BTC bull case and automatic rally .5 Fib to 40k.Looks like BTC has few resistances to cross to reach 40k before starting the new phase of bull run.
2024 is next halving, so bull market will start after few months of halving.
2025 and 2026 will be a banger for BTC, as market cap is already huge, top might be less than 100k if we do not hit hyper-inflation before 2025.
Looks like a good opportunity to buy few blue chip coins and keep them for 2 to 3 years to make huge profits. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Bullcase
$AMD Semis need to lead for bullsThe bull case is still in play as AMD although down considerably from 165 high , is still holding strong support at 100 and currently trading above its 200MA
AMD has been building next level of support at 113 with a recent thrust to 124, which makes sense considering the 200MA is a VERY important level for the bulls and bears alike.
So long as AMD holds 100 , and continues to find buyers 113 zone, my bias is for a breakout of this downward channel to the upside.
A break below and there will be bigger issues , i.e. I'd imagine this will only happen if the market is down considerably from a catalyst event (although inflation, rates, war, supply chain issues, all have yet to cause a mass liquidation so I'm not sure what will... Nuclear War ? I pray not )
I do know for sure that any melt up that does occur, I would be looking at AMD / NVDA / SMH / MU to be strong movers to the upside.
Let's see ! I'm long April calls and will add so long as we hold 100
Update on BTC USD following the retest of 200 day MALooks like the 3rd wave DID in fact consist of a 3, 4, 5 on the Elliot wave. I am still holding onto this 200 day MA as support theory, while respecting the fib retracement levels at 46901 and 46232.
This would be the 3rd time we test / breach the 200 day MA in the last month. If we hold these levels again and start our reversal, I expect the whale bears will be returning to the market just in time to kick off Q1 2022 and a nice 3 month bull run.
What side are you on? Bull or bear?
#SeekingConfluence #BullWhale #BearWhale #WhaleWhales
BTC Bull Case - 200 day MA as the major supportMy BTC Bull Hypothesis.
- BTC breached the 200 day MA briefly, and rallied a proper 5 wave impulse. However, the attention to detail is important as we have 2 clear impulse patterns to count here.
- A closer look will show the fib extension targets of 2.618 on the most recent move up, and the larger wave 1 shown with the Elliot wave drawn.
- The lower 2.618 extension marks the top of a wave 3 of the impulse.
- The higher 2.618 coincides with the gap that has yet to be retested up to 53k.
The current corrective move (wave 4) must hold above the following for the hypothesis to remain valid:
- 200 day MA (most important)
- $48356.70 (top of the wave 1)
- $48004 (0.618 retracement of the 3rd wave
Conclusion: Most likely path for BTC is to hold the 48350 level, rally to 53k area, then do a proper correction of that whole move from $45557 to $53kish area. Following this correction, we should see a massive 3rd wave rally back to the high 50ks.
#SeekingConfluence
$CLOV Bear Base Bull Outlook$CLOV continues to move within the symmetrical triangle while being encapsulated by a bearish channel. As we approach the end of the symmetrical triangle, I am expecting a breakout to by next week, as early as Monday.
I believe the upcoming earnings on 03/01/2021's post-market to be a major catalyst to which direction the breakout will be.
Bear Case: In the event that we get a negative earnings surprise, $CLOV will be headed further down into unchartered territory. The sell-off will likely be exacerbated by weakening market conditions and the lack of PR by Chamath Palihapitiya, Vivek Garipalli, and Clover Health Corp. Throw in the FUD created by the Hidenburg Research's short-seller report, and you have a recipe for a sell-off into the $7 and $8 territory. How soon we recovery from that will likely depend on the impact of the fiscal stimulus, whether there are any positive news released by Clover/Chamath/Vivek, and how long it takes for the short-seller report to be cleared up by the SEC.
Base Case: Earnings data come out as expected and there was no deviation compared to what was expected. Due to technical factors such as RSI pointing towards $CLOV being incredibly oversold, volume picking up again, and $CLOV currently being in an area of multiple huge support level, we see a push back to the dynamic resistance of the bearish channel. However, breaking above could prove to be challenging without positive sentiments around $CLOV. We might start consolidating between $10 to $11 or even re-test the dynamic support of the bearish channel.
Bull Case: Clover Health Corp releases a positive earnings surprise and Clover/Chamath/Vivek takes the opportunity to boost PR to create more positive sentiments around $CLOV. The aforementioned, supported by bullish technical indicators, pushes $CLOV back to the dynamic resistance of the bearish channel, subsequently breaking beyond it and holding above the bearish channel. As the fiscal stimulus comes in, we see money flowing into the stock market, and $CLOV continue to grow towards $14 and beyond.
TLDR: $7-$8 Bear Case, $10-$11 Base Case, >$14 Bull Case.
This is not investment advice so please do your own due diligence!
Support this idea with likes and share your thoughts below.
Zillow bull-case idea!Since its all-time-high on 2/2/2020 at $66; which was reached due to a 12% jump from earnings... ZG has fallen 50%
As we have seen in the past few volatile weeks, some stocks have outperformed due to the idea they will benefit from the COVID.
For example:
People buying masks, hand sanitizer (CLX)
People are staying home to work (ZM)
People are staying home streaming (NFLX)
People are stocking up on durables, non-perishables (COST, WMT, PG, CPB)
Pharmaceuticals are producing cures/vaccines/diagnostic tests (CODX, GILD)
With interest rates as low as they have ever been; housing is becoming very cheap, allowing people to buy more, and more expensive houses.
With the latest trend of staying home, plus people wanting to buy homes. I believe Zillow (ZG) could be a gainer.
--> Set tight limits, as negative momentum has been killing the bulls.
Rest up this weekend, happy trading!