BUD
BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BUD after the Dylan Mulvaney scandal:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Anheuser-Busch ($BUD) Reports Better-Than-Expected Sales In Q1Anheuser-Busch InBev (NYSE:BUD) reported Q1 CY2024 results that exceeded analysts' expectations, with revenue up 2.3% year on year to $14.55 billion. The company made a GAAP profit of $0.54 per share, down from its $0.81 per share in the same quarter last year. Brand strength, marketing strategies, and shifts in consumer preferences influence the company's performance. Companies that invest in innovation to meet consumers where they are can reap huge demand benefits, while those who ignore trends can see stagnant volumes.
Anheuser-Busch ( NYSE:BUD ) is one of the most widely recognized consumer staples companies in the world, giving it extremely high negotiating leverage with distributors. Its annualized revenue growth rate of 7.4% over the last three years was decent despite selling a similar number of units each year. This quarter, Anheuser-Busch ( NYSE:BUD ) reported decent year-on-year revenue growth of 2.3%, and its $14.55 billion in revenue topped Wall Street's estimates by 1.3%.
Generative AI is expected to have a huge impact on how large corporations do business. While Nvidia and AMD are trading close to all-time highs, we prefer a lesser-known but still profitable semiconductor stock benefitting from the rise of AI.
Volume growth can be broken down into changes in price and volume (the number of units sold). Volume is the lifeblood of a successful staples business as there’s a ceiling to what consumers will pay for everyday goods; they can always trade down to non-branded products if the branded versions are too expensive. To analyze whether Anheuser-Busch ( NYSE:BUD ) generated its growth from changes in price or volume, we can compare its volume growth to its organic revenue growth, which excludes non-fundamental impacts on company financials like mergers and currency fluctuations.
In Anheuser-Busch's Q1 2024, year-on-year sales volumes were flat, which was more or less in line with the same quarter last year. Key takeaways from Anheuser-Busch's Q1 Results include beating analysts' adjusted EBITDA and EPS expectations this quarter, and its revenue outperforming Wall Street's estimates. The stock is up 4.7% after reporting and currently trades at $63.42 per share.
TAP ( Coors Molson Miller ) Ready for Bullish Continuation?On the daily chart, TAP was on a good trend up heading into earnings which were favorable.
It is consolidated since just after earnings in a " high tight bull flag pattern" Volume has been
healthy with many buyers and seller trading shares in a tight range channel. The stochastic
RSI is now at about 20% indicating TAP is in the oversold / undervalued area. The optimized
artificial intelligence moving average indicator shows parallel rises in both the short and long
MAs ( neither divergence nor convergence just consistent ). This is a minor healthy pullback
and a good entry point.
Fundamentally, the summer beer- drinking season will soon arrive. TAP may be benefitting
from the BUD backlash over the Bud Lite endorsement controversy.
My call options have been appreciated 50% in the past 2 1/2 weeks ( 4% per trading day ).
I will roll them into the call options expiring 9/15/23. I consider TAP to be a steady
consistent gainer and likely more or less recession-proof.
BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BUD`s Double Top here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-6-21,
for a premium of approximately $2.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Craft Beer Seltzer Alcohol Barometer: Sam Adam's Boston Beer Co.Alcohol consumption
When averaged over two years, 2021-2022, 63% of U.S. adults aged 18 and older consumed alcohol. Gallup, Inc. indicates that "the drinking rate ticks up to 65% when narrowed to adults of legal drinking age" of 21. When segmented based on demographic characteristics:
Eighty percent of adults, 18 and older, living in households with annual incomes of $100,000 or more consumed alcohol in 2021/2022.
Only 49% of those living in a household with an annual income of less than $40,000 consumed the beverages.
Likewise, the higher the level of education, the greater the percentage of adults in the cohort who had consumed an alcoholic beverage, while the incidence of consumption decreased as age increased.
A nearly equal percentage of men and women consumed alcohol, 66 and 61%, respectively, when averaged over the two years.
Pertaining to race and ethnicity, 68% of non-Hispanic white adults, 59% of Hispanic adults, and 50% of non-Hispanic black adults consumed alcohol.
