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Time to think out of the box 💡INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equities failed to sustain May 23 uptick, with bears firmly in control of the market sending Nasdaq in the low 11k bracket U.S. retailer Best Buy (BBY) missed EPS forecasts, but downplayed recession fears S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a measure of the services and manufacturing industries, fell to 51.8 in May, its lowest level since February 2021; meanwhile, new home sales in the U.S. fell 26.9% on a yearly basis At Davos, Davos, George Soros remarked that “Indeed, the Russian invasion may turn out to be the beginning of World War III, and our civilization may not survive it“ After taking a leading role in Netflix (NFLX) one-day 30% slump, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted "Inflation is out of control (...) Markets are imploding because investors are not confident that the (Fed) will stop inflation. If the Fed doesn’t do its job, the market will do the Fed’s job" PROFZERO'S TAKE Tensions in Ukraine remain high after Russia's capture of the port-city of Mariupol. As EU's resolve is being tested by the concerns of some member States (Hungary in particular) on energy security, analysts see the conflict in Donbas dragging in a protracted war of attrition. ProfZero hasn't failed to notice the regained momentum of RUB in the wake of the growing fringe of European energy companies bowing to Moscow's request of supplies being paid in its own currency - yet the catch 22 is becoming thornier by the hour now that soft commodities vehemently entered the picture, escalating the crisis to a global level Russia may in fact be nearing default, as the U.S. Treasury Department said it would end as of May 25 a waiver that allowed Russia’s central bank to process payments to bondholders in USD through U.S. and international banks, on a case-by-case basis. The first tranche of interest on debt is scheduled for May 27, when EUR 100mln are due on two bonds. ProfZero has long been reporting the eventual default of Russia as a further aggravating catalyst to the overall macro scenario - now that the moment of truth nears, ripples from the eventual default also must be accounted for, starting from the consequences to soft commodities Buffett binging on U.S. equities while Soros calling the possible end of our civilization. Coincidence? As much as Bill Ackman, ProfZero only believes in the inescapable, cold efficiency of the market. Greed has all it takes to eat inflation's lunch ProfZero is starting to feel uneasy about the prolonged range-bound trading pattern drawn by BTC. Whilst impressed by the resilience of the entire blockchain space to the broader turmoil, and even more so by the rebound after LUNA's demise, ProfZero argues the current trading structure conjures fears of sudden, major drops should bears launch a short attack on the segment (much akin to the meltdown on April 29)
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Compounding (Course #2)The power of compounding is one of Warren Buffett’s success factors. Compounding is why you can make a lot of money over time. You MUST understand the power of it, and use it. That’s it. Compounding is basically reinvesting what you earned into earning more. Why is this so powerful? Because each time you earn a percentage, that earning is in fact percentage of the initial + a percentage of the previous gains. Then, as you go on, the sum of all the small gains is growing exponentially, making you earn more and more! Take a look below: Day 1, I trade $1,000 and earn 2%. This is $20. My total account balance is $1,000 + $20 = $1,020. Day 2, I trade $1,020 and earn 2%. This is $20.40. My total account balance is $1,020 + $20.40 = $1,040.04. Day 3 … again, 2% Day 4, … …. Day 30, my account balance is now $1,775.84. I earn 2%. This is $35.52. My final account balance is now $1,811.36. This is a $811.36 gain over $1,000. Or, it is a 81% gain. See the first picture - Not impressed? Check the second picture, doing it for 6 month. Compare this to the third one, not compounding your gains. You can see if you were not compounding your gains in the first month, you would make $600 (60%) instead of $800+ (80+%). Conclusion: Compounding should be a no brainer. You won’t get rich by trading high leverage a few times and make big bucks. Yet, you can get very rich by compounding your gains, steadily, day-in and day-out.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Maddrix_club
Warren Buffett performance from 14 to 83Boomers love to say "Warren Buffett made most of his money when he was old". Sorry but no, not really. They are mostly coping. They had 60+ years to do something with their lives, bit late to wake up all of a sudden if you ask me. Was Warren Buffet lucky? Considering the era he lived in he was UNLUCKY. His best years were during the worst market period. The market was strongest when he was a kid and an old man. Teens and twenties raging bull, thirties market slowing down, forties flat market, fifties to nineties mostly up up up. Think performance matter? Think the market is efficient? So the oracle of Omaha has always outperformed the market until his late 60s, and "on paper" his best was in his 30s, but in his 40s the market was flat and he still managed to produce very large returns. According to academic research on employees and scientists they peak in their late 30s, and chess sites also say the best players reached their peak ratings between 34 and 43. Coincidences? If you look at it relative of market returns, dividends reinvested, those are his performances: So even by looking at it this way, that seems more fair, his peak was still he 30s. This period where he "only" made 23% a year was the period that marked all these mindless boomers that have been saying for decades "put your money in the bank". Please do not give me advice you noobs. How are these boomers for real? In that skull of theirs, is it empty? Bank deposits used to return something stupid like 15% and now it's 1% or less, so why are they advising this? It blows my mind, they're actual parrots repeating something without knowing why or what it means. Today meta is: - There are zero no risk investments and on the flip side borrowing is free - Stonks only go up (until they won't anymore), for years, with central banks that have unlimited "money" supporting the equity markets - Forex is much harder (too difficult) for amateurs, and does not trend for long - Day trading is incredibly stupid, it was a terrible way to get very poor returns 3 decades ago and negative returns today - Bank deposits, day trading, mindless price action trend following: All haven't "worked" for over 30 years, amateurs still haven't figured it out