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Macro Monday 3 - SPDR Homebuilders XHBMacro Monday SPDR Home builders ETF (XHB) This equal weighted index tracks 35 holdings of the homebuilders segment of the S&P Total Market Index (TMI) and is spread across large, mid and small cap stocks. These comprise of the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Home furnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industries. The Chart - AMEX:XHB The Chart can be used as a leading indicator for the US housing market as the stocks in the XHB comprise of companies that provide the materials and products to build new houses and renovate homes. These products are higher up the supply chain and sold before construction commences or during. In the past the XHB chart provided a significant advance warning of the 2007 Great Financial Crisis which is illustrated in red on the chart. A similar negative divergence would be worth watching out for in the future. At present the performance of XHB is ahead of the S&P500. XHB is 5% from ATH’s at $87.00. This is in keeping with how this chart leads the market as it includes products and materials required for new builds and renovations. I would expect some resistance at the ATH which could act as a decision point for price. A break above the ATH with support established on it would be positive for price. A rejection off the ATH or a false break out and we would need to monitor price closely to see can price find support on the 10 Month SMA. If a lower high occurs on XHB (like in 2007), this could be an early warning signal of downward price pressure to follow on the S&P500. As noted on the chart the average performance post MACD cross is a price increase of 80%; - We are currently at $83.50 which is a price increase of 21% from the recent MACD cross. - A revisit of the ATH at $87.00 would be a price increase of 26% from the recent MACD cross. - An 80% average increase would lead us to the top of the parallel channel (see chart). - None of the above percentages are guarantees, we are just looking at probabilities. Factoring in that we are above the 10 month moving average and that it is sloping upwards, I remain positive about the continued performance of XHB, although I would not be surprised to see resistance at the ATH of $87.00 and a pull back to the 10 month SMA would be standard. If a weekly candle closed below the 10 month SMA, this is where I would start to get concerned and would then start to lean bearish. If we got follow through lower after that point, this would be alarm bells for me. We can draw a correlation here to the first Macro Monday chart I shared on July 3rd, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index DJ:DJT which also established a lower high as the S&P500 CBOE:SPX continued its ascent. Both the XHB and the DJT demonstrated they can be leading economic indicators by establishing lower highs prior to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis. PUKA
Editors' picks
AMEX:XHB
by PukaCharts
22
Industrials are holding best, which stock is better?All these 3 stocks are leaders in the Building Materials industry. NASDAQ:USLM is the clear leader between the 3, breaking from its 2022 highs earlier. The technicals between NYSE:MLM and NYSE:VMC are very similar but, the fundamentals are another story. Martin Marietta NYSE:MLM , produces crushed stone/sand/other aggregates for infrastructure/commercial/residential construction markets. It has a +9% and +13% 3-year EPS Growth rate and Sales Growth rate respectively, while NYSE:VMC has -8% in EPS and +20% in Sales. I prefer stocks with both EPS and sales trending together. So, NASDAQ:USLM and NYSE:MLM are my choices.
NYSE:MLMLong
by dpuleo19
BLDR on a consistent trend higherBLDR is part of the construction industry and has had consistent gains over YTD in the range of 95 % with favorable beats on earnings estimates and increases in revenue. Volume has been rising in the past month. In the past when BLDR pulled back to the blue SMA100 line it then reversed quite well and resumed its move higher. At present, BLDR is on a pullback which provides an opportunity for a long entry at the current price where the SMA20 SMA50 and SMA 100 are converged. I will take a long trade here as I see BLDR to be consistent in its move up and setup for entry with a pullback.
NYSE:BLDRLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
70p / 80p mid-long term - £142m cash / £142m mcapA risky play of course but after losing over 80% of it's value due to JPMorgan selling, Covid 19 & a slowdown in sales, company has sold 2 assets & have at present around £142m in cash I believe a lot of the turmoil is already priced in ahead of results. Mcap is at £142m which means their business is valued at cash level. Very undervalued considering their cash level & staff coming back to work. This business should be worth at least 60-70p I believe based on their previous numbers. Nethertheless a slight risk at present period due to covid 19 but mid- long term this company should recover well as sales move back up. I will start scaling out around 40-50p to protect profits but will leave some shares to ride the rest of the way. 70p - 80p ULTIMATE TARGET New CEO to turnaround the company with experience of doing so to others. Dividend most likely will also be back to attract new investors in months to come. April 30th: In the last week, as demand started to increase across the industry, the Group has commenced re-opening selected sites across its Distribution and Roofing businesses to provide greater support to our customers and offer increased access to our products and services. 15 sites are now open across our Distribution business and 20 sites are open across our Roofing business. The Group is currently planning for the majority of its sites to be open by mid-May.
LSE:SHILong
by vcm11
6