Another source, The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank Wine Report, states data from the Wine Market Council:
28% of consumers were "abstainer ," which "has increased 4 percentage points since the 2017 survey."
18% were "core wine drinker " who "drink wine at least once a week," which decreased from 21% in 2017.
15% were "marginal" who "prefer wine…and consume wine at least every two to three months… wine consumers who drink wine one to three times a month," which decreased from 19% in 2017.
The remaining consume "alcohol, not wine" (29%) or are "infrequent alcohol" consumers (10%).
Alcoholic beverage preferences and purchases
When asked to indicate their beverage category of choice, 30% of consumers preferred liquor, 31% wine, and 35% beer. Another source, IRI, reports that 16% of alcoholic beverage consumers drink beer exclusively, 13% drink only wine, and 11% only spirits. Consumption of more than one category is as follows:
Beer and wine, 13%,
Beer and spirits, 12%,
Wine and spirits, 9%, and
All three types, 27%.
When segmented based on consumption frequency, for consumers between ages 21 and 39 years, Wine Opinions found the following:
Half (51%) of those who drank beer consumed the beverage "weekly or more often," 24% consumed the beverage 2-3 times a month," 8% "about once a month," and the remaining 17% consumed beer "less often or never."
For wine and spirits, the percentage of consumers who drank the beverages at each reported frequency was similar: 30% of those who drank the beverages consumed them "weekly or more often," a third consumed the beverages "2-3 times a month," 16% "about once a month," and 21% of wine drinkers and 20% of those who drank spirits consumed them "less often or never."
Those who consumed beer on a weekly, or more frequent, basis were more likely to be males, weekly wine consumers were more likely to be female, and "consumption of spirits is even by gender."
Can BUD recover? LONGBUD trended down in the social media fiasco until June 1st and then reversed.
Based on long term VWAP lines ( mean and standard deviations) anchored to April 1st
on the one hour chart, BUD is crossing over VWAP lines from below and is now
approaching the mean VWAP at 59.25. It could make a bullish move and cross the
mean VWAP or it could bounce down if short sellers dominate buyers and longs closing
their positions. The dual time frame RSI shows both low time frame and high time frame
strength over 50. The three in one indicator shows money flow and momentum to also
be bullish. My call options expiring 12/15/23 striking $55 are up 23% since July 1st. This
is reasonable unrealized profit for the risk taken. I see BUD with more upside potential
than downside risk. I will take more call option contracts for $65.00 at a premium of
$195.00. they have appreciated 15% in the past 24 hours. This is a conservative low beta
low risk options trade. Buy low, sell high !
BUD - BEARISH CONTUNUATIONAnheuser - Busch Inbev started reverse capitalization of their last marketing adventure, and the controversial directions taken by the head of marketing caused a single red day to erase nearly $4 billion market cap. Unfortunately for BUD that was not just a single-day event, the decline is still going down on a steep angle. The vacation season in the US already kicked off to rock a possibly warmer-than-usual summer and many drinking venues are done choosing the seasonal promotions and POS arrangements. This is all happening at the wrong time, during the wrong time for BUD. What they say about "the bottom of every bottle" is very valid for Bud Light and Budweiser beers.
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Target TGT Is it a buy or sell?TGT is presently selling off as a consequence of a social media retail boycott of sorts which
developed after the Bud Lite episode. In the meantime, it had decent earnings despite the
impending or present recession. The volume profiles show previously the highest volume of the
trading range was $ 155 but now it has fallen to $139. So should a trader consider the earnings
and buy this discount or instead pay attention to sentiment and short TGT?
BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev Options Ahead of EarningsIn April, Anheuser-Busch InBev ran a social media campaign for Bud Light beer that featured the transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney . The company is currently facing the consequences of this promotion, and it is likely that their beer sales will significantly decline in the current quarter.