Another great tip boomers and noobs give: "go sit in class and wait for time to pass that's rly important for ur future", "you don't have to have kids early you have time". Absolutely idiotic. Cool so by 35 you might know what you want to do, and it's already too late. I've told people over the years "sorry but young people don't do great and even if they do they always end up blowing up", this should not be translated as "Get started when you start having grey hair". You start earlier you'll gain more experience. If people "natural" peak is at say 37 and they start at 35, you really think they will reach their peak in 2 years? Of course not. Especially with investing. Investors might learn fast by being complete one tricks but even that would take a few years to really get decent. You can't really be a complete OTP with everything correlated, and you'd still have to learn more than just 1 stock to make money unless you're really lucky or something. The modern western zombie can't help but be wrong, they're imagining the "dynamic" 20 year olds and the "experienced" 60 year olds. No? Why are zombies like this? Are they actually trying to be wrong? They enjoy saying false things to look open minded? Or just dumb? "Dynamic" = excited. If you are excited in your investing you are doing it wrong. I am excited when my investment has been going up in a straight line for a year but not each time I enter a limit order. Even if you started investing at 5, at 20 your brain isn't even fully formed anyway. Garry Kasparov and Magnus Carlsen did become chess world champions at 22 - MC learned to play at literally 5 and GK at 7 (or before) and he started going to a chess school at 10. And still they were far from their peaks. Now who starts investing at 5 years old? Plus honestly, it's much more complex and you take your decisions over days, weeks, months, not a few minutes (I think the average chess game is 40 moves for a total of 1-3 hours). Also in chess you do not get drowned in a sea BS info and peer pressure, and sorting through all this crap takes a lot of rational thinking, something that appears later on. Now concerning this "experienced" 60 yos. These guys really think Warren Buffett was a mindless fool at 40? He'd been investing for 30 years boys way longer than you at your 60. How much more do you think you learn? There are obviously diminishing returns. I don't have any numbers but it got to be something like in the first 10 years you learn 100x, the next 10 you learn 15x, the next 10 you learn 5x, and so on. Also you need to keep up, a lot of things are changing, a lot of the "new things learned" will just replace the old ones that have changed. The majority of people can't even keep up with things as simple as "keeping your money at the bank does not pay anymore" or "day trading has always been bad but now it does not pay at all" after over 20 years... A last word, and it is soul crushing: I heard from a broker that they analysed the perf of the hundreds of thousands of clients they ever had and of the consistent losers (losing for 6 months) not a single one had turned into a winner (they're all short term, obviously you can't tell if someone is a winner or loser after just 6 months if they're long term and the market is in a downturn for 12). Not a single guy "learned" to be profitable. Out of hundreds of thousands. Not one. So hey, at least there is something positive here: you do not have to waste your time. You can actually know quite fast if you stand a chance or if it's best to quit. This is consistent with the french market authority (AMF) report as well as some academic papers showing that people do not "improve" over time and even lose more and more. Day traders (at least 85% of this guy clients) in 6 months had more than enough time for luck to even out, so that makes sense. By 6 months they'd have taken 250-500 trades minimum so their skill is quite certain by then, large enough sample size. These academics and regulators are a bit dense so forgive them, not their fault, investors DO IMPROVE. The regulators and "scientists" simply struggle with words, what they are trying to say is that investors that lose do not start winning, ever. But they all improve! Winners improve at winning and win more, losers improve at losing and lose more. Scientifically proven. In my personal opinion I think you don't even need 6 months to know if you'll make it. You know what brokers do? They mark some accounts as risk. It has nothing to do with years experience or account size. They look at 1 thing and 1 thing only. "Are this account winners bigger than its losers", if the answer is yes it gets marked as "risk" and the broker will hedge all of their positions in the market, if the answer is no the broker will just let it go to zero with a big smile on their face no need to hedge according to this broker there is literally 0 chance they will ever make money (makes sense, they close their winners before they can ever get dangerous). It's crazy how simple it is. Proves how useless it is to repeat these things. No one doesn't hear the basic tips. On day 1 investors will hear the words "follow the trend, cut your losses, don't day trade" and on day 1 will be decided if they are losers or not. They either go in the right direction or the wrong one. If they didn't listen on day 1 they won't listen on day 600, no matter how much proof is shown, no matter how often it has been repeated to them. This is crazy, do humans (99.99%) even possess self-awareness? Or are they just mindless NPCS that repeat something over and over no matter what? Someone has sweaty hands, is all shaky, and incapable of cutting their losses: there is no hope for them. There is a french expression (works with everything) "Pleutre un jour, pleutre toujours" (coward one day, coward every day/forever). People improve at all sorts of things but the hollywood wonderboy 180 story does not exist. There is an example of "Hollywood 180" story: Ryan Lochte is an American competitive swimmer and 12-time Olympic medalist. At 14 years old, his loss at the Junior Olympics changed his attitude. He later commented: "I suddenly said, 'I'm sick of losing'. After that I trained hard and I never lost there again.". Wow what a turnaround. He 👏 was 👏 already 👏 competing 👏 in 👏 the 👏 Olympics. Top 1% of the top 1%. He was competing in the Olympics without even training seriously. Duh. He didn't go from struggling kid bottom of the class that can't even beat some random average Joe to 12 olympic medals. "Boy is it hard I've been losing for 5 years I'm going to make it with the right indicators and the right course ok new years resolution" ye man sure good luck. Great traders are born, not made, but it takes decades of practice and learning for them to reach their best.
