were getting so much money for nothing. They bought the most expensive furniture, that was not even used. It was ridiculous. Anyone could come up with their "start up" and a 30 seconds speach and get huge funding. Investors didn't care about what commanies were doing. "Internet stuff? Take my money!" Stanley Druckenmiller which was Soros associate or worked for him and generated the british pound idea, lost billions getting his reptilian brain fired up and thinking the dot com stocks would never stop going up. He recently invested in a new hype market, cloud companies, which is a few years old now (before crypto bubble) I worked in this hype scam, seemed ridiculous to me, and I am glad this bubble burst. They laughed at Warren Buffet for being cautious, and they got burned... We had the same happen recently with not IPOs but this time ICOs. People told me I was overly bearish 2 years ago for saying Lisk would fall to 1 dollar and even below, they thought it was going to 300 bucks on rebrand LOL! Well guess what? I was right all along, and the price bounced on almost all the levels I pointed out 2 years ago: Of course these bubbles bring all the scammers. Bitconnect promising 1% a day because of "their magical arbitrage bot". Money just appears out of thin air in people mind? These reptiles realize what 1% a day means? 3700% after just 1 year. It's more than Ponzi or Madoff ever promised... The internet & crypto bubbles, both irrational. Nothing "changes the laws of economics". There is no "infinite profitability" wealth that magically pops out of thin air. There never will be. pretty sure the laws of math & physics are never going to change. 5- Famous one: Tulip Mania Every one knows about this one I guess. Imagine paying fortunes for some bulb because "it's so fashionable". It's just a stupid flower you idiots! 6- Fashionable self harm & harm to others Did you know there was a time (and a place) when poisoning people was fashionnable? Oh how awesome! Stabbing someone was a punishable crime and offended people, but poisoning someone? Oh how cool you are! According to ancient greek texts, a habit in Ethiopia was that when the king was disabled in a part of his body, his entourage would mutilate themselves to have the same disability. I've read about dumb teenagers inserting needles in their bodies or strangling themselves because it's the trending thing. I don't even want to look into that, I'd risk losing some brain cells. 7- Cigarettes are good for you, and radioactive drinks give you vigor Lol. Well it's self explanatory I think XD This is what people used to think a century or so ago 8- The jews/witches are responsible for all the ills of society Repeating one... Funny thing is before the little ice age the church called the fear of witches a dumb superstition, they tried their best to make pagans look stupid and this was I guess one of those things? And a few centuries later when CO2 levels declined and people started getting HANGRY here is the church, burning hundreds of thousands of witches... 9- Penny stocks A news of a partnership or other shill comes out and some penny stocks go up hundreds of percent because "this might be the next amazon". It's way overvalued, by ignorant retail traders, it always falls right back to zero (baseline), and they keep falling for it. Idk man. 10- "I believe in science" Here you have 99% of science (I do not include maths) theories that end up getting disproven (or as some call it "improved"), and yet, some clowns are "die hard believers because science is true whether you agree or not". Mkay, so for the past 10000 years science kept getting it wrong over and over and evolve, but today, this very day, this is when all of it is correct and won't be proven wrong? Just come up with a new "amazinging sciencism", make it flashy and revolutionary and all, launch a few companies, buy shares so price go up, and enjoy your billions as suckers pile in...