Now analyzing the options chain of BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 50usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $1.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
BUD - Hail the King of BeerHere on a daily chart, I have plotted the ratio of the dynamic share price of BUD compared
with TAP. The thesis is that TAP ( Coors / Molson) may have had a share price rise while
BUD dropped its own as a reaction to its adverse ad campaign which resulted in a social media
disaster. BUD is global with only 25% of its market in North America while TAP is more like
North America predominantly. The ad campaign and social media backlash is only North
America over time is impact will be nil.
The thesis is that BUD will recover and that astute contrarian investors and traders can profit
from the dynamic which in the greater and longer picture has been a dip for BUD representing
a buying opportunity. As can be seen on the chart, the DUD/TAP ratio is at the bottom and
outside of the boundary of the lower Bollinger Bands and now reentering the bands.
The ratio is also in the demand/support zone where it was last October. The action
of the ratio was a double top "M" pattern which has now played out . Finally, the AI predictive
algo of Luxalgo predicts a ratio rise between now and the end of the month as the ratio
heads to the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Overall, the analysis is that either BUD will rise
or TAP will drop or some combination. Overall, I conclude that BUD could easily rise from
this dip over the next ten calendar days. I will take a position in call options with 30- 45 DTE.
BUD Uptrending despite the Bud Lite controversyBUD is a staple stock catering to beerdrinkers both in North America and Europe.
The controversy about a spokesperson for an ad campaign for Bud Lite has heightened awareness.
Bud Lite is only one product of the parent company.
Fundamentals arise, BUD is uptrending since Friday the 13th with hull moving averages converged.
In confirmation, the RSI bottomed at 25% and is now rising while the volume indicator shows
increased volume as compared with that of March.
Overall, I see BUD as a good investment in a recessionary environment because if anything
history shows alcohol consumption increases in a recession. If production costs can be
contained despite inflation and demand goes higher so will those earnings and the market cap
This BUD has been tainted - the case for short selling BUDI wanted to present to everyone the reasons why we like short selling BUD including the use of long put options
The first and primary reason is because of the risk/reward ratio. The risk-to-reward is 1 to 15, even though there is never a risk free trade, BUD went into such an overowned or extended price placement that it would be difficult to sustain such momentum
In this case we have 1000 shares short to (1) allow for 10 call options in case the trade does not go our way - the no loss rules applies to all trades
Here is the reasonsing for publishing this idea
PRESS THE PLAY BUTTON. The feedback about the efficacy of this trade matters.
(1) to allow for the play button to validate our idea, in time winning trades should be seen
-A heavy short sale like this can be covered in several different locations, that is the targets that we laid out on the chart 61, 58, and 52 or 51
-The stock recently traded in an overbought territory from early 2022; namely at a time when the market was peaking for January/February of 2022
-there have been many upside gaps along the way up they tend to fill
-at the moment price is very high above its moving average and stocks do show a tendenncy of reverting back to the mean
-the longer term equilibrium is near 50 and the news flow will not be very positive to its customers about its insane marketing campaign, the company will have to do a lot to repair its reputation after recent events
I placed an overall target somewhat close to price because drink stocks tend to do well even in light of blunders like recent times. There is always room for improvement, and we are enthusiastic about showing the results as they come in.
BUD Inbev SA Bearish. Can we get a single bull today? BUD Immediate targets 58, 52, 47. Invalidation at 95.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
BUD - DailyBUD
ENTRY = 65.50 - 66
1st Target = 68
2nd Target = 72
3rd target = 77
HODL Target = 81+
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This content is for informational, educational and entertainment purposes only. This is not in any way, shape or form financial or trading advice.
Good luck, happy trading and stay chill,
2degreez
$BUD.AX setting up for a push higher - $BUD #ASX$BUD.AX setting up for a push higher - $BUD #ASX
Buddy Technologies Ltd (BUD, formerly Buddy Platform Limited) is involved in the provision of solutions for customers of any size to make their spaces smarter and their occupants efficient, environmentally aware and informed. Buddy has two core businesses, its commercial business and consumer business. The commercial business empowers customers to leverage digital technologies to use in premises and the consumer business trades under LIFX brand, which provides smart lighting solutions.
FV = 6.7c