Editors' picks
TVC:DJIEducation
by MrRenev
62
BTC DragonFly Doji Candle on 2H JUST FoundThis may end up being a significant Dragonfly Doji if the symmetrical triangle pattern is still valid and a breakout to upside occurs in the next few 2H candles. Also on the 4H candle a Bullish Hammer candle is forming and will close in 11 mins.... the multiple bullish candles across different timeframes is surprising and interesting to see following the DragonFly Doji 1D and 5D candles that have closed already (and that I posted on as well - see below link) - marking a significant reversal pattern over the last 24 hours Here is the 4H Bullish Hammer Candle playing out (closing in 11 mins)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ich1baN
6
SPX: Let's think outside the box!Hello traders and investors! Let’s take a look at how the SPX is doing today! Yes, this is the only index which is about to break a new record high , and that’s incredible, but what if I tell you that we have better options around? In the end of this analysis, I’ll present to you one example of a trade we did, looking at other markets, outside of the radar of most investors. Let’s see. First, we have another example of a Trap Zone , in the 1h chart. The index is trapped between the resistance at the ATH and the 21 ema, which is going up. This squeezes the price, and eventually, SPX will explode , we just don’t know to which direction. If it defeats the ATH, it’ll just keep flying, but if it loses the 21 ema, then the 4,180 is the next support. Let’s see the daily chart: Yes, the index is performing amazingly well! We have a bull trend, and honestly, even if it drops again to the 4k I wouldn’t be surprised. But since March, we are going up roughly 10%. Which is not terrible, but if you know where to look, you may find some very impressive stocks in different markets. I already told you the potential of some Brazilian ADRs yesterday ( link below ), and I still believe that some ADRs will outperform the US market in the next few weeks/months. Probably we’ll see a retraction soon, but this doesn’t ruin the bullish momentum we have here. For instance, one of my recommendations was on CIG , which is going up almost 50% since my first call (Mar 5). This happens because, despite the similar performance seen on SPX and IBOV, we have several undervalued sectors, and we can take advantage of this distortion. I gave several calls on Brazilian ADRs to my group, and all of them are performing insanely well. Let’s think outside the box, if Warren Buffett likes to invest in other markets, like in Japan and Brazil, why wouldn’t you? Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and support this idea if you liked it! Thank you very much!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_Black
Value investing toolkitHello Investors! This educational post is about my toolkit developed for filtering out the almost perfect applicants for further analysis and research in the light of the principals of value investing. The work is based upon Warren Buffett's principals, calculations and recomendations. After publishing my two previous posts on the "Value investing chart set" and the "Intrinsic value calculation" I have received a lots of positive comments and feedbacks. Alongside the encouraging comments I have received quite a lots of requests to share the chart layout and the other scripts I am using while compiling the chart set I have introduced. I have promised to further develope both tools and come up with an even more powerfull toolkit. Now it is here! :-) I have combined the already published Intrinsic value calculation script with the Value investing chart set and further developed both on the way! This setup now is way more powerfull and exciting and is loaded with features as described below. First of all: here is the public link to the shared chart layout setup: www.tradingview.com Which company could be more adequate for the introduction of a value investing toolkit than Berkshire Hathaway, the company of Warren Buffett? It is not just an honor to use this ticker for educational purposes but aparently -as you can see during the analysis- it makes a perfect long term investment! What a surprise, right? :-) Here I will only explain all the new features of this chart as there is a very detailed explanation of both the Intrinsic value calculation script and the Value investing chart set in those two posts. You can find the links for them below. SO! Obviously the biggest developement is poping into your eyes right away: I have programed a value investing analysis tool into the chart so whenever you enter a ticker, the toolkit will supply you with an instant assesment on the given ticker. Of course it is a very basic tool and can only supply you with a preliminary overview on the company and does not, in any way substitute detailed and troughly research before you make any investment decission! - The assessment is based on the principals Warren Buffett, Ben Graham layed down. Some of Peter Lynch's work has been used, too. - The tool is using a rather conservative approach as the main goal is to maintain the capital invested and only additional to that to produce adequate gain on the long run In general: if you see a green labell with the text 'Possible subject for firther research' than you have found a company which passed a conservative test and is worth for further study. Needless to say that if you see a red label with the text 'XX NOT RECOMENDED XX' and a bunch of reasons below, why (overvalued - overpriced - debt risk) do not rush to your broker to put your life savings on it. To give you an example, here is how Google is evaluated today: In order to get the green light a company has to meet the following, rather strict criterias: - Valuation: The current price of the stock has to be below the Intrinsic value. (In this case $224 closing price vs. $426 for the Int. value) This line will precisely tell you how far the price is from the Intrinsic value, in other words, it will tell you your margin of safety when investing to the company on today's price level. In this example