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
9
Timely market cycle update: The end of an ERA & start of a new.10 days ago was published a report on how much money was lost by crypto illegal crime (whales baiting suckers to buy their bags does not count). Last year’s losses were up nearly 160% from 2018’s total of $1.74 billion. Hacks and thefts fell by 66%. Exit scams, fraudulent exchanges scaming suckers, and the such, went up fivefold. As I predicted in my wash trading idea. 4 days ago this hilarous FCoin CEO announcement "wupsie we lost tens possibly hundreds of millions it's gone poof we can't get them back there seems to have been a bug that we didn't notice even as we lost millions but don't worry guys I plan to quit crypto start a whole new business and make hundreds of millions and I'll be able to pay you back" as he was packing his bags to leave the country I presume. The current sucker rally can't be far from the top. I'd like to open a quick parenthesis and compare the most expensive and least efficient database ever created, BTC, to another interesting "investment" of which the promoter/owner Doctor Ruja Ignatova misteriously vanished. OneCoin investors to this day believe this was a wise investment and Ruja Ignatova had to hide from the evil "fiat world men" that are terrified of the crypto revolution. The "mighty halving" is less than 3 months away, and the current sucker rally could continue up to around 12000 until then as crypto investors turned traders hope they will be able to trade their losses back with no knowledge no experience no common sense, and as new investors that got sucked in around the top pray the price makes it all the way back to 13000 so they can breakeven (probably won't happen and they will inevitably "average down" and try to break even on the next sucker rally, never ending cycle). May could be the date at which the price tops and bagholders feel the burn again. I am eagerly waiting the halving, short for the price halving, when miners will not be profitable anymore and sell all their stock and quit. This is what I am expecting: I also expect crypto investors looking for even bigger suckers to keep defending pedophiles as long as they use their ponzi coins, and develop strong support for dictators and criminal countries such as Iran & North Korea as long as they buy their bags to escape economic sanctions. The biggest of the losses of last year come from an alleged Ponzi scheme involving crypto wallet and exchange PlusToken. 3 billions at once! But there is still alot more milk to drain from this cash cow for criminals and they are sure to keep scamming suck-er I mean investors till the last drop. When BTC gets to 1000 maybe this is the point where most criminals are out and grabbed almost all that they could? In 2013 smart people cashed out of BTC at $1000. Less smart people bought and got lucky enough to dump at 10k+ on dumb money suckers. For the past 2 years+ the suckers have been hoping that even thought the entire planet has heard of BTC by now, the price would go up to 250k for no reason and they would be able to sell to even bigger suckers. The circle will be complete when the suckers that bought at 5000-20000 "averaging down" will finally sell their bags for $1000. As you can see on the chart, Bitcoin in every bull market has had parabolic moves up. Since December 2017 there has been no parabolic move up, but there have been 2 down :) The era of parabolic uptrends is over. There used to be disbelief and more and more people got convinced to buy. A new ERA started: bulls all are convinced and buy in a linear way, but downtrends start in disbelief and accelerate down as more and more investors get convinced to sell. Long live the ERA of parabolic downtrends! Bitcoin will die, but it will be remembered as the hero of decentralization: It decentralized losses and centralized profit in the hands of a few. I hope Bitcoin will stay around for many more years, and we will keep seing desperate suckers keep trying to improve their failed project to bait new, greater fools, into buying their bags before they go to zero as they well know will happen but have always been hoping they'll be able to cash out before this happens. We will also remember Bitcoin as having allowed all sorts of companies to find investors. Companies that do not want to follow regulations do not want authorities to track them down need a decentralized platform with no one responsible, in other words, ponzi schemes and criminal circles. I think Bitcoin will rally from 1000-2000 level, but never see another ath. It may go to zero, but it could also survive. Bitcoin might survive with its original use case: buying & selling child porn on the dark web. Bitcoin should probably have many bounces on the way down of course, as the army of scam artists and prophets posing as "genius visionaries" motivate the baghodling fools of the world looking for hope. I eagerly await the price halving. And I look forward to the reasons for going up the army of BTC white knights will find, as well as their excuses when the price drops another 50%. What about you?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MrRenev
52
Short sell the disgusting climate hoax"It's very hard for people to reject what they have been taught their entire life since they were children even when presented with the evidence". WEAK. Literally took me 1 second after seing the data to change my mind about the lies I was spoon fed my entire life since I was 5. Donald Trump administration finally went against the dogma. Retiring scientists (their careers cannot be ruined anymore) are standing up to the establishment. The truth is out and it will spread. We live in the internet age. They can try censoring it, but you cannot censor the whole internet. The truth will spread. And all the GARBAGE, wasting, nature killing (ironic) companies built on the lie will collapse. If you do not want an elite to control the world, push europe & na in misery, keep africa poor and even exterminate them, then you are a racist and a holocaust denier - er I mean "climate" denier. Climate change logic at its finest. They are actually dumber than middle ages witch burning peasants. And history does not exactly paint a