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Why is there no direction in the price of the Bitcoin?Acutally, so many outside influences make it difficult to predict which way the price of Bitcoin will go. Bulls and bears keep the price well in a balance and it remains inside a narrow bandwidth with very low volumes. Let us try to see the whole picture. I list here the main fundamentals and present a chart, which shows the partly interfering trends and signals. What are the fundamentals? • News from South Korea about banning cryptocurrency trading in the future. • News from China about banning cryptocurrency mining and verification. • Right now, China hosts 80% of the computer capacity for the Bitcoin blockchain. Will operation of the Bitcoin come to a temporarily halt? Will investors lose Bitcoins? What about the mining contracts? How long will it take to replace this huge computer capacity? • News from USA that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth over 300 million US-Dollars. • News from Bulgaria that they will sell seized Bitcoins worth 3.5 billion US-Dollars. • Because of the newly implemented high transaction fees, will Bitcoin survive as a payment coin? What can we read in the chart? • There is a red dashed line at 14129. Below that line, the scenario is bearish and above that line, the scenario is bullish. • There is a triangle, drawn in dark-blue color. Bitcoin is actually at point 4. From there, it should continue in direction of point 5 and there, it should outbreak on the upper side of the triangle. • However, we see that the price moves in direction of point 4 again instead of point 5. Will there be a downside breakout today? In the last few weeks, we experienced already enough downside breakouts. • Since January 7, 2018, the value of the Bitcoin moves down inside a channel with blue dotted borderlines. • On the same time, it is also within a sideward channel build by the red dashed line and the yellow dashed line. It is not very likely that we will see a decisive move in either direction. I expect over the weekend low volumes and the price oscillating inside the square that is built by the blue downward channel and the sideward channel between the red and the yellow line. However, we have to be prepared for a downward outbreak, which would result in a free fall down to the level of 5568. This could happen if some traders would start selling in panic in a market with low volumes. In this case, use the opportunity for buying cheap Bitcoins. What is the best strategy in such a quiet and boring market? Two subjects are becoming important in such a quiet market: • Market Corrections • Portfolio Erosion Goldbug1 has written a great article about both subjects. I recommend reading it. Personally, I learned important things about how to trade such a difficult market. It is really worth reading about his strategies. Please click on the chart below for reading it. I wish you good luck, happy trading and a great weekend. Luckyhelper
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by luckyhelper
Strange movements in the Bitcoin's price.This is a chart of the Bitcoin's price in USD of the last two weeks. We can see unusual patterns in it that makes it difficult to predict the direction of the price of the Bitcoin for the next few weeks. While there is enough evidence to forecast a bullish development of the Bitcoin, the bullish forecast did not get confirmed. A triangle is a formation that is usually followed by a continuation of the ongoing trend. I did expect the price to exit triangle A in direction of the blue arrow. Instead, the price broke the lower border in direction of the red arrow. Following this downwards outbreak, the price of the Bitcoin went up from 12050 to 17234. There, it was already exhausted and started to move downwards, building another triangle B, which lets us expect a downtrend. While the uptrend is still valid, an outbreak of triangle B on the lower side of triangle B would change the outlook of the Bitcoin massively. Instead a comfortable journey up to 22500, we would see a free fall as deep as 5568. Why is this uncertainty? There are three forces influencing the price of the Bitcoin: 1. There are the investors who are interested into a permanently rising value of the Bitcoin. 2. There is a growing demand for Bitcoins. As there is a maximum of 21 million of coins, the growing demand for the coin will increase its price on the long-term. 3. The governments of the USA and Bulgaria own sized Bitcoins for 3 billion US-Dollars. They want to sell them and this will give some serious pressure on the Bitcoin and may even lead to a "massacre" of its price. This constellation will lead to erratic and unforeseen price movements of the Bitcoin in the next months. Whenever many buyers are on the market, the governments will flood the market with their sized Bitcoins. This makes it difficult to predict the price and otherwise reliable chart signals may not work during this time.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by luckyhelper
3
Bitcoin at the crossroadBitcoin is at the crossroad. It is swinging around 14642 while the Stochastic indicator suggests that the long-term uptrend is still intact. As long as the Stochastic indicator is above the blue dotted trend line, we can assume a bullish scenario for BTCUSD. However, once that blue dotted trendline will be broken to the downside, a very bearish scenario will take over with a target of 5568 USD per Bitcoin. We know that the governments of the United States of America and of Bulgaria confiscated Bitcoins worth more than 3 billion US-Dollars. They probably want to sell them all. www.coindesk.com The price of the Bitcoin will mainly depend on how they flood the market with their confiscated Bitcoins during the next few months. I expect a high volatility and many good opportunities for buying cheap Bitcoins.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by luckyhelper