it is 90% - Pricing: The close price has to be below the "Buffetts limit price" indicator. To make it short Graham and Buffet stated that the number you get when multiplying the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio with the Price to book (P/B) ratio has to be below 22.5 in order to consider the given share cheap. This line will tell you how far the price is from the Buffetts limit price. This case it is 61%. ($224 vs. $361) - Debt risk: The company has to have much less debt than equity in order to qualify for long term value investing. The limit here is 1, meaning that the company has to have more equity than total debt. If this is not the case, the company fails the test. (This can be taken a little flexible as certain industries, like banking and insuarance by definition deploy a lots of debt instruments without risking their long term profitability or sustainability) In the example of Bershire this is 0,27 meaning that Berkshire has more than 3 times more equity than debt which is needless to say a more than perfect setup. (What do we expect from Mr. B, right?) These are the first 3 deciding criterias where a company can fail the test. Any of those turn to be out of range, you will get a red labell with a big fat NO recomendation. And most of the time this is going to be the case... As for the other points you will get more inside peek into the state of the company: - Price/book: this line will tell you if the price is still below the 1.5 times book value point. This is the highest price what value investors find comfortable paying. If the P/E value is very low for the share you might run into a situation where the Buffetts limit (P/E times P/B) is still low (below 22,5) but the stock is rather overpriced. You will not get a red labell here, only a 'Caution' warning and a grey label, instead of 'GOOD!' - Earnings: you will get an opinnion on the earnings here. The main criteria to get a 'GOOD!' evaluation is to have a growing level of EPS in the last 5 years. - Revenue: It is very important to invest in a company which is able to grow it's revenues steadily. This line will analyse that and will tell you if it wouldn't be so. - Profit & loss: Although it is not a deciding factor but a value investor should avoid investing to companies that were producing losses in the past decade or so. This line examines the last 5 years in this respect. - Dividend: The one and only point where Berkshire fails the test! :-) As Warren Buffett used to say: I am not paying income tax, Berkshire doesn't pay dividend... :-) Poor guy! Since we are investing for a very long term it is imperative that we top the gains we might have over the years with the 3-4% dividend p.a. As you can see here, there is a Warning! comment should the company fail in paying dividend. - Number of shares: Here you will see a quick analysis on the share buyback habits of the company/management. Again, what we examine here is wether the number of shares outstanding is less than 5 years ago or more which means that the company is buying back it's shares thus help investors to maintain equity. So entering your choosen ticker you should have an instant overview if the company can supply you with the value investing criterias or fails in this field. One very instructive exercise is to click through the leading blue chip stocks with this valuation toolkit and see how hugely overvalued they are at the moment. Some further developements I made in the mean time: - I have automated the calculation of the book value growth with finding the very first data point regardless when it happens. In this way you do not have to enter any parameter and you can simply click conveniently from one ticker to the other without reentering the needed inputs. Hopefully it doesn't matter which pricing structure you are in at TradingView. Free acounts will use 5 years data. - I have included a 4th pane just below the main pane. This shows the revenue of the company in 3 way: the white line is the anual values, the grey line is the quarterly data and I have also added the red line showing the TTM (trailing twelve month) figure in order to visualise the very recent trends in the revenue of the company. - The same way I have added the TTM figure on the lowest pane to the EPS figure, for the same reasons. - I have added explanatory labells to the right of the charts showing the actual value of the indicators, like the Intrinsic value, Buffetts limit, and book value. - Should either the Book value or the EPS figure be negative for the current year the script will issue a red label without any data regardless the other values as the Buffetts limit can not be calculated. (Negative numbers does not have square roots and that is required to calculate the limit price back from the P/E and the P/B values) One final remark: this toolkit is as complete as my knowledge is about value investing. It is a purely educational tool, not in any way intented to be investment advice. I do use this tool and for instance I do have position in this example company Bershire Hathaway at the time of writing this post. You have to make your own research and decision when it comes to investing your money. For further explanation on the Intrinsic value calculation please check my earlier post here: For further explanation on the Value investing chart set please check my earlier post here:
Editors' picks
NYSE:BRK.BEducation
by PeterNagy
108