very flattering image of those. Facts don't matter, "approved" facts is what matters to them. They disgust me so much. And why are they so eager for news not to cover their buddy Epstein? It might steal valuable time from the climate change "only 10 years left" urgency? It's all for the good cause right? Wait until we get the short interest on Tesla. Already shorting a company overrun by brainwashed cultists & Robinhood ignorant gamblers. Let's not also join a crowded short. Don't go against the herd, as dumb as they might be. In the past century there have been hundreds of stock market and real estate bubbles, stock bubbles happened in particular in "new tech" stocks that mainstream media talks about alot. In the past century how many bubbles have there been in corporate bonds? Take a guess. Zero. Not one. Tells you everything you have to know. If Bitcoin taught us something it's that retail is VERY SLOW to understand things and react, especially when it goes against what they want to hear. They can even ignore it. So I expect a downtrend to be slow. If institutions are the main player in something they are so fast that you can't even get filled so it's not good either :( Pros to short: Tesla is not profitable, it's a trash company based on hype and Elon being a manipulative celebrity. Climate change threat is an obvious lie. Literally takes 15 minutes to debunk 97% of their claims. Near ath resistance & 1.236 extension of a sucker rally. Cons to short: The stock market in general could be entering its last phase, the parabolic run up. Noobish morons cause bubbles, and will randomly buy anything. Overcrowded short (we will know this soon). Short at around 375 with a SL slightly above ath, or sell puts. Or be long DJI/SPX while short TSLA.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by MrRenev
36
Good news! I found the Nokia chartSome people following me might have read about the Nokia example. Well it was here all along. The name is disgusting, it was 1 of the few I didn't try in the long list of results. No wonder I wouldn't find the right chart. Posting this idea as BTC because I want more than 3 views ;) Plus it is the one currently in an echo bubble. First let me repost the railway bubble chart: There was 3 echo bubbles, with the last 1 going higher even. I do not think this is very likely with Bitcoin, facts point to going the sugar & Nokia route. Typical echo bubble death... Let's look at the log charts: Sugar extended down 1.236. Nokia 2. An extension of 1.236 on BTC would bring the price to ~ 1000, 1.618 would be around 600 bucks. My favorite part, the linear charts years later: MoviePass, oh what an awesome scam: A couple varying examples:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
30
Surprise! How to use fib correctly. Log fib!In a previous idea I said if it got 50 likes I would post a surprise. I think they don't want you to know... Some people might already know this but I know for a fact the vast majority does not. I hope this does not stop working now that I share it. I have plenty of other strats and if markets evolve and 1 strat stops working I know I'll be the first to evolve so I do not even mind. Now how to draw the log fib? You simply use "Fib channel" and voila. I think it is supposed to be a fib that gets drawn diagonally, but unlike the regular fib it scales with log. So it can be diverted from its main purpose and used this way. Some examples: It looks like the stock market retraces have been more shallow since investors have been telling people to buy & hold. Didn't stop billionaires from being made. On something that went up 10 years, +600%, like gold I am not sure which one is best. On really big moves it has to be the log one obviously. You can only see the top 10% on the linear chart and most of it is too smal because of the exponential rise. Amazon is a good example. I am not saying this works 100% of the time & don't go all in. There are not a whole lot of really large moves so not a huge sample size to work with. Since crypto has no intrisic value and most importantly is highly manipulated I expect this to keep working perfectly until the crypto cow is entirely milked and there is nothing left in. Crypto is still at a 150 billion market cap, at under 25 billion they might think it's not worth their time anymore. Since miners might bail out (I heard they were doing it little by little) and wash trading / ponzi exchanges are going to exit scam, it could only work once more and then suddenly end. Crypto was nice and all when it was only made up of noobs, but in 2017 the sophisticated crowd joined and they are interested in cold hard cash, not imaginary money they won't ever be able to cash out of and transform into real concrete money (since it has negative sum rate & no value). I wish I knew about it earlier and had money to spare. But we almost all have to deal with getting so close to making huge returns and just miss it by a hair. Those that accepted it have been able to move forward, and we can grow (as fast as our mightly lords the regulators that control our lives will allow). Those that are still in denial and cannot accept they missed their chance to buy early / cash out at the top, are stuck and will get milked to the last drop (until crypto is small enough the whales ignore it & they'll keep coming any time it grows). As a conclusion; when you look at really big timeframes / or moves of maybe 1000% in a short time, use the log fib ==> This is how you do it on tradingview. Until next bubble ;)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2
Bitcoin vs VisaFunny thing about both of them is that they topped around 340B Dollars in market cap. Bitcoin did a 20x in 1 year, while visa did a 15x in ~9years. To me they both went parabolic and then had a major bull trap. A massive bull trap pushing a lot higher making people believe it will go even higher. Could this be just a continuation of the rally? It very well could, but to me the global financial conditions don't make me feel very comfortable taking a long trade right now. As this market is heavily dependent on Central Banks it could continue a lot higher, but it is quite obvious that going long here is like going long Bitcoin near 15000$, so be careful.
