The MA 20, The RSI, and Another Bull RunWelcome back to my new long-term analysis. After we called the exact bottom in our last analysis, I am now showing what might happen next with the BTC price.
Today, we are looking at the monthly BTC/USD Chart.
With every BTC halving (dashed vertical lines) the chart is above the orange line, the monthly MA20 . The monthly MA20 decides whether the overall sentiment can be seen as bearish or bullish. A break above the MA20 after a successful crossing of the RSI (purple line in the RSI chart) and the MA7 of the RSI (yellow line in the RSI chart), sets the start of a new bull run as seen in 2019 and 2015. I’ve marked these important points with green circles . For visibility reasons, I left out the example from 2015, but you can easily recreate and see that it applies to that year as well. Whenever the chart is above the MA20, it doesn’t fall below it again until the beginning of the next bear cycle (the Covid-Crash remains an exception, as always).
So, the logical summary to determine a new bull run is the following:
Initial position: Chart has bottomed out (see my last analysis to find out how to detect the BTC bottoms) but is still below the MA20.
Step 1. RSI crosses the MA7 RSI to the upside.
Step 2. Chart crosses the MA20 to the upside.
Et voilà, we found the new beginning of the next bull run.
But where do we close our long positions?
Again, with the help of the RSI crossing the MA7 RSI we can also determine not the exact cycle top, but a precise area where we should close our long positions. When the RSI is in the oversold area (RSI above 80) and also crosses the MA7 RSI, but this time to the downside, we can consider the bull run over. I’ve marked these important points with red circles .
And, what’ next?
I did a little forecast to show what I think the future price movement for BTC can look like. We are facing a small mini-bull-run up to ~45-50k (~Dec 2023). After that, the price gets rejected quite heavily and stays close to the MA20, but always remains above it, until BTC is ready to take off for the next bull run which I think, based on the past timings, is around December 2024. The bull run top can be reached within half a year and could bring the price up to 170k, if not even more.