Value investing chart setI would like to share the set of charts I use to find and analyse candidates for value investing. It is a rather dense and telling setup where you can find a lots of information. Please allow me to explain them one by one. (The chart is made on the company Nippon Tel. It is not a recomendation for anybody to buy Nippon Tel, I use this chart for educational purposes only) So: what can you see in this chart? A LOT! You can, in a glance asses if a company would qualify for value investing or should be avoided. From bottom up here are the panes, charts, indicators explained: There are 3 panes in this setup. In the lowest pane you will find the dividend information. There are 3 indicators telling a lot about the company's endurance and discipline. We can see that in our example - the company has never been missing a dividend payment over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company has been constantly raising the dividends over the last 15 years - the company has made an ever growing diluted EPS (earnings per share) over the last 15 years - the investment in the current price levels would yield 3,69% (bottom right scale) - the company has been very disciplined to pay out about 50% of the earnings per share and retain the rest within the company resulting growing book value In the middle pane you can see the net income (green territory) of the company and the number of common shares outstanding (blue line). We can see that in our example - the company has been constantly making profit over the last 15 years (even during the 08 crisis) - the company constanly buying its shares back thus helping the existing shareholders to keep/grow the equity per share Now the top, main pane tells the most about the company and its share. Here is what you can read from this chart: - the yellow line will show the Debt to Equity ratio What this is telling you is that the company is ran by vigiliant leaders who are keeping a close eye on the company's long and short therm debt and resist the temptation of today's really cheap loans. As Peter Lynch use to say: it is almost impossible to go bankrupt for a company without excessive debt. The ratio Ben Graham and Warren Buffet (also Peter Lynch) finds healthy here is a 1 to 2 debt to equity ratio. In other words, it is assuring if half of the equity covers all the debt of the company. In the case of our example the current value of this ratio is 0,415 which is a very good level of debt. (Industry specific figure!) The company has been constantly paying it's debt back over the last 15 years and although the figure has been growing during the last 2 years it is still under a acceptable level. - the light brown line is the book value or the shareholder1s equity per share Needless to say the for a value investor it is imperative that the book value is steadily growing, just like in our example from 8,8 to 21. What is even more important is that the current price is below the book value per share or in other words a buyer in these price levels gets a 1 on 1 value for his bucks. Just to give you a comparison: today this value for Apple (AAPL) is 30 to 1! So you pay $ 30 for $ 1 of equity when you buy Apple stock. In our example the book value of this company is steadily growing and the price is currently below the book value. - the pink line on the pane is my "invention" as this is the intrinsic value graph which is calculated by the script I have posted already here. I would not explain in details here, please check out my post and all the comments below it for details. This line shows you what would be a fair value of the stock if you take all the dividends and the book value growth that will happen in the next coming 10 years and discount it back to today's value using the 10 years US Note's yield. This is called the intrinsic value of the company and calculating it is rather art than science, says Buffett. In the case of the example company the Intrinsic Value is around 43 while the price is a bit above 20 which means that a value investor has a 100% margin of safety when buying this stock. - the green/red line is another calculated line: Warren's limit price Ben Graham and Warren Buffett uses a rule of thumb saying that the PE (price earning ratio) multiplied by the Price to Book ratio can not result a higher value than 22.5 to be considered a cheap stock. Here I use the Diluted Earnings figure to calculate the PE ratio to take all the convertible securities (options, prefered stocks, warrants, etc) into consideration. This line shows if the stock can be valued as cheap or overpriced. In the case of our example the current price is under the limit price and can be considered an underpriced stock. As you can see there are lots of fundamental informations you can visualise and asses with this chart setup in order to pick your winning stocks for value investing.
Editors' picks
FWB:NTTEducation
by PeterNagy
29
Elon Musk has overtaken Warren BuffettIn this video I am thinking out loud about some exciting things happening in markets. Especially how Elon Musk has outdone Warren Buffett. That's right. Tesla's market cap is now bigger than Berkshire Hathaway's market cap. I never saw that coming. I am not sure why, perhaps the potential growth continues to astound people. For the really bold thinkers, maybe Tesla will one day merge with SpaceX and it will become much more than a car company. Perhaps its solar capabilities will continue to take off. We shall see. Later in the video I also brainstorm about the comparison of cryptos total market cap and other companies like Visa and JP Morgan. The old companies. Do they still have a chance to succeed or is that it for them? All comments welcome.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by scheplick
23
5 rules that made Warren Buffett so rich by James AltucherI posted an idea about the Myth of Warren Buffett Buy & Hold a while ago. Here is a general description of how he became so rich by James Altucher. James Altucher is a wall street investor with a lot of hair. You might know him from recently saying New York was dead forever on television, and some actor insulted him on tv because of this. You might also know him from his books and articles, including one of my favorite articles which is him ranting on daytrading explaining why it is so distasteful. He used to be a day trader in the 90s when it was in its early days and made some money but obviously far less than just holding the NDX that went up over 2000%, and he hated it. And finally most people on tradingview from before the 2020 new wave of investors probably know him from defending Bitcoin and selling a "trading masterclass" to crypto "investors". He wrote a book (or maybe more than 1?) about Buffett, articles, and in particular a complete article with the 