NYSE:V
by BitcoinMacro
Why I am accumulating Ostrich feathers at these cheap prices"Ostrich feathers took off in a big way in the 1880s. ‘A well-dressed woman nowadays is as fluffy as a downy bird fresh from the nest’; ‘If you would be fashionable this winter, you will be beplumed.’ Soaring international demand encouraged South African farmers to rear more birds and by 1913 the ostrich population of Little Karoo (the region at the heart of feather mania) grew from practically nil to 776,000. South African farmers and feather merchants became extremely wealthy on the back of the trade and started building ostentatious feather mansions which boasted ‘panelled walls, tiled bathrooms, hand-painted friezes; the finest mahogany, walnut, and oak furniture... gilt concave mirrors, silver and Sheffield plate, the best Irish linen.’ At the market’s height in 1913, farmers were expanding, and brokers and investors were stockpiling large quantities of feathers in anticipation of even higher prices. Many in the trade were utterly convinced that the profits would keep rolling in, for feathers, like diamonds, were an ‘investment for life’, and in 1911 the world’s only ostrich professor confidently stated that ostrich farming would be a permanent feature of South African farming. Three years later, however, the feather market began a precipitous and permanent decline. By late 1914, changing fashions, growing concerns over animal cruelty and conservation and the advent of the motor car, which rendered elaborate headgear impractical, all spelt the end for feather mania. The crash resulted in great hardship for South Africa’s feather farmers and merchants. Scores of farmers committed suicide (weak hands) rather than face life without their farms. Merchants’ feather mansions were auctioned off for the price of their windows and doors – one merchant even forced his wife to sell her oven door to pay off his debts. Ostrich carcasses littered the South African landscape because farmers could not afford the birds’ feed." Copied from the internet. People say accumulating Ostrich feather is stupid and their fundamental value is not as high as I would think, but they do not understand the new world, it is not the way it used to be anymore. Ford astonished the world in 1914 by offering a $5 per day wage ($130 today), which more than doubled the rate of most of his workers. The world is changing and new demands are arising. With mass production this opens so many possibilities. So many innovations are being made. The bubble popped a hundred years ago, so a new bull market is imminent. The longer this bear market lasts, the closer we get to the bull market. 1 Feather = 1 Feather come at me. On the really long term Ostrich feathers are in a bullish trend. What do you mean inflation? They might be slightly below their 1913 price, but I am still up 5000% compared to 1250. People are calling me stupid for accumulating Ostrich Feathers they laugh and throw stones at me but they simply do not understand the powerful new world economy. Besides, back in 1905 when the price of Feather dropped they called hoarding it incredibly stupid, but those that did saw massive returns in 1913 so where is your argument now? I am just waiting for Feather to pop above the price trendline and then we are really going to get going. Return to the mean BTW: Of course the countless examples that just die disappear and are not on trading view. Commodities do not just disappear, so I can use that as example. Good luck finding a feather chart. Cryptoers are going to look very smart in 2115.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MrRenev
2