Buffet
Buffet Indicator and Gold at the all-time highs... I just don't get it, we currently have:
Gold at the all-time high
Buffet indicator is at the all-time high (because of a huge GDP drop in Q2 )
But we're only 3% below the all-time high on S&P and VIX is at the lowest levels since Feb.
Something is wrong here, I think we should definitely see another correction. V-shape recovery is too easy for these kinds of conditions.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as good as in historical backtesting.
This post and/or the script don’t provide any financial advice.
BAC compared to SPX and NDX: Dot com top and bottomBerkshire Hathaway bought 33.9 million shares of the banking giant between Monday and Wednesday. That increased Berkshire's stake in Bank of America by $813.3 million to more than $24 billion. BRK holds 11.5% of BAC now.
BAC chart compared to S&P500.
Observe the top of both the NASDAQ and S&P
BAC started bottoming when the 2 indices started falling.
2008 was a banking crisis which directly impacted BAC and it fell relatively harder than the indices. In 2020, Banks are well capitalised and backed by the FED, so chances of a banking crisis are slim.
Add to that, NASDAQ is clearly overcooked at the moment(Check the historical chart. Top of the major trendline. That said, it Could also break up)
$D Buffet Falling Off ShortNYSE:D with $XLE looking like a rocket ship to downside. I was not expecting this horrible of a move on the Berkshire news. But there is one thing for certain (possibly two):
1. 2020 is off to a bumpy start w/ selling the airlines before fed intervention.
2. Market seems to do opposite of what buffet does. POTUS/Fed making a statement? (Opinion) 🤨😂
Have a good day everybody and good luck! Will try to post ideas more often.
OXY bullish setup ahead!Mad volume quantity the last six weeks for this one. Reaching it´s bottom at $9, these company has gotten the attention of a lot of investors. At long term any buy below $20 is a steal for this stock.
Yesterday, when the stock went above $12.60, the 5 min bearish trend got broken and closing around $13.60 the bullish setup has a high probability of continue.
I identified the upcoming resistance points at 13.66, 14.70, 15.86, 16.86 and 18.00.
A pullback may be expected for the next week so we have to be cautious if it breaks down 12.30 which is the current bottom of the uptrend channel. Buffet bought shares at a price average of 11.57 so this would be the "Buffet Support", if the price breaks the support we might be seeing 10.50-9.00 range again
Trade Idea:
- Long position at 13.75
- SL: 12.20 (Uptredn Channel break confirmation)
- TP: 18.50 - 19.00
If you swing trade you might want to close and open positions around the resistance/supports.
GS Goldman Sachs: $245 artificially undervalued towards $1,000new markets new customers when the rich becomes richer and the rise of middle class require more banking needs
Goldman shall dominate this space in the next decade.
That liquidity from the FED and make America great again shall benefit strong hands
Price action wise it's a Parabolic to fresh highs
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LOADED for the long run
warren may just mark this up to $300 to make a statement
REMINDER: this listed most issues and as underwriter packager
it knows how to surprise the PUBLIC
PHILIPS: $66 | a silent value provider in the OiL SPACE4 years is a decent head start to position and bet on AMERICA as the defcto OPEC
.. ARMCO shares tanked $500bn from $1Tr iPO | $35 <---37
Saudi should likely use the proceeds to acquire Arms from defense contractors
which Spiked 12% lockheed grumman etc..
KHC: Oscar Meyer LoserKHC is having a rough week. The news broke on Friday that they had to write down $15b in acquisitions from brands including Oscar Meyer. With a market cap of $58, any investor should be alarmed when a company writes down a quarter of their valuation! The largest holders of KHC are Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital, so anyone that followed Buffet into an earlier long play is likely kicking themselves.
This morning opened with a small upward price movement that appears to be the short squeeze from anyone holding short overnight through the weekend. The price is still dropping and will likely continue as investors who had their stop limits gapped over will be adjusting their orders top get out soon. Expect a dead cat to bounce a few times, but be certain that this is going down and wise investors will not try to catch a falling knife until the downward price action settles into a bottom and an upward trend shakes loose from the volatile swing trading to come.
Technicals are supporting this. MACD and ADX/DI flipping from bullish to strongly bearish instantly. RSI went from 58 to 15 in one trading session, and volume is spiking along with short interest. There may be a buying opportunity at the end of this once the price bottoms out, but don't try to catch this falling knife unless you want to get cut.
SPX Looking WeakSo upon looking at several factors I believe the price of stocks are fully priced atm, and that 2900 was the top for the SPX, I believe the bottom will be around 1580 or 1800 and will take about a year for us to reach the bottom, so by the year 2020 we will see bullish momentum again and that is when I will be looking to enter stocks again. Right now in my opinion the best asset to hold is bitcoin and gold,
Reason for 2900 being the top,
1. End of 5 wave count based on elliot wave analysis
2. Stocks are overpriced based on Marketcap over GDP
3. Time analysis, we have been in a bull market for 10 years
4. Stocks look similar to the late 1930's
The Great Long Play, Buffet Call & Master of StabilityI always wondered why anyone would invest in Moodys. Well, looking at its trend lines, its consistent ranges, stability and growth with the prevailing market sentiment, it seems like an almost no-brainer as to why you'd start and hold a position in it. While it's hard to want or even give a PT for the stock, it has weathered this year well and should return to $170 levels without problem. In a year where people want to avoid stability and find good hiding places, MCO might just be that. I'd personally ride this one out to $175-180 before taking gains and watching for a new range, ala 2016, to trade within depending on how this year unfolds into 2019.
US Airlines breaking higher - Tweet asking if it's BuffetA short Tweet asked if Warren Buffet is buying the Airlines.
Regardless, it seems to gathering upside momentum.
A break above the USD277~ range highs is needed to shake out the shorts.
BRK.B Berkshire as market barometer.BRK.B has followed the market higher since Feb 11th, I am setting alerts early. We will see if the market correction since the beginning of 2016 was only a dip to be bought, or an early warning sign of a bearish trend unfolding in the months to come. Similar health checks can be done with SPY:IWM, COPX, FDX, TLT, HYG, FXY, UVXY.......