5 "rules"/"secrets" I described, in a Quora answer to the question "How did Warren Buffett become so rich?". The answer is of course much more complete than the summary I wrote up. Warren Buffett obviously has some skill, he outperformed the market even early on before he was famous and got great deals, he has found and held onto great winners and almost always eliminated the losers (Berkshire was his greatest mistake) but it is interesting to see how saint grandpa aw-shucks and his folk wisdom actually rips the competition to pieces. "Diversification is for idiots" coming from a guy that took thousands of trades and is always on the lookout for an opportunity to make easy money. He says he could be making 50% a year easily on a small account. From these penny stocks selling at BELOW liquidation price? We know what companies he bought, he never just gambled it all on 1. Just bet on several decent ones, get rid of the losers and keep the one that continues its trend up. A quote by Warren Buffett "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire's tax rate. For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That's the only reason to build them. They don't make sense without the tax credit." Also makes him look kind and caring to the population. There is a good reason big globalist businesses and rich people are all pro socialism, high taxes, and lockdown. In California I remember the government banning small food trucks in favor of big brick and mortar chains, for some BS reason as always. They also shot independent contractors in the leg forcing them to be wageslaves. High taxes keep the poor people down at the bottom, while a large portion of the poor people - those with the abstraction capacities of a potato - cheer 😑, so the rich even look like they are kind and caring. A bucket of crabs surrounded with giant rich people laughing and dipping crab pinchers in sauce while pushing the crabs about to escape at the bottom saying it's for their own good... High taxes, socialism, lockdown and so on are good for business not just because they keep the unwashed masses at the bottom. Amazon made record profits. But more importantly, these multinationals have competition. They will get better deals, bigger revenue, and even a monopoly, if they can not jsut keep the others at the bottom but DESTROY those that climbed to millionaire or upper middle class status, even just middle class. Goodbye competition. More money and more power. Twitter recently just went full "we're running this show now" and banned a NY Post showing an email that proves Biden knew about his son & Ukraine. This disgusting tentacular social network is banning anyone that tries to mention this story, they are shutting it down entirely. And since everyone gets their info from those sites... Twitter is also Antifa means of communication but I digress. I don't see how any government can completely enforce high taxes without collapsing the entire economy, but even if they magically got billionaires to pay 70%, it is still a small price to kill all competition and be an all powerful overlord of a monopoly that can really take advantage of their power and of their wealth and exploit desperate people (cattle). So you end up with all powerful sociopathic megabillionaire oligarchs running monopolies WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE (FOOLS!) that decide who makes the laws (gee I wonder if they'll pick people that make laws that go against their interests). If you think it's all fine they have good intentions (lol) even if they had, if fools can get manipulated by 1 group they can be as easily manipulated by another. Let's not forget Hitler came to power with the support of YES Antifa & the communist party, even Röhm was a big socialist with dreams of free stuff. Goebbels started as a marxist in his youth... Manipulating crowds of idiots is overpowered can god nerf it or something? Optimists are blissfully ignorant idiots. Pessimists are depressed sad people that miss all opportunities. Adapters are winners. Can't beat them? Join them. Either you are a superman supergenius with higher standards - in which case you'll be a hated arrogant jerk that thinks he is better than every one - or you become a manipulative shark that does not play fair. If this is what society demands then that's how you win. And the crowd will even cheer for you. No one is more celebrated and sanctified by the public than Elon Musk...
NYSE:BRK.AEducation
by MrRenev
3
proxima subida 8% con liberbanktras la compra de acciones por parte de bank of america y el contrato sponsor con el real madrid en la temporada 20/21 liberbank se recupera con fuerza. vemos subida 8% para los proximos dias. si supera .24 subirá con fuerza. liberbank a diferencia del santander u otros bancos ya lleva varios años reestructurando y reduciendo oficinas. a proposito. quien ha comprado acciones de bank of america ultimamente? el mismisimo warren buffett. tiene sentido? leave comments below
LLong
by atipeonline
BRK.b valuationAt over 19x forward earnings it would appear BRK.b stock isn't exactly cheap right now. In fact, a fair valuation model (DCF) suggests it could be valued at this price by year end 2020 based on long term earnings growth estimates of 7%. Looking at earnings estimates for 2019 gives projections for 10.40 EPS. A long term average market multiple of 17x suggests $177 valuation. The 2020 EPS estimate of 11.6 at a market mulitiple of 17x would imply a valuation around 200 by year end 2020. With no dividend yield investors are not 'getting paid to wait'. Holding this stock is all about making capital gains. Meanwhile the downside volatility doesn't do the long investor any favors. I'm sure the theory is Berkshire can reinvest earnings better for long term growth rather than returning earnings to shareholders in div yields. But this week Buffett admits he's sitting on billions in idle cash because market valuation has been too high to justify making any new large acquisitions. What do you think? At 19x forward earnings is BRK.b a good investment right now to buy and hold for the next few years?
NYSE:BRK.B
by dime
1
The Secrets to Forex & Miller's Planet (pt.3)You must read the preceding parts first. This one is a real doozy. Watch your reading comprehension levels go up in realtime. ------------------------------ "Very, very few people could appreciate the bubble. That's the nature of bubbles – they're mass delusions." - Buffett Last time we talked about how people who speculate are inherently delusional and are all in the process of losing; usually just money. The only way to 'win at losing' is to survive the delusion game by understanding the players and their psychology; not by guessing if price will be higher or lower in 10 years. When you survive, you are rewarded; all the money from big losers goes to the remaining players at the table. That's the derivatives, near zero-sum market in a nutshell. Sometimes players take their winnings and walk away, sometimes new players join the table. But in the end, 'the bucks are all that matter, everything else is just conversation.' The charts, the econ news, the geopolitical shocks... they only matter insofar as they influence the psychology of the players at the table. This is why you have to align your trading philosophy with player psychology first, and at the same time, reduce your risk presence when you take 'bets' in the market. Think of 'reducing risk presence' as surviving or holding on and think of 'surviving' as taking a piece of the pie from the losers when they hit zero. Remember, markets existed long before Adam Smith 'invented' capitalism. The original merchants and traders achieved longterm profitability by two methods: collusion, or by navigating wars, famine, oppression... Things haven't changed as much as you might think. Chapter 1: The Margin of Psychology Now, after the 2 parts, you've probably had enough of this distilled pseudo-academic fluff and you're ready for the valuable details. Too bad chief, here's another fluffy paragraph. Again, get used to losing. In the last part, I ended it by questioning if disorder can be consistent enough to be orderly. Now, we don't have to assume an orderly interpretation of disorder. It's proven by the presence of profitable traders/investors. The household names like Buffett and Soros. They operated, to a degree, on something investors call a 'margin of safety.' Which is: 'the intrinsic value versus the current or last price offer.' This is similar to what I've been presenting all along, only I disregard this Plato-like intrinsic value notion; please refer to my part 2 sectioned 'Emergence of Estimation' and read through 'Fact, Fiction, & Forecast' if you want the full take on this. Using fair value, or the center of price gravity, or more simply: 'resilient value;' especially when we are talking about derivatives and forex, serves as a better frame of mind. Because.. value only exists in the mind in a near zero-sum game. But thanks to psychology, there is some element of order present in the otherwise disorderly markets. You can worry about the ethical issues of big zero-sum money games later, after you can afford to read Das Kapital on your yacht. Chapter 2: Counting Cost I have spent a long time trying to find reliable patterns or orderly events in derivative markets. I have used or tested over 3000 indicators, experts, or scripts. So many that my MT4 terminal stopped showing them and I had to start an indicator genocide worthy of a binding UN resolution. Countless all-nighters across both small and large forums evaluating both the popular and wildly unconventional strategies and theories of forex. Books, videos, etc. 4, 5, 6 years and on. The stranger and more contrarian the idea, the more interested I became. More interesting to me than the idea itself was the line of thinking that created the idea in the first place. Why did retail traders think this way? Why did commercial traders think this other way? I was able to both regard and disregard the most qualified, and do the same for the least qualified. It's not a surprising lesson, but you have to go out of your comfort zones and destroy your biases to learn valuable things. Peter Thiel's contrarian thinking runs on this kinda stuff. Think about what has happened in the past several years. Contrarian thinking can turn idiots into geniuses these days. Chapter 3: Hidden vs Too Close to See Eventually, I stopped looking for a hidden far-off solution and started looking closer. You ever search your house to find your lost car keys only to later realize it was in your jacket pocket all along? Too poor to have a house, a car, or a jacket? Well, then keep reading. So I started looking at the in-betweens. What's as close as possible to the decision making agent itself? The first finding is that charts rarely have clear patterns, but human minds often do. From then on, research became straightforward and fruitful. How do I turn that theory into something that makes money, or at least doesn't lose money? I found the major candidates, the independent variables that create these flashes of order, these predictable events or parameters. It's not perfectly rigid, but its the next best thing in the highly volatile world of forex. Chapter 4: Executing 66 Orders First off, it's not as simple as a single mind's biases resulting in huge moves on a chart. To use a basic military analogy, you have to think in terms of a chain of command. From a few big 'minds' to many small 'minds.' Or, you have to follow the killchain step by step. From psychological origination to execution. Obviously, execution is when the order is filled and liable to p&l. We have lots of charting and analytical tools for market movement and execution. But what is the origination? How do you properly connect them? Can you chart or summarize origination and its 'plane?' So far I've talked a lot about psychology, but not much about specific biases relevant to forex. Or how a collection of 'psychologies' in the 'real world' might constitute a broader social factor, which, as a unit of analysis, goes on to influence markets in predictable ways. Does a commercial fund have biases? Does a central bank have biases? Does Wall Street have different biases than the City? Four broad but related questions: What is psychological origination and why do social factors matter? Based on the above, how do you setup or build an 'orderly' chart to find that resilient value? How do you use that knowledge to better manage risk and reduce uncertainty? And by extension, how exactly does that make you a more profitable trader? These questions will be fully addressed across the next several parts (maybe 7 or 8 more). I'm going to skip a deep dive into the first question for now, so you don't get too bogged down on the abstract thinking stuff, and instead mix it a bit with something familiar and more visual in question 2. For the rest of this article, we gotta talk timeframes and contracts first. Chapter 5: Murph's Law Time matters in forex. It matters a lot, and in ways some of you probably have yet to consider. In markets and finance, time shapes the parameters of most contracts. I would use a long analogy from Interstellar and Miller's planet (just watch the movie), but the key here is that: SOME RISK IS NEARLY GUARANTEED (written into the contract) while SOME RISK IS TIED TO SPECULATION ONLY. It's the difference between limited risk that is insured by the past versus unlimited risk that exists only via the future (you can have both as well). Up until now, we have dealt with the second, and not the first. Forex standards and practices (de facto contract rules), give us the first. Let me introduce timeframes, and then return to this so everything connects neatly. There are many different approaches to categorizing timeframes. By the common candlebar duration (1h, 4h, D; in other words it's categorized specifically by the 24hr clock); group A , or by abstract accumulation (like renko or heatmaps or orderbook data); group B . Now, the latter is a loose fit for a timeframe concept, it can be discrete and confusing, but you can argue 'realtime' or 'all-time' as a timeframe in itself. I won't be discussing realtime very much, and I strongly recommend you read the disclaimer far below if you are a crypto trader or have access to prime data or level two data in general. IF you are a forex trader that fits into group B, let's say a Renko trader, then you need not worry about the indicators or models I present. However, I've only known one successful Renko trader, and he had custom designed analytics. So good luck with Renko, gentlemen. I will focus on the group A category of timeframes: OHLC, Henken, line, etc. Everything that follows will be based on those. Chapter 6: Don't Fail Science Class The more you think of markets by real life principles, the clearer everything becomes. Which is why I want to explain timeframes by analogy. You could argue that markets share some basic similarities, at least from a layman's impression, to classical and quantum mechanics. The smaller the timeframe, the more random and chaotic they appear. And vice-versa. The center of price gravity at higher timeframes is more resilient to chaotic bits of new information. It's more certain . To use Bohm's term, you could argue its 'enfolding' or 'enfolded.' That while the general state of things is a chaotic flowing river, whirlpools with a set of persistent parameters can still exist in those rivers. All this really means is that different timeframes/sessions/days require different indicators and/or applications of those indicators. In addition, a full risk management approach takes into account the pairs/currencies chosen as well since their behavior may vary (choosing the river), and the nature of the contract itself (does it have a waterfall or extend forever?). Simple summary: some things are more certain at long-term timeframes and some things are more uncertain at short-term timeframes . Most of you will already know this. Chapter 7: Slaves to the Timezones When I'm talking about short-term timeframes and long-term timeframes, I mean intra-day versus weekly or monthly. Technically you could trade something like the 4h or daily within a single day. (but to avoid confusion, I want to focus on timeframes as the periods from which you open and close positions, not the duration of the candlebar). In other words, opening and closing positions within the 24 hour period (from open to market close). Versus. Positions held across multiple days/weeks. This is very important because they are effectively different types of market contracts because of the risk of rollover. (unless you have an Islamic account) In general: IF YOU ARE HOLDING POSITIONS ACROSS MULTIPLE WEEKS, you need to have either a genius technical or fundamental system OR, you need to be designing your trades with carry conditions in mind. 99% of you will fit the latter. Inevitably, this means your long term risk management must be quite different than short term risk management; particularly in the weighting of seasonality models and interest rates. I'll explain this stuff in the next article, but for now, make a selection: Imagine owning a stock that pays you a dividend (😏), now imagine owning a stock that pays no dividend (😴), and now imagine owning a stock where you pay the company a dividend (😂). Keep your "obvious" selection in mind, because it's gonna upset retail paradigms when I tell you why you're trading the wrong pairs on the wrong timeframes. See you next time. ------------------------------------ DISCLAIMER: Now, I should've mentioned this earlier but IF you are a cryptocurrency trader, and some of you reading this may very well be, let this be clear: I did not design these articles for your consumption. Though crypto is arguably a currency, it's core mechanics are different, as is the psychology of the players involved and the market structure. The legal, tax, and broader financial components vary (the nature of the contracts, the timezone/session influences). Indeed, regulation is the main fundamental in cryptocurrency right now, making it a market potentially susceptible to a near-total collapse (at least for blocks of investors) depending on the providence of your broker or income tax obligations.
Education
by CountofCoins
Neutral on OXY, but intriguedAs you can see by the descending trendline, the decline in OXY over the past year has actually been somewhat organized. The share price is now at a level not seen since November 2008, which leaves me tempted to initiate a small position as the risk/reward seems favorable. My suggested stop would be anywhere from $37 to $37.50. Obviously there are a lot of storylines at play with OXY, but insiders have been buying, Berkshire's been buying, and most analysts' price targets are well above where the share price is now. I'm intrigued.
NYSE:OXY
by NickWA
Apple, Warren Buffett, Why Rich People Are Long Term InvestorsShort sellers continue to get rekt by shorting a "Bull Market". Warren Buffett has shown to us time and time again the only way to be rich and be super wealthy is Long Term Investing. Short term traders are not in the top list and will never be, because market timing and trying to short a never ending bull market is a pointless things to do. Eventually market will top and reach the peak of the bubble, the easiest thing to do is to hold cash and put money in something else. Short selling are only for losers.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by UnknownUnicorn735418
2
BRK.B Defensive after earningsSeasonal defensive BRK.B has bounced off the 200MA. It fell last week (w/e May 10) despite beating on earnings. There were no guidance issues, but it was caught up in the trade war sell-off, despite being a defensive little affected by this, and by being overbought. I suggest entry at 208 ($1 below market). We are relying on the rising channel (note the very precise channel touches) to avoid a repeat of Feb-Mar price action, hence the tight stop of 203, just below last week’s low. Targeting 224, the previous ATH gives a 3.2:1 trade.
NYSE:BRK.BLong